The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Question: Are there significant Ukraine military units West of Ukraine? From Lviv to Zhytomyr?

The current conflict seems to be fairly static. The main Ukrainian forces fall back to the cities and defend key approaches while small units attack from the rear. As Kyiv gets encircled, are there forces that could potentially hit the Russians from West to break the encirclement? The Russian forces will then be caught between Kyiv and the western forces. Otherwise, any of such sieges is just a game of attrition.
The same can be said for the southern salient.
 

phreeky

Active Member
And we still have not seen a justification for this terrible war of attrition. The latest attempt at justification seems to be the lie that Ukraine is developing biological weapons. Last week it was Nuclear weapons. What will it be next week?
The first lie was that it was a "Special Operation" aimed at "Denazification", and the changing justification shows desperation at looking for something that will convince the general population of the actions. TBH I think the vast majority of stuff posted on Telegram and vk.com is just repeating Russian propaganda.

The main Ukrainian forces fall back to the cities and defend key approaches while small units attack from the rear. As Kyiv gets encircled, are there forces that could potentially hit the Russians from West to break the encirclement?
It will be intriguing to see what comes from behind, particularly with some of the reported number of foreign volunteer fighters who have entered the country and with western equipment.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Allegedly a mass burial in Mariupol', unclear if civilian or military.

I've seen video of burials on what looked like the same site, & was said to be in Mariupol'. As in those pictures, some bodies weren't properly bagged up. The legs of one were visible: a woman wearing a skirt & stockings. No sign of any uniforms on any of the others which were partly seen. Looked completely civilian as far as could be seen from the video.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Russia has now attacked 3 new cities: Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipro.

Dnipro is in the east, however Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk are both very far west. To my knowledge this is the first time Russia is attacking towns in the far west of Ukraine.

Macron said after a phone call with Putin some days ago that Putin had expressed that his target was "the whole" of Ukraine.

However, seeing how Russia is struggling in the East, I wonder if they have the capacity to also attack Wester Ukraine? Perhaps these attacks are just to distract and confuse? Or are they really aiming to occupy the whole of Ukraine?


More and more Civilian targets are being hit. The war of Attrition that Russia has now launched is going to cost, but the highest costs is not in dollars or rubles, it is in human suffering.

And we still have not seen a justification for this terrible war of attrition. The latest attempt at justification seems to be the lie that Ukraine is developing biological weapons. Last week it was Nuclear weapons. What will it be next week?
As reported by a number of Western media outlets, airfields were the only targets in the west. Those are being targeted for obvious reasons. It is not an indication Putin intends to take those cities.

Putin's official reasons for this "special operation" were to "demilitarize" and "denazify" Ukraine. He could withdraw a after significantly degrading Ukrainian military capabilities and taking out some AZOV and claim mission accomplished. Having recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, his other aim is to take and occupy those Oblasts plus surrounding areas (to what extent he will extend the line farther east and south is yet to be seen). It is also clear he intends to safeguard Crimea and its water supply etc., perhaps take the entire coast, as others here have posted.

I've seen video of burials on what looked like the same site, & was said to be in Mariupol'. As in those pictures, some bodies weren't properly bagged up. The legs of one were visible: a woman wearing a skirt & stockings. No sign of any uniforms on any of the others which were partly seen. Looked completely civilian as far as could be seen from the video.
I have some doubts about these photos -- could they be old photos from 2014/2015 in the LDNR area? If the photos are genuine, the people who are being buried do not appear to be valued civilians killed by shelling, etc., but appearances can sometimes be deceiving, so I'll leave that a question mark in my mind.

The Ukrainians are claiming over a thousand civilians have been killed in Mariupol since the beginning of the invasion, while international agencies are reporting about half that many confirmed civilian deaths from Russian action in the entire country, with likely many more awaiting verification. As there appears to be good communication with hospitals and with healthcare NGOs in Mariupol, I question the Ukrainian figure somewhat, but don't dismiss it, either.

If the Ukrainian figure is correct, they may well have exhausted their supply of coffins and bodybags, and with no electricity and temperatures above freezing, obviously need to bury their dead without them. But in a city that size, they could surely have managed better makeshift bodybags for their own people. Who was taking the photos and videos and why?

Perhaps, as claimed in the caption, these were civilians killed by AZOV. Perhaps they were civilians killed by shelling, as Ukrainian media claim. Or perhaps these are old photos being used as propaganda on both sides. "Mass graves" always get media attention.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I have some doubts about these photos -- could they be old photos from 2014/2015 in the LDNR area? If the photos are genuine, the people who are being buried do not appear to be valued civilians killed by shelling, etc., but appearances can sometimes be deceiving, so I'll leave that a question mark in my mind.
The scene shown in those photos is shown in a video clip in this news report, transmitted yesterday. It runs from 59 seconds in to 2 minutes 14 seconds. The location, the trench, the truck & the people are all obviously identical.
Russia Ukraine conflict: Food and water running out in devastated Mariupol

I've seen other fragments from the same scene. Haven't found the one with the woman's legs again, though. I'm trying to remember where I saw it. I've seen a lot of scenes shown in multiple reports, sometimes from different angles.

the people who are being buried do not appear to be valued civilians killed by shelling, etc
When you're in a siege, short of everything including potable water, & a lot of people are being killed, elaborate funerals tend to be thought of as an unnecessary luxury. At least they're being buried, not left in the streets.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
At some point the Russian's will have to move on Kyiv.
This is what they can expect.
So what chance does a poorly performed, demoralised, under provisioned bunch of conscripts realistically have of taking Kyiv?

My feeling is that it will be a complete disaster.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Ukrainians are claiming over a thousand civilians have been killed in Mariupol since the beginning of the invasion, while international agencies are reporting about half that many confirmed civilian deaths from Russian action in the entire country, with likely many more awaiting verification. As there appears to be good communication with hospitals and with healthcare NGOs in Mariupol, I question the Ukrainian figure somewhat, but don't dismiss it, either.

If the Ukrainian figure is correct, they may well have exhausted their supply of coffins and bodybags, and with no electricity and temperatures above freezing, obviously need to bury their dead without them. But in a city that size, they could surely have managed better makeshift bodybags for their own people. Who was taking the photos and videos and why?

Perhaps, as claimed in the caption, these were civilians killed by AZOV. Perhaps they were civilians killed by shelling, as Ukrainian media claim. Or perhaps these are old photos being used as propaganda on both sides. "Mass graves" always get media attention.
Mariupol' is cut off, the urban assault taking place is going to cause serious collateral damage, and the defending force is not known for good behavior either. It's really hard to tell what's going on. I'm hoping Russia will open the city to press and aid once it falls, and that should yield plenty of conversations with locals.

I've seen video of burials on what looked like the same site, & was said to be in Mariupol'. As in those pictures, some bodies weren't properly bagged up. The legs of one were visible: a woman wearing a skirt & stockings. No sign of any uniforms on any of the others which were partly seen. Looked completely civilian as far as could be seen from the video.
It would make sense that it's civilians. If they were military I'd expect to see military personnel taking part in the burial.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
The scene shown in those photos is shown in a video clip in this news report, transmitted yesterday. It runs from 59 seconds in to 2 minutes 14 seconds. The location, the trench, the truck & the people are all obviously identical.
Russia Ukraine conflict: Food and water running out in devastated Mariupol

I've seen other fragments from the same scene. Haven't found the one with the woman's legs again, though. I'm trying to remember where I saw it. I've seen a lot of scenes shown in multiple reports, sometimes from different angles.


When you're in a siege, short of everything including potable water, & a lot of people are being killed, elaborate funerals tend to be thought of as an unnecessary luxury. At least they're being buried, not left in the streets.
Of course elaborate funerals are out of the question. What I saw in the video is exactly what I would expect to see in that situation. What I saw in the photos was a bit questionable, as those photos showed bodies loosely wrapped in nothing but a sheet or slung from a tarp.

When all the body bags, industrial waste bags, etc., have been depleted, bodies are normally encased in large trash bags or at the least, inside duvet covers and the like (garbage bags preferred, of course).. Bodies of people killed by the enemy are rarely just thrown in a ditch with little to no covering -- people really do try to do their best for loved ones, neighbors, fellow citizens even in such dire circumstances, at least in my own sad experience. It also makes the task less gruesome for the burial crews. Bodies of the enemy or the wrong ethnicity sometimes do not receive such care (duvet cover, etc.). Again, according to my own sad experience, which was not in Ukraine, but places where similar scenarios occurred.

The photos gave the impression all or most of the bodies were not encased in anything other than a loose sheet or tarp, with no attempt made to even twist the sheet so the body did not so easily fall out before dumping. This would indicate a total breakdown of organization and loss of humanity if the bodies were those of fellow citizens. While the situation in Mariupol is indeed dire and utterly heartbraking, one would not expect to see such total breakdown, at least not yet.

After viewing the video, I heard what I expect to hear (crews organizationed by municipal authorities for the task) and saw what I would expect to see. As for the bodies with little to no covering in the photos, several scenarios are possible, all of which are tragic.

Edit: There is much more to the suffering in these circumstances than war casualties. When the shelling starts, pregnant women go into labor, people at risk for stroke or heart attack have strokes and heart attacks. Emergency and medical personnel can be overwhelmed. More babies, including premature babies, than usual are being born, more stroke and heart attack victims -- and this on top of those injured in the shelling, etc. And this is just in the beginning. As time wears on, there are new tragedies.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Question: Are there significant Ukraine military units West of Ukraine? From Lviv to Zhytomyr?

The current conflict seems to be fairly static. The main Ukrainian forces fall back to the cities and defend key approaches while small units attack from the rear. As Kyiv gets encircled, are there forces that could potentially hit the Russians from West to break the encirclement? The Russian forces will then be caught between Kyiv and the western forces. Otherwise, any of such sieges is just a game of attrition.
The same can be said for the southern salient.
There are units there and some are being pulled. But the most combat ready units and equipment were concentrated around the LDNR front line.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Mariupol' is cut off, the urban assault taking place is going to cause serious collateral damage, and the defending force is not known for good behavior either. It's really hard to tell what's going on. I'm hoping Russia will open the city to press and aid once it falls, and that should yield plenty of conversations with locals.
I hope a humanitarian corridor can be opened very soon. Apparently, there were a number of civilian casualties from the shelling yesterday. I was hoping for updated information on that today from OCHA , but today there is only this:

"In Mariupol, the status of the repeatedly delayed safe passage corridor still remains unclear as the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly more dire with each passing hour. There have been reports of looting and violent confrontations among civilians over what little basic supplies remain in the city. Medicines for life-threatening illnesses are quickly running out, while hospitals are only partially functioning thanks to fuel deliveries from municipal authorities. The food and water supplies in the city are critically low, with relentless fighting preventing civilians from moving out and much-needed relief supplies from coming into the city. The Ukrainian Red Cross provided humanitarian relief supplies to affected people, including food, clothing and hygiene products."

Link: Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report (As of 3:00 p.m. (EET), 11 March 2022) - Ukraine

Yesterday' report has more info on Mariupol and refugee movements:
Ukraine: Humanitarian Impact Situation Report (As of 3:00 p.m. (EET), 10 March 2022) - Ukraine

You mentioned evacuations from Energodar and Dneprorudno. From information I have seen, "those who wished to leave" Dneprorudno and Vasylivka were invited to to join the convoy escorted by ICRC from Energodar to Zaporizhzhia (Dneprorudno and Vasylivka both being along the route). Today's IAEA report has some info on the Zaporizhzhia NPP in Energodar:

Update 18 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
My thoughts on this ambush

1. I am trying to look at this from an objective view point of proper weapons employment; plus fighting in a combined arms manner in an action—reaction cycle. No matter what we discuss below, the Ukrainian infantry have guts and will to fight, even when out numbered.
informative vid of Nlaw ambush on Russian armored column -
some fast dismounts
2. The Russian infantry are doing a dismount drill — it has to be fast — this is normal. The Russian Army is not as incompetent as many in Twitter like to present.

3. Let me break it down on why I suspect at least 1/3 of the Ukrainian infantry in this ambush died due to return fire by other Russian tanks in the column, before the ambush team can displace. The Russian IFV returned fire and 2 tanks in the column engaging after. 1 of the 2 tanks returning fire had a frontal hit which it probably survived.

3. My preference in any ambush is to have forces deployed such that my ATGM team can also attack the next few tanks in the column (followed by pre-registered artillery to kill dismounts in the kill zone). Artillery support is what will enable the ATGM team to break contact, to fight another day on an alternate location. Trained ATGM teams are very valuable; and they don’t just attack 1 tank at a time, they try to hit a whole platoon and bug out. The Russians gave effective fire to kill the ATGM team. The NLAW has is effective at ranges between 20 and 800 metres and was likely to have fired from 100 to 150 metres away from the tank. The Ukrainian infantry conducting the ambush has balls to fight at such close range.

4. Using a Singaporean or Estonian infantry TOE, my preference, would be 2 Spike SR (about the same as NLAW) to hit the 1st 2 tanks, followed by 3 to 4 Spike LR missiles (about the same as Javelin) to hit the next few tanks/IFVs, with 120mm mortar to follow, to enable the block force to break contact and displace to the next ambush location. The correct missile for the right job and the Spike SR has an effective range of 50-1,800 metres (depending on flight profile).

5. The 120mm mortar platoon would likely have to displace in 5 mins or less after the fire mission to avoid being hit by counter battery fire. Our artillery hunting radar will be watching for counter battery fire to enable the artillery brigade to kill enemy artillery that is attacking the 120mm mortar platoon (who are providing rounds in DS of the ATGM team).

6. We fight and think in layers of superiority, anticipating a logical response from our enemy, when we set up a kill box. Ukrainian / Taiwanese forces need to think like that if they are to fight out numbered in a delay battle.
 
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phreeky

Active Member
The Russian Army is not as incompetent as many in Twitter like to present.
I'm sure they have units of various calibre.

I must ask, surely there is normally some form of lookout that would spot infantry so close to them? Or the fact that there is a drone monitoring their movement? I would've thought there'd be thermal imaging or something similar to prevent such an ambush.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I must ask, surely there is normally some form of lookout that would spot infantry so close to them?
Once deployed, good infantry ATGM teams can give you the extract location of their deployment and you can’t see them from the air or on the ground. They will use terrain to mask their location — basic cover and concealment — bread & butter infantry skills.

My battalion’s ATGM team gave our exercise controller the exact location of deployment — after the CPT (who is the controller), gave up looking after 25 mins, the ATGM team stood up to let him know, they deployed in the correct location, and he had stepped into the ‘exercise’ minefield the pioneer section had laid in support of the ATGM team.

Below is footage of Singaporean conscripts at combined arms training at Exercise Wallaby 2019, in Australia.

Or the fact that there is a drone monitoring their movement? I would've thought there'd be thermal imaging or something similar to prevent such an ambush.
The video of the ambush is from a drone — I don’t want to say more about classified capabilities for route recce and other ISR capabilities (as there are limitations).
 
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Shanesworld

Well-Known Member
Once deployed, good infantry ATGM teams can give you the extract location of their deployment and you can’t see them from the air or on the ground. They will use terrain to mask their location — basic cover and concealment — bread & butter infantry skills.

My battalion’s ATGM team gave our exercise controller the exact location of deployment — after the CPT (who is the controller), gave up looking after 25 mins, the ATGM team stood up to let him know, they deployed in the correct location, and he had stepped into the ‘exercise’ minefield the pioneer section had laid in support of the ATGM team.
How long does it take for a atgm crew to properly emplace in that sort of scenario?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
How long does it take for a atgm crew to properly emplace in that sort of scenario?
I don’t want to provide that sort to specific timing info about our TTPs in an open source manner. Planning norms are not secret but it is not good form to explain in such detail.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I use to have an acquaintance here whose job during training and exercises was to drive or ride around looking for ambush teams up close. If he spotted them they ''failed'' and would have to start all over again. At times for added realism actual columns of vehicles would drive past the ambush teams. In rural areas or places with unpaved roads, IEDs would also be used in conjunction with ATGWs and the sides of the roads where enemy discounts would go to, were ringed with Claymores.

Infantry operated ATGWs are a battalion asset but RPGs and LAW are section issues; obviously mostly effective at close ranges or restricted terrain. Tactics call for shoulder fired weapons to be used in pairs; not necessarily to destroy a target but to make it mmobile or damage its sensors. For suppressive fire; the Milkor grenade launcher is also issued at section level.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
How long does it take for a atgm crew to properly emplace in that sort of scenario?
Depending. It there are pre registered sites or if the ATGW team is operating on friendly and familiar ground then it will not take long.

The Ukrainians are operating on broad frontages in terrain which is largely open and making them more visible from the air. The terrain OPSSG and me were referring to is thick with vegetation; making concealment much easier.
 
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Shanesworld

Well-Known Member
I don’t want to provide that sort to specific timing info about our TTPs in an open source manner. Planning norms are not secret but it is not good form to explain in such detail.
Fair enough-I can understand and respect that. Apologies for not thinking of that.
 
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