The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
An alleged SBU infiltrator team was captured near Melitopol' by Russian forces. They were allegedly supposed to carry out terrorist attacks against local population, and try to pass it off as Russian forces.

Why would they be terrorist attacks? They are Ukrainian security or special forces are they not? They are not terrorists no matter what the Russians may claim. If you use that definition, then you can label Putin and the VDV, VVS, VMF and all the other Russian forces involved in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine as terrorists too. Which by the way I consider them to be because of the unprovoked, wanton, illegal attack by Putin and Russia on the Ukraine. I have seen excuses for it but none of them stand up to scrutiny.
 
I dont know how correctly/accurate this post is, but if true, then its not such a smart upload.
It shows that narcism can be deathly, specially in wartime.
This could be true. First photo was published on many websites - I came across it while browsing interenet sources.
I am surprised that in order to avoid such situations appropriate steps were not taken on the Ukrainian side. After all, it is quite clear that today, when it is possible to analyze all available data in near-real-time, such behavior is deadly.
On the other hand, this probably explains the lack of such publications on the Russian side - except for photos and videos published by soldiers of rebellious republics and Chechen units.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Why would they be terrorist attacks? They are Ukrainian security or special forces are they not? They are not terrorists no matter what the Russians may claim. If you use that definition, then you can label Putin and the VDV, VVS, VMF and all the other Russian forces involved in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine as terrorists too. Which by the way I consider them to be because of the unprovoked, wanton, illegal attack by Putin and Russia on the Ukraine. I have seen excuses for it but none of them stand up to scrutiny.
Skeptical on a simple premise. At this stage of the conflict, an attempt by Ukraine to manufacture a false flag situation seems like a huge waste of resources. The Western media are already firmly on the side of Ukraine. Those who do not believe and subscribed to the Russian storyline will stay that way.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Drone footage of Russian platoon ambushing 2 Ukrainian BRDM-2's
they broke down what was happening quite well.

If you could get that footage along side helmet cam footage , would be about as good as most countries command rooms in terms of situation awareness.
Saw this about 3 days ago and somehow the Ukrainian had the original drone feed from the Russian drone … I think this is Russian propaganda. The Russian info doesn’t come out quickly into social media. The Ukrainian info tends to hit the press a lot faster because it’s not being suppressed.
 

Toptob

Active Member
Factually wrong — attempt at trolling
Why would they be terrorist attacks? They are Ukrainian security or special forces are they not? They are not terrorists no matter what the Russians may claim. If you use that definition, then you can label Putin and the VDV, VVS, VMF and all the other Russian forces involved in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine as terrorists too. Which by the way I consider them to be because of the unprovoked, wanton, illegal attack by Putin and Russia on the Ukraine. I have seen excuses for it but none of them stand up to scrutiny.
So "official" forces carrying out operations meant to terrorize a population are not terrorists, but military forces fighting for some geopolitical reasons are? So where the US soldiers in Iraq terrorists? What about the highly trained NZSAS fighters that New Zealand sent to Afghanistan? The Afghani's never asked ISAF to come to occupy their country for over a decade.

So is a major power exercising force for their geopolitical aims terrorism, or does that only count when you don't agree with their aims?
 
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Twain

Active Member
No. The tank in question was captured by rebels in the same set of photos that he uses as proof of a destroyed "Russian" (presumably rebel) T-64BV. He assumed it was a rebel T-64 based on the white Z. The source I have indicates that the Z was applied after. This is confirmed by the lack of Luna IR projector (making it a mod'17), and the Ukrainian paintjob.

That still leaves quite a few unanswered questions, I'm not contesting that it's a Ukrainian tank. My question is who actually damaged the tank and who controlled it when it was hit? If it was damaged and recoverable/usable, then paint a Z on it and claim it, if not why paint a Z on it in the first place? and who took the pictures? but this is ignoring the forest for staring at all the trees.

For the sake of discussion, let's say the Oryx list is terribly off the mark and Russian losses are half what has been reported. I doubt it is anywhere close to that much but it's a starting point for discussion. Currently with 862 currently reported Russian losses, that leaves us with 431. Then say actual losses are 20% underreported on Oryx, that gives us 517 losses in less than 2 weeks. That's a huge amount of equipment and vehicles to replace after the war, even if it ends right now.

Now the crux of the matter. Russia probably won't have the money to replace everything. Sanctions have frozen roughly half the Russian currency reserves. they've probably used billions trying to prop up the value of the ruble (currently at about 140 to the dollar) Then from that remaining amount, you need to deduct the cost of the war, more billions I'm sure.

Add in the chip sanctions and Russia may not even have the ability to produce any substantial amount of high tech weapons. To top it all off, most economists are expecting Russian GDP to fall 25-35% in the 2nd quarter. Russia could easily burn through that $325 billion very fast.

Don't get me wrong though, I still expect the Russians to "win", the question is what a win looks like for Putin. None of the likely "win" scenarios look good from a russian perspective.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
We have discussed previously why NATO will not implement a no-fly zone over Ukraine -- this article summarize the arguments quite well, but also go into some nuisances that I was not considering, well worth a read: The Dangerous Allure of the No-Fly Zone - War on the Rocks

Although it will not change the overall conclusion there is one factor they are not discussing -- the impact of 5. gen assets (F-35 and F-22). I believed (and still believe) there are now sufficient F-35 available that it could, together with some F-22 and perhaps supplemented by F-16/F-15/Typhoon/Rafales, make SEAD over Ukraine technically feasible, however, it will still not happen due to the implications of involving NATO in this war.

Another interesting article, an interview with Philip Karber, who previously visited the front lines in Ukraine 36 times over the last eight years and spent a total of 182 days on the battlefields: Ukraine Is Waging a 'People's War' Against Russia: How Will It End? - 19FortyFive

After reading this, I am thinking that perhaps the best assistance to Ukraine right now would be to supplement the MANPADs and anti-tank shipments with tanks from Poland. Also, I wonder if Greece could part with their S-300 if the US could offer Greece a deal on an alternative system?
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member

According to this CNN article, the mayor of this city was shot dead by Russian soldiers at the moment he was sharing out bread to the people.
If this is true, than this is really a bad way of image building/promotion.
CNN cites a Facebook page as the source of the article. CNN Europe Is reporting on their timeline under the headline "There's heavy fighting around Kyiv" (you have to scroll down as this item was posted to the CNN timeline 5hrs 30min ago):


Ukrinform says "the occupiers shot him dead, along with his comrades-in-arms Ruslan Karpenko and Ivan Zoria":


It appears he was shot while "heavy fighting" was going on, but who knows? The term "occupier" does not mean the city was under Russian occupation when these men were shot, as the Ukrainians call any Russian on their soil an "occupier" whether on territory they control or not. Just as the Russians called an alleged team of Ukrainian saboteurs allegedly engaged in sort of false false flag operation "terrorists" (see posts above -- a very fishy story put out by the Russians). Western media often simply parrots whatever the Ukrainian side says, not bothering to clean up the terminology in many cases, creating confusion.

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Ref the "terrorist" thing. The Ukrainians have been calling the Russian side, especially LDNR forces, "terrorists" for some time, so the Russians may be slinging that word right back at them. Yesterday, British tabloid headlines (and other media outlets around the world) were screaming that "Russian warlord Vladimir Zhoga who headed the Neo-Nazi Sparta Battalion" had been killed in Volnovakha. A nasty piece of work and war criminal yes, but a Neo-Nazi? As he was born in Sloviansk, he is not a Russian from Russia either, but the Western press gives that impression. The Russians have often painted Ukrainian forces with the broad brush of Neo-Nazi even though only a small fraction of them are. It looks to me like it's just insult trading going on.
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Now that we're hearing about local ceasefires and more about a general ceasefire, I'd like to at least propose an idea the west can implement to force Russia to either tone down, or outright deter it from later resuming an invasion.

If there is no ban on international aid of any form, western countries can simply establish non-military presence in large numbers, e.g construction projects, semi-permanent aid facilities, basically create many civilian tripwire targets that Russia wouldn't dare attack. We see the same happening in many countries, just not for this reason.
Of course also some minimal military logistical presence to evacuate civilians if Russia decides to target them anyway. The latter is not seen typically as a controversial demand.

This, as opposed to military tripwire forces that would obviously be banned.

I am aware this can be done technically without a ceasefire but this would be a cynical abuse of humanitarian missions and may prevent them further on.

Just exercising a thought. What do you guys think?
Perhaps I don't quite know what you mean by this. Why would any military be needed for evacuation? UNHCR, UNDP, UNFPA, WHO, ICRC, etc. have had offices in Ukraine for years. UNHCR has its own logistical officers, as do other top tier agencies. They don't need military for that. Humanitarian aid stations and trucks loaded with humanitarian supplies are already in-country. Of course the trucks can't move unless granted safe passage by whatever military force(s) control the area.

There is a UNCHR office in Slaviansk. What if it is damaged or destroyed by Russian shelling? What will happen? Antonio Guterres and Filippo Grandi will protest and condemn. Given the worldwide interest in this conflict, world leaders and media will condemn it. But that's it. Even when aid workers are killed, nothing much ever happens. They get killed all the time. So do UN troops and civilians.

Once the conflict is over, of course there will be construction projects financed by the West. The Western contractors will have offices, and there will likely be OSCE offices to facilitate coordination of projects between NATO countries and with the Ukrainian government, among other things. The humanitarian organizations already there will need to add additional staff of course, open more offices. More NGOs will arrive (lots already there).
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Why would they be terrorist attacks? They are Ukrainian security or special forces are they not? They are not terrorists no matter what the Russians may claim. If you use that definition, then you can label Putin and the VDV, VVS, VMF and all the other Russian forces involved in the Russian invasion of the Ukraine as terrorists too. Which by the way I consider them to be because of the unprovoked, wanton, illegal attack by Putin and Russia on the Ukraine. I have seen excuses for it but none of them stand up to scrutiny.
I used the word allegedly twice because both fact points as suspect. That having been said, in this conflict the word terrorist gets thrown around a lot. As pointed out by Capt.Ironpants, Ukraine has been calling any Russian forces or rebel forces terrorists routinely. Terrorist attack might just mean they were trying to blow a bridge in Russia's rear, or attack Russian troops.

Skeptical on a simple premise. At this stage of the conflict, an attempt by Ukraine to manufacture a false flag situation seems like a huge waste of resources. The Western media are already firmly on the side of Ukraine. Those who do not believe and subscribed to the Russian storyline will stay that way.
There's more reasons to be skeptical. SBU resources are limited, using them in this manner doesn't make sense. There's the risk of it backfiring and blowing up in their face publicity wise. The only plausible reason to pull a stunt like that is if they're genuinely concerned that their own population would welcome Russia or at least be apathetic enough to let Russia conduct the occupation with minimal fuss. Even then it would be a bad idea, and just not worth it. Especially since there have already been protests in the two largest cities Russia occupied. I wanted to preserve the claim made as a data point to see if anything comes of it moving forward. A lot of the time claims that are farfetched can be re-evaluated if additional information comes out. It's similar to the hunt for Russian infiltrators. Any one incident by itself is a plausible misunderstanding or even a possible real case. But the picture as a whole appears ridiculous.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
That still leaves quite a few unanswered questions, I'm not contesting that it's a Ukrainian tank. My question is who actually damaged the tank and who controlled it when it was hit? If it was damaged and recoverable/usable, then paint a Z on it and claim it, if not why paint a Z on it in the first place? and who took the pictures? but this is ignoring the forest for staring at all the trees.
You just described the scenario. The tank was captured and appeared recoverable. I'd have to scroll back though, but I believe it was abandoned rather then damaged.

For the sake of discussion, let's say the Oryx list is terribly off the mark and Russian losses are half what has been reported. I doubt it is anywhere close to that much but it's a starting point for discussion. Currently with 862 currently reported Russian losses, that leaves us with 431. Then say actual losses are 20% underreported on Oryx, that gives us 517 losses in less than 2 weeks. That's a huge amount of equipment and vehicles to replace after the war, even if it ends right now.
I want to be clear, I've gone through a lot of his results, and he is far better then 50% correct. The overwhelming majority of his losses, at least in my opinion, are beyond reasonable doubt. He has done a stellar job. There are individual cases where attribution is not obvious, and an even smaller handful in my opinion that are suspect. My commentary about his drop in reliability is in no way intended to imply that the overall picture of Russian losses is incorrect.

Now the crux of the matter. Russia probably won't have the money to replace everything. Sanctions have frozen roughly half the Russian currency reserves. they've probably used billions trying to prop up the value of the ruble (currently at about 140 to the dollar) Then from that remaining amount, you need to deduct the cost of the war, more billions I'm sure.

Add in the chip sanctions and Russia may not even have the ability to produce any substantial amount of high tech weapons. To top it all off, most economists are expecting Russian GDP to fall 25-35% in the 2nd quarter. Russia could easily burn through that $325 billion very fast.
The truth is that replacing BMP-2s and BTR-80/82s is very cheap. BMP-2s are still sitting in storage, as well as BMP-1 hulls that can be re-turreted (BMP-1AM). BMP-3s and BMDs are harder to replace but some para-assault units historically have used BTRs and BMPs instead of BMDs. Russia also has plenty of T-72s and T-80s in storage. Upgrading them to B3 mod'16 or BVM standard is relatively expensive, but only relative to the cost of BMP-2s refurbished. They are still drastically cheaper then any new MBT. So replenishing ground forces losses is in principle doable. However... the operation comes with a direct financial cost, and Russia is burning through an expensive missile arsenal. There's also the fact that for the next X amount of years efforts will have to focus on replenishing losses instead of re-arming, and it's likely they will go with the more affordable route. So this may have negative impact on the induction of new vehicle types, and will likely see older BTR-80 variants and BMP-2s pulled out of storage and quickly refurbished. BMP-1AMs may become more common.

There's also the issue of production bottlenecks both due to sanctions and due to the state of the factories (BMD production for example is bottlenecked at two btln sets per year). All in all this is going to be costly and have an overall negative impact on the state of the ground forces in terms of equipment. It's unclear whether the failures experienced here will be properly understood and lead to improvements in structure and planning.
 

Toptob

Active Member
Ref the "terrorist" thing. The Ukrainians have been calling the Russian side, especially LDNR forces, "terrorists" for some time, so the Russians may be slinging that word right back at them. Yesterday, British tabloid headlines were screaming that "Russian warlord Vladimir Zhoga who headed the Neo-Nazi Sparta Battalion" had been killed in Volnovakha. A nasty piece of work and war criminal yes, but a Neo-Nazi? As he was born in Sloviansk, he is not a Russian from Russia either, but the Western press gives that impression. The Russians have often painted Ukrainian forces with the broad brush of Neo-Nazi even though only a small fraction of them are. It looks to me like it's just insult trading going on.
Well, in the end these sort of things are all just rhetoric meant to obfuscate and confuse what's really going on. Just like Al-Qaida can be "terrorists" in one place and time (Iraq, Afghanistan), while they can receive support as freedom fighters deserving of aid in another (Syria, Yemen). At the same time, are there "Neo-Nazi's" in Ukraine? Well probably, at least there's groups that admire actual Nazi ideas and display Nazi symbolism in many parts of Eastern Europe. Many of these groups are football hooligans like in Poland, Hungary and Serbia. But realistically speaking these supposed "neo nazi" groups the Russians have been mentioning are more likely to be groups of criminals organized around a ethnocentric ideas being thugs as groups of criminals tend to be.

In the end it's a matter of perspective, and it's clear that the Western media are succeeding in instilling a certain perspective with the narrative they spin. This doesn't mean that the BBC is more honest or objective than RT or Sputnik. It just means they have been more persuasive. But it also doesn't mean that it makes them any less valuable of a source of information. It is up to us as the receivers of the information to look past the spin and rhetoric and distill it down to something realistic.

At least, that's why I come here. Because this forum is a place with thoughtful and intelligent people like @Feanor and @ngatimozart who have on many occasions have enlightened me on interesting and complicated issues. In the end I can only stress that most, if not all information in this day and age is best consumed with a big spoon of salt...
 

the concerned

Active Member
Whilst reading different opinions regarding a No fly zone. And I know this is contradicting my earlier opinion but I feel a No fly zone is impossible to implement. One of the main weapons being used by Russia is stand off missiles from within its own border Belarus . There is simply no way to stop these attacks without declaring war.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Kherson Airbase attack & fake news from Reuters

1. Although unconfirmed, Ukrainian General Staff informed today that a naval infantry unit conducted a night operation that destroyed some 30 helicopters at Kherson Airbase. Russian forces were dumb enough to land 30 helicopters in the captured airport outside city of Kherson (south coast), without adequate security. It is possible the night raid could've destroyed many of the helos parked on the eastern side of the airbase. We will have to wait for release of images to confirm. In other news, the Russian Navy Project 22160 patrol ship Vasily Bykov was targeted in GRAD shelling in Black Sea.

2. This is the 4th Su-34 shot down. The way the Russian Su-30SMs and Su-34s are being used in the invasion of Ukraine is very different from the doctrine of other Strike Eagle Users (like Isreal, S. Korea or Singapore) — any of ours will come as a complex strike package, supported by jamming (with SEAD missions allocated for certain ingress routes). The Russian Air Force seems to be relying a lot on gravity bombs; in contrast F-15SGs (w sniper pods), supported by Heron 1 UAVs are going do single pass drops of multiple guided munitions (like SDB II, JDAMS, & Paveway II). It seems that the Russian air force been so ineffective despite Russia's supposedly substantial advantage over Ukraine in the air domain.

3. Kremlin's propaganda media Reuters, just deleted this tweet. It promoted a fake video claiming to show Russian armour in "Kyiv region." But no snow in Kyiv region.

4. Filming POWs has long been viewed as contrary to the Geneva Convention. Ukraine’s filming and sharing videos of Russian prisoners of war violates the laws of war. Why are people sharing these videos and photos? The rules apply even against the aggressors. Despite my support for Ukraine in this struggle against the Russian invasion, it is important to flag such potential violations when they occur.

5. Former Korean Navy UDT/SEAL turned YouTube star Ken Rhee says he's gone on a mission to Ukraine to support the country. South Korea has responded to reports that Ken Rhee is on his way to Ukraine by re-iterating its citizens could face up to 1 year in prison if they enter Ukraine without permission.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
In my opinion this is one of the most detailed discussions which have appeared to date on the conflict.

Kofman goes into various things we already knew about but in more detail; how the Russians didn't expect any major protracted combat, not deploying and operating as per established training and doctrine, not employing all the means at their disposal [including UASs as extensively as expected - something I raised here last week], badly misreading the situation in the Ukraine, etc. Interestingly he mentions that units were only informed they were going into combat some two days prior.


I feel a No fly zone is impossible to implement.
Not impossible per see as NATO certainly.has the capability but it will be extremely challenging/problematic. The Ukraine is a large country and the Russian air force although clearly not as capable as NATO's isn't exactly the Iraqi, Libyan or Serbian air force. The Russians can also deploy GBADs assets they likes of which NATO has yet to face before. Various ways the Russians can contest a no fly zone without playing to NATO's strengths.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
…the Russians didn't expect any major protracted combat, not deploying and operating as per established training and doctrine, not employing all the means at their disposal [including UASs as,extensively as expected - something I raised here last week]…,
I acknowledge that you are correct on this point (on the Russian failure to use UAS as extensively as expected) and it’s spot on.
 

JGCAC

New Member
Re 3 and 4:

It's laughable to suggest Reuters is affiliated with Russian news. Talk about over the top rhetoric.

People are sharing those videos so we can learn more about this conflict. They're already out there in the public domain so not sharing them here makes no difference.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I acknowledge that you are correct on this point (on the Russian failure to use UAS as extensively as expected) and it’s spot on.
We've been hearing a lot of the Ukrainians improving their capabilities in various key areas, namely anti tank defence but missing from the narrative is the steps they've taken over the years to counter UASs. They learnt the hard way what the Russians are capable of with UASs, thus I can imagine that acquiring a counter UAS capability would have been a priority.
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