Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Ref Iraq: The baby-killing sanctions that did not bring about the stated result were getting to be a moral liability. I suppose only old-timers can remember Albright's "Yes, it's worth it" moment. As Saddam had once been our boy during the Iran-Iraq War back when Cold War proxy wars abounded, but had got too big for his britches, I suppose Bush and Blair also found him both offensive and embarrassing. I always thought the best (and kindest) thing we could have done is go in, take out Saddam and his goons, install a nicer and more beholden dictator and go home. But that would have been Politically Incorrect and "too colonial". Perhaps they were also ideologically-driven and actually believed all that democracy stuff? Did they really think they could make the world over in our image, buy it a Coke and it would be all honey bees and apple trees from there in some utopian End of History promised land? Only any fool could see it would be a disaster in Iraq. The one thing that worked there was making an example out of a dictator who flirted with WMD (got Gaddafi to shape up, for one). But then we undid that with Libya. So... I have no clue.How many ordinary Iraqis died because Bush and Blair, for reasons only known to them, decided that invading Iraq was the way to.go. The previous decade, on the pretext that it was aimed at Saddam's WMD, sanctions were imposed aimed at topping Saddam. Problem was ordinary Iraqis did the dying and suffering whilst the Baath leadership continued enjoying their imported food, cigars and furniture.
Getting back to the present: I'll.say again what I said when this whole tragedy started; the Ukraine needs the West but it has to exercise extreme caution in ensuring it does not get stuck in a Western/Russian power play.
Zelansky's desperate for a ceasefire and nobody can blame him but I'm curious as to how the West feels about the concessions he's willing to make? Has the U.S. said anything about the ongoing peace talks? Will it try to influence what the Ukraine might agree to with Russia?
The regime change thing backfired in Egypt, Libya, Afghanistan, and so on. (Or maybe not in Libya. Maybe they weren't stupid enough to think democracy would work there, and a failed state sprouting slave markets and launching leaky boats full of migrants toward Europe was what they wanted all along, especially with Gadaffi's weapons stockpiles flowing to their new pet terrorists in Syria.) They called for Assad's head, but it's still attached. NK's Rocketman rocks on. They claimed it worked with Milosevic, but the Serbs wanted rid of him anyway (and had for some time).
All this regime change business seems to prove one principle and one only: you can be the world's nastiest dictator so long as you've got nukes and you are safe, even if you hide Osama in your backyard. Nope, playing mostly nice and giving up your WMD doesn't work (see Libya). Not a good lesson, if you ask me. Certainly not lost on Iran. (And now that Team Biden appears to be attempting, without much success, to court Iran, and having called the KSA a "pariah", I wonder whether the Saudis will look to get some presents from their Pakistani friends? This could turn out fun!) Failing gettting your paws on some nukes, it's best to cozy up to Russia and/or China.
You are correct about Ukraine needing the West and being cautious about getting sucked into power plays. It is a shame that Ukraine could not have maintained a dignified sort of neutrality and served as a bridge between between Russia and Western Europe. It would have been a lucrative path as well, had they played their cards right. But that would have required more wise, capable and honest leaders on their part, and we (mainly US) would have had to take a different tack regarding Russia back in the 1990s (Kennan and Baker instead of the uberhawks of both the Bush and Clinton administrations). I've always thought that had we listened to Kennan and Baker, there likely never would have been a Putin. Sometimes I wonder if I'm a hopeless dreamer to think so, but it looks like I'm not alone:
Opinion | What Did We Expect? (Published 2008)
President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia gave Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin an excuse to exercise his iron fist.
www.nytimes.com
But no, we listened to the folks who kept insisting:
Oceania was at war with Eurasia: therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. The enemy of the moment always represented absolute evil, and it followed that any past or future agreement with him was impossible.
Sorry for carrying on, but this has always grieved me. There were other chances to prevent the Cold War II we're now in even after Putin came to power. Those chances dimmed after 2007 and died in 2014. But I've carried on too long already. This is a good summary, I think. I can't believe I found something like this:‘Not One Inch Eastward:’ How the War in Ukraine Could Have Been Prevented Decades Ago
Blake Fleetwood writes about how decades of broken American promises led to the current crisis in Ukraine.
scheerpost.com
As for Zelensky and concessions, the Biden administration has been dismissive of today's talks and said that Russia is not serious. I have not seen any statements by European leaders, but there were those expulsions of Russian diplomats today. Will they try to influence Zelensky? Of course they will. It appears the Russians prefer to keep the Americans out of negotiation sessions and Zelensky is going along with that for now.