I have following this guy channel for some time. I found him talking quite logically and try to look on both sides. Off course when I put the link of this guy channel in here, there will be some members that going to say he is not independent, and he is bias on Russian position.
For that I'm not going to talk about his opinion in here, but more some of the points he make on the war in the ground, which he take also from western media like Financial Times.
1. There are no denying that Russia occur heavy losses. How many of them it is pointless to debate as numbers from Ukraine, Russian and Western sources differ significantly and no way to verified them. However many in Western media or offcials avoid to talk on how many the Ukrainian man power and assets that already losses.
Indication from even some western analyst shown the Ukrainian losses actually already reach similar level then Russian or oven more. Which is bad, because their assets is much smaller then the Russian. Which bring to second point,
2. The Russian targeting Ukraine fuel depo, transport infrastructure, and more importantly their heavy industries and armament production facilities. Means basically any losses endured by Ukraine are irreplaceable. This is again not a good sign for a war of attrition that happen now. Which then goes to third point,
3. The main target of Russian is not cities but Ukraine army. Especially Ukraine Joint Force Operation in the east on Donentsk and Luhansk (Donbas). This is their most powerful army units and they are in the open area.
I used to reads many Western media talking Russia is lossing the war, they haven't take many Ukraine major cities. However even if we see the map from French Defense twitter (I have put it yesterday), it is clear the main Russian movement is in the East and South and their movement is to focus on encircling large area in Donbas. Why they are doing it ? Because that's where major Ukrainian army (this JFO) located. Losing that Army for Ukraine in my opinion can be equivant to Confederates lossing Lee's Army of Virginia. Which bring to the fourth point,
4. Is the arms that West supplying to Ukraine can replaces or replenish their losses ? Ukraine is actually one of Global top ten Arms exporter. They are self sufficient because they produce most of their own equipment especially for their Army.
So will some ATGM or Manpads missile or S300 missile that US try to bring, can replace Ukraine own productions ?
I have my own conclusions base on those points above. I don't want to debate much on this, however for me getting to questions why West (in here especially US) want to achieve with Total Economic Sanctions to Russia ? Asside West bring their own foot in the ground, air, and sea facing Russia, what can West actually can help Ukraine in the ground ?
I don't want to debate his own political point of view, or his opinion. I know some members in here does not like him. However there is one question that he has a point. If West try to bring down Putin regime with very harsh economic sanctions, when ever it has been work before ?
Cuba, Venezuella, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Myanmar all the economic sanctions so far only strengthen the regime. Whether the sanctions also harden most population to support the regime can be debateable. However if Putin manage to bring most of the Russian on their Nationalistic side because of the sanctions (and many regime do that), or even some of them disgruntled, will that be enough to bring Political instabilities ?
As a citizen from a country where two bad economics condition bring down two dictators before. I can said, yes a bad economy can bring down a dictactor. However I always said Indonesian actually lucky, cause our two dictators both have enough statesmanship that they are wiling to go down in order for avoiding potential civil war. Both are resigning even actually they're still have substantial support from part of populations.
However most totalitarian regime in this world are not like that. Also Indonesian economic crisis that bring down both dictactors not the results on economic sanctions, which can make situation different as the dictactors can blame the hardships on the sanctions.
So will West keep preping up Zelensky if the situations in the ground getting harder? Tell him to keep fighthing, in hoping to push regime change in Moscow ?