I can only speak of this from an Asian perspective, which Ananda is speaking of. It is very common (at least in the circles I have) to have a general distrust of statements that have an value statements around right or wrong. The general sentiment is the West will always come up with some highfalutin principles to justify actions. Probably why the non-aligned movement started here. Most asean statements are carefully calibrate to avoid such statements, as an example.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,622
It really is a mystery what exactly he wants. If we interpret what he says and take it at face value (both questionable propositions at best) then it seems he wants a de-militarized Ukraine devoid of nationalist ideology, and not pressing for NATO or EU membership with a recognition of independence for the LDNR and recognition of Russian Crimea. But this amounts to a near total surrender and I honestly don't know that Zelenskiy will agree to it. Of course the alternative may involve losing half or more of his country...
Is this about actions "the West" are taking? Or Russia? The actions I'm struggling to see justification for are that of Russia.
What do you mean by the term "nationalist ideology"? I interpret that as their existence as a nation. That's absurd. And having just been attacked unprovoked by Russia, Ukraine being de-militarized would the exact opposite of what they'll do.
I can't see Ukraine accepting any of these terms, and nor should they.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,624
Probably not to that extent, but definitely to ban things like Azov, S14, etc. Likely at least regional language status for Russian language, region by region. This is just my guess of his intent. Like I've said, I really don't know. There might be other goals here.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Why there can't be a logic he will stop after Ukraine ? What's wrong with the logic that he will not move to NATO eastern members, unless he's being push too. He already says his red line is Ukraine. He wants and wish NATO to pull back from East, but he doesn't say it's his Red line.
I'm talking about the his red line, has he ever saying Finland and Sweden also his red line ? Off course he's going to say Russia will not like Sweden and Finland to joining NATO. However did Putin position put them as Red Line too ?
That's what I'm saying different perspective and different logic from beginning. West can't accept that for Russia the other ex USSR is their Red Line. Putin already see Russia being trick on letting ex Baltic joining NATO, he will not let that happen again with Ukraine for one thing.
Like I say, if everyone trying only the see on their own perspective, then it will be escalating their own different positions. If West and Russia choose to do that, then that's their choice. However prepared on the consequences, prepared for Cold War 2.0 as this's consequences of both action.
Off course all the previous action is inter connected. Reaction will create counter reaction. That's simple basic logic.
You're twisting my word, I'm talking on NATO vs Russia. Russia and Ukraine is just part of the consequences. Whatever Ukraine and Russia going to do in their own compromise is their own problem. It is their blood that spilled right now, not Western blood.
However in the eyes on Putin and some in the Russian, NATO still eventually will going to take Ukraine in. Russia want West to put in writing that they will not going to expand East from present position. West say it is unacceptable demand. So like I said, refusing to compromise on each other positions will escalate.
You're seems follow the Western logic that whoever not agreeing on Western logic will fall to Russian logic. That's why many in West still not understand why many in Asia for example at this moment choose to sitting in the fence. Because some of them simply see this is not as simple as Black and White as West try to potrait.
Many Western media seems confuse why many of those who agree on Western sponsor UN General Assembly resolution, will not yet follow West effort to completely isolated Russia. That's because many in West only seeing in their own logic, and didn't see it potential of anyone else not completely see as in Western logic.
Just like you accuse me on following Russian logic as my own. While from beginning I already say it's Russian logic, as I try to see both logic while sitting in the fence.
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Putin also claimed that the build-up was just an exercise, not to mention the actions he is now taking against his own people.
There is no indication that he means what he says.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Off course Putin is erratic wild card. That's why I try to see from both side. Putin also know, Invasion to east European that already in NATO is different thing than invasion to Ukraine.
NATO react by increasing the defense on Poland and Baltic states is right thing to do on any logic. NATO will be a fool if they don't do it, as one reaction will create counter reaction.
Still this is not a definite evidence that Putin will invade NATO eastern members after Ukraine. NATO is right to increase their defense in East, after all Cold War 2.0 already coming.
1. Agreed.
2. It’s not a Cold War, NATO is fighting Russian by supporting a proxy, just as the Soviets supported their proxy in the Korean War.
(a) It is now Day 20 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine — with plan A, totally failed. In plan A, Putin wanted to decapitate the Ukrainian government but he did not commit nearly enough combat power to that political-strategic objective. In the last 17 days, Russia has deployed its ground combat power on a single mission that it hoped would be over quickly. This was not a calculated risk by the Russians; it was a gamble. There is a big difference between the two in military ops.
(b) Russian Plan B is a multi-axis ‘battle of attrition.’ It features lots more firepower, as well as destruction of smaller cities to set an example for Kyiv. But their Plan B may have slowly gained ground, but at massive cost and loss of rear area security. This is obviously a trade off by the Russians so they can push forward. But rear area security is a significant mission, and normally absorbs thousands of troops.
(c) Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, told CBS News that Russia is running out of time, ammunition and manpower as a “quick operation” turned into a war of attrition. If Ukraine can hold onto key cities till day 26 to day 37, the Russian multi-axis offensive will reach the point at which continuing the attack is no longer possible and the force must consider reverting to a defensive posture or an operational pause. If Ukraine can’t hold on for the next 2 weeks, you can see progressive collapse of defensive lines.
(d) To put pressure on the Russian advance, Ukrainian forces shelled Kherson airport. There have also been unconfirmed reports about Ukrainian forces having launched a counter-attack towards Kherson.
(e) Lviv and the Yavoriv training base, was recently hit with 30 Russian missiles, early Sunday, the local governor said. Why? It is where the Ukrainian military is running ops from. It is also where western intelligence is being fed into the Ukrainian military. A Russian attack on Lviv achieves two things - it targets the Ukrainian military HQ, and it — if successful, severs the link (or makes the link much more difficult) between western intelligence and the Ukrainian military.
3. Russia does not possess the capability to hit moving targets like weapons convoys with standoff cruise missiles — this is why the PMs of Poland, Czechia and Slovenia can take a train into Kyiv — but there is still significant risk involved. This means in order for the Russians to interdict or destroy logistics shipments to Ukraine’s front-lines they will not only need actionable intelligence but also special operations forces deployed deep in territory that is not even near areas under Russia's control. This greatly complicates achieving the objective of stopping weapons shipments.4. President Zelenskyy’s meeting with the prime ministers of Poland, Czechia and Slovenia, is an important gesture of solidarity and support from foreign leaders. IMO, the decision of the PMs of Poland, Czechia & Slovenia to go to Kyiv is based on the need to show that Europe must be willing “to take higher risks” and that Ukraine can’t be allowed to fall.
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- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,629
Update.
Another map, grain of salt, etc.
Kiev.
Air defenses firing at allegedly Russian UAVs over Kiev.
Battle damage in Kiev.
t.me
The Artem missile factory in Kiev got hit. They produce ATGMs, and AAMs.
vk.com
Satellite footage of battle damage to the Antonov plant in Kiev.
t.me
Presumably territorial defense on the streets of Kiev.
vk.com
A video confirming Zelenskiy is still in Kiev.
t.me
Brazilian volunteers in Kiev.
Around Kiev.
Russian VDV D-30s near Kiev.
vk.com
t.me
Ukrainian Javelins, Panzerfaust-3s, and MANPADS, captured near Kiev.
vk.com
t.me
Russian 106th VDV near Kiev.
vk.com
Borodyanka, Russian humanitarian aid near Kiev.
vk.com
The North.
Russian Orlan-10 found Ukrainian military vehicles in Chernigov near the train station. Artillery strikes followed.
vk.com
Allegedly a Ukrainian Tochka was fired into Belarus but was intercepted.
vk.com
Kharkov-Sumy.
Fighting around Kharkov.
A residential building in Kharkov got hit, it may have been housing troops.
t.me
Impuls', a plant in Sumy that manufactures detonators, hit,
t.me
Russian recon elements around Kharkov.
vk.com
A Russian troop column moving to Ukraine, Sumy region.
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrvosk.
Fuel dump near Nikopol' got hit, near Dnepropetrovsk.
vk.com
t.me
Dnepropetrovsk airport got hit.
vk.com
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Nikolaev got hit again.
Ukrainian Su-25 shot down in Kherson, 19 blue.
vk.com
vk.com
t.me
Russian BM-30s and support vehicles in Kherson.
vk.com
t.me
Weapons collection continues in Kherson region.
vk.com
LDNR Front.
Battle damage in Donetsk, Makeevka.
t.me
A bridge blown in Bogorodichnoe north of Slavyansk. Presumably these are Russian forces advancing from Kharkov region south-ward.
t.me
t.me
A destroyed bridge in Drobyshevo, north-east of Slavyansk.
t.me
Allegedly Ukrainian BRDM-2 ATGM carrier near Popasnaya, destroyed.
vk.com
Ukrainian Strela-10 destroyed in Lisichansk.
Abandoned Ukrainian GAZ-66 comms vehicle on the road from Svatovo to Severodonetsk.
t.me
Rebel BMP-1 and BM-21 captured by Ukrainian forces, LNR area.
Russian Su-25s north of Donetsk.
vk.com
t.me
Russian Mi-28s near Popasnaya, Golubovskoe.
vk.com
t.me
DNR Msta-B getting towed, location unknown.
vk.com
The DNR is taking 80 vans and SUVs from Chechnya.
vk.com
Captured Ukranian 2S1 and 3 BTRs, location unclear. They're being prepared for rebel service.
t.me
Mariupol'.
Rebel fighter sitting on an SPG-9 near the destroyed BTR-4. This is from the DNR 9th regiment.
vk.com
Destroyed Ukrainian armored car near Volnovakha.
A Georgian volunteer reports 5 of his countrymen were wounded at Volnovakha, and subsequently evacuated.
t.me
Footage out of Volnovakha, March 14th.
vk.com
Russian National Guard with patrol boats in Berdyansk.
vk.com
Russia continues to broadcast surrender messages to Ukrainian troops on the radio, in Mariupol'.
vk.com
Unconfirmed reports of 2000 civilian cars leaving Mariupol' safely.
t.me
Evacuation also continues around Mariupol'.
t.me
DNR forces going by friendly locals, near Mariupol'.
vk.com
t.me
A DNR BTR-70M flying the black-yellow-white Russian Empire flag, in Volnovakha.
vk.com
t.me
The West.
Russian missile strikes near Odessa, Mirniy.
vk.com
Ukrainian forces on the streets of Odessa.
vk.com
A person taped to a pole in Dubno, near Rovno, for selling moonshine.
vk.com
Store lines in Mariupol'.
Misc.
Allegedly two Ukrainian BMPs getting hit, location unknown.
vk.com
A previously unseen type of thermal decoy part of the Iskander missile system.
vk.com
Anti-tank barriers being produced in Ukraine.
vk.com
Ukrainian marines operating the Panzerfaust-3.
t.me
Azov fighter holding an MG-42. Location unknown.
t.me
Ukrainian 2S3 damaged, location unclear.
Allegedly military equipment meant for Ukraine is being delivered as humanitarian aid from the Baltics. I find this problematic since it opens the door on trucks marked as humanitarian aid as targets.
t.me
Another map, grain of salt, etc.
Kiev.
Air defenses firing at allegedly Russian UAVs over Kiev.
Battle damage in Kiev.
Юрий Ткачёв
Киев, взрывной волной зацепило фасад станции Лукьяновская. Через дорогу - военный завод "Артём".
t.me
The Artem missile factory in Kiev got hit. They produce ATGMs, and AAMs.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Satellite footage of battle damage to the Antonov plant in Kiev.
Dambiev
Спутниковый снимок с результатом ракетного удара по производственному комплексу украинского КБ "Антонов" в Святошинском районе Киева.
t.me
Presumably territorial defense on the streets of Kiev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A video confirming Zelenskiy is still in Kiev.
Colonelcassad
Первое действительно достоверное видео нахождения Зеленского в Киеве. Интересно, каким образом его туда провезли.
t.me
Brazilian volunteers in Kiev.
Around Kiev.
Russian VDV D-30s near Kiev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition
❗️Артиллерия ВДВ РФ у переднего края под Киевом. До позиций противника 4 км. Батарея Д-30 поддерживает огнем парней, которые ведут наступательные действия в районе Мощуна. Десантникам удалось форсировать Ирпень. Несмотря на то, что ВСУ использует укреп. район времен ВОВ, бойцы Армии России...
t.me
Ukrainian Javelins, Panzerfaust-3s, and MANPADS, captured near Kiev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Центр Рубеж
ВСУ продолжает поставки ПТРК «Джавелин» в ВДВ России. Российские десантники под Киевом бьют противника в районе Мощуна. Противник отступает и оставляет подарки. @epoddubny Подпишись @WAR[Z]ONE
t.me
Russian 106th VDV near Kiev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Borodyanka, Russian humanitarian aid near Kiev.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The North.
Russian Orlan-10 found Ukrainian military vehicles in Chernigov near the train station. Artillery strikes followed.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly a Ukrainian Tochka was fired into Belarus but was intercepted.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Kharkov-Sumy.
Fighting around Kharkov.
A residential building in Kharkov got hit, it may have been housing troops.
Colonelcassad
Вчера днем был нанесен удар по дому на улице Свободы, 8 в центре Харькова, который разрушил один из подъездов. По словам мэра города, здание было исключительно жилым гражданским обьектом. Однако при этом на одном из кадров (0:21) съемки с места удара отчетливо виден лежащий выстрел от РПГ-7...
t.me
Impuls', a plant in Sumy that manufactures detonators, hit,
Денацификация UA
Нанесён ракетный удар по заводу "Импульс" в Сумской области Это единственное на Украине предприятие, где производились средства взрывания - капсюли-детонаторы, электродетонаторы, детонирующие шнуры и т.п.
t.me
Russian recon elements around Kharkov.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A Russian troop column moving to Ukraine, Sumy region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrvosk.
Fuel dump near Nikopol' got hit, near Dnepropetrovsk.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Colonelcassad
В 22.40 Мск ВС РФ нанесли удар по складу ГСМ, расположенному между н.п.Алексеевка и Никополь на юге Криворожской области. Судя по всему, принято решение продолжить нанесение огневого поражения в интересах группировки, наступающей на Кривой Рог и Никополь. На данный момент ВС РФ продолжают...
t.me
Dnepropetrovsk airport got hit.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Nikolaev got hit again.
Ukrainian Su-25 shot down in Kherson, 19 blue.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Военный Осведомитель
Обломки сбитого штурмовика Су-25 ВВС Украины в Херсонской области. Видео на канале Мурада Газдиева.
t.me
Russian BM-30s and support vehicles in Kherson.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Военный Осведомитель
Российские 300-мм РСЗО БМ-30 «Смерч» со своими ТЗМ и машинами обеспечениями в Херсоне.
t.me
Weapons collection continues in Kherson region.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
LDNR Front.
Battle damage in Donetsk, Makeevka.
Говорит Москва
Обстановка в Макеевке после обстрела со стороны украинских военных ракетой «Точка У». Медики увозят пострадавших. Минздрав ДНР уточнил, что среди них трое детей.
t.me
A bridge blown in Bogorodichnoe north of Slavyansk. Presumably these are Russian forces advancing from Kharkov region south-ward.
Военкор Андрей Камыжикин
Богородичное, взорванный мост ВСУ бегут к Славянску и взрывают за собой мосты. Нам сообщают, что в самом Богородичном сейчас очень жестоко. Означает это только одно - освобождение от нацистов уже близко, пошла наземная фаза операции. @anna_news @akimapachev @diza_donbass
t.me
Военкор Андрей Камыжикин
Фото моста в Богородичном Минувшей ночью отступающие части ВСУ взорвали мост. Связи между Богородичным и Святогорском больше нету. @anna_news @akimapachev @diza_donbass
t.me
A destroyed bridge in Drobyshevo, north-east of Slavyansk.
BelVestnik
⚡Взорванный мост в Дробышево. Это уже третий уничтоженный мост за последние сутки. Сначала были взорваны мосты в Богородичном и Николаевке.
t.me
Allegedly Ukrainian BRDM-2 ATGM carrier near Popasnaya, destroyed.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian Strela-10 destroyed in Lisichansk.
Abandoned Ukrainian GAZ-66 comms vehicle on the road from Svatovo to Severodonetsk.
ЛуганскИнформЦентр Z
⚡️⚡️⚡️ На трассе из Сватово в сторону Северодонецка можно встретить много военной техники, брошенной вооруженными формированиями Украины при отступлении
t.me
Rebel BMP-1 and BM-21 captured by Ukrainian forces, LNR area.
Russian Su-25s north of Donetsk.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Colonelcassad
Су-25 к северу от Донецка. Видимо поддерживают наступление в районе Верхнеторецкого.
t.me
Russian Mi-28s near Popasnaya, Golubovskoe.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
ЛуганскИнформЦентр Z
⚡️ «Получайте, фашисты! За Донецк ответите!» — жители поселка Голубовское о работе вертолетов ВКС России, наносящих удары по позициям вооруженных формирований Украины.
t.me
DNR Msta-B getting towed, location unknown.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
The DNR is taking 80 vans and SUVs from Chechnya.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Captured Ukranian 2S1 and 3 BTRs, location unclear. They're being prepared for rebel service.
СМОТРИ
⚡️ Брошенная техника ВСУ сразу же переходит на вооружение ополчения ЛНР При наступлении сил Донбасса бойцы ВСУ бросают свое оружие и технику. ▶️ @smotri_media
t.me
Mariupol'.
Rebel fighter sitting on an SPG-9 near the destroyed BTR-4. This is from the DNR 9th regiment.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Destroyed Ukrainian armored car near Volnovakha.
A Georgian volunteer reports 5 of his countrymen were wounded at Volnovakha, and subsequently evacuated.
Грузинский прохожий
⚡️Один из грузинских боевиков Гиорги Руситашвили сообщил, что под Волновахой было ранено 5 его соотечественников, один погиб. Получившие ранения добровольцы были временно размещены в местной больнице, однако впоследствии в спешке эвакуированы в связи с наступлением российских войск. @georgia_man
t.me
Footage out of Volnovakha, March 14th.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russian National Guard with patrol boats in Berdyansk.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Russia continues to broadcast surrender messages to Ukrainian troops on the radio, in Mariupol'.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Unconfirmed reports of 2000 civilian cars leaving Mariupol' safely.
МИГ России
Хорошие новости из Мариуполя Благодаря сохранению "режима тишины" украинской и российской стороной, сегодня из Мариуполя выехало около 2 тысяч легковых машин. Каких либо происшествий по маршрутам их следования не произошло. Напоминаем, что самый безопасный выезд - автобусом в составе...
t.me
Evacuation also continues around Mariupol'.
ANNA NEWS
Российские военные продолжают эвакуацию жителей из Мариуполя Из освобождённых районов на северо-западе города планируется вывезти 1000 человек, включая 70 иностранных граждан. Примечательно, что среди них находятся в том числе сотрудники миссии ОБСЕ. Если хотите помочь нашему волонтерскому...
t.me
DNR forces going by friendly locals, near Mariupol'.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны
Храни Господь русских воинов: бабушка крестит бойцов, едущих освобождать Мариуполь t.me/RVvoenkor
t.me
A DNR BTR-70M flying the black-yellow-white Russian Empire flag, in Volnovakha.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
ДонеZкий
В центре волновахи вот такая вот надпись сохранилась. Казалось бы, памятник посвящен войне, которая закончилась без малого 80 лет назад, а актуальность ее не стала меньше. Слава воинам-освободителям Донбасса!!
t.me
The West.
Russian missile strikes near Odessa, Mirniy.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian forces on the streets of Odessa.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A person taped to a pole in Dubno, near Rovno, for selling moonshine.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Store lines in Mariupol'.
Misc.
Allegedly two Ukrainian BMPs getting hit, location unknown.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A previously unseen type of thermal decoy part of the Iskander missile system.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Anti-tank barriers being produced in Ukraine.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Ukrainian marines operating the Panzerfaust-3.
Ясиноватая, Донбасс на линии огня
Немецкие противотанковые гранатометы #PzFst3. Находятся на вооружении морпехов ВСУ.
t.me
Azov fighter holding an MG-42. Location unknown.
Военкор Котенок
Боевик "Азова" позирует с "пилой Гитлера" — немецким пулемётом MG-42 времен Второй мировой @voenkorKotenok
t.me
Ukrainian 2S3 damaged, location unclear.
Allegedly military equipment meant for Ukraine is being delivered as humanitarian aid from the Baltics. I find this problematic since it opens the door on trucks marked as humanitarian aid as targets.
Colonelcassad
Вот как под видом гуманитарной помощи происходит снабжение украинской армии. Гражданин Латвии Мартинс Вилюмс поставляет квадроциклы, рации, приборы ночного видения, бинокли, наколенники, налобные фонари, портативные зарядки, планшеты, спальные мешки и прочие предметы для военных нужд...
t.me
Russia was weak in the 1990's and was focused on.domestic issues and other issues but that was a period when NATO had already started expanding. During the 1990's Russian perception of NATO was also very different to what it is now.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Somehow either Putin or Some in his General staff and Intelligence still thinking that they can easily out manuver Ukrainian forces like they did in Crimea. When clearly Ukraine not prepared in 2014 and now is different situation.
It is either delutional thinking, or simply gross intelligence miss calculation.
Putin now has no other choice asside committed big time, including taking troops from East that supposed to be guarding Russian flank with China. Perhaps that's the real deal with what Xi and Putin build.
Either way, Putin will only have limited time available. That's why it's imperative for Ukraine to hold Kyiv, Kharkov and Odessa. Losing one of them can still make holding on possible. Loosing two of them, then everything for Ukraine will crumble. Both side seems clearly aware on this.
It is the era of new Cold War that I mean. Whether after this, China and Russia standing closer together, still open to more speculations. However the indication is there. Xi off course now making his own calculation on how to progress after this with Taiwan and SCS.
However one thing that more sure, after this China will can dominate Russian market more. Either on resources or commercial. They will taking the void that's left by Western companies.
It will be like beginning on previous Cold War. Difference is Stalin put Mao as his Junior Partner. This new Cold war will be different, Xi that will put Putin as his junior Partner.
UNHCR said 1.4 million children, almost one per second, have left Ukraine since the invasion began on 24 Feb 2022. In total, over 3 million have fled in "Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since 1945".
Ukraine needs a lot more than weapons. Beyond UN aid agencies and the Red Cross, a number of countries are providing a serious amount of aid.
Ukraine needs a lot more than weapons. Beyond UN aid agencies and the Red Cross, a number of countries are providing a serious amount of aid.
- Japan announced that it will provide US$200 million in aid on 28 February 2022. Japan is also ready to extend at least US$100 million in emergency loans to Ukraine, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said.
- South Korea announced that it will provide US$10 million worth of humanitarian assistance on 28 February 2022.
- Finland's humanitarian aid to Ukraine in 2014–2022 will be €86 million.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Russia said to ease stance at talks, Zelensky says Ukraine accepts not joining NATO
Senior Israeli official reportedly says Bennett’s mediation efforts helped lead to 'narrowing of positions' between sides, as Turkish FM heads to Moscow, Kyiv amid diplomacy push
www.timesofisrael.com
On Ukraine-Russia war, I do like the read some of Israel media. They are more realistic on capturing things then Western Media that continue the path on Russia need to push down, and Ukraine will win with West help.
In the end it is Ukraine and Russia that shed blood in the ground, and both of them that has to meet the compromise. West can argue Ukraine should not settle anything asside Russia get out even from Crimea and Donbass. That's not compromise, but it is Russian surender. Whose going to do that ?
Ukrainian defense so far has make Russia begin trying to find compromise asside previous stance on total Ukrainian surrender. However even Ukraine knows asking Russian surender as West want is unreasonable. Even if they hold Kyiv, does not mean Ukraine can done much counter offensive to regain lost teritory, especialy in East and South.
Zelensky by saying no NATO membership, clearly shown Ukraine put Neutrality condition on the table, perhaps even in their consitution. The question remain on Donbas and Crimea. Would Ukraine accept seperate Republic of Donentsk and Luhansk? I suspect Ukraine will counter with wide range Autonomy for Russian Ethnics in Donentsk and Luhansk.
As for Crimea ? Russia now already hold both Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia clearly do not want to lose Crimea. Ukraine seems going to make compromise on Crimea if they want to regain back Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
On demilitarisation, after this invasion clearly will not be accepted by Ukraine. That's why I suspect why Zelensky say in media possition that Ukraine will not going to be NATO member (or seek joining NATO). I suspect he will say to Putin, "I will keep my Military, but I will be Neutral". Neutrality is wide range conception, but I suspect Russia will demand Ukraine not ever entertaint Western military in their soil, even for joint exercise.
All of this will depend on how Ukrainian going to hold in the ground. However seems Russia clearly understand they are grossly underestimating Ukrainian defense. Compromise will not going to be like by some in the West, especialy in US. However it is Ukranian and Russian blood that in the ground. It is back to both of them on finding compromise, and not West.
Add:
Video on Zelensky talk that Ukraine will not seeking NATO membership (begin at 9:00)
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Several media have reported that Ukraine is saying they are not going to join NATO. They are also negotiating with Russia.
One thing to consider: If the main objective of the invasion was to stop Ukraine from becoming a NATO member, why don't Russia agree to at least a cease fire, now that Ukraine says they will not join NATO?
I believe it's an indication that the main objective of the invasion was not to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member, and this is why Russia don't stop their attacks.
Regarding the negotiations -- as far as I can recall Ukraine has asked before (before the latest invasion) to negotiate directly with Russia but Russia refused. Is this correct, or does my memory fail me?
As for NATO: Keep in mind that NATOs position has been (and still is) that it's up to Ukraine to decide whether to send application to NATO or not. No more, no less. The same holds true for other countries, including Sweden and Finland.
One thing to consider: If the main objective of the invasion was to stop Ukraine from becoming a NATO member, why don't Russia agree to at least a cease fire, now that Ukraine says they will not join NATO?
I believe it's an indication that the main objective of the invasion was not to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member, and this is why Russia don't stop their attacks.
Regarding the negotiations -- as far as I can recall Ukraine has asked before (before the latest invasion) to negotiate directly with Russia but Russia refused. Is this correct, or does my memory fail me?
As for NATO: Keep in mind that NATOs position has been (and still is) that it's up to Ukraine to decide whether to send application to NATO or not. No more, no less. The same holds true for other countries, including Sweden and Finland.
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GermanHerman
Active Member
Russia clearly wants to retain / regain ukriane as a client state.
Nato membership would make this Impossible, but so would an "neutral" Ukraine which is not somehow restrained from making independent decisions about certain topics.
It's a very big country with a considerable Population, prior to the invasion it was economicly on a better trajectory then russia. When the war ends today Ukraine will rebuild very fast and end up stronger then before. Within a couple of years they might be at a point where russia couldnt try another invasion.
This again would mean that it's lost as a client state to russia.
Russia needs to achive it's goal of "demilitarization".
Nato membership would make this Impossible, but so would an "neutral" Ukraine which is not somehow restrained from making independent decisions about certain topics.
It's a very big country with a considerable Population, prior to the invasion it was economicly on a better trajectory then russia. When the war ends today Ukraine will rebuild very fast and end up stronger then before. Within a couple of years they might be at a point where russia couldnt try another invasion.
This again would mean that it's lost as a client state to russia.
Russia needs to achive it's goal of "demilitarization".
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #1,637
It's pretty obvious why they don't stop the offensive. As soon as Russia declares a cease-fire, this takes pressure off Ukraine. What's potentially on the table is some sort of Minsk 3.0 agreement. However the Minsk 1 and 2 were duly signed by Ukraine and then simply not implemented. And Ukraine's already had a neutral status in it's constution before. Continuing the push until the agreement is literally signed or about to be is the best strategy for Russia because it puts a sense of urgency on Ukraine, and pressures them to concede more points then they otherwise would have. And remember after Minsk 1 got signed and ignored, Russia launched the Debal'tsevo offensive, which ended in a major military defeat for Ukraine, and led directly to the Mink 2 accords. I suspect that Russia will push for encirclement and fragmentation of Ukrainian forces in the east at the very least before signing the agreement.
And while we're at it, Russia has also recognized the LDNR. Whether they get autonomy within Ukraine or independence, they need control of their territory. And that means expelling Azov from Mariupol'. If an agreement is signed, fighting stops, and the Azov simply refuses to withdraw, now what? Kick them out by force? That would involve restarting the fighting, after giving Azov a break to resupply, treat their wounded, etc. Better to end them now, take Mariupol', and then not have this issue arise at all. The same applies, though somewhat less, to Ukrainian forces in Severdonetsk-Lisichansk area that are already surrounded, and Ukrainian forces across from Donetsk-Gorlovka area. Defeat of these forces would shift the balance in a significant way.
Unless Ukraine accepts Crimea as part of Russia, the LDNR as independent, and neutral status, I don't see an agreement happening now. If Russia manages to clear out Mariupol' (almost guaranteed) and Severdonets-Lisichansk (quite likely) then Russia's negotiating position will be greatly strengthened. If the Donest-Gorlovka forces end up encircled by Russian elements moving out of Zaporozhye area and through Izyum, even more so. This last one, in my opinion, will be the battle that has the biggest impact, and it hasn't even started yet.
Pretty obvious where they are headed with this. Ok Russia, we won't join NATO, you got one of the things you claimed you wanted. But we'll just form a new alliance not called NATO. Not too far fetched to see Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine kicking this off as founding members. This wouldn't happen in the short term but I could see it happening gradually over the next few years.
Article from the wall street journal via Rob Lee
"Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.
Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city."
and the Kerson airport attack
Significant russian losses in both battles possibly in the neighborhood of 100 pieces of russian equipment
Something Else I am curious about, early on in the war most of the footage I had seen was of ambush attacks with ATGM's RPG's etc. It seems now more video is emerging on Ukrainian artillery strikes. Is this a change in strategy by the Ukrainians. A change in the military situation? Is Ukraine much stronger now relative to the russian forces that they are now better able to employ artillery strikes or is it just perception bias on my part?
"Judging from the destroyed and abandoned armor, Ukrainian forces, which comprised local volunteers and the professional military, eliminated most of a Russian battalion tactical group on March 2 and 3.
Russian survivors of the Voznesensk battle left behind nearly 30 of their 43 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, multiple-rocket launchers and trucks, as well as a downed Mi-24 attack helicopter, according to Ukrainian officials in the city."
and the Kerson airport attack
Significant russian losses in both battles possibly in the neighborhood of 100 pieces of russian equipment
Something Else I am curious about, early on in the war most of the footage I had seen was of ambush attacks with ATGM's RPG's etc. It seems now more video is emerging on Ukrainian artillery strikes. Is this a change in strategy by the Ukrainians. A change in the military situation? Is Ukraine much stronger now relative to the russian forces that they are now better able to employ artillery strikes or is it just perception bias on my part?
HelBattery
Member
Very interesting interview with the commander of the DNR's "Vostok" battalion on the situation near Mariupol (in Russian):
In short: the Ukrainians report that there are about 14,500 of their soldiers in the city. According to the commander of "Vostok", this number should be divided by two. The forces of the besiegers are comparable and de facto only sufficient to maintain the blockade of the city. The operations are carried out slowly and they consist in the gradual capture of territory along the entire front, without trying to make deep breaches in the defense, because that would mean "losses, losses, losses." They use lessons learned from the second war with Chechnya. They provoke the enemy to expose their firing positions, horizontal and vertical, and only then they plan and execute attacks. The defenses have already been broken into separate segments, and a lack of coordination can be observed. The besiegers lack tanks and artillery needed to eliminate vertical defenses (in buildings). They rely on support such as air support from the regular army, often bypassing procedures, chain of command - what matters is "interpersonal" contacts. Chechen troops who participate in the siege lack experience, which "Vostok" has been gaining since 2014. And they are even more lightly armed than "Vostok". The commander of "Vostok" describes the raid of the Chechens with a truck "kamaz" - they broke into the city, shot here and there, the truck was shot and destroyed, the killed Chechens were finally taken from the battlefield, but the benefit of the whole action was none. For the commander of "Vostok" the most important thing is to avoid unnecessary "shturmovshchina" (bravado in the attack), it is necessary to act methodically and reasonably.
In short: the Ukrainians report that there are about 14,500 of their soldiers in the city. According to the commander of "Vostok", this number should be divided by two. The forces of the besiegers are comparable and de facto only sufficient to maintain the blockade of the city. The operations are carried out slowly and they consist in the gradual capture of territory along the entire front, without trying to make deep breaches in the defense, because that would mean "losses, losses, losses." They use lessons learned from the second war with Chechnya. They provoke the enemy to expose their firing positions, horizontal and vertical, and only then they plan and execute attacks. The defenses have already been broken into separate segments, and a lack of coordination can be observed. The besiegers lack tanks and artillery needed to eliminate vertical defenses (in buildings). They rely on support such as air support from the regular army, often bypassing procedures, chain of command - what matters is "interpersonal" contacts. Chechen troops who participate in the siege lack experience, which "Vostok" has been gaining since 2014. And they are even more lightly armed than "Vostok". The commander of "Vostok" describes the raid of the Chechens with a truck "kamaz" - they broke into the city, shot here and there, the truck was shot and destroyed, the killed Chechens were finally taken from the battlefield, but the benefit of the whole action was none. For the commander of "Vostok" the most important thing is to avoid unnecessary "shturmovshchina" (bravado in the attack), it is necessary to act methodically and reasonably.