The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

It appears that the Russians may have made a strategic error which could cost them their victory. Putin's Colossal Strategic Error in Ukraine | Newsroom What Robert Patman labels a colossal error, I think is possibly an over statement. However he is correct in that it is a stuff up.

"More than two weeks after launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it is increasingly evident Putin’s Russia has made a huge strategic misjudgment that potentially threatens the political survival of the authoritarian regime in Moscow.​

​

Having failed to obtain a lightening, blitzkrieg style victory the Putin regime expected, the Russian military has resorted to encircling Ukrainian cities and blindly pounding them with artillery and missile strikes.​

​

As recent events in Kiev showed, there's nothing blind about Russian strikes. Having spent 20+ developing the recon-strike and recon-fire complexes, those are fully functioning. It remains to be seen whether this can break the Ukrainian military. I suspect Russia will be able to knock out vehicles and concentrations of troops in relatively open terrain very easily. The biggest problem will be motivated light infantry formations in urban areas, with modern weapons and comms.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kiev.

Battle damage to the Retroville shopping center.

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ZERGULIO

И ещё одно видео киевского ТРЦ, качественное

t.me

ZERGULIO

Видео ТРЦ в Киеве

t.me

ZERGULIO

Ну наконец вменяемое фото ТРЦ в Киеве

t.me

Военкор Котенок

То, что осталось от украинского «Града», уничтоженного при ударе по киевскому ТРЦ «Retroville»

t.me

Ukrainian security forces arrested a civilian in Kiev for uploading a video of the Retroville shopping center that showed a Ukrainian SP Arty near there. Which would be somewhat funny if it wasn't for the fact that this mans fate is on the line. This arrest is pretty pointless since Russian UAVs spotted the Grads, and other footage of Ukrainian artillery in that area is available.

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Around Kiev.

Apparently 67 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered near Kiev. Unclear if it's related to the 14th Mech Bde surrender reported earlier.

Colonelcassad

Пленные ВСУшники под Киевом. Раненому с осколочными ранениями оказали первую медицинскую помощь. Всего 67 пленных. Видео с ними тут https://t.me/boris_rozhin/35118

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Опубликованы кадры с 67 военнослужащим ВСУ взятыми в плен под Киевом военнослужащими Вооруженных сил России. @zhdanovrt

t.me

Colonelcassad

Еще несколько кадров с украинскими пленными, которые вчера сдались в плен под Киевом. Видео с ними тут https://t.me/opersvodki/2093

t.me

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In Pochepin village, allegedly a Ukrainian recon team was taken out. They had an NLAW, SMAW-D, and a very strange assortment of weapons including bolt action rifles, submachineguns, and RPGs.

Оперативные сводки

⚡️ Вчера, в процессе зачистки населенного пункта Почепин, российский танк уничтожил в одном из домов ДРГ укронацистов. На месте расположения ДРГ был обнаружен схрон с оружием. Помимо советских образцов стрелкового оружия, в руки антифашистов попали гранатометы NLAW и SMAW-D, а также то, что...

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian vehicles continue to unload in Berdyansk.

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Murado

И ещё фото и видео с выгрузки большого десантного корабля «Орск» в порту Бердянска. Корабль огромен, способен вместить 20 танков или 40 бронемашин вместе с 300 десантниками. На борту есть различное вооружение — от реактивных систем залпового огня «Град» до различных зенитных орудий, но это...

t.me

Murado

Мы сняли уникальные кадры — российский БДК «Орск» в сопровождении военно-морских сил Черноморского флота зашёл и выгрузил военную технику в порту Бердянска. Украинские войска, которые базировались в Бердянске — тысячи и тысячи солдат и моряков, — сдали порт без боя, оставив всю инфраструктуру...

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

A hotel in Nikolaev got hit by Russian strikes. Presumably it was a staging area for Ukrainian forces.

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БелВПО

В Николаеве утилизирована гостиница вместе с "туристами"

t.me

Impact in allegedly Nikolaev, possibly same as above.

СМОТРИ

‼️ В соцсетях публикуют кадры взрыва, предположительно, из Николаева Местные жители сообщают, что слышали мощный взрыв, а также густой столб дыма ▶️ @smotri_media

t.me

Sounds of explosions near the Odessa coastline and what appear to be artillery impacts in the water. Unclear whose.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Одесса, море, звуки боя и взрывы на воде @OpenUkraine

t.me

Russian National Guard scattering local protesters in Kherson with flashbangs. Warning shots were fired.

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СОЛДАТ УДАЧИ

Дядя Витя прилёг отдохнуть Надо обладать реально свиным умом, чтобы пойти на вооружённые силы с криками и толпой, когда идёт война Ну вот огребайте далбоебы Будет вам урок

t.me

ZERGULIO

Ещё одно видео разгона ослов майдаунов в Херсоне. Видно, что наши ребята стреляют в воздух. Это вам не Беркут безоружный в Киеве жечь, скоты, прыгуны жовто блакитные.

t.me

Mariupol'

Azovstal' in Mariupol' got hit, again.

Военный Осведомитель

Бомбардировка Азовстали

t.me

Ясиноватая, Донбасс на линии огня

Фрагмент промзоны Азовстали Мариуполь 21.03.2022

t.me

Smoke rising over Mariupol', battle damage.

Inside Donetsk

Панорама горящего Мариуполя сегодня На заднем фоне женщина зачитывает смс-ку с номера 777: "Сложите оружие и выйдите из города, гарантируем безопасность". Очевидно, рассылка от Z Inside⚒Donetsk

t.me

The airport.

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Заеzжий корреспондент

t.me

A civilian from Volnovakha reports that Ukrainian forces shot up the local hospital with tanks.

ГРИГОРЬЕВ

⠀ Эксклюзив. Наш Международный общественный трибунал по преступлениям украинских неонацистов (председатель - М. С. Григорьев) из представителей гражданского общества более чем 30 стран мира продолжает расследования военных преступлений киевского режима. Жительница Волновахи Валентина...

t.me

LDNR Front.

Avdeevka, north-west of Donetsk, got hit.

АГЕНТ ГОСДЕПА

❗Авдеевка...

t.me

Rebel mortars and MBTs firing towards Mar'inka.

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Rebel mortars firing towards Mar'inka, south-west of Donestk.

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Strikes near Kramatorsk continue.

Colonelcassad

Ночные удары в районе аэродрома Краматорска. Пару дней назад по нему уже жестко прилетало (были уничтожены самолеты и вертолеты).

t.me

The Slavyansk rail station got hit as well. Allegedly Ukrainian forces were staging there.

Военкор Андрей Камыжикин

Славянск Ракетный удар по ЖД вокзалу Славянска. В зданиях и помещениях вокзала располагались подразделения ВСУ, о чем мы не однократно сообщали ранее. Новые ракетные удары по этим локациям только подтверждают наши данные. @anna_news @akimapachev @diza_donbass

t.me

МИГ России

Ночь в Славянске накрыли скопление техники ВСУ в р-не ж\д вокзала

t.me

Russian airstrike in Krasnoarmeysk, north-west of Donetsk.

Неофициальный Безсонов

Уничтожение украинского военного объекта (позиций) в н.п. Красноармейск военным самолётом ВКС РФ.

t.me

Impacts, presumably Ukrainian, hit Makeevka.

Репортёр Руденко V

Макеевка прилёт.

t.me

Rebel forces in Stepnoe, the town fell recently after heavy fighting. Also some shots of destroyed Ukrainian light armor, same as before.

Военный Осведомитель

Подразделения Народной милиции ДНР в освобождённом посёлке Степное.

t.me

ВЕСТИ КРЫМ

ВСУ на Донбассе несут потери в живой силе и технике В освобожденных сёлах, помимо техники, которую ещё можно восстановить, везде раскуроченные остатки бронемашин. На въезде в село Степное стоят сожженые украинские танки, БМП и одна бронемашина «Новатор». На месте работает корреспондент Вести...

t.me

Ukrainian 2S7s allegedly west of Donetsk. I can't find the population centers they mention in a location that makes sense.

Colonelcassad

Обнаружили позиции самоходных артиллерийских установок 2С7 «Пион» ВСУ к западу от Донецка. Примерное местоположение — поля между Шахтерским и Новоукраинкой (47.862696, 37.066353). На видео присутствуют характерные опоры ЛЭП. На 40-й секунде видео видна опора молниеприемника, что указывает на...

t.me

Misc.

Apparent Russian Kinzhal launches over Ukraine, targets and dates unclear.

⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ

Российский гиперзвуковой авиационный ракетный комплекс «Кинжал» поражает цели ВСУ. Для не понимающих натовских военачальников разъясняем: ваши военные объекты не только в зоне поражения стратегического высокоточного оружия, но и абсолютно не защищены перед его разрушительным воздействием.

t.me

Russian 2S7M firing, Ukraine.

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Russian Mi-24 allegedly took damage from a Stinger and made it back.

Zvezdanews

«Мне в лоб выпустили "Стингер"... Я просто понял, надо как-то выжить»: пилот российского вертолета Ми-24 рассказал, как ему удалось уклониться от прямого попадания ПЗРК «Стингер», выпущенного украинскими войсками. Ракета взорвалась в районе хвостовой балки вертолета и нарушила работу систем...

t.me

A Ukrainian soldier with two Panzerfaust-3s and an RPG-22.

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Ukrainian forces practicing with a Soviet Maxim gun, location unclear.

Центр Рубеж

Война музейных экспонатов продолжается. На этот раз украинский военнослужащий ведет огонь на полигоне из Пулемёта Максима модификации 1941 года. @globalwarzone

t.me

Russian air defense in or near Ukraine.

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Russian helos operating over Ukraine, context and location unclear.

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3 young women taped to poles in L'vov, and their faces painted green context unclear.

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Андрей Vышинский

Во Львове издеваются над прибывшими из Киева беженцами-цыганами. Всё по заветам предков из дивизии СС "Галичина".

t.me

БелВПО

Цыгане из Одессы выехали во Львов, где их и встретили бандеровцы

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Another civilian taped to a pole, allegedly a looter, Ukraine. The swastika is not a good look.

Colonelcassad

Очередной нацистский БДСМ на Украине.

t.me

Ukraine has legally banned video-registrators in private cars.

Милитарист

На Украине запретили видеорегистраторы

t.me

A Ukrainian POW, location unclear.

Русская Весна Z : спецоперация на Украине и Донбассе

Боец Нацгвардии из Днепропетровска не захотел умирать за нацистов и Зеленского и перешёл на сторону ДНР. t.me/rusvesnasu

t.me

Ukrainian POWs from the north.

Dambiev

Очередные украинские пленные, сдавшиеся российской армии в зоне проведения специальной военной операции на северном направлении.

t.me

Ukrainian troops set up in a school, context unclear.

СМОТРИ

⚡️Украинские неонацисты прячутся в школах На кадрах видно, что несколько человек расположились в одном из кабинетов украинской школы. Это является очередным подтверждением того, что украинская армия прикрывается жилыми кварталами. ▶️ @smotri_media

t.me

 

[STURM]

As recent events in Kiev showed, there's nothing blind about Russian strikes. Having spent 20+ developing the recon-strike and recon-fire complexes, those are fully functioning.

In your opinion are the claims that Russia is intentionally targeting non military targets true? They certainly appear to be but why? To drive civilians out?

Also there has been a lack of reporting but how have the Russians been doing UAS wise? Are there any signs that UASs at a tactical and operational are extensively being employed as they were in the Donbass?

 

[Vivendi]

There are so many things wrong with this statement.

1. Assumption that countries like Israel or Turkey or India, do not know exactly is going on.
2. If they are failing to take action because of "political reasons", these reasons are inconsequential in the context of the said international laws.

Don't be mistaken, most (by the virtue of the United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1, 2 March 2022) countries know exactly what laws are being broken by Russia and have expressed their contempt. But to expect everyone of those countries to react in the same way (i.e, imposing economic sanctions, shipping arms) as the EU is impractical and naive.

To imply/dismiss countries which fail to commit to those sanctions/actions as failing Ukraine/human rights/international law are falling short of the standards set by the West and need to do better, that is the classic "Western country lecturing the rest of the world how being to be better". It completely ignores the "why" and dismisses the practical concerns (i.e., Russia supports my economy, Russia is a major security player in the region) as irrelevant.

And if the said countries decide to forgo their individual "political reasons" to join EU/NATO, and there is blowback from Russia, do you think that the EU/NATO will say, offer security gurantees to Israel, economic assistance to India and accept refugees from Algeria? Those are real consequences, although not the types you were thinking of.

1. I was talking about media not "countries"
2. I was saying that in general media was doing a poor job at explaining international law and war crimes.
3. In the parantheses I did mention media from some specific countries -- I must confess I have not done a scientific study of media from those countries, it was an opinion based on me sampling media from said countries in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. In retrospect I should have skipped that parantheses since sample size was not very big.

To comment the rest of what you wrote: I certainly don't expect e.g., India to impose sanctions and shipping arms to Ukraine. However what I would expect them to do was to not abstain from voting at the UN, as I am sure you know they did -- not once, not twice, but three times.

 

[Vivendi]

The Drive analyzed images from the alleged the hypersonic missile strike:

We can now say for certain that the strike depicted happened nowhere near the western part of the country and not at some major military weapons storage area. It happened at a heavily bombarded rural area in the far eastern area of Ukraine[.]
...
With all this in mind, it is very unlikely we are seeing a Kinzhal missile being used in the video. Whether or not one was used at all, we cannot answer that. Maybe there was another target somewhere, but this was not it.

We Have Questions About Russia's Claimed Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile Use In Ukraine (Updated) (thedrive.com)

 

[STURM]

However what I would expect them to do was to not abstain from voting at the UN, as I am sure you know they did -- not once, not twice, but three times.

This article explains why India has adopted the position it has.

Why is India standing with Putin’s Russia?

"India’s approach to the situation in Ukraine is hardly surprising or atypical. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties following India’s independence in 1947, relations between Moscow and New Delhi have been shaped by a “high degree of political and strategic trust”. Across the years, Russia and India routinely took similar stances and supported each other on contentious international "



.

 

[Vivendi]

This article explains why India has adopted the position it has.

Why is India standing with Putin’s Russia?

"India’s approach to the situation in Ukraine is hardly surprising or atypical. Since the establishment of diplomatic ties following India’s independence in 1947, relations between Moscow and New Delhi have been shaped by a “high degree of political and strategic trust”. Across the years, Russia and India routinely took similar stances and supported each other on contentious international "

I am fully aware of this. This is exactly the kind of thinking that is not bringing the world forward. When a crime has been committed it must be pointed out and addressed, even if the person committing the crime is a "friend".

 

[T.C.P]

I am fully aware of this. This is exactly the kind of thinking that is not bringing the world forward. When a crime has been committed it must be pointed out and addressed, even if the person committing the crime is a "friend".

This is one of the craziest statements I have read in a while. What is the crime so great that Russia has committed that other world powers have not committed.

How is the Russian invasion of Ukraine any worse than the US invasion of Iraq or the Middle East proxy wars in Syria or the bombing of Libya?

Why did japan, Korea and other non involved nations continue to do business with the West despite the invasion of Iraq?

.Boris Johnson had the audacity of criticizing UAE for meeting with Assad and actually seek stability in Syria, he had no such problems while UAE was funding multiple proxies in Syria and elongating abloody civil war. He has no problems supplying weaponry to Saudi Arabai in their inhumane and disgusting campaign in Yemen, which has seen a humanitarian crisis worse than Ukraine for a longer period of time.

In realpolitik and geo strategy there is no right and wrong, nations will look after their best interests. Indias relationship with Russia is a long and time tested relationship that has survived, with both countries backing each other up across decades. The United States would not share the Patriot system technology with Turkey, their long standing NATO ally, Russia never hesitated to share any of its high tech with India. From India's perspective Russia is a more reliable partner than the West can ever be.

Edit- I wrote 2 statements in the heat of the moment, that were aggressively unconfrontational and did not add to the depth of the discussion. I removed them in the edit.

 

[STURM]

I am fully aware of this. This is exactly the kind of thinking that is not bringing the world forward. When a crime has been committed it must be pointed out and addressed, even if the person committing the crime is a "friend".

Well I'm gratified you're fully aware of it. I won't go into crimes, justice, righteousness and so on. I merely posted the link because it had a bearing on what was discussed...Also it's about geo strategic interests and realpolitik; not who's a "friend" but I guess you're fully aware of that too...

 

[koxinga]

I am fully aware of this. This is exactly the kind of thinking that is not bringing the world forward. When a crime has been committed it must be pointed out and addressed, even if the person committing the crime is a "friend".

While I don't really want to live in a world that is focused entirely on the bottom line, doing what is "right" is often an luxury because there are consequences.

If India does vote in favor of condeming Russia, all it gets is a pat on the back for being "rightous" but financial and military sanctions from Russia, will the West and EU offer any material relief? We live in the real world. Abstaining is probably the best they can do given the circumstances and dependencies.

 

[koxinga]

How is the Russian invasion of Ukraine any worse than the US invasion of Iraq or the Middle East proxy wars in Syria or the bombing of Libya?

The western liberal/apologist answer is:

US invasion of Iraq = Liberate Iraq from tyranny (Saddam)
Middle East proxy wars in Syria = Liberate Syria from tyranny (Assad)
Bombing of Libya = Liberate Libya from tyranny (Qaddafi)

The conspiracy theorist would be more around (1) oil, (2) western imperalist designs, (3) support the military industrial complex. Pick your poison.

The great white man's burden is to spread freedom through bullets and bombs for the greater good.

But this is side tracking from this thread. We know there are different views.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Update.
Russian National Guard scattering local protesters in Kherson with flashbangs. Warning shots were fired.

|"Ukraine war: Russian soldiers fire on Kherson protesters "|

Ukraine war: Russian soldiers fire on Kherson protesters

Protesters in Kherson scattered as explosions are heard and shots were fired by Russian soldiers.

www.bbc.com

BBC makes it sound like Evil Russian soldiers are aiming and firing with life rounds on protesters.

 

[T.C.P]

The western liberal/apologist answer is:

US invasion of Iraq = Liberate Iraq from tyranny (Saddam)
Middle East proxy wars in Syria = Liberate Syria from tyranny (Assad)
Bombing of Libya = Liberate Libya from tyranny (Qaddafi)

The conspiracy theorist would be more around (1) oil, (2) western imperalist designs, (3) support the military industrial complex. Pick your poison.

The great white man's burden is to spread freedom through bullets and bombs for the greater good.

But this is side tracking from this thread. We know there are different views.

Why do we need conspiracy theories, it served NATO's geoplitcal aims by attacking those countries, if I was a Western man, I would have wanted my govt to do that as well.

Its the blatant hypocrisy and the subsequent high horse stance that pisses me off. Of course the UK will supply weapons to their allies the Saudis in their fight against Iranian proxies, Gaddafi was a thorn in their plans for North Africa, he had to be removed. From a strategic stance, these were all sensible moves. Its the moral high standing that is sickening.

As a brown man, I cant explain how my stomach turned watching Europe turn that molatov cocktail making girl in Ukraine into a hero, where as just a few years ago, little Iraqi boys were being labelled as scary terrorirsts that were legitimate military targets when they doing the same thing. Children throwing rocks at tanks are lethal threats that need to be neutralized, but god forbid a russian bomb takes out a Ukranian child, making molotovs. Ukrainians picking up guns to fight off invaders are brave freedom fighter, but an afghani picking up a gun, is a goat fucking simpleton terrorist.

 

[Ananda]

I have following this guy channel for some time. I found him talking quite logically and try to look on both sides. Off course when I put the link of this guy channel in here, there will be some members that going to say he is not independent, and he is bias on Russian position.

For that I'm not going to talk about his opinion in here, but more some of the points he make on the war in the ground, which he take also from western media like Financial Times.

1. There are no denying that Russia occur heavy losses. How many of them it is pointless to debate as numbers from Ukraine, Russian and Western sources differ significantly and no way to verified them. However many in Western media or offcials avoid to talk on how many the Ukrainian man power and assets that already losses.

Indication from even some western analyst shown the Ukrainian losses actually already reach similar level then Russian or oven more. Which is bad, because their assets is much smaller then the Russian. Which bring to second point,

2. The Russian targeting Ukraine fuel depo, transport infrastructure, and more importantly their heavy industries and armament production facilities. Means basically any losses endured by Ukraine are irreplaceable. This is again not a good sign for a war of attrition that happen now. Which then goes to third point,

3. The main target of Russian is not cities but Ukraine army. Especially Ukraine Joint Force Operation in the east on Donentsk and Luhansk (Donbas). This is their most powerful army units and they are in the open area.

I used to reads many Western media talking Russia is lossing the war, they haven't take many Ukraine major cities. However even if we see the map from French Defense twitter (I have put it yesterday), it is clear the main Russian movement is in the East and South and their movement is to focus on encircling large area in Donbas. Why they are doing it ? Because that's where major Ukrainian army (this JFO) located. Losing that Army for Ukraine in my opinion can be equivant to Confederates lossing Lee's Army of Virginia. Which bring to the fourth point,

4. Is the arms that West supplying to Ukraine can replaces or replenish their losses ? Ukraine is actually one of Global top ten Arms exporter. They are self sufficient because they produce most of their own equipment especially for their Army.

So will some ATGM or Manpads missile or S300 missile that US try to bring, can replace Ukraine own productions ?

I have my own conclusions base on those points above. I don't want to debate much on this, however for me getting to questions why West (in here especially US) want to achieve with Total Economic Sanctions to Russia ? Asside West bring their own foot in the ground, air, and sea facing Russia, what can West actually can help Ukraine in the ground ?

I don't want to debate his own political point of view, or his opinion. I know some members in here does not like him. However there is one question that he has a point. If West try to bring down Putin regime with very harsh economic sanctions, when ever it has been work before ?

Cuba, Venezuella, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Myanmar all the economic sanctions so far only strengthen the regime. Whether the sanctions also harden most population to support the regime can be debateable. However if Putin manage to bring most of the Russian on their Nationalistic side because of the sanctions (and many regime do that), or even some of them disgruntled, will that be enough to bring Political instabilities ?

As a citizen from a country where two bad economics condition bring down two dictators before. I can said, yes a bad economy can bring down a dictactor. However I always said Indonesian actually lucky, cause our two dictators both have enough statesmanship that they are wiling to go down in order for avoiding potential civil war. Both are resigning even actually they're still have substantial support from part of populations.

However most totalitarian regime in this world are not like that. Also Indonesian economic crisis that bring down both dictactors not the results on economic sanctions, which can make situation different as the dictactors can blame the hardships on the sanctions.

So will West keep preping up Zelensky if the situations in the ground getting harder? Tell him to keep fighthing, in hoping to push regime change in Moscow ?

 

[koxinga]

If West try to bring down Putin regime with very harsh economic sanctions, when ever it has been work before ?

There are no expectations that sanctions will bring down Putin or any dictactors.

Sanctions exist as a means to signal to the country that their actions violate acceptable norms (unilateral sanctions would national) and to exact an economic cost. The hope is the cost of the sanctions would be sufficient to change the minds of those in power.

Does it work? I would say there is a mixed track record on it. Clearly, while Iran can survive under the sanctions, they are only negotiating because they want the relief. Otherwise they would have walked away ages ago. Would it work for Russia?

Honestly, I have my doubts. There are enough fence sitters internationally to suggest that they have partners to work with. Is the West prepared to sanction those countries using an economic CAASTA? Unlikely as that would set back the global economy that is already fragile due to the pandemic.

 

[phreeky]

Can we drop the term "the West"? This so called group referenced here seems to have some countries considered as part of it as times and not at other times (i.e. Japan). And then referencing previous wars, could I point you to "Western" countries that protested strongly against wars such as the Iraq War? These are independent countries - to suggest they're all in coordination at all times is ridiculous!

With regards to the effectiveness of sanctions, I think the access to information from afar by everyday Russian's means that this could play out very differently to other regimes in history. I think the population will maintain an awareness of truths on an on-going basis. Furthermore it would appear that in most countries the more nationalistic ones are the older population, with a much greater "global" population in the younger generations. Of course that in itself doesn't change a regime, so it's hard to say how it will play out.

Interestingly there has also been significant effort from many opposing the war to not lay the blame of this at Russia, but very much at Putin. I think that a significant change within Russian leadership could mend the international relations much faster than people think, and I believe that this is a large motive for that.

 

[STURM]

Zelensky is showings signs of pressure and who can blame him? He's offered to meet Putin and said that NATO membership is something the Ukraine is willing to foregore. On the Crimes and the separatist regions that is something which will be discusseda after a cease fire he said.

 

[cdxbow]

Zelensky is showings signs of pressure and who can blame him? He's offered to meet Putin and said that NATO membership is something the Ukraine is willing to foregore. On the Crimes and the separatist regions that is something which will be discusseda after a cease fire he said.

He's offered to meet Putin for years and Mr P has refused, repeatedly. I expect this to continue. They don't meet NATO requirements, so dropping something that isn't possible isn't really a big concession but does remove one of Putins justification for the invasion. I don't think either side thinks they have reached a stalemate yet, so I don't expect very fruitful negotiations for weeks to months.

Russian losses according Avakov Arsen (ex Ukraine Minister) have been very high and if they are anything like this then Mr P is going to have trouble prolonging the war much longer. See:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1505961677371621379

 

[GermanHerman]

Can we drop the term "the West"? This so called group referenced here seems to have some countries considered as part of it as times and not at other times (i.e. Japan). And then referencing previous wars, could I point you to "Western" countries that protested strongly against wars such as the Iraq War? These are independent countries - to suggest they're all in coordination at all times is ridiculous!

No one is suggesting that the entire western world is one solid block that will always and on all topics have one oppinion. The EU has a lot of internal dissent and yet no one would argue that the EU should or could not be precived as one political entity.

Just compare those too maps:

Western world - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Are you suggesting that you dont see how this is a conflict between "the west" and russia? Now that would be ridiculous.

With regards to the effectiveness of sanctions, I think the access to information from afar by everyday Russian's means that this could play out very differently to other regimes in history. I think the population will maintain an awareness of truths on an on-going basis. Furthermore it would appear that in most countries the more nationalistic ones are the older population, with a much greater "global" population in the younger generations. Of course that in itself doesn't change a regime, so it's hard to say how it will play out.

There is a lot to unpack here. For once, I dont think there is much value in "truth" anymore. We live in a post-truth society. The enlightenment overcame "faith" in the pursuite of truth through sience. But the truth has become something that people seek to controle, its not objective by any means. For a long time science stood in the way of a complete loss of an objective truth but looking at the reaction of societies around the globe to the covid pandemic I think sience is loosing that battle too. A vast amount of people put far more trust into their own beliefes then in any objective facts.

So its all about controlling emotions and beliefe systems, not so much about truths.

And here is where we run into a bit of trouble. The sanctions hurt the ordinary people in russia and the very first reaction to beeing hurt is not backing off and trying to understand why you are hurt. Its rather the opposite. When the allies bombed german civilians during WW2 they hoped to demoralize the population and lower the war support. But in reality this had the opposite effect: People rallied behind the regime and war support rose. Revanchism is sadly a standard human reaction to an percived attack.

 

[STURM]

At a later stage the aim we also to hit workers at home to prevent them from manning the factories. By and large raids on German towns and cities played a big part in effecting morale but it took a while. The killer for the Germans were the raids on factories, transport facilities, oil facilities, etc.