rsemmes
Active Member
I object to "whataboutism".
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,162
If the argument that is that Europe should diversify it's energy sources, I think you're right and I think that's obvious. But excluding Russia from the basket especially when the infrastructure already exists doesn't make sense. You don't get better energy security by having fewer sources. Keeping some Russian resources in the mix would encourage Russia to keep the infrastructure in place, and even develop it somewhat, and it would provide a fallback if other sources had disruptions for whatever reasons. Dependence on Russia is bad, but being a customer doesn't automatically equate to dependence.
rsemmes
Active Member
There is mound north of Svitle, they could be just waiting to tight the noose? I've seen more than a few tall buildings (SE) in Bilitske, but I don't know what kind of "preparation" it has suffered.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,164
The town is basically destroyed. There's plenty of standing buildings, but it's been hit hard for quite some time. In general any town that spends a substantial amount of time on the front lines ends up destroyed in this war. The ones that come through more or less intact are ones where Russia manages to take them relatively quickly, like Selidovo or Kurakhovo. Even Dobropol'ye is slowly getting wrecked. Neither is at the state Artemovsk/Bakhmut was at, or Toretsk is at, but neither is a functioning urban locale in any way and would require substantial reconstruction.
Biletskoe has quite a few mid-rise apartments, and is generally fairly dense, even more so than Rodinskoe. Maybe Russia will make a play for the refuse mound that you mentioned, but so far they haven't even consolidated inside Noviy Donbas. I guess we'll see. Control of that refuse mound would cut Biletskoe off from Dobropol'ye, and would even compromise some Ukrainian positions towards Dobropol'ye, so it would be a good position for Russian forces to aim for. But there's not much cover on it, and there's a mine complex under Ukrainian control east of it and south of it, meaning it might be hard to hold.
EDIT: Just took a look at AMK's map and he has Russian forces with a foothold in southern Biletskoe, where Suriyak has the grey zone. He also has Russian controlling the mine complex west of Rodinskoe, again where Suriyak has a grey zone. I suspect they're interpreting the same underlying information slightly differently.
rsemmes
Active Member
The "best" option seems to be taking Bilitske, then.
Even after that, and taking the mine and consolidating Novii Donbas, they're going to need a wide front to attack Dobropillia: the yards to the SW, the mine complex to the NE and School 7 in the centre; the houses to the SE would be the "easy" part.
I wonder if, by that time, Ukraine would still be contesting Liman and Kostiantinivka.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
About 45% of oil to China is in 2 pipelines. It has some spare capacity if I read it correctly, but I cannot say how much.
The power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is estimate to start deliveries (it isnt built yet) 2030 to 2035.
Since railways arent used as a major transport route right now, I doubt you could ship enough oil by rail to be relevant. I could be wrong.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Russian LNG tanker Artic Metagaz hit in the med (via H. I. Sutton):
Supposedly hit E of Malta by a USV.
Supposedly hit E of Malta by a USV.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,168
If they're not used, doesn't that indicate the potential for spare capacity?
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Just to add some context. I am not familiar enough with the Russian cost structure, but overall, moving oil by rail is extremely inefficient. For example, here in Canada you are looking at adding $10+ to the cost of barrel vs pipeline. The risk of ecological disaster increases dramatically. In addition, you are looking at increased transport costs to everything else that is moved by rail, in particular other exports that do not flow, such as agriculture (oilseed and grain), lumber, and so on. Those usually use the same rail infrastructure and move the exact same way, so competition for booking cars becomes intense, driving the prices up significantly and quickly. This is it in a nutshell. Not sure how this relates to Russia cost wise, especially given the reports that their railways are in the times of trouble. They have one of the best pipeline network in the world though, but most of it is heading in the wrong direction in today’s environment.
personaldesas
Active Member
Is there really any merit to Syrsky's claim? And if so, is that really a meaningful metric?
personaldesas
Active Member
BBC said:
Russia blames Ukrainian naval drones as tanker sinks in Mediterranean
The Arctic Metagaz went down between Libya and Malta after it was hit by explosions and a fire, Libyan officials say.
www.bbc.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,172
He's being very generous with Ukrainian gains and conservative with Russia ones, in my opinion. However there's sufficient fog of war for this to not be a simple lie, but a creative interpretation of the realities on the ground. February has definitely been a slower month for Russia.
rsemmes
Active Member
Zelenski is a threat to the EU!
The headlines:
Hungary confirms it is holding seven Ukrainian bank workers and $80m
Then, somewhere in the article:
The Ukrainian leader also hinted that if Hungary's prime minister continued to block EU funding for Ukraine, then Ukrainian armed forces would be given his address to "communicate with him in their own language".
www.bbc.co.uk
There is some disagreement/misunderstanding and Zelenski goes for "politics by other means"; what we often do, business as usual.
The headlines:
Hungary confirms it is holding seven Ukrainian bank workers and $80m
Then, somewhere in the article:
The Ukrainian leader also hinted that if Hungary's prime minister continued to block EU funding for Ukraine, then Ukrainian armed forces would be given his address to "communicate with him in their own language".
Hungary confirms it is holding seven Ukrainian bank workers and $80m
The bank said they were in two vans carrying $80m (£60m) worth of cash between Austria and Ukraine.
www.bbc.co.uk
There is some disagreement/misunderstanding and Zelenski goes for "politics by other means"; what we often do, business as usual.
Hoover
Member
We have to wait for the elections in april. It looks like Orban´s Fidesz party will not win. With the new pro European candidate Magyar and his anti-corruption politics he is in the main parts the opposite to Orban, who is pro-Russian and deeply corrupt.Zelenski is a threat to the EU!
The headlines:
Hungary confirms it is holding seven Ukrainian bank workers and $80m
Then, somewhere in the article:
The Ukrainian leader also hinted that if Hungary's prime minister continued to block EU funding for Ukraine, then Ukrainian armed forces would be given his address to "communicate with him in their own language".
Hungary confirms it is holding seven Ukrainian bank workers and $80m
The bank said they were in two vans carrying $80m (£60m) worth of cash between Austria and Ukraine.
There is some disagreement/misunderstanding and Zelenski goes for "politics by other means"; what we often do, business as usual.
And Zelenskij: He is doing that what he has been elected for: Leading his country. And now in a course of war which he didn´t start. HIs land is attacked by a brutal criminal bunch of terrorists. And he is doing everything possible that Ukraine will survive the war as a souvereign country without loosing as much as possible. If you don´t understand that then think about it.
Putin is at threat to Europe, as such figures as you who are attacking the defender and not the attacker. The US, UK and France left Ukraine alone in 2014 and forget their responsibilty to the whole situation. If I wouöld be Zerlenskij I would act similar. Putin don´t want to end the war without a Ukrainan surrender (nothing less are the Russian demands), so UA has to fight.
rsemmes
Active Member
Still sticking to the valleys... Is Russia going anywhere in Neskuchne?
Vesele? Trying to advance into Liptsi from another direction?
Vesele? Trying to advance into Liptsi from another direction?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,176
I think these are opportunistic gains with no greater goal in mind. It's part of a pattern of Russian small border-area advances. For example they took Krugloe:
They also keep advancing in northern Sumy area;
If the war lasts long enough and Ukraine gets weak enough, these advances will start to cascade and transform into a real threat. But right now they're very slow attempts to create that buffer zone that Putin mentioned. Even the moves east of Sumy are small enough and disconnected enough from the fighting at Yunakovka to not form a solid and coherent threat to Sumy, though this is probably the area where they're closest to achieving something like that.
rsemmes
Active Member
No, I don't think Zelenski is going to invade Hungary, Zelenski is that idiot who went to the White House to tell POTUS what to do; while pouting. The same idiot who was telling NATO what to do.
Why do we have to wait for the elections? Do we have to wait for Zelenski to invade Hungary? Corrupt, like Ukraine? Why a Hungarian party cannot be pro-Russian? Are you some kind of Trump, dictating presidents to other countries?
Putin is leading his country, I do agree with you. A criminal bunch of Nazi terrorists? (That adds anything?) Terrorists planting car-bombs and blowing up Germany's energy infrastructure? As Zelenski is stubbornly still "in the fight", I cannot agree with your "without losing as much as possible".
Yes, Zelenski is a threat to Europe, he threatened military action against an EU and NATO member; and he was not drunk in a pub talking to his friends, those corrupt cronies of his.
I would say that Ukraine was alone in 2014. Now, what "responsibility" is that? The Minsk Accords? An alliance? Fighting invasions? Where is the document for that responsibility? What does it say? Responsible for what, when, where? Trump has used the words "unconditional surrender", when has Putin used the word "surrender", negotiating in Istanbul, just after starting the war? Zelenski does not want to end the war without a favourable conclusion, how he is going to achieve that is a different matter. Hopefully, you do realize that.
Wait... Russia started the war, Ukraine is defending (and invading Russia)? Really? Thank you for letting us know.
Anyway, even if I don't know much about banks, transporting millions in cash across borders, doesn't sound like SOP for banks. They heard of money transfers?
Anyway, what about holding (attacking) Hungary's energy's supply hostage? Western democracies way of waging war?
Anyway, what happened to the "freedom of the seas"? Sinking ships without warning is the 2026 version?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #14,178
I think this is a good piece to share, to understand why this war has gone on so long, and yet neither side appears to be about to collapse. And it's interesting that the total forces involved, despite a fairly large war, are relatively limited. I think he might be right, in that a total mobilization, or something closer to it, can actually lead to defeat, through an over-expenditure of resources, when a clear path to victory is absent.
delwinstrategy.substack.com
Endurance in war: why the Russo–Ukrainian war can last far longer than the World Wars
Of calibration in the war effort
rsemmes
Active Member
How to sell a fairy tale.
If you don't, or cannot, compare it, you may finish the Forbes' article believing that Russia is not fighting with sharpened spades (entrenching tools), but with stones and sticks.
"As the Russia–Ukraine war approaches its fourth year, the Russian military has yet to find an effective way to break through the Ukrainian defensive lines. This remains the case despite Russia fielding a larger force, maintaining a steadier flow of equipment, and possessing a wide range of advanced military technologies. While Russia’s underperformance has multiple causes, a central factor has been the inability of officers on the front lines to make the critical tactical decisions needed to win individual engagements. This shortfall stems from a combination of Russia’s top-down military doctrine and a general lack of experience among many junior officers. In response, Russia has announced plans to field an AI-enabled digital decision-support tool, known as Svod, to assist front-line leaders in making these key tactical decisions."
*Russia is not trying that break-through.
*Is Ukraine fighting with stones and sticks?
*Russia is still advancing; Ukraine was not winning in February, it was losing slower. Is Ukraine over-performing? Underperforming according to our expectations, to a p2p war or to US in Iran right now? (No, Russia is not doing great, but what happened to the HIMARS, F-16, Tomahawk...)
*Russia and Ukraine are ex-Soviet armies, there was a comment long ago about one Ukrainian HQ looking like a NATO HQ. Both are experienced or both are inexperienced. I don't know about Frunze nowadays, but I doubt that every Ukrainian officer is suddenly imbued with the mission-objective German doctrine.
"The Russian military has historically relied on a highly centralized command structure that emphasizes strict adherence to orders."
- So, the Soviet one. So, the Ukrainian one.
"Given the dynamic nature of the modern battlefield, this structural rigidity has imposed increasing costs on Russian battlefield performance."
- The same would apply to the performance of the Ukrainian army in Syria.
"Russia’s rapid troop expansion has placed large numbers of inexperienced and insufficiently trained junior officers into front-line leadership roles, particularly at the platoon level."
- Because Ukraine never expanded its army, obviously.
"Russian forces have increasingly relied on smaller-unit assaults, which demand rapid judgment and local adaptation and are difficult to direct effectively from higher headquarters."
- Russia has been doing that for a while and it is working.
"Comparable (to Svod) Ukrainian digital situational awareness systems have demonstrated clear value."
>Svod system, having already completed operational testing in December 2025. Russian forces are now expected to begin fielding the system in April 2026, with a goal of having it used across their military by September 2026.
*The first mentions of the Glaz/Groza complex in open publications date back to early 2024.
#Reporting from August 2025 suggests that Glaz/Groza has since become relatively widespread, with drone units, artillery batteries, fire control crews, and supporting reconnaissance elements all making routine use of its hardware and software.
- So, no one is fighting with sticks and stones.
"The system’s effectiveness will be constrained by both the quality of the collected data and the assumptions embedded in the underlying models. EW, data degradation, and disrupted connectivity, which are common on the battlefield, will inherently reduce the accuracy and timeliness of the information feeding the system."
- Something that is already happening to both armies.
"Both sides are increasingly drawing on advances from the commercial technology sector to support military operations."
- Thanks. So, it is a p2p war and Russia has more and Ukraine heavily depends on foreign aid.
Russia is not chasing technological elegance or conceptual completeness but rather applying AI selectively and ruthlessly in service of battlefield effectiveness.
...
By early 2025, however, Russian military scholars openly acknowledged that, despite the urgency, the Ministry of Defence and the emerging unmanned systems branch still had not fielded a fully functional, full-scale UAS management system.
How Russia Is Reshaping Command and Control for AI-Enabled Warfare
I have to wonder what is going to happen to Ukrainian factories and infrastructure once Russia fields that system.
If you don't, or cannot, compare it, you may finish the Forbes' article believing that Russia is not fighting with sharpened spades (entrenching tools), but with stones and sticks.
"As the Russia–Ukraine war approaches its fourth year, the Russian military has yet to find an effective way to break through the Ukrainian defensive lines. This remains the case despite Russia fielding a larger force, maintaining a steadier flow of equipment, and possessing a wide range of advanced military technologies. While Russia’s underperformance has multiple causes, a central factor has been the inability of officers on the front lines to make the critical tactical decisions needed to win individual engagements. This shortfall stems from a combination of Russia’s top-down military doctrine and a general lack of experience among many junior officers. In response, Russia has announced plans to field an AI-enabled digital decision-support tool, known as Svod, to assist front-line leaders in making these key tactical decisions."
*Russia is not trying that break-through.
*Is Ukraine fighting with stones and sticks?
*Russia is still advancing; Ukraine was not winning in February, it was losing slower. Is Ukraine over-performing? Underperforming according to our expectations, to a p2p war or to US in Iran right now? (No, Russia is not doing great, but what happened to the HIMARS, F-16, Tomahawk...)
*Russia and Ukraine are ex-Soviet armies, there was a comment long ago about one Ukrainian HQ looking like a NATO HQ. Both are experienced or both are inexperienced. I don't know about Frunze nowadays, but I doubt that every Ukrainian officer is suddenly imbued with the mission-objective German doctrine.
"The Russian military has historically relied on a highly centralized command structure that emphasizes strict adherence to orders."
- So, the Soviet one. So, the Ukrainian one.
"Given the dynamic nature of the modern battlefield, this structural rigidity has imposed increasing costs on Russian battlefield performance."
- The same would apply to the performance of the Ukrainian army in Syria.
"Russia’s rapid troop expansion has placed large numbers of inexperienced and insufficiently trained junior officers into front-line leadership roles, particularly at the platoon level."
- Because Ukraine never expanded its army, obviously.
"Russian forces have increasingly relied on smaller-unit assaults, which demand rapid judgment and local adaptation and are difficult to direct effectively from higher headquarters."
- Russia has been doing that for a while and it is working.
"Comparable (to Svod) Ukrainian digital situational awareness systems have demonstrated clear value."
>Svod system, having already completed operational testing in December 2025. Russian forces are now expected to begin fielding the system in April 2026, with a goal of having it used across their military by September 2026.
*The first mentions of the Glaz/Groza complex in open publications date back to early 2024.
#Reporting from August 2025 suggests that Glaz/Groza has since become relatively widespread, with drone units, artillery batteries, fire control crews, and supporting reconnaissance elements all making routine use of its hardware and software.
- So, no one is fighting with sticks and stones.
"The system’s effectiveness will be constrained by both the quality of the collected data and the assumptions embedded in the underlying models. EW, data degradation, and disrupted connectivity, which are common on the battlefield, will inherently reduce the accuracy and timeliness of the information feeding the system."
- Something that is already happening to both armies.
"Both sides are increasingly drawing on advances from the commercial technology sector to support military operations."
- Thanks. So, it is a p2p war and Russia has more and Ukraine heavily depends on foreign aid.
Russia is not chasing technological elegance or conceptual completeness but rather applying AI selectively and ruthlessly in service of battlefield effectiveness.
...
By early 2025, however, Russian military scholars openly acknowledged that, despite the urgency, the Ministry of Defence and the emerging unmanned systems branch still had not fielded a fully functional, full-scale UAS management system.
How Russia Is Reshaping Command and Control for AI-Enabled Warfare
I have to wonder what is going to happen to Ukrainian factories and infrastructure once Russia fields that system.
ComradeVortex
New Member
Colonel Oleksandr Dovhach, commander of the 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade, was killed in action on the eastern front while carrying out a combat mission.
Supposedly he was flying a Su-27 and according to OSINT he was shot down by a VKS Su-35S with either R-37M or R-77M missiles.
Supposedly he was flying a Su-27 and according to OSINT he was shot down by a VKS Su-35S with either R-37M or R-77M missiles.