The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I really don't see how you can have any idea of who is was firing at them from any of that information. It could've been either side, and drawing a conclusion like Feaner and yourself have makes me have significant doubt in the validity of some of the information being posted here.

In my mind if you don't know who, you don't say who. Keep it factual.
The reporters were approaching a Ukrainian checkpoint and were then fired upon. From their own commentary it appears that they were eventually able to identify themselves and surrender. We have a few logical and evidentiary elements to consider. First, if it was Russian infiltrators firing at them, why wouldn't they finish the job? Second, Ukrainian security and military/paramilitary forces have been firing upon suspicious civilians multiple times, making this a plausible scenario. Third, if it wasn't Russian infiltrators but Russian regulars, why would they then quote Ukrainian sources that it was Russian infiltrators?

I think we can eliminate the scenario of Russian regulars altogether. The most plausible version is trigger happy territorial defense, or someone similar, firing at a car that they deemed suspicious for whatever reason. The "Russian infiltrators" version is in principle plausible but is certainly strange. Where did the fire come from? It looked like they were getting shot at from the checkpoint. Last but not least, if they did get shot at by Russian infiltrators, this would be the first confirmed case of Russian infiltrators. And they just happened to shoot up journalists, near a Ukrainian checkpoint?
 

phreeky

Active Member
I think you need to pay more attention when reading before you question people and call them unreliable.
I don't think I went so far as to call anyone here unreliable. Perhaps a bit keen to jump to conclusions. From what I've read elsewhere, that news crew consisted of 2x ex-military (one ex-marine, cannot recall the other) and they themselves have claimed it was Russians. While that may turn out to be complete rubbish, they're still much better placed to make a judgement than any of us.

TBH the general aftermath footage that's online if you look around leans much more heavily in the opposite direction to what is posted here, and that's all I'll say about that. I'll bow out now as I've gathered it's an unpopular topic here.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
the general aftermath footage that's online if you look around leans much more heavily in the opposite direction to what is posted here, and that's all I'll say about that. I'll bow out now as I've gathered it's an unpopular topic here
In here, we are trying to find out which more plausible situation that happening in the ground, regardless our own each personal opinion on the war. We don't want to 'eat' all information from media from both side as both of them clearly fighthing their own propaganda war. Personally when I look media from both side, I try to see what's in the middle, as in this situation the middle seems the probable that'd happening in the ground.

As for this shooting, the news crew claim to be in the area that fully under control of Ukranian forces whether their regulars or militia. For me If the shooting coming from Russian, then what they claim (as news media team) on the situation on the ground also false. Russian forces actually control much larger portion on Kyiv that Ukranian claim (which western media like them eat it as gold information).

On other topic:


This article from aviation news simpleflying shown a Russian government IL-96, shown flying to US into DC direction. Putin clearly says he is interested more to talk with Biden then Zelensky.

Add:

From Chinese media, the flight officially to pick up Russian Diplomats that being kick out by US. So officially still no direct talk between US and Russia.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
I was wondering how long would it take for a Ukrainian pilot to learn how to fly something like an F-16 or an A-10. I am not talking about training from scratch. I am talking about pilots who have perhaps already had fast jet experience.

The Ukraine is currently trying and by the sounds of things failing to get their hands on Russian combat aircraft. The US on the other hand have an aircraft boneyard full of admittedly worn out fighters and other equipment some of which could be bought back up to combat status reasonably quickly.
 

phreeky

Active Member
The Ukraine is currently trying and by the sounds of things failing to get their hands on Russian combat equipment. The US on the other hand have an aircraft boneyard full of admittedly worn out fighters and other equipment some of which could be bought back up to combat status reasonably quickly.
I don't expect the US will be approving of the use of US-developed aircraft to end up over there. I think it would be an escalation they want to avoid - in particular I doubt they want to send anything over there that has the ability to reach into Russian territory. But that's purely speculation on my behalf.

There is also a lot of evidence of significant Russian aircraft losses (i.e. videos of the missile hits, photos of the wreckage, videos of pilot interrogations) - the risk of friendly fire would surely be in the front of the minds of any pilot now.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
was wondering how long would it take for a Ukrainian pilot to learn how to fly something like an F-16 or an A-10. I am not talking about training from scratch. I am talking about pilots who have perhaps already had fast jet experience.
Based on experience that I heard from TNI-AU when their 'Western' train pilots transitioning to Flankers, it will take at least 6 month. However it will take at least one year for Ground crew to fully familiarise to support those Flankers and Russian systems, from Western systems that they used too. Even that, from what I gather Russian ground team still assits them as factory familiarisation team for a year after that.

Ground crew familiarisation that will take more time. I do expect Ukranian pilots and ground crew team will face similar familiarisation period from Sovyet system that they are familiar with to US system.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This come from Indian media website. Russian claim they shoot down 4 Ukrainian AF Su-27 in aerial dogfights. This is still just Russian claim, still need to be verified by independent parties or substantial evidence from Russian side. Su-27 is the prime Ukraine fighters, thus Russian clearly want to shown they can handle the best Ukraine AF can throw.

However this development plus Zelensky getting desprate for no fly zone, for me shown Ukrainian (which taking wholle by Western media) claim on Russia still not controlling Ukraine Air Space is shown contradictions. Zelenksy clearly shown desperation for NATO to directly involve fighthing in his side (not just send supply). Something that everyone knows it is unreasonable to expect, when NATO clearly shown their position not getting active involvement in the war.
 

oldsig127

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Russians have announced a ceasefire and opening of humanitarian corridors so civilians can leave Mariupol and Volnovakha. The Ukrainian side has reportedly agreed on the routes:
and yet:


Multiple reports in Western press at least, possibly all based on the Ukrainian claim, but some with reporters actually on the ground may be more credible.

oldsig
 

phreeky

Active Member
This is still just Russian claim, still need to be verified by independent parties or substantial evidence from Russian side. Su-27 is the prime Ukraine fighters, thus Russian clearly want to shown they can handle the best Ukraine AF can throw.
Ukraine has previously acknowledged the loss of fighters and honoured the aircrew involved in the conflict. It may not come immediately, but if these losses are true then I expect they'll also follow up with an announcement.

The blog documenting the losses (only those with some evidence) - Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - so far does not show these. The latest was March 3 (Su-27).
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't think I went so far as to call anyone here unreliable. Perhaps a bit keen to jump to conclusions. From what I've read elsewhere, that news crew consisted of 2x ex-military (one ex-marine, cannot recall the other) and they themselves have claimed it was Russians. While that may turn out to be complete rubbish, they're still much better placed to make a judgement than any of us.

TBH the general aftermath footage that's online if you look around leans much more heavily in the opposite direction to what is posted here, and that's all I'll say about that. I'll bow out now as I've gathered it's an unpopular topic here.
If you have evidence pointing the opposite direction, emphasis on evidence, please feel free to post it here. I'm happy to have more information.

and yet:


Multiple reports in Western press at least, possibly all based on the Ukrainian claim, but some with reporters actually on the ground may be more credible.

oldsig
I haven't had time to catch up on the latest reports, but I strongly suspect the Russian counter-claim will be that Azov isn't letting civilians leave. In principle it doesn't make sense for Russia to prevent civilians from leaving. However facts are facts, and it will probably be hard to sort out the exact situation for some time. I'll publish anything I find here.
 
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phreeky

Active Member
If you have evidence pointing the opposite direction, emphasis on evidence, please feel free to post it here. I'm happy to have more information.
I don't think I've stated anything with certainty and been extremely clear that they could've been shot at from either side. The claims of being shot at by Russians is a claim of the news crew themselves:

The link you provided (Восточный свяZной) provided absolutely no reference to how they concluded it was Ukranian militants and completely glossed over the report from the source itself. It certainly doesn't come across as a reliable source itself, is it essentially just a social media post?
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
What is so surprising? If things go terribly wrong for him, it is desired that he has a way out, as opposed to.finding himself trapped. If he finds himself trapped, there's no knowing what he might do, especially if he feels his personal position is at risk.



Time and time again he's said that he seeks a new government in Kiev. Pulling back without achieving that would be an admission of failure and would further damage his standing at home. Doing that would also mean that the invasion was for nothing.

He's seeking more than regime change.


"Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Kyiv for the breakdown and said that Ukraine’s leadership “is putting under question the future existence of Ukrainian statehood” by refusing his demands to disarm and renounce its alignment with the West."


This can be found in the Wall Street Journal and The Australian.

I think he's been chasing an Anchluss, but it seems to have gone wrong.
 

GermanHerman

Active Member
He's seeking more than regime change.


"Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Kyiv for the breakdown and said that Ukraine’s leadership “is putting under question the future existence of Ukrainian statehood” by refusing his demands to disarm and renounce its alignment with the West."


This can be found in the Wall Street Journal and The Australian.

I think he's been chasing an Anchluss, but it seems to have gone wrong.
I dont think so.

When Russia finaly enters into negotiations with the west it's in a better Position starting out with the declared aim to cease the whole country. It leaves them room to retreat to "just" turn ukraine into a client state in exchange for something from the west.

Besides that I think the losses of the RUAF yesterday shed light on the mysterious absence of the Air force during the first couple of days.
 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
I dont think so.

When Russia finaly enters into negotiations with the west it's in a better Position starting out with the declared aim to cease the whole country. It leaves them room to retreat to "just" turn ukraine into a client state in exchange for something from the west.

Besides that I think the losses of the RUAF yesterday shed light on the mysterious absence of the Air force during the first couple of days.
Or maybe modern history is repeating itself
Is he on their team or oue team
Never know with those blokea
He is still playing a good hand
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I don't think I've stated anything with certainty and been extremely clear that they could've been shot at from either side. The claims of being shot at by Russians is a claim of the news crew themselves:

The link you provided (Восточный свяZной) provided absolutely no reference to how they concluded it was Ukranian militants and completely glossed over the report from the source itself. It certainly doesn't come across as a reliable source itself, is it essentially just a social media post?
It comes from the contents of the video itself. The report you provided says this:

"We didn't know it at the time, but we were later told by the Ukrainians that we were being ambushed by a saboteur Russian reconnaissance squad."

In other words, it's the claim of Ukrainian officials. They themselves thought:

"At this stage we thought it was a Ukrainian army checkpoint firing at us and that it was a mistake, so we started screaming we were journalists, but the rounds kept coming. "

At no point in the report do they state that they think it was Russians. In the moment they believed they were being fired upon by Ukrainians. They were later told by other Ukrainian officials that it was Russian infiltrators. Why Russian infiltrators would fire at either a) a random civilian car or b) a car full of western journalists is completely unclear. Neither is it clear how anyone knew it was Russian infiltrators. Meanwhile, we have a continuing witch-hunt level of hysteria regarding Russian infiltrators in Ukraine. It seems to me that by far the likeliest scenario is that they were fired upon by a green unit of territorial defense fighters.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I haven't had time to catch up on the latest reports, but I strongly suspect the Russian counter-claim will be that Azov isn't letting civilians leave. In principle it doesn't make sense for Russia to prevent civilians from leaving. However facts are facts, and it will probably be hard to sort out the exact situation for some time. I'll publish anything I find here.
Russia has been claiming Ukraine prevents civilians from leaving their cities for at least a couple days.
Talking about Ukrainian army, not just some battalion somewhere.
 

Rock the kasbah

Active Member
It comes from the contents of the video itself. The report you provided says this:

"We didn't know it at the time, but we were later told by the Ukrainians that we were being ambushed by a saboteur Russian reconnaissance squad."

In other words, it's the claim of Ukrainian officials. They themselves thought:

"At this stage we thought it was a Ukrainian army checkpoint firing at us and that it was a mistake, so we started screaming we were journalists, but the rounds kept coming. "

At no point in the report do they state that they think it was Russians. In the moment they believed they were being fired upon by Ukrainians. They were later told by other Ukrainian officials that it was Russian infiltrators. Why Russian infiltrators would fire at either a) a random civilian car or b) a car full of western journalists is completely unclear. Neither is it clear how anyone knew it was Russian infiltrators. Meanwhile, we have a continuing witch-hunt level of hysteria regarding Russian infiltrators in Ukraine. It seems to me that by far the likeliest scenario is that they were fired upon by a green unit of territorial defense fighters.
I think everyone has forgotten the poor old blokes who were manning the checkpoint
The reporters were in an unmarked vehicle, me I would have shot all my ammo and asked questions later
Dunno sounds like if a helicopter pilot told me we can't fit everyone in
Reckon I'd work out a way
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
and yet:


Multiple reports in Western press at least, possibly all based on the Ukrainian claim, but some with reporters actually on the ground may be more credible.

oldsig
I cannot confirm any Western reporters in or around Mariupol. AP ran a story with photos from earlier in the week, noting they were taken when reporters were still there. I did not expect any to be remaining there, to be honest.

Early on, when the ceasefire was first reported as having broken down, certain major US and UK media outlets reported the Russians being at fault as fact in headlines or beginning of broadcast, but citing only Ukrainian officials later on. Others reported "according to Ukrainian sources" as the headline or lede. UN agencies in contact with local NGOs reported shelling (verified), but did not assign blame or even assign blame yet-to-be-verified, last I checked. It appears both sides were firing away, but who started it? I can't tell. It's quite possible it was difficult to tell. More recent media reports say the Ukrainian DOD claims the ceasefire was a Russian "ruse so they could regroup" which *might* indicate the Ukrainian side (likely hot-headed AZOV) fired first.

There are videos posted to social media purporting to show AZOV preventing civilians from leaving, but I have no way of knowing how reliable the accounts posting them might be, or whether they are recycled videos from years past. Ditto for the social media posts showing Ukrainian positions, including mortars, etc., on rooftops firing at the Russians, and civilians very upset with AZOV for firing from "our rooftops and from between our buildings so that Russians fire back on us." (Sadly and sickeningly, it looks like even more war porn is being posted today, including many more claiming to be videos of grossly mistreated and summarily executed POWs.)

I have been very worried about Mariupol for a number of reasons, and had my doubts about the ceasefire actually coming true, let alone holding. AZOV presence is naturally troubling. These guys would far rather go out in a blaze of glory than risk capture by the Russians. They are far from their homes (western Ukraine and foreign countries), so it's not Granny, Mom, wife and kids downstairs they endanger while firing from a rooftop. It's not even "their people". Again, perhaps I am overly humaitarian, but given the situation it seems the brave and honorable thing for the defenders of the city to do is allow the civilians to leave -- even if it means they will get killed faster and more easily, or even if it means negotiating a surrender. This valiant course might well be taken if the defending forces stationed there were all or mainly professional and at least some from the area, but with AZOV there ... I do so worry.

Mind you, I am not saying people should not defend their country, even against the odds, even sacrificing themselves if it has a chance of contributing to their country's victory. What I am saying is that in a situation like this, allowing your younger siblings and children to live to fight another day might well be the better part of valor, given that holding out to the bitter end will not change the outcome of the war or even attrit enemy forces in sufficient numbers to help your compatriots in the next battle.

The civilians in Mariupol, if what we know is even partially correct, might be between a hammer and an anvil. If so, I hope as few as possible are pulverized.
Captain iron pants is there anything out there of 5 star hotels getting hit.
Usually where all the reporters and foreign helpers? Hang out
Ah yes (wry chuckle), and besides them, those sad men who always turn up on the edges of these conflicts, loitering about the five-star bar. It's sometimes an amusing game to try to guess why they have shown up -- another aide to some minor congressperson nobody vaguely important can be ,bothered to meet with? So they try "making important connections" at the bar, and failing that, eavesdropping so they can write *something* in a report for the boss to justify the expense account.

Another flunky from some company hoping to get a subcontract from a favored contractor when the reconstruction money from Western governments starts flowing in? Another make-up-your-own-NGO guy, you know the type -- milk the kind-hearted folks back home for generous donations and feed them weekly photos of "peace meetings" or "healing sessions", paying the locals a few measly dollars to attend, hand out some old clothes, then spend the rest of the week lounging about or having adventures or polishing your halo while dreaming of eventually returning home as an ill-deserved "hero" yet hero nonetheless?

Or perhaps saddest of all, the middle-aged divorced guy who, having quit or lost his job, decided to buy a plane ticket and head for adventure in the belief those highflaluting (and sometimes high-paying) international alphabet agencies will be thrilled to hire anyone brave enough to show up, only to be told over and over again to go home and apply through proper channels, but good luck, as you don't have the right resume? On the upside, as he usually has the right color passport, he might snag himself a young hottie who will stick around until permanent residency kicks in.

The list goes on and on, of course. And then there are the activist kids with useless or half-completed degrees, plus cool slogans and graphics on their backpacks, but they don't tend to hang around the InterConti bar.
 
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