The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[phreeky]

Are you suggesting that you dont see how this is a conflict between "the west" and russia? Now that would be ridiculous.

That's exactly what I'm saying.

Tell me you actually believe all of these countries are "Western":

Security Council Calls Emergency Special Session of General Assembly on Ukraine Crisis, Adopting Resolution 2623 (2022) by 11 Votes in Favour, 1 Against, 3 Abstentions | Meetings Coverage and Press Releases

The Security Council, at its fourth meeting on the situation in Ukraine in the last week, called an emergency special session of the General Assembly in the next 24 hours at which the world body can decide whether to use armed force, when necessary, to maintain or restore international peace and...

www.un.org

United Nations Security Council Resolution 2623 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[swerve]

At a later stage the aim we also to hit workers at home to prevent them from manning the factories. By and large raids on German towns and cities played a big part in effecting morale but it took a while. The killer for the Germans were the raids on factories, transport facilities, oil facilities, etc.

Initially (1939-40) the RAF aimed at military targets. Then they realised that daylight raids without fighter cover were suicidal so took to night bombing of factories making weapons. Then they realised they couldn't hit individual factories at night so aimed at infrastructure & industrial areas. Meanwhile, Harris & a few others came up with the idea of "de-housing" to break the morale of industrial workers (& kill some, of course). Still, they were aiming at industrial areas, so both the workers & the factories in which they worked. They they realised that they were lucky to hit the cities, let alone areas within them.

Accuracy improved (navigation aids, specially trained crews in specially equipped aircraft dropping flares to mark targets, etc.), but Harris et al had become obsessed with area bombing & it was hard to divert them to specific targets such as oil refineries, synthetic oil plants, transport, etc., (Harris spoke of 'panacea targets') but by early 1944 attacking them was very effective indeed. The RAF had got much more accurate at night bombing, & the USAAF had long-range fighters able to escort daylight raids.

 

[STURM]

Please delete.Thank you.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

I have following this guy channel for some time. I found him talking quite logically and try to look on both sides. Off course when I put the link of this guy channel in here, there will be some members that going to say he is not independent, and he is bias on Russian position.

For that I'm not going to talk about his opinion in here, but more some of the points he make on the war in the ground, which he take also from western media like Financial Times.

1. There are no denying that Russia occur heavy losses. How many of them it is pointless to debate as numbers from Ukraine, Russian and Western sources differ significantly and no way to verified them. However many in Western media or offcials avoid to talk on how many the Ukrainian man power and assets that already losses.

Indication from even some western analyst shown the Ukrainian losses actually already reach similar level then Russian or oven more. Which is bad, because their assets is much smaller then the Russian. Which bring to second point,

2. The Russian targeting Ukraine fuel depo, transport infrastructure, and more importantly their heavy industries and armament production facilities. Means basically any losses endured by Ukraine are irreplaceable. This is again not a good sign for a war of attrition that happen now. Which then goes to third point,

3. The main target of Russian is not cities but Ukraine army. Especially Ukraine Joint Force Operation in the east on Donentsk and Luhansk (Donbas). This is their most powerful army units and they are in the open area.

I used to reads many Western media talking Russia is lossing the war, they haven't take many Ukraine major cities. However even if we see the map from French Defense twitter (I have put it yesterday), it is clear the main Russian movement is in the East and South and their movement is to focus on encircling large area in Donbas. Why they are doing it ? Because that's where major Ukrainian army (this JFO) located. Losing that Army for Ukraine in my opinion can be equivant to Confederates lossing Lee's Army of Virginia. Which bring to the fourth point,

4. Is the arms that West supplying to Ukraine can replaces or replenish their losses ? Ukraine is actually one of Global top ten Arms exporter. They are self sufficient because they produce most of their own equipment especially for their Army.

So will some ATGM or Manpads missile or S300 missile that US try to bring, can replace Ukraine own productions ?

I have my own conclusions base on those points above. I don't want to debate much on this, however for me getting to questions why West (in here especially US) want to achieve with Total Economic Sanctions to Russia ? Asside West bring their own foot in the ground, air, and sea facing Russia, what can West actually can help Ukraine in the ground ?

I don't want to debate his own political point of view, or his opinion. I know some members in here does not like him. However there is one question that he has a point. If West try to bring down Putin regime with very harsh economic sanctions, when ever it has been work before ?

Cuba, Venezuella, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Myanmar all the economic sanctions so far only strengthen the regime. Whether the sanctions also harden most population to support the regime can be debateable. However if Putin manage to bring most of the Russian on their Nationalistic side because of the sanctions (and many regime do that), or even some of them disgruntled, will that be enough to bring Political instabilities ?

As a citizen from a country where two bad economics condition bring down two dictators before. I can said, yes a bad economy can bring down a dictactor. However I always said Indonesian actually lucky, cause our two dictators both have enough statesmanship that they are wiling to go down in order for avoiding potential civil war. Both are resigning even actually they're still have substantial support from part of populations.

However most totalitarian regime in this world are not like that. Also Indonesian economic crisis that bring down both dictactors not the results on economic sanctions, which can make situation different as the dictactors can blame the hardships on the sanctions.

So will West keep preping up Zelensky if the situations in the ground getting harder? Tell him to keep fighthing, in hoping to push regime change in Moscow ?

Ref your point #2: US/NATO openly went after "economic targets" during Op Allied Force (bombing of Serbia 1999), including shoe factories and cigarette factories (the latter for their health I suppose). Some we bombed several times until we were basically bombing rubble. Toward the end, the briefings by Jamie Shea and Wesley Clark took on a surreal cast. The bombing of the bridges over the Danube shut off river traffic for years and severely damaged the economies of countries upstream as well as Serbia.

Ref your #3: Excellent point. When I try to explain this to my fellow Americans, they look at me like I have two heads.

Ref sanctions: Sanctions rarely work as planned. In many cases, they tend to entrench dictators and warlords, those positioned to control the black market and further enrich and empower themselves from it. Corruption naturally proliferates.

Ref regime change in Russia: Those cheering for this should be careful what they wish for. Putin is considered a moderate in Russia. Should he be toppled, the democracy-and-unicorns crowd may well be no match for the we-mean-business hardliners. And they do mean business, those fat oligarchs do. Should the democracy-and-uniorns bunch somehow come to power, the West will treat Russia like a beaten drunken bum who should stay in the gutter again, just as we did when Yeltsin was president -- which had a good deal to do with Putin coming to power. And then the cycle starts all over again and there will be another, perhaps even nastier, Putin a decade from now. Lather, rinse, repeat.

 

[STURM]

Hincliffe's The Other Battle is an excellent read. Covers the bombing campaign from the start to the end; as well as what the German response was

The RAF had got much more accurate at night bombing, & the USAAF had long-range fighters able to escort daylight raids.

Pathfinders, Gee, Oboe and the Mustang.

It was a war of resources and scientific development; the Germans couldn't keep up.

 

[STURM]

Sanctions rarely work as planned.

They look great at White House and State Department briefings and on PowerPoint slides. Iraqi children were dying because the machines needed to treat them had dual purposes. At one point pencils couldn't be imported because of the graphite.

 

[John Fedup]

Initially (1939-40) the RAF aimed at military targets. Then they realised that daylight raids without fighter cover were suicidal so took to night bombing of factories making weapons. Then they realised they couldn't hit individual factories at night so aimed at infrastructure & industrial areas. Meanwhile, Harris & a few others came up with the idea of "de-housing" to break the morale of industrial workers (& kill some, of course). Still, they were aiming at industrial areas, so both the workers & the factories in which they worked. They they realised that they were lucky to hit the cities, let alone areas within them.

Accuracy improved (navigation aids, specially trained crews in specially equipped aircraft dropping flares to mark targets, etc.), but Harris et al had become obsessed with area bombing & it was hard to divert them to specific targets such as oil refineries, synthetic oil plants, transport, etc., (Harris spoke of 'panacea targets') but by early 1944 attacking them was very effective indeed. The RAF had got much more accurate at night bombing, & the USAAF had long-range fighters able to escort daylight raids.

Have you read the book “The Bomber Mafia”? Interesting read wrt the two Allied bombing philosophies prior to and during WW2.

 

[STURM]

Ref regime change in Russia: Those cheering for this should be careful what they wish for. Putin is considered a moderate in Russia. .

The assumption or rather the hope is that Putin will be replaced by a liberal Western loving democrat in a rush to integrate Russia with the West and adopt its system of governance, values and other things: as well as returning the Crimea and telling the separatists in the Donbass that they are part of the Ukraine.

In reality there is nothing to suggest that a Putin replacement will also not be assertive in standing up for Russia's interests against what is perceived as an aggressive West adopting policies damaging and threatening to Russian interests.

 

[HelBattery]

Some interesting views here so let me throw in my two cents - loosely but nonetheless somehow related to the main thread.
1) We live in a virtual information bubble created by the media and social networks. This war and the pandemic outbreak are further evidence of that. But reality and related "truth" based on hard facts sometimes come to the fore - the number of deaths during the pandemic, the military losses in this war and even fuel prices. These are facts hard to pin labels on.
I was looking for some information on the "Manila Bulletin" pages and I also checked the "World" tab. The war in Ukraine was at number four: "Zelensky insists on need for 'meeting' with Putin". The first topic on the list was: "UN weighs listing Great Barrier as 'in danger'", second: "'Perfect storm': Europe Covid rise due to fewer curbs, subvariant", third: "Mexico City's new international airport opens with few flights." This dispels the illusion that the whole world is focusing its attention on the war in Ukraine. The information bubble in the Philippines is a different color than the one in New York, London or Berlin.
2) Erdogan after the failed coup in Turkey is not the same Erdogan as before. He remembers the first reactions of the West after the coup and remembers that Putin was one of the first high ranking political persons (if not the first) to fully support him and condemn the coup. The result was a quick reset in relations with Russia (including an apology for downing the Russian plane and buying S400 system). Since then, Erdogan and Turkey's role has continued only to grow - the Azerbaijani-Armenian war and the war in Ukraine show this.
3. Fuel prices and hard truth hits again. There was mention of a possible "regime change" - forced by Putin in Kiev or through a possible coup in Moscow. But it may be that the first "regime change" as a result of the war in Ukraine will occur in Madrid. To quote far-enough-away-from-the-subject-to-gain-the-right-perspective Taiwanese media:

Thousands of demonstrators on Saturday hit the streets across Spain protesting the soaring cost of food, electricity and fuel, which have been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Outside Madrid City Hall, a crowd of several thousand people gathered, waving hundreds of Spanish flags and chanting angry slogans calling for the resignation of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.
"Sanchez, you’re rubbish, bring down our bills,” they shouted, between patriotic cries of “Long live Spain” at a rally demanding government action to lower prices.
“We have the worst possible government... It’s not even a government, it’s a misery factory ... which plunders and extorts workers through abusive taxes,” Vox leader Santiago Abascal told the rally to rousing cheers. “We will not leave the streets until this illegitimate government is expelled.” (...)
Last year, energy prices soared 72 percent in Spain, one of the highest increases within the EU, and costs have surged even higher since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a crisis that comes hot on the heels of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Monday, Spanish lorry drivers declared an open-ended strike over fuel prices that soon mushroomed into multiple roadblocks and protests, triggering supply chain problems.
Rising prices have also prompted the General Union of Workers (UGT) and the Workers’ Commissions (CCOO), Spain’s two biggest unions, to call a national strike on Wednesday.
Spanish Minister of the Presidency, Relations with the Cortes and Democratic Memory Felix Bolanos pledged that the government would unveil its planned steps to reduce the cost of energy and fuel on Tuesday next week, accusing Vox of seeking to profit from a difficult situation.
“The far-right is always stirring up problems and complicating things, no matter how difficult they are... They are not patriots they are troublemakers,” he told Spain’s public television service.
Sanchez is on a European tour to lobby for a common EU response to soaring energy prices.
Madrid has for months urged its European partners to change the mechanism that couples electricity prices to the gas market, but its pleas have so far fallen on deaf ears, despite support from Paris.
Thousands rally against soaring prices in Spain - Taipei Times

4. 1+2+3 = I get the impression that the leaders of the so called Western world don't really know how much is on the table and they have overestimated their capabilities.

 

[Feanor]

In your opinion are the claims that Russia is intentionally targeting non military targets true? They certainly appear to be but why? To drive civilians out?

Also there has been a lack of reporting but how have the Russians been doing UAS wise? Are there any signs that UASs at a tactical and operational are extensively being employed as they were in the Donbass?

I don't see it. Remember any building can be a military target if enemy forces are using it. For example - the Retroville shopping center in Kiev which was actually a staging ground for Ukrainian artillery, or residential buildings in Mariupol' that had Ukrainian fighters setting up roof positions. Remember - a determined and reasonably well equipped and trained light infantry force can make clearing out a major city very difficult and by the time you're done, the city won't exactly be intact.

 

[STURM]

Thank you for your feedback. I'm very interested in what you have to say. What about Chechnya? I was under the impression that widespread use of firepower was a throwback to WW2 and intended to make areas untenable for Chechian fighters but was it also driven by the fact that the Chechians had occupied positions where civilians were still present and the Russians lacked more precise means?

Again on the Ukraine. Correct me if I'm mistaken; you're suggesting that a lot of the reports of indiscriminate targeting by the Russians on non military targets is because Ukrainian forces are there?

 

[Feanor]

Thank you for your feedback. I'm very interested in what you have to say. What about Chechnya? I was under the impression that widespread use of firepower was a throwback to WW2 and intended to make areas untenable for Chechian fighters but was it also driven by the fact that the Chechians had occupied positions where civilians were still present and the Russians lacked more precise means?

Again on the Ukraine. Correct me if I'm mistaken; you're suggesting that a lot of the reports of indiscriminate targeting by the Russians on non military targets is because Ukrainian forces are there?

There's poor accuracy vs intentional targetting. There's civilian targets repurposed for military use vs purely civilian targets. So for example Russia will definitely use heavy artillery against Ukrainian positions in urban areas. On the other hand, Ukraine has done the same for years in the Donbas (it's almost like both militaries grew out of the same Soviet ancestor ). The Chechen wars are a separate mess, and the first and second wars were often very different, so I don't want to mix what took place there with what we see here too much.

I'm suggesting that the overwhelming majority of Russian fires againts civilian structures are driven by information, correct or not, that Ukrainian forces are set up there. We have had a continuing pattern of Ukrainian troops hiding among civilian infrastructure intentionally, and even trying to blame Russia for damage they caused themselves (like the incident in Zhulyany where a Ukrainian SAM hit a building while launching and they tried to blame on a Russian cruise missile). We also have continuous reports out of Volnovakha and Mariupol' from local civilians stating that Ukrainian forces either damaged their home, or set up positions near their home.

|"Ukraine war: Russian soldiers fire on Kherson protesters "|

Ukraine war: Russian soldiers fire on Kherson protesters

Protesters in Kherson scattered as explosions are heard and shots were fired by Russian soldiers.

www.bbc.com

BBC makes it sound like Evil Russian soldiers are aiming and firing with life rounds on protesters.

I've had very poor regard for the BBC since the 5 day war where they literally reported the opposite of what was happening, and I suspect they did it either through willful ignorance or intent. I wouldn't trust them even for factual reporting, without additional corroboration.

 

[Ananda]

Opinion | Sanctions on Russia Pit the West Against the Rest of the World

Woke Democrats are less welcome than Trumpian populists in many countries.

www.wsj.com

Among the opinion from People in the West that Putin is the most hated people in the world. Question whether most of the world will follow what the west dictate/hoping to do with Putin Russia, may gaining not much popularity with them as most Western Politicals circle (especially in DC and London) hope for.

Walter Mead is long time coloumnist with WSJ. What he raise is one question. How many outside NATO (and it's non Western closest 'friends') that actually really want to follow Western action toward Putin Russia ? He put one point that many Western media glossing around it. Those Non Western countries that voted in UN on condeming Russian invasion, not necessary will toes behind on Western harsh sanctions and effort to isolate Russia.

 

[QEDdeq]

I've had very poor regard for the BBC since the 5 day war where they literally reported the opposite of what was happening, and I suspect they did it either through willful ignorance or intent. I wouldn't trust them even for factual reporting, without additional corroboration.

What amuses me the most with BBC are their maps of the conflict. I kept a few screenshots of when they dropped the legend over the whole Kherson region to mask Russian occupation there - there was plenty of space to put it somewhere else where it wouldn't interfere with the actual map. Or using white contours around characters making the cities names to further diminish the visual assessment of occupied areas. See the attached jpeg file.

Its hilarious, my six year old could do British level of disinfo in Paint if I'd ask him. This shows plainly that disinformation efforts are not aimed at people who are really interested and who are objectively and closely watching the conflict but at the large masses who take a superficial interest in what's happening. The first group would be hard to convince anyway, the second and much larger group is easy to manipulate.

This is not to say that the Russians are angels, there is disinfo flowing daily on their channels too, but unlike what is being put out by the British MoD via the BBC the Russian MoD does seem to be a bit more objective and stay closer to facts and truth in their reporting.

 

[STURM]

I have no idea how accurate some of the claims made in this article are but it does make for interesting reading. If several reports which have appeared are reliable the Russians are also increasingly making use of UASs; including "loitering" ones they were not known to pocess.

Like several other articles and reports the Russians appear to be totally unprepared to.deal with but this is surprising given that in the Donbass the Russians deployed UASs very effectively and would be highly aware of the threat posed by them. Another factor to consider is that the Russians deploy MANPADs and alerting devices right down to battalion level; together with EW which is widely deployed; this would on paper provide an effective anti UAS capability

Ukraine’s Drones Are Wreaking Havoc On The Russian Army

Today Ukraine’s killer-drone fleet arguably is its most potent force.

www.forbes.com

"In fact, the actual number of drone kills undoubtedly is much, much higher. We don’t know the real total because Ukraine doesn’t want us to know where and how often its drones are striking. “In an effort to attract as little attention to its operations as possible, very little footage of TB2 strikes over Ukraine has been released,” noted the analysts at Oryx blog, a leading source of open-source intelligence."

"The distance the drones are flying seems to hint that Turkey provided Ukraine with the latest version of the TB-2 with satellite-communications capability, as well as access to Turksat satellites. The alternative is line-of-sight radio, which can take a drone out to just 100 miles or so."

What ATGW is she operating? It's linked to a screen enabling her to analyse footage. Had no idea this was possible with ATGWs. She can be seen taking a reload from a car and it doesn't look Western. Konkurs or Kornet perhaps?

 

[HelBattery]

What ATGW is she operating? It's linked to a screen enabling her to analyse footage. Had no idea this was possible with ATGWs. She can be seen taking a reload from a car and it doesn't look Western. Konkurs or Kornet perhaps?

It looks like STUGNA-P:

Ukrainian ATGM Team Destroys Russian Armor with Stugna-P (funker530.com)

 

[Rob c]

This is one of the craziest statements I have read in a while. What is the crime so great that Russia has committed that other world powers have not committed.

How is the Russian invasion of Ukraine any worse than the US invasion of Iraq or the Middle East proxy wars in Syria or the bombing of Libya?

While I agree with you that the US and others are far from blameless, There are two things I would comment on, the first is the old saying that, "two wrongs don't make a wright", in other words just because someone else does something wrong . that does not give anyone the right to do the same thing. The other point I would make is that I believe that Putin is following the example of Adolf Hitler using almost the same tactics and excuses and that this is just a grab for more power over a larger area, by him.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It looks like STUGNA-P:

Ukrainian ATGM Team Destroys Russian Armor with Stugna-P (funker530.com)

Thank you for sharing.
|""Its guidance device is developed and manufactured by Belarusian design bureau Peleng based in Minsk. The name literally means “Scythian”."|
Interesting to know.

R-111 Stugna-P

The Stugna-P, also known as Skif in export modification, is a Ukrainian anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) system developed by the Luch Design Bureau. Its guidance device is developed and manufactured by Belarusian design bureau Peleng based in Minsk. The name literally means Scythian.

www.globalsecurity.org

 

[GermanHerman]

While I agree with you that the US and others are far from blameless, There are two things I would comment on, the first is the old saying that, "two wrongs don't make a wright", in other words just because someone else does something wrong . that does not give anyone the right to do the same thing. The other point I would make is that I believe that Putin is following the example of Adolf Hitler using almost the same tactics and excuses and that this is just a grab for more power over a larger area, by him.

The difference between Hitler and Putin in that analogie would be the lack of a reason for further expansionism beyond the former borders of the russian Empire.

One could argue for a full reconquista of lost soviet territory but as this would basicly mean capturing Berlin I dont think this is an realistic thought entertained by Putin.

Hitlers need for Lebensraum was born out of the theory of the shrinking markets. Putin on the other hand is driven by the idea of competition between states and governments. He thinks that great powers subjugate lesser powers by means of soft or hard power and is aware that russia without nuclear weapons is merely a smaller Power.
In order to secure the sovereignity of russia it needs to accumulate more power and grow stronger. And at the same time undermine and weaken it's enemies.

The war in Ukraine serves this purpose Well because he does keep nato forces further away from Moscow and establishes a client state which strengthen russia.

At the same time the US look incredible weak when they go and beg venezuela and iran for Oil, unwilling to put boots on the ground.

This erodes the soft power of the US, the sanctions hurting the west.

Yes, the sanction hurt russia too, but at the end the power another country has over ones economy is leverage and a way to project soft power. So by letting the West cut all ties he "cleans" his country from this danger. What ever the Economy will look like when its rebuild it will be stronger in Putins eyes. This might be actualy a parallel to Hitler who also aimed to make germany self proficient.

 

[Feanor]

The difference between Hitler and Putin in that analogie would be the lack of a reason for further expansionism beyond the former borders of the russian Empire.

One could argue for a full reconquista of lost soviet territory but as this would basicly mean capturing Berlin I dont think this is an realistic thought entertained by Putin.

Hitlers need for Lebensraum was born out of the theory of the shrinking markets. Putin on the other hand is driven by the idea of competition between states and governments. He thinks that great powers subjugate lesser powers by means of soft or hard power and is aware that russia without nuclear weapons is merely a smaller Power.
In order to secure the sovereignity of russia it needs to accumulate more power and grow stronger. And at the same time undermine and weaken it's enemies.

The war in Ukraine serves this purpose Well because he does keep nato forces further away from Moscow and establishes a client state which strengthen russia.

At the same time the US look incredible weak when they go and beg venezuela and iran for Oil, unwilling to put boots on the ground.

This erodes the soft power of the US, the sanctions hurting the west.

Yes, the sanction hurt russia too, but at the end the power another country has over ones economy is leverage and a way to project soft power. So by letting the West cut all ties he "cleans" his country from this danger. What ever the Economy will look like when its rebuild it will be stronger in Putins eyes. This might be actualy a parallel to Hitler who also aimed to make germany self proficient.

Let's keep this discussion closer to the defense related side of this conversation. We have a general rule against political discussions, and this is a pretty major tangent.