The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Which goes back to my question in an earlier post about whether the bulk of Russia's MBT losses were caused by the Javelin/MBT LAW combo or by older wire guided SACLOS systems.
As far as I can tell, the bulk of Russia's MBT losses come from tanks being abandoned due to mechanical faults, and subsequently captured or destroyed by locals/Ukrainian army.

Yes, Fukuyama was a fool. I read the book at the time and was unimpressed, it wasn't an end of history, turned out it was the beginning of great stupidity. Simultaneously the US neocons at the time were touting American triumphalism and happy to engage in wasteful wars of dubious need, that ultimately did great damage to the US. Also while distracted, the PRC stole the Americans lunch. Karma is a b#tch.

I just saw Lavarov say "We're not planning to attack other countries. We didn't even attack Ukraine." He went on to express concern about the danger Ukraine stingers present to civil aviation. I wish he had as much concern for the safety of civil aircraft before the Russian or Russian backed rebels shot down MH17 and 298 souls were lost.
It's staggeringly hypocritical to be concerned over the threat posed by MANPADS when you supplied Buks to the rebels... :rolleyes:
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
I personally share such concerns as well, same with some scandals involving the last administration on the issue of Ukraine. I listened to her full congressional testimony yesterday, quite interesting. One interesting question was raised regarding Ukraine's "Biological Research Facilities." I was not aware Ukraine had such facilities, nor do I know how many facilities there are. I wonder how many facilities are there? Were any U.S. funded and how much sensitive material is in those facilities? If any were indeed U.S. funded, or had further involvement either way, one should think the United States would've or should've safeguarded such sensitive material well before the invasion commenced. I'm more concerned about the possibility of any battles taking place near any biological facilities, especially if they're really sensitive. After all, we already witnessed a skirmish at a Nuclear Power Plant.

Here's an excerpt of yesterday's testimony. I noticed she sort of dodged the initial question "Does Ukraine have Chemical or Biological Weapons?" Not saying they do at all.

Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland admits Ukraine has "biological research facilities"

Full Hearing:

Victoria Nuland Testifies on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
There has been concern expressed over the past week about biolabs in Ukraine and whether any of them were US-funded (after Wuhan scandals, no wonder this issue is top of mind). From this, it appears pretty innocuous, just US help with upgrading existing labs to Level 2, etc, (US Embassy website):

Biological Threat Reduction Program

Hmm, it was working fine just a bit ago. Archive:
https://archive.ph/ekLIF

Labs in the Biological Threat Reduction Program are monitored by the American Federation of Scientists, so contrary to internet nuttiness, they are hardly secret Dr. Doom type facilities.

Most countries have biolabs like these. The vast, vast majority are perfectly innocuous and used to monitor public health, emerging human and livestock diseases, etc. If correct, the information provided at the link indicates the labs in Ukraine, at least the ones receiving US funding, are of the regular run-of-the-mill type only. Furthermore, if you look at the pathogens being studied, they are hardly hardly the stuff from which a major pandemic could be launched. Sure, Crimean Congo hemmoraghic fever sounds scary, but it's a tick-borne disease which rarely affects humans other than those working closely with livestock during an outbreak.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the US urgently and diligently sought to identify and neutralze the old Soviet labs in the newly independent republics. It's doubtful they missed any in Ukraine. But if anyone wants a good scare about some of the stuff they found back then, you can watch this (maybe wait until Halloween): Combating weapons of mass destruction without a map, Andrew Weber, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs:

 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
There has been concern expressed over the past week about biolabs in Ukraine and whether any of them were US-funded (after Wuhan scandals, no wonder this issue is top of mind). From this, it appears pretty innocuous, just US help with upgrading existing labs to Level 2, etc, (US Embassy website):

Biological Threat Reduction Program

Hmm, it was working fine just a bit ago. Archive:
https://archive.ph/ekLIF

Labs in the Biological Threat Reduction Program are monitored by the American Federation of Scientists, so contrary to internet nuttiness, they are hardly secret Dr. Doom type facilities.

Most countries have biolabs like these. The vast, vast majority are perfectly innocuous and used to monitor public health, emerging human and livestock diseases, etc. If correct, the information provided at the link indicates the labs in Ukraine, at least the ones receiving US funding, are of the regular run-of-the-mill type only. Furthermore, if you look at the pathogens being studied, they are hardly hardly the stuff from which a major pandemic could be launched. Sure, Crimean Congo hemmoraghic fever sounds scary, but it's a tick-borne disease which rarely affects humans other than those working closely with livestock during an outbreak.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the US urgently and diligently sought to identify and neutralze the old Soviet labs in the newly independent republics. It's doubtful they missed any in Ukraine. But if anyone wants a good scare about some of the stuff they found back then, you can watch this (maybe wait until Halloween): Combating weapons of mass destruction without a map, Andrew Weber, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs:

Yes, it's just Russian lies and disinformation.
There are 59 level 4 biolabs across the world and probably thousands of the lower level labs if you add up the level 1 to 3 labs.
Every country in the world has 'biolabs' of some level.
IIRC the US involvement in the Ukraine lab was to bring it up to proper level 2 standard.
Since Covid19, the 'biolab' label has become loaded and Mr Putin is using that.
I hope he isn't preparing for a false flag event. I think there is some cause for concern because the Western intelligence agencies have started suggesting he might be considering biological or chemical weapons. They were correct about the invasion and I suspect about the coup plan.

Please don't let Mr Putin know we have 4 level 4 labs in Oz and a small but growing group on the ultraright, who could be labelled 'Nazis'.
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
There's one in Minsk. Why hasn't he invaded Belarus? And one outside Stockholm. Swedes beware!
There some absolutely crazy stories circulating on social media about a Ukraine bioweapon delivered by birds that's keyed to Russian DNA. Given there is no difference between Russian and Ukrainian DNA it's got to be the stupidest conspiracies ever. Certainly Russia does appear to be crafting a narrative about Ukrainian bioweapons - Russian Biolab Propaganda on Ukraine Spreads on QAnon Channels (foreignpolicy.com) and it's a concern.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
It is neither of these, in my opinion.

Policy decisions is the function of the elected government of the day. There can be intelligence, strategic recommendations but whether the politicians want to listen is another matter. Which brings us to why decisions like Libya were made.

I see it as a strong "value judgement" when it comes to their foreign policy decision. Gaddaffi, Putin, Assad, Saddam, they fit the typical model of a "bad" guy and instinctively, if the opportunity exist to remove them from power, they will take it. This seems to be more prevalent post-Cold War. Perhaps a sense of hubris that the Western value system has won and the world is better off with it.
I don't disagree at all about the motivations for bombing Libya, nor the "bad guy" model, nor the hubris involved.Normally, there is a constellation of factors and forces at work in a decision to take military action. Motivations and justifications going in are one thing. Plans of action another. The question is, what end game plan was made? If they truly believed a shiny new democracy would make for a stable and peaceful Libya, um there's a word for doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
Yes, it's just Russian lies and disinformation.
There are 59 level 4 biolabs across the world and probably thousands of the lower level labs if you add up the level 1 to 3 labs.
Every country in the world has 'biolabs' of some level.
IIRC the US involvement in the Ukraine lab was to bring it up to proper level 2 standard.
Since Covid19, the 'biolab' label has become loaded and Mr Putin is using that.
I hope he isn't preparing for a false flag event. I think there is some cause for concern because the Western intelligence agencies have started suggesting he might be considering biological or chemical weapons. They were correct about the invasion and I suspect about the coup plan.

Please don't let Mr Putin know we have 4 level 4 labs in Oz and a small but growing group on the ultraright, who could be labelled 'Nazis'.
Actually, there was concern expressed in the US from the very beginning, before any Russian or Chinese propaganda, only it was not so much seen in mainstream media. As you can imagine, ordinary people unhappy with American funding of gain-of-function research in a leaky Chinese lab were perhaps understandably afraid there might be similar projects in Ukraine. I personally think their fears were groundless. Then there were the usual crazy conspiracy nuts on social media making these labs out to be "bioweapon labs" which is laughable.

That said, I can sympathize with those who question sharing our technology so freely, especially when it comes to those which, if proper precautions are not taken can have dire consequences, even if those we share it with have the best and most peaceable of intentions.

EDIT: I posted this before seeing the one above by @Feanor Wow, the bird flu one genetically targeted at Russians is a new one to me, and what a doozy. As I mentioned above, the conspiracy theories have been proliferating on social media since the very beginning. It's not all from QAnon fruitcakes either, or even all from the US. Some has come from a totally whacky site in the UK called "The Daily Expose" which appears to me to be run by grifters trying to cash in on Covid and vaccine paranoia. Some of these people seem to be very creative with the insane claims they come up with.

We used to laugh at the conspiracy theories some of tbe Russian population once embraced that were not put out by any government -- they distrusted their government and media so much, they came up with them on their own and they spread by word-of-mouth. Now, I fear, as there has been growing distrust in our government and media (shown in polls, not just my sense), it appears some people who once laughed at the old internet conspiracy theories* are becoming more susceptible to the newer ones. I am not alarmed or upset, as the numbers are still very, very small, but the trend is somewhat worrisome.

*The goofy ones only believed by a tiny fringe (contrails, lizard people, etc).
 
Last edited:

danonz

Member
Nuland does not really help the situation al though she never has..

Ukraine has "biological research facilities," says Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland, when asked by Sen Rubio if Ukraine has biological or chemical weapons, and says she's worried Russia may get them. But she says she's 100% sure if there's a biological attack, it's Russia.


 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
The PRC is in an interesting position. While it's trying to straddle the fence, It's seems in some areas to be supporting Russia strongly in the conflict with a particular penchant for evil US biolabs. CNN have done some analysis of posts on Chinese social networks -China's promotion of Russian disinformation indicates where its loyalties lie - CNN

I did my own extensive research :) , checking out the SCMP which is pretty factual but lacking in description of the extent of the destruction. The Global Times was full of anti US conspiracy theories and painted the Russians as justified in their Invasion' special military operation'. Here are the 6 most viewed articles from the Global Times
  1. 1US-Funded Bio Labs in Ukraine Conducted Research Into Bat Coronavirus, Russian MoD Says
  2. 2US tries to refute 'rumors' about its bio-labs in Ukraine, but can we believe it?
  3. 3Europe needs to sharpen eyes to see through US' 'tearjerker': Global Times editorial
  4. 4What has US done with bat coronavirus in Ukraine? World deserves explanation
  5. 5War or peace: Uncle Sam's dirty role in the Ukraine crisis
  6. 6GT Voice: Digital dollar coming, urged not to aim at hegemony
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
Is it correct that the bio lab in Wuhan was similarly assisted by the U.S to raise its level to a level 2 ?
Lot's of claims, little facts. US certainly supported research at Wuhan into Coronavirus, one of the key researchers was Ralph Baric, he discusses the research here: Did gain-of-function research create covid-19? We asked Ralph Baric. | MIT Technology Review It has become a popular meme amongst conspiracy theorists and the US right, as far as I can see without any goog evidence
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kiev.

Territorial defense fighters training in Kiev with anti-tank weapons. One has a DP-27.


Ukrainian air defense firing from inside Kiev.


An artillery position in Kiev.


A former high ranking SBU officer was killed in a firefight with police in Kiev. Circumstances are unclear.


Around Kiev.

Apparently Krasnopol' artillery shells are already being used. The video also claims that Ukrainian forces fired MLRS at a Russian column moving between residential buildings.


Russian artillery-men preparing Krasnopol' guided artillery near Kiev.


Near Irpen', Ukraine is using fallen logs to hid anti-tank mines. It looks like the mines get set up to block the openings between debris at night, and put to the side during the day.


Ukrainian alleged territorial defense fighters detained, Kiev region. The clip mostly has him stating he's trying to pick up his mother from the hospital where she's stuck without electricity, food, or water.


Ukrainian air defense in Brovary.


Ukrainian territorial defense fighters with a DP-27 near Kiev, manning a checkpoint.


Battle damage in Brovary, a Coca-Cola factory. Allegedly Ukrainian artillery.


Russian humanitarian aid, from the DNR, in Kiev region, Ivankovo.


A local civilian in Ivankovo was caught observing movements of Russian troop columns and relaying it to Ukrainian security services.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Fighting around Kharkov.


Russian BM-30 firing in Kharkov area.


Strikes landing in Kharkov. They look like they might be MLRS to me.


Territorial defense fighters in Kharkov, during an artillery barrage.


Artillery impacts in Kharkov.


Kh-101 flying over Kharkov.


Battle damage in Kharkov, Northern Saltovka.


The SBU building in Chuguev, Kharkov area, has been destroyed.


Russian humanitarian air being handed out in Kupyansk, Kharkov region. Please note, this is a town where the local authorities notoriously cooperated with Russia.


Allegedly territorial defense fighters tried to steal a Porshe in Kharkov.


Allegedly civilians lining up to leave Sumy.


Looting in Kharkov. They might be territorial defense fighters. They say they're looking for batteries.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Krivoy Rog.

Krivoy Rog airport got hit by missiles.


DNR forces are planned to deploy for security purposes in Melitopol'.


More footage of Russian forces at the Zaporozhskaya NPP. They apparently found a Ukrainian weapon storage facility on site. Presumably it belongs to the security forces that were tasked with protecting the NPP.


Stores reopen around Melitopol'.


Evacuation of civilians from Energodar and Dneprorudnoe. I can't help but wonder why?

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Shot down Ukrainian Su-25 near Novaya Kahovka, circumstances unknown.


Ukrainian forces in Voznesensk, Nikolaev outskirts, presumably getting hit. Note the armed civilian mixed in with the soldiers. Much of Ukraine's territorial defense forces don't seem to wear uniforms.



Russian 11356R apparently firing it's RBU depth charges at... something?


Destroyed Ukrainian Osa transporter-loader.


Russian National Guard in Kherson.


Former Ukrainian border checkpoint, Chongar, Crimea.


A Ukrainian rescue ship, the Sapfir, was allegedly taken by Russia and is being taken to Sevastopol'. I'm wondering about the circumstances of it's capture.


Russian allegedly SpN in Kherson.


Ukrainian Kord police special unit, presumably Nikolaev, that's the last place they were seen before.


Another person getting taped to a pole, allegedly Odessa, presumably a looter.


Russian troops inside Kherson.


Russian military train rolling through Kherson proper.


Weapons found in a school in Kherson, it was presumably being used by either Ukrainian military or territorial defense.


Mariupol'.

Footage from Russian Zala UAVs being used over Mariupol to presumably direct artillery fires.


Battle damage in Mariupol'.


Russian troops on the south-west outskirts of Mariupol', near Manush. It's a strange column that apparently includes an up-gunned MT-LB presumably from the 34th Mountain Bde, and a BTR-82A, as well as a regular MT-LB, and some trucks.


Ukrainian ATGM positions on rooftops in Mariupol'. Armored vehicles hiding near the buildings.


Rebel reinforcements, mobilized personnel, in Sartana, a town near Mariupol'. They're almost on the front line yet still don't have any body armor, and even helmets seem rare.


Footage from near Volnovakha, where fighting continues.


Rebel forces in Svobodnoe village south-east of Volnovakha.


A smashed artillery column allegedly Ukrainian, in Donskoe village right next to Svobodnoe.


Rebel forces near Bugas.


Allegedly a mass burial in Mariupol', unclear if civilian or military.


LDNR Front.

Cheburashka MLRS firing, DNR.


DNR fighter with a captured SMAW-D tube.


Rebel forces in Polovinkino village, LNR.


Mobilized DNR forces, location unknown.


Ukrainian BRDM-2 captured by DNR forces.


Tochka missile abandoned near Kramatorsk.


Heavy battle damage in Izyum. The town looks wrecked. I'm including this town as part of the LDNR front, though these are advancing Russian troops from the Kharkov area that are approaching the northern side of Donetsk. This advance, if successful, will eventually be part of the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk-Gorlovka region.


Russian forces handing out humanitarian aid near Izyum.


Allegedly buses heading to Izyum to evacuate the locals. Given the battle damage, evacuation is a must.


A jet went supersonic over Lugansk. According to the person filming this has happened multiple times.


Russian doctor's have arrived in the Donbass to assist the locals, as volunteers.


Allegedly Ukrainian forces executed civilians in Staromlinovka.


Civilians in Gnutovo are requesting asthma and diabetes medication due to interruptions in supplies.


The West.

Battle damage to the Vinnitsa airfield, satellite image.


Russian airstrikes around Zhitomyr.


Something got hit near Lutsk.


Train station line in L'vov.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Misc.

Abandoned T-64 and BTR-3, location unknown.


Footage of a VDV column in Ukraine, location unknown.


Captured KrAZ and BTR-4, location and circumstances unknown.


Captured BTR-4 in Orel.


Russian Mi-28UB and Ka-52 operating over Ukraine.


Commander of Russia's 11th Para-Assault Bde has received the Hero of Russia commendation. Apparently not posthumously. Circumstances are unclear, but this is a very high and generally pretty scarce award. His deputy, a Lt. Col, received an Order for Bravery, posthumously. Something clearly happened. You don't lose a high-ranking deputy and get a Hero of Russia award for a routine successful operation.


Tanker captain Levkin has received the Hero of Russia award.


Russia has admitted that some conscripts ended up as part of the operation in Ukraine, allegedly by mistake, and are now being pulled back out. Some were taken as POW when a supply convoy got hit. I wonder if it was intentionally decided to use some conscripts as part of supply units, because they would presumably not be involved in the fighting.


Two more confirmed Russian KIA from Sevastopol'.


Ukrainian Verba (Grad mod) firing. Location unknown.


Captured Ukrainian weapons, allegedly belonging to SpN, location and circumstances unknown.


Some footage of Russian repair unit operating in or near Ukraine.


POWs.

Two Ukrainian pilots POW, I can't make up where they were shot down. The second one mentions a Ukrainian unit in Kherson area. It's possible they were shot down there.


Alleged Ukrainian POW from the 81st brigade. He says he was wounded in a friendly fire with a patrol of some sort. He was then allegedly abandoned, crawled into a civilian house, called his commander who told him he would be evacuated. He was then captured by Russian forces.


Ukrainian POWs in rebel hands.


EU/NATO.

Western recon aircraft near Ukraine.


The UK is planning to hand over Starstreak SHORAD to Ukraine.


The US does not support handing over Polish MiG-29s to Ukraine.


Foreign volunteers arrived in Ukraine from the UK including the son of an MP.


Airbus helos arriving in Ukraine, according to an old contract.


Two patriot batteries have set up near Zhezhuv airport, Poland. It's the main location for military aid to Ukraine.

 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Is it correct that the bio lab in Wuhan was similarly assisted by the U.S to raise its level to a level 2 ?
Wuhan had a fairly new level 4 lab (whose state of readiness alarmed inspectors visiting from the US embassy), but much of the GoF work on the bat corona viruses was carried out at level 2, as stated by Shi herself:


Whether SARS-CoV-2 was natural or manmade, this lab is a real scandal.
 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some thoughts.

It appears Russia's advance is stalled. In the north Russian troops are still engaging in localized skirmishes around Kiev. In the north-east the line Chernigov-Sumy-Kharkov-Akhtyrka remains the main problem. All of these population centers have Ukrainian garrisons, and none are ready to surrender. 3 of the 4 appear to be surrounded. With Kharkov, Russia has so far refrained from surrounding it completely, probably to allow civilians to flee west-ward. Russian troops have approached Kiev from the north-east and now the east, but have not made any success in the Kiev suburbs. In the east sources conflict. It's unclear how much of northern Lugansk region is under Russia or rebel control. In the south east, Mariupol' is firmly blocked off, and the ring around it is closing. While attempts have been made to allow people out, fighting continues and it's likely the city will face a slow assault. In Zaporozhye area, Russian troops are advancing north-eastward trying to link up with forces in Kharkov area pushing through Izyum. This is clearly an attempt to encircle Ukrainian troops around Donetsk-Gorlovka area. In the south, Kherson region is firmly under Russian control, Russian troops have pushed to the east, north-east, and north of Nikolayev. The city is not encircled yet, but it's likely this is intended. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian troops pushing north-east out of Nikolaev area towards Krivoy Rog, another major population center.

With this in mind, it's unclear whether Russia has a plan for civilian administration of the occupied areas. It's unclear if they have a military plan either. In some cases we're seeing some sort of local forces being used, but we also have information of DNR forces being prepared for a deployment to Melitopol'. While DNR forces are at least local-ish, they are certainly not from Zaporozhye. It raises questions. It might be that Russia was just unprepared to administer the areas, it might be that Russia was expecting to have more local support that so far appears to be lacking. A lot depends on how things go in occupied areas but recent footage of battle damage from some urban areas suggests that Russia is willing to being damaging assaults on population centers to achieve results. So far this appears to be localized, but the longer this goes on and the stiffer Ukrainian resistance becomes, the likelier it is that Russia will do this. The arrival of buckets of military aid and of some foreign volunteers opens the question on the continuation of the war for Ukraine. Encircled garrisons in Chernigov, Sumy, Akhtyrka, all continue to fight. They will run out of munitions eventually, but how long is eventually? Kharkov isn't even fully surrounded yet. Who knows what kind of resources have been thrown into it.

All in all things don't look good for Russia, but they also don't look good for Ukrainians living in affected areas. Fighting is likely to get heavier soon, possibly much heavier with serious destruction wreaked upon major urban centers.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
All in all things don't look good for Russia, but they also don't look good for Ukrainians living in affected areas. Fighting is likely to get heavy soon, possibly much heavier with serious destruction wreaked upon major urban centers.
It seems it is going to be grinding war of attrition. Just like Russian did with Grozny. I suspect Russia then will try to get some local group supporters, which in the end will administrate the area. They're doing it in Chechya and in Georgia. Seems they're going to do it again in Ukraine.

This is just my personal opinion, when I saw Russian send old Soviet era equipment to the front, I don't see it like Western media talk of Russian already lost many equipment, thus resolt to using old ones.

There's more probable that they are preparing their kind War of Attrition, where they are keeping their main assets, and send those older Soviet era equipment to try exhausted Ukraine resources. It's a very costly strategy, but that's can be where Russia going to conduct their war of attrition work.
 
Last edited:

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Russia has now attacked 3 new cities: Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipro.

Dnipro is in the east, however Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk are both very far west. To my knowledge this is the first time Russia is attacking towns in the far west of Ukraine.

Macron said after a phone call with Putin some days ago that Putin had expressed that his target was "the whole" of Ukraine.

However, seeing how Russia is struggling in the East, I wonder if they have the capacity to also attack Wester Ukraine? Perhaps these attacks are just to distract and confuse? Or are they really aiming to occupy the whole of Ukraine?

There's more probable that they are preparing their kind War of Attrition, where they are keeping their main assets, and send those older Soviet era equipment to try exhausted Ukraine resources. It's a very costly strategy, but that's can be where Russia going to conduct their war of attrition work.
More and more Civilian targets are being hit. The war of Attrition that Russia has now launched is going to cost, but the highest costs is not in dollars or rubles, it is in human suffering.

And we still have not seen a justification for this terrible war of attrition. The latest attempt at justification seems to be the lie that Ukraine is developing biological weapons. Last week it was Nuclear weapons. What will it be next week?
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
They're making more progress in the East seems so far. Whether they want to control part of Ukraine or whole Ukraine, I still think they are aiming part of East and South and not the whole Ukraine.

Nobody knows the end game except Putin and
his inner circle (even I doubt his inner circle can really understand his definite end game). However I do suspect Kyiv and Kharkov and other target in the theater are more aim to push Zelensky in the bargaining table.

Putin clearly put that he wants to safe guard Russian separatist in Donetsk and Luhansk, and safe guard Crimea. My opinion by looking on that, he at least wants to secure four oblast Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson. The last two Oblast is to secure Dnyper water access to Crimea, plus by that he can control all sea of azov. In the end seems Crimea security is the main goal.

Don't see they are prepared for occupation of whole Ukraine. As long as he secure Crimea security including the water access plus Russian separatist in Donetsk and Luhansk, and Ukraine guarantee to stay neutral, he can claim "mission accomplished".

Again this's just my opinion based on how their are moving and how Putin always put security of Russian in Crimea and Luhansk and Donetsk as unconditional goals.
 
Top