The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 27, 2022

Google maps no longer showing traffic in Ukraine. Still showing for Russia, Belarus, Poland, etc.

braddmlewis · Feb 27, 2022

Feanor said:
There's one other possibility. They know something we don't about the possibility of direct western involvement.

They do - everyone here is fixated on hard weapons. The really devastating weapon was freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. I don’t think people understand what is going to happen to the ruble and the Russian stock market…

Feanor · Feb 27, 2022

braddmlewis said:
They do - everyone here is fixated on hard weapons. The really devastating weapon was freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. I don’t think people understand what is going to happen to the ruble and the Russian stock market…

I sure don't. I know it's going to be bad, but honestly my knowledge of economics is too limited to say what it will look like. If you have some insight on the subject, please feel free to share.

braddmlewis · Feb 27, 2022

Feanor said:
I sure don't. I know it's going to be bad, but honestly my knowledge of economics is too limited to say what it will look like. If you have some insight on the subject, please feel free to share.

Effectively economics works at its core around supply and demand. One of the things that impacts demand here is risk - banks and investors do not want to be a party to a transaction that has risk - reputational, financial or any other kind so what will happen is investors sell off Russian ruble and stocks which push the price down because there are more sellers than buyers, this is where the Russian central bank would normally intervene and buy up those rubles and stocks, now that the central bank cannot do that because their assets are frozen the risk grows exponentially and causes a sell off. As we sit here now it is not impossible the ruble could be over 200 to the US dollar today and the futures for the Russian stock market are down 50% pre opening. Sberbank Europe is likely going to fold today and the parent bank (the Russian one) will not survive a run without having access to central bank funds so you could have banks in Russia going out of business in very short order. When that happens and 145 million people can’t buy food or get money from the bank much less soldiers don’t get paid you have an absolute plunge into the unknown. This has never ever happened before (don’t quote Iran or Venezuela because they are for all intent irrelevant from a financial markets standpoint). This is a scary development because of what it could prompt..

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 27, 2022

braddmlewis said:
Effectively economics works at its core around supply and demand. One of the things that impacts demand here is risk - banks and investors do not want to be a party to a transaction that has risk - reputational, financial or any other kind so what will happen is investors sell off Russian ruble and stocks which push the price down because there are more sellers than buyers, this is where the Russian central bank would normally intervene and buy up those rubles and stocks, now that the central bank cannot do that because their assets are frozen the risk grows exponentially and causes a sell off. As we sit here now it is not impossible the ruble could be over 200 to the US dollar today and the futures for the Russian stock market are down 50% pre opening. Sberbank Europe is likely going to fold today and the parent bank (the Russian one) will not survive a run without having access to central bank funds so you could have banks in Russia going out of business in very short order. When that happens and 145 million people can’t buy food or get money from the bank much less soldiers don’t get paid you have an absolute plunge into the unknown. This has never ever happened before (don’t quote Iran or Venezuela because they are for all intent irrelevant from a financial markets standpoint). This is a scary development because of what it could prompt..

Ah, but it has happened before. Russian soldiers weren't getting paid back around 1998. Pensions for widows of dead soldiers were still being paid, so some tragically committed suicide so their wives and children would not starve. This was even before Russian Financial Crisis of August 1998. Around 1992, it was incredibly dire, with inflation topping 2000%.

You night want to check out recent posts by @Ananda here.

braddmlewis · Feb 27, 2022

Capt. Ironpants said:
Ah, but it has happened before. Russian soldiers weren't getting paid back around 1998. Pensions for widows of dead soldiers were still being paid, so some tragically committed suicide so their wives and children would not starve. This was even before Russian Financial Crisis of August 1998. Around 1992, it was incredibly dire, with inflation topping 2000%.

You night want to check out recent posts by @Ananda here.

well I fear we are about to find out starting in a few hours. I am looking at my Reuters terminal and it’s going to be horrific

Capt. Ironpants · Feb 27, 2022

braddmlewis said:
well I fear we are about to find out starting in a few hours. I am looking at my Reuters terminal and it’s going to be horrific

It was heartbreaking when I spent time there in the late 1990s, and I heard many stories of how much worse it had been. The scenario you describe is outlined here:

Can the West ignite a financial crisis in Russia?

By targeting Russia’s biggest banks and cutting off its central bank’s access to its vast hoard of foreign exchange reserves the West has created the ingredients for a financial and economic crisis in Russia.

www.smh.com.au

Ananda · Feb 27, 2022

Rubel or Ruble will be trash by market today, there will be big sell out today on Russian Capital market. I have no doubt about that.

However the question for consumers is how far domestication of consumption goods level already done on Russian Economy. Putin on interview with International Journalist already claim since 2014 embargoes, Russian Products has completely become subsitute to Import for average consumers.

Russian administration seems already factor in the effect of full scale economic embargoes from West. The video that @webmaster put on other thread and also @Capt. Ironpants put in this thread, shown it can be hard adjustment for couple of years for Russian economy.

However Russian Central Banks also sit on very large Gold reserve. Thus it seems they are already prepared multiple scenarios on how the effect including seizures of some of their reserves in Western market. I do suspect they already shift some of their overseas reserves toward market that not control by west (most probable either Shanghai or Hong Kong).

So lets see if Putin overestimate Russian resiliances or West overestimate them selves and underestimate Russia. One thing is clear Russian market will be hard hit, and it will take some time for Russian economy to recover.

However will it be collapse as some in West hope for ? Like the discusion on that video, I have doubt in that. The discusion in video reflects what I got from my financial colleaugues that specialise in Russian and Near Russian market.

Some politicians in the west tend to forget, how fast Russian natural resources hold are. Just like in the video discusion, I also wonder if Euro zone prepare to pay the huge increase they are going to pay for switching the energy supply from Russia.

Can Germany function without Vladimir Putin’s gas?

Nord Stream 2 was meant to deliver 70% of country’s gas and switch to renewable energy sources has been slow

www.theguardian.com

German perhaps can afford that. How about the smaller economy ? Whose going to subsidise their bill ?

Like I said it is two way traffics. Let's see whose prepared more.

phreeky · Feb 27, 2022

Ananda said:
German perhaps can afford that. How about the smaller economy ? Whose going to subsidise their bill ?

Like I said it is two way traffics. Let's see whose prepared more.

I get the impression from mainstream news sources that the general population of Germany (and possibly a lot of countries) are more willing to take some pain than the government. If the government go along with it and the messaging is right, I don't think they'll be punished for it in elections.

Causes like this unites people.

Of course that's easy for me to say as somebody on the opposite side of the world without a need for gas for heating, so I might be reading the mood incorrectly.

Ananda · Feb 27, 2022

phreeky said:
the impression from mainstream news sources that the general population of Germany (and possibly a lot of countries) are more willing to take some pain than the government

The problem with public sentiments it is a fleeting issue. Some Politicians call public sentiment is work like a wind. Understandable since we are talking human emotion in here.

However like I post, I do believe German will be more ready, so does the other affluent economy in Euro zone. However my question will be more to those smaller less affluent economies in the East Euro. Whose going to pay their rising bill ? Will the more affluent public in the West Euro zone willing to take up the bill, at the same time they are also has to pay rising bills on their own ?

It will also happen in Russia, will Putin can still control rising discontent from Public due to rising bills cause by embargoes ?

Time will tell whose going to cave in first or whose going to be more resiliances. Public sentiments can be fleeting when it alrready hit their own pockets.

Steinmetz · Feb 28, 2022

Unconfirmed reports of possible negotiations floating around in Belarus.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498175978140536834

Live Russian Radio Chatter: 7933.00 KhZ - Frequency Filter 2.70 KhZ

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901

For those interested: A Discord server has been set up for both Ukrainian and Russian speaking translators. Continuous live translations of what is being said. Tons of intense chatter has been archived(Including from firefights). From the recent chatter(From a group fighting West of Kiev) they've been very focused on setting up fuel stations and making sure fuel trucks are properly escorted. Latest is they're about to storm Makariv from both the east and west. There have been a few instances of Ukrainians hijacking the coms with pig squeal noises on loop. Some of the chatter indicates a clear lack of coordination(Primarily between ground units), some of it indicated some good connection between CAS and ground units.

Join the Ukrainian Radio Watchers Discord Server!

Arji · Feb 28, 2022

So the talks ended up being done in Belarus anyway? I thought Zalensky prefer a more neutral ground?

Feanor · Feb 28, 2022

Arji said:
So the talks ended up being done in Belarus anyway? I thought Zalensky prefer a more neutral ground?

I believe the talks fell through.

Feanor · Feb 28, 2022

Update. It's been quiet so far so this update mostly has details, no major movements. Another map, it looks reasonably correct.

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