The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

Update.

Another map, please take with a grain of salt.

Readovka

Актуальная карта военных действий на вечер 07.03.2022 Видимо, из-за «режима тишины» ситуация на фронтах, за редким исключением, была достаточно спокойная. Впервые за долгое время в Буче, Ирпене и Гостомеле было почти не слышно выстрелов. Пригороды с запада...

t.me

Kiev.

MLRS firing from inside Kiev. Presumably Ukrainian.

Война История Оружие @ISTORIJAORUZIJA

Политика, История и Оружие.

t.me

Two men tied to a pole and being beaten by armed men in uniform. Presumably these are looters.

Open Ukraine| Открытая Украина

Киев, мужики, голые жопы, БДСМ️‍ @OpenUkraine

t.me

Around Kiev.

Russian cruise missiles over Vasil'kovo, heading towards Kiev.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Русские Калибры летят на Киев! Над Васильковом пролетели 6 крылатых ракет. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian troops allegedly somewhere near Kiev.

Kotsnews

Немного фото с Киевского фронта. @sashakots

t.me

The North.

A Ukrainian government official in Chernigov apparently published photos of a downed Ukrainain Furia UAV (the lack of damage suggests malfunction rather then a shoot-down) claiming it's a Russian UAV that was shot down.

Рыбарь

Глава Черниговской областной администрации триумфально объявил о сбитом «вражеском» беспилотнике. Правда, это украинская «Фурия», которая стоит на вооружении ВСУ. #Украина #фейк #Чернигов @rybar совместно с @wingsofwar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

2-3 Ukrainian T-64BVs were allegedly captured near Chernigov. The claim is more were captured, but evidence is absent.

Военный Осведомитель

Захваченные российской армией под Черниговым Т-64БВ ВСУ.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России захватила большое количество новых танков ВСУ под Черниговом Танки буквально недавно были сняты с хранения и оставлены в полном снаряжении. В машинах осколочно-фугасные снаряды. На сегодняшних кадрах с места от нашего добровольца 3 из группы танков, позже ждём новые фото...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Russians supply column enters Chernigov area.

WarDonbass

Колонна снабжения ВС РФ заходит в Черниговскую область.

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian National Guard in combat near Kharkov. This really isn't what those units were meant for. The good version is that Russian command recognized the value of National Guard units with experience from dealing with armed criminals and is using them especially near urban areas. The bad version is that they don't have enough line infantry units and resorting to National Guard units being used for assault operations, instead of securing the area behind advancing ground forces.

Telegram: Contact @neknotes

t.me

A jet shot down over Kharkov, presumably a Russian Su-34 based on recent happenings.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Su-34 fragments in Kharkov. From what I can tell at least two Su-34s have been shot down there recently.

Colonelcassad

Обломки сбитого вчера над Харьковом Су-34. Пилот попал в плен. Сбит был на отходе, когда уже поразил свои цели. По одним данным - телевышку в Харькове (отключилось укро-ТВ), по другим - цеха Завода имени Малышева, где собирают и ремонтируют танки и БМП (сильные повреждения цехов). Машина была...

t.me

Exchanges of artillery fire in Kharkov.

ANNA NEWS

Видео артиллерийской канонады в ночном Харькове. @anna_news

t.me

Battle damage in Kharkov.

Рыбарь

Дым от попадания боеприпаса в квартале Алексеевка на севере Харькова. #Россия #Украина #Харьков @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

ZERGULIO

Харьков, Победа. Утро 7 марта

t.me

Battle damage at the Malyshev tank factory in Kharkov.

Военкор Котенок

Территория танкового завода им. Малышева в Харькове после удара ВКС РФ.

t.me

Strikes in Akhtyrka.

Telegram: Contact @zheltyeslivy

t.me

Battle damage in Sumy.

Telegram: Contact @zheltyeslivy

t.me

At the Russian Nehoteevka border checkpoint a long line of blue buses was spotted, presumably meant to evacuate civilians from Kharkov.

Старше Эдды

На погранпереходе Нехотеевка стоят синие автобусы, колонна очень большая. Ждут беженцев, которые должны пройти по этому гуманитарному коридору. Посмотрим, выпустят ли их из Харькова. @vysokygovorit

t.me

Looters are going through empty homes in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Пока вокруг стрельба, мародеры в Харькове обносят опустевшие квартиры местных жителей.

t.me

Apparently at least one prisoner was released in Kharkov and given a weapon to presumably defend the city.

BelVestnik

⚡Вот и случилось то, что Зелебоба собирался сделать. А собирался он выпустить уголовников. Так вот, помимо того, что выпустил уголовников, так ещё и раздал им оружие.

t.me

Kharkov train station.

Рыбарь

Обстановка на железнодорожном вокзале Харькова, откуда проходит эвакуация в западные районы Украины. #Украина #Харьков @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A Russian military train near Melitopol'. The two locals who came out to see it don't seem thrilled.

Colonelcassad

А вот и российский бронепоезд под Мелитополем. У свидомых истерика.

t.me

Russian National Guard in Melitopol'.

ДОЛГАРЕVА

Росгвардейцы в Мелитополе. Охраняют порядок.

t.me

An Su-25 over Krivoy Rog, unclear whose.

Dambiev

Украинский Су-25 над Кривым Рогом. Полчаса назад.

t.me

Dnepropetrovsk train station.

БелВПО

Мэр Днепропетровска заявил, что ситуация в городе спокойная, оборона надежная, гуманитарная ситуация стабильная. А вот если выйти из своего бункера и посмотреть на привокзальный район, то все выглядит малость по другому.

t.me

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Air defenses firing over Odessa.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

❗️Ракеты ПВО взлетают в небо в Одессе t.me/Rvvoenkor

t.me

Allegedly, two Ukrainian Su-25s were shot down over Kherson area, near that large army base that Russia captured and recently showed off.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Apparently Ukrainian helos managed a low-altitude strike against Russian troops on the Novokahovskaya hydro-electric dam.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian artillery firing towards Nikolaev.

Рыбарь

Работа реактивных систем залпового огня по позициям ВСУ в восточных окрестностях Николаева. Некоторые районы остались без воды и электричества. #Николаев #Россия #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Military storage facility at Nikolaev got hit by a strike.

GREY ZONE

Взрывы складов ВСУ под Николаевым

t.me

Battle damage in/around Nikolaev.

Юрий Ткачёв

Николаев, последствия обстрела. Может кто район знает? UPD. Пишут, Кульбакино

t.me

Юрий Ткачёв

Ещё Николаев, вид в сторону Херсона

t.me

ZERGULIO

Утро у человека в Николаеве началось не с кофе.

t.me

Рыбарь

Пожары на окраинах Николаева. В городе также пропала связь от оператора Lifecell: скорее всего, один из ударов пришёлся по сотовой вышке. #Николаев #Россия #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

ZERGULIO

Вот так выйдешь утром к машине. Николаев.

t.me

Повёрнутые на Z войне

Николаев бои, взрывы. Местные, сваливайте пока есть такая возможность!

t.me

Chernobaevka airfield near Kherson is getting hit by presumably Ukrainian artillery (the location is under Russian control).

Colonelcassad

ВСУ обстреливает аэродром Чернобаевка в районе Херсона.

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge near Nikolaevskoe village, Nikolaev region.

Рыбарь

ВСУ подорвали мост у деревни Николаевское рядом с аэродромом Кульбакино с целью замедлить продвижение российских войск к Николаеву. #Николаев #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

A video of allegedly pro-Russian underground resistance in Odessa.

⚔️ СВАРЩИКИ

Подполье Одессы выступает против украинских нацистов.

t.me

Mariupol'.

Smoke rising, presumably from battle damage, on the outskirts of Mariupol'.

ANNA NEWS

Республиканские силы НМ ДНР сражаются с украинской армией за пригороды Мариуполя, 6 марта 2022 года. @anna_news

t.me

Rebel forces near Mariupol'.

ANNA NEWS

Республиканские силы НМ ДНР в окрестностях Мариуполя Колонна бронетехники республиканских сил НМ ДНР двигается в окрестностях Мариуполя. @anna_news

t.me

Сладков+

Неофициальные мысли о войне. Частный канал Александра Сладкова. Менеджер по рекламе: @ReklamaSladkovaA Будьте внимательны. Могут быть мошенники. Канал сотрудничает с https://t.me/Tgpodbor_official Официальные ссылки: https://vk.com/sladkovplus

t.me

Сладков+

Неофициальные мысли о войне. Частный канал Александра Сладкова. Менеджер по рекламе: @ReklamaSladkovaA Будьте внимательны. Могут быть мошенники. Канал сотрудничает с https://t.me/Tgpodbor_official Официальные ссылки: https://vk.com/sladkovplus

t.me

Munitions captured in/near Mariupol'.

Война История Оружие @ISTORIJAORUZIJA

Политика, История и Оружие.

t.me

Some civilians managed to exit Mariupol'.

Сладков+

Неофициальные мысли о войне. Частный канал Александра Сладкова. Менеджер по рекламе: @ReklamaSladkovaA Будьте внимательны. Могут быть мошенники. Канал сотрудничает с https://t.me/Tgpodbor_official Официальные ссылки: https://vk.com/sladkovplus

t.me

Old Ukrainian positions near Shirokino, east of Mariupol'.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Sparta btln captured a BTR-4 intact, presumably near Volnovakha.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian troops have captured equipment in Berdyansk from the 66th independent artillery btln, including a BTR-60PB artillery command variant, at least 5 trucks, an MT-LB SNAR-10 artillery recon vehicle, and 9 2A36 Giatsint-B towed cannons.

Colonelcassad

Трофеи ВС РФ в Бердянске. В видео ошибка. На кадрах 152-мм орудия "Гиацинт"

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LDNR Front.

Destroyed BMP-1 and MT-LB, allegedly Ukrainian.

Военный Осведомитель

Уничтоженные в Луганской области украинские МТ-ЛБ и БМП-1. На сгоревшей броне просматривается пиксельный камуфляж. Причём снимают её сами украинцы. Возможно данная техника была уничтожена своими.

t.me

Ukrainian BMP-1, BRM-1K, and Varta armored car, captured allegedly near Severo-Donetsk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A fuel storage in Lugansk blew up after a Ukrainian strike.

ЛуганскИнформЦентр Z

⚡️⚡️⚡️СРОЧНО⚡️⚡️⚡️ В Луганске несколько минут назад прогремел мощный взрыв. Очевидцы предполагают, что взорвалась нефтебаза.

t.me

ZERGULIO

Появились кадры тушения нефтебазы в Луганске. Она загорелась сегодня утром после обстрела украинскими войсками. Информация о пострадавших уточняется. @rt_russian

t.me

ЛуганскИнформЦентр Z

⚡️⚡️⚡️Взрыв нефтебазы в Луганске.

t.me

Rebel forces in Kryakovka, Lugansk area.

ANNA NEWS

⚡️Республиканские силы НМ ЛНР в Кряковке Республиканские силы НМ ЛНР показали брошенные позиции украинской армии в населенном пункте Кряковка. @anna_news

t.me

There's unconfirmed info of a Russian breakthrough at Izyum. If true, this threatens the entire Donetsk-Gorlovka Ukrainian force with encirclement.

WarDonbass

Освободительная армия Z осуществила прорыв под Изюмом https://t.me/rybar/27761?single

t.me

Battle damage at a police station in Izyum.

Dambiev

Уничтоженный в результате ракетного удара городской отдел украинской полиции в городе Изюм. 7 марта 2022 года. В здании полиции располагался штаб территориальной обороны.

t.me

Interview with a local in a suburb of Severodonetsk stating that Ukrainian troops were kicking people out of their homes to set up fortified positions.

ДолгZ

Местные люди о том, как в их домах засели украинские вояки. Многих выгнали из квартир, некоторые сами убежали, но часть людей осталось. Один из них с нами и говорит. Это посёлок под Северодонецком, он ещё сутки назад был под контролем Украины. Местным это, как они говорят, не нравилось. Теперь...

t.me

Russian TV and radio is to start broadcasting in digital format around areas of the LNR recently recaptured by rebel forces.

Луганьмедиа

Минкомсвязи ЛНР сообщает, что в результате проведенных работ с 7 марта на территории Старобельского района ЛНР начато вещание 30 российских телеканалов в цифровом формате, а также 3 российских FM радиостанций.

t.me

The West.

Battle damage in Zhitomyr.

ZERGULIO

Житомир.

t.me

Fuel storage facility in Zhitomyr got hit.

МИГ России

❗️⚡️Только что по нефтебазе ВОГ в Житомире нанесен мощнейший удар

t.me

Военкор Котенок

Пожар на нефтебазе в Житомирской области @voenkorKotenok

t.me

A giant traffic jam on the road to Uman', presumably caused by people fleeing the fighting.

Dambiev

Многокилометровая пробка на автодороге на Умань.

t.me

Misc.

An alleged Ukrainian soldier from the 58th Motorized Infantry Bde has some choice words for Zelenskiy over apparently being told to hold off Russian tanks with no anti-tank weapons.

ZАПИСКИ VЕТЕРАНА

"Володимир Залупэньский, иди нахуй!" Флешмоб от отчаявшихся солдат укрорейха.

t.me

A destroyed BTR, Ukrainian sources say it's Russian, but it's unclear. Location unknown.

Военный Осведомитель

Украинцы продолжают снимать свою уничтоженную технику, называя её российской. На этот раз в кадр попал БТР-70М. На носу опять виден пиксельный камуфляж и есть характерная для украинского БТР верхняя створка.

t.me

Russian Su-35S operating over Ukraine. Location unknown.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

ImpNavigator

На видео от Минобороны России, наши Су-35С участвующие в военной операции на Украине. На кадрах можно заметить управляемые ракеты "воздух-воздух" Р-77-1, Р-73/Р-74, а также один из вариантов управляемых ракет "воздух-поверхность" Х-31

t.me

A Ukrainian Leleka UAV captured intact. Location unknown.

WarJournal [Z]

Трофейный украинский разведывательный БЛА «Лелека-100». @warjournaltg

t.me

Russia has captured a tank storage facility in Ukraine, location unknown.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России захватила одну из танковых баз в центральной Украине Техника недавно была снята с хранения для участия в боевых действиях и полностью снаряжена. Танки отбуксированы на российскую военную базу. Теперь украинское оружие повернется против самих же ВСУ. t.me/Rvvoenkor

t.me

EU/NATO.

Alleged US PMC is hiring for work in Ukraine.

Милитарист

Американский ЧОП ищет людей для работы на Украине за 1000-2000 долл. в сутки (!) плюс бонус. По официальной версии - для работы телохранителем и эвакуатором

t.me

Allegedly foreign volunteers arrived in Ukraine.

Денацификация UA

❗️Первые наемники интернационального легиона уже на позициях ВСУ Ну ничего - земля украинская щедро примет и иностранную нечисть, урожай лучше будет!

t.me

Милитарист

Количество натовских отставников и действующих военных на Украине постоянно растет: например, туда приехал 61-летний дед из Эдинбурга

t.me

Western military aid arrives in Poland, for Ukraine.

ВЫ СЛУШАЛИ МАЯК

17 самолётов с оружием для Украины в день приземляются на польских аэродромах

t.me

A Spanish C-90 rocket launcher in Ukraine.

Милитарист

У украинских военных замечен испанский противотанковый гранатомет Instalaza C90-CR, видимо поставленный на днях

t.me

POWs.

A Ukrainian POW from the 53rd Mech Bde.

Telegram: Contact @youzhno

t.me

 

[Rob c]

Ukraine is the one putting him on trial. Just to be clear. Given the timing this is obviously a propaganda move.



He was no doubt killed by the Ghost of Kiev. I'm going to hold off on some sort of evidence for this one.

Yes nothing can be taken at face value in a war. I repeat the phrase I said earlier and that is the the "THE FIRST CASUALTY OF WAR IS THE TRUTH. In the modern digital world Photo's can be altered to the satisfaction of the publisher, Film can be similarly altered or ACTED, text is just child's play. As a general rule dictatorships will alter the truth far more than open democracies due to the free press which tends to find out more. However even in democracies the pollies will try to suppress information for as long as possible and in either case the military have to maintain secrecy for operational reasons. Propaganda, false or exaggerated stories are simply part of war and are used by all as a legitimate weapon of war.

 

[Rob c]

Another point that has been raised but not really answered is how long can the relatively small Russian economy carry on this war. Their GDP is only 10% to 15% bigger than Australia, with the added burden of about 10 times the population. The demise of the USSR was often put down to the collapse of their economy caused by them trying to keep up to the USA militarily. Could the same thing happen again to the Russian Federation? i would say that Ukraine will receive far more financial support to keep them going, even though their economy is also very small.

 

[STURM]

Another point that has been raised but not really answered is how long can the relatively small Russian economy carry on this war.

It has reserves to the tune of some USD600 billion of which about 100 billions's worth is kept in gold in Russia. For the time being the country can sustain the war effort.

 

[JGCAC]

It has reserves to the tune of some USD600 billion of which about 100 billions's worth is kept in gold in Russia. For the time being the country can sustain the war effort.

It's been reported they've lost access to about half of it because of the sanctions so perhaps they've got less time than it appears.

 

[Twain]

It has reserves to the tune of some USD600 billion of which about 100 billions's worth is kept in gold in Russia. For the time being the country can sustain the war effort.

Their available reserves are about half that. Sanctions froze about $300 billion.

"Except it turns out that Russia’s foreign reserves strategy had a major flaw: About half of the money was held overseas in foreign banks—and now Russia can’t get to it. "

And you need to subtract whatever they have spent trying to prop up the ruble.


"The ruble lost half its value against the U.S. dollar after Russia annexed Crimea, forcing Russia's central bank to spend $130 billion to stabilize the currency."

The fatal flaw in Russia's plan to sanction-proof its economy

Russia hoped to use $630B in reserves to blunt the effect of sanctions. The only problem? Half the money was overseas.

fortune.com

I would expect that in the last few days Russia has spent at least $50 billion trying to stabilize the ruble and possibly much more. Their available reserves are probably more in the range of $250 billion and falling.

 

[Twain]

You just described the scenario. The tank was captured and appeared recoverable. I'd have to scroll back though, but I believe it was abandoned rather then damaged.



I want to be clear, I've gone through a lot of his results, and he is far better then 50% correct. The overwhelming majority of his losses, at least in my opinion, are beyond reasonable doubt. He has done a stellar job. There are individual cases where attribution is not obvious, and an even smaller handful in my opinion that are suspect. My commentary about his drop in reliability is in no way intended to imply that the overall picture of Russian losses is incorrect.



The truth is that replacing BMP-2s and BTR-80/82s is very cheap. BMP-2s are still sitting in storage, as well as BMP-1 hulls that can be re-turreted (BMP-1AM). BMP-3s and BMDs are harder to replace but some para-assault units historically have used BTRs and BMPs instead of BMDs. Russia also has plenty of T-72s and T-80s in storage. Upgrading them to B3 mod'16 or BVM standard is relatively expensive, but only relative to the cost of BMP-2s refurbished. They are still drastically cheaper then any new MBT. So replenishing ground forces losses is in principle doable. However... the operation comes with a direct financial cost, and Russia is burning through an expensive missile arsenal. There's also the fact that for the next X amount of years efforts will have to focus on replenishing losses instead of re-arming, and it's likely they will go with the more affordable route. So this may have negative impact on the induction of new vehicle types, and will likely see older BTR-80 variants and BMP-2s pulled out of storage and quickly refurbished. BMP-1AMs may become more common.

There's also the issue of production bottlenecks both due to sanctions and due to the state of the factories (BMD production for example is bottlenecked at two btln sets per year). All in all this is going to be costly and have an overall negative impact on the state of the ground forces in terms of equipment. It's unclear whether the failures experienced here will be properly understood and lead to improvements in structure and planning.

I don't disagree that taking equipment out of storage and refurbishing it will be much cheaper but most predictions that I have read are predicting an economy that is going to be post soviet 1990's bad. Available currency reserves are going to plummet. As linked in my earlier post, Russia lost access to half their currency reserves because of sanctions, subtract another $50 billion spent trying to stabilize the ruble, a billion dollars a day spent on the war. All this is happening while the moscow stock exchange has been closed. it's going to be ugly when it does open, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Russian companies stock fall by 80-90% with an average decline in the range of 50-60%. It also wouldn't surprise me at all to see several Russian banks fail unless there is significant russian government action to bail them out.

 

[JGCAC]

a billion dollars a day spent on the war

Curious, is there a source for this?

 

[hauritz]

Another point that has been raised but not really answered is how long can the relatively small Russian economy carry on this war. Their GDP is only 10% to 15% bigger than Australia, with the added burden of about 10 times the population. The demise of the USSR was often put down to the collapse of their economy caused by them trying to keep up to the USA militarily. Could the same thing happen again to the Russian Federation? i would say that Ukraine will receive far more financial support to keep them going, even though their economy is also very small.

I always suspected that a lot of Russia's military strength is just for show. All the boring stuff like sustainment, training and ammunition has been cut to save money. That explains their inability to sustain air cover and the generally poor performance of their ground forces.

 

[STURM]

I always suspected that a lot of Russia's military strength is just for show.

No it's not for show... When there was the political will and a clear assessment and understaning of what was needed in Syria and the Donbass, they didn't do things in half measures. As mentioned in the link I previously posted, for various reasons units did not enter into combat the way their training and doctrine specified, a political decision was made to hold back a lot of what they have rather fully utilise them and it was it was not expected that the Ukrainians would put up such fierce and determined resistance.

Various factors explain their performance and must be in viewed in totality rather than in isolation to gain a realistic picture. It's also too early days to reach any firm conclusions.

 

[Twain]

Curious, is there a source for this?

I don't have the link anymore but I THINK it was an article linked by rob lee on twitter. The article quoted several cost estimates ranging anywhere from $500 million a day to $20 billion a day. It's obviously not $20 billion, it's probably not $500 million a day either. I saying it's a billion a day based one of the most conservative estimates.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Perhaps I don't quite know what you mean by this. Why would any military be needed for evacuation? UNHCR, UNDP, UNFPA, WHO, ICRC, etc. have had offices in Ukraine for years.

Because militaries have more resources. Who rescued civilians from Afghanistan? Air forces of countries that had civilians there.
And if anyone ever has to rely on the UN, one of the world's most corrupt bodies, he's already in a crisis of his own doing.

 

[GermanHerman]

I always suspected that a lot of Russia's military strength is just for show. All the boring stuff like sustainment, training and ammunition has been cut to save money. That explains their inability to sustain air cover and the generally poor performance of their ground forces.

This Statement realy falls in line with the sentiment I perceive in german media and among the Twitter crowd.

And although russia certainly did make mistakes, the greatest mistake would be to underestimate russia.

When the soviets struggled during the winter war the sentiment among german officers was the same and sometimes I think the only thing standing in the way of world war 3 are the russian nuclear capabilities.

One thing to keep in mind though is that the current war has some very special circumstances. Russia clearly aimed and still somewhat aims to keep the civilian casulties low. To put their effort in perspective, during their 2003 campaign coalition forces killed approx. 5 to 7500 civilians. In Ukraine so far 406 civilians died according OHCHR.

To give some further perspective if you go with the lower estimates for iraqi freedome and break both numbers down to civilians killed per day we end up at somewhere around 125 during iraq vs 34 in Ukraine.

Yes, those numbers are also certainly not complete or accurate but a factor of around 4 times less victims is actualy quite noteworthy when we keep in mind that the US used a lot of guided weapons and huge parts of the iraqi army surrendered without a fight.

This also puts the media hysteria about russia targeting civilians into perspective.

 

[Vivendi]

This Statement realy falls in line with the sentiment I perceive in german media and among the Twitter crowd.

And although russia certainly did make mistakes, the greatest mistake would be to underestimate russia.

When the soviets struggled during the winter war the sentiment among german officers was the same and sometimes I think the only thing standing in the way of world war 3 are the russian nuclear capabilities.

One thing to keep in mind though is that the current war has some very special circumstances. Russia clearly aimed and still somewhat aims to keep the civilian casulties low. To put their effort in perspective, during their 2003 campaign coalition forces killed approx. 5 to 7500 civilians. In Ukraine so far 406 civilians died according OHCHR.

To give some further perspective if you go with the lower estimates for iraqi freedome and break both numbers down to civilians killed per day we end up at somewhere around 125 during iraq vs 34 in Ukraine.

Yes, those numbers are also certainly not complete or accurate but a factor of around 4 times less victims is actualy quite noteworthy when we keep in mind that the US used a lot of guided weapons and huge parts of the iraqi army surrendered without a fight.

This also puts the media hysteria about russia targeting civilians into perspective.

Russia should not be underestimated however Russia is not defending itself, this is a war of aggression against their "brothers" in Ukraine. This has an impact on morale. Some Russians support the war however many are also against it.

Regarding the number of dead civilians -- we simply don't know at this stage, they may well be off by a factor 4, or much more.

It is true that early in the campaign Russia did not targe civilians, however, now there are signs that the gloves are coming off. ICC have already launched a war crime investigation.

Unlike Syrian rebels, Ukraine has a well trained and organized army, highly motivated, receiving a significant amount of ammunition and weapons from a large number of countries, and are using those weapons to fight back, and limit the possibilities of Russia to attack and kill civilians.

In my opinion the West should make a much bigger effort at informing people in Russia what's going on in Ukraine. If more Russians knew the truth -- that the Ukrainian government is not a bunch of Nazis (their president is Jewish), that they have not committed genocide, that they are definitely not building nuclear weapons, and that Russia launched a massive unprovoked attack, then I think the resistance against the invasion would increase even further.

The best and quickest way to end this war is probably to get rid of Putin and his "inner circle". The damage he is causing to both Ukraine and Russia is massive already, and it is going to get much worse. Hopefully more Russians will realize how damaging this war is to themselves, and that Russia is not gaining anything from this war.

 

[STURM]

In my opinion the West should make a much bigger effort at informing people in Russia what's going on in Ukraine. If more Russians knew the truth --

Notwithstanding the controlled press; most Russians [especially those in urban areas] I feel have a pretty good idea as to what's happening. We know that a large part may have supported the move to take the Crimea and the Donbass but not necessarily invade the Ukraine. We also have to avoid the temptation of assuming that just because many Russians might be against the invasion; that they are actually anti-Putin per see. A large part of the population may not support him but the idea or notion that Russia is standing up for itself against Western attempts to isolate and weaken Russia still resonates.

Unlike Syrian rebels, Ukraine has a well trained and organized army

The Ukraine is also large country; unlike in Syria; Russia has no ''friends'' or ''allies' outside of the Donbass and it's bad enough that insufficient assets were deployed and not according to established training and doctrine but the Russians are attacking simultaneously on multiple axes...

The best and quickest way to end this war is probably to get rid of Putin and his "inner circle".

There is no ''best'' option; only further uncertainty and risks; not least for the Russian people themselves.

What comes after Putin? It would ne nice if we lived in a perfect world and that a post Putin Russia was democratic and ingratiated itself with the West. Alas we don't live in a perfect world and a post Putin Russia might bring in a era of great instability with far reaching consequences. There is also no guarantee that a post Putin Russia might be less assertive for standing up for its interests and might be accommodating to the West.

 

[Vivendi]

No it's not for show... When there was the political will and a clear assessment and understaning of what was needed in Syria and the Donbass, they didn't do things in half measures. As mentioned in the link I previously posted, for various reasons units did not enter into combat the way their training and doctrine specified, a political decision was made to hold back a lot of what they have rather fully utilise them and it was it was not expected that the Ukrainians would put up such fierce and determined resistance.

Various factors explain their performance and must be in viewed in totality rather than in isolation to gain a realistic picture. It's also too early days to reach any firm conclusions.

The Ukrainian army is much smaller than the Russian however it has the significant advantage of defending not attacking, and furthermore it is being being supplied by more weapons and ammunition, and also food and medical supplies from the West -- in addition, soldiers from other countries are now coming to Ukraine in large numbers, increasing their army.

The Pentagon said yesterday they estimate 95% of the 170,000 troops Russia had amassed around Ukraine are now in Ukraine. Pentagon estimates roughly 95% of Russian troops at border now in Ukraine | Washington Examiner
Russia has a much larger military capacity than Ukraine, but it's clear they are struggling. They have organizational issues, supply issues, and also several indications they have morale issues.

Also -- what is the Russian end game? Are they going to occupy large parts of Ukraine? They will have to fight insurgents for years to come. Are they going to try to insert a Pro-Russian leader? Ukrainians will not accept that and revolt.

I am sorry but there is no way Russia can win this war, it's too late for that already. For sure they can (and will) win battles, but they cannot win the war.

 

[STURM]

The Ukrainian army is much smaller than the Russian

It is defending on it's own territory; was expecting to fight and has shorter lines of communications. Most Russian units weren't even told they were going into combat until 48 hours prior and most units entered combat not in the way they were trained or organised to.

in addition, soldiers from other countries are now coming to Ukraine in large numbers, increasing their army.

Which has it's pros and cons. As I mentioned before I hope the Ukrainians properly vet these people; who can range from ex military types, to those looking for an adventure, to those motivated by questionable politics. they can be a burden or they can be an assets.

They have organizational issues, supply issues, and also several indications they have morale issues.

All that is well known. Militaries however tend to adapt and the Russians [never mind the WW2 experience] clearly showed in Chechnya, Syria and the Donbass that they can adapt when they have to. they have organisational and supply issues because of political decisions made which resulted in units going into combat not according to how they are trained or organised..... It would be a mistake to assume that whatever limitations are being faced now will not be gradually rectified.

I am sorry but there is no way Russia can win this war, it's too late for that already. For sure they can (and will) win battles, but they cannot win the war.

Depends what your personal definition is of ''win''.... The Russians might gain their military objectives but not their political ones. Over time their objectives might change; driven by conditions on the battlefield and poiltics.

 

[Vivendi]

A large part of the population may not support him but the idea or notion that Russia is standing up for itself against Western attempts to isolate and weaken Russia still resonates.

Do they understand that the West did not attempt to "isolate and weaken Russia" until Russia actually broke international agreements and launched unprovoked attacks? Do they know that Russia has for many years interfered and tried to weaken many Western democracies, spreading disinformation, including operating "troll factories"? Do they know that people wanted in conjunction with the poisoning of the Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 cannot be questioned, since they are in Russia and Russia refuse to allow them be questioned? Do they know that the UN accuse Russia for war crimes in Syria, and that they are now being investigated for war crimes in Ukraine?

The West has shown too much restraint in dealing with Russia, that's why we find ourselves in the current mess. And they have also not been good at getting their messages across to people living in Russia.

 

[Vivendi]

Depends what your personal definition is of ''win''.... The Russians might gain their military objectives but not their political ones. Over time their objectives might change; driven by conditions on the battlefield and poiltics.

What are their military objectives?

In any case, military objectives in isolation is meaningless. Military objectives makes sense just in the context of political objectives.

 

[STURM]

Do they understand that the West did not attempt to "isolate and weaken Russia" until Russia actually broke international agreements and launched unprovoked attacks? Do they know that Russia has for many years interfered and tried to weaken many Western democracies, spreading disinformation, including operating "troll factories"? Do they know that people wanted in conjunction with the poisoning of the Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 cannot be questioned, since they are in Russia and Russia refuse to allow them be questioned? Do they know that the UN accuse Russia for war crimes in Syria, and that they are now being investigated for war crimes in Ukraine?

The West has shown too much restraint in dealing with Russia, that's why we find ourselves in the current mess. And they have also not been good at getting their messages across to people living in Russia.

Well I don't know if they ''know'' but you apparently you do [or are convinced you do] and whether what you ''know'' is in line with what they ''know'', what they agree with or how they perceive things is the question..... Also; how certain things are perceived in the West can differ profoundly with how they are perceived by ordinary Russians who BTW might not necessarily be pro Putin. I would be nice or convenient if they perceived things in line with the Western narrative but unfortunately that's not the case; too many factors and nuances at play.

In any case, military objectives in isolation is meaningless. Military objectives makes sense just in the context of political objectives.

Achieving military objectives may make it easier to achieve some political objectives ...


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