Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Google maps no longer showing traffic in Ukraine. Still showing for Russia, Belarus, Poland, etc.
They do - everyone here is fixated on hard weapons. The really devastating weapon was freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. I don’t think people understand what is going to happen to the ruble and the Russian stock market…There's one other possibility. They know something we don't about the possibility of direct western involvement.
I sure don't. I know it's going to be bad, but honestly my knowledge of economics is too limited to say what it will look like. If you have some insight on the subject, please feel free to share.They do - everyone here is fixated on hard weapons. The really devastating weapon was freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. I don’t think people understand what is going to happen to the ruble and the Russian stock market…
Effectively economics works at its core around supply and demand. One of the things that impacts demand here is risk - banks and investors do not want to be a party to a transaction that has risk - reputational, financial or any other kind so what will happen is investors sell off Russian ruble and stocks which push the price down because there are more sellers than buyers, this is where the Russian central bank would normally intervene and buy up those rubles and stocks, now that the central bank cannot do that because their assets are frozen the risk grows exponentially and causes a sell off. As we sit here now it is not impossible the ruble could be over 200 to the US dollar today and the futures for the Russian stock market are down 50% pre opening. Sberbank Europe is likely going to fold today and the parent bank (the Russian one) will not survive a run without having access to central bank funds so you could have banks in Russia going out of business in very short order. When that happens and 145 million people can’t buy food or get money from the bank much less soldiers don’t get paid you have an absolute plunge into the unknown. This has never ever happened before (don’t quote Iran or Venezuela because they are for all intent irrelevant from a financial markets standpoint). This is a scary development because of what it could prompt..I sure don't. I know it's going to be bad, but honestly my knowledge of economics is too limited to say what it will look like. If you have some insight on the subject, please feel free to share.
Ah, but it has happened before. Russian soldiers weren't getting paid back around 1998. Pensions for widows of dead soldiers were still being paid, so some tragically committed suicide so their wives and children would not starve. This was even before Russian Financial Crisis of August 1998. Around 1992, it was incredibly dire, with inflation topping 2000%.Effectively economics works at its core around supply and demand. One of the things that impacts demand here is risk - banks and investors do not want to be a party to a transaction that has risk - reputational, financial or any other kind so what will happen is investors sell off Russian ruble and stocks which push the price down because there are more sellers than buyers, this is where the Russian central bank would normally intervene and buy up those rubles and stocks, now that the central bank cannot do that because their assets are frozen the risk grows exponentially and causes a sell off. As we sit here now it is not impossible the ruble could be over 200 to the US dollar today and the futures for the Russian stock market are down 50% pre opening. Sberbank Europe is likely going to fold today and the parent bank (the Russian one) will not survive a run without having access to central bank funds so you could have banks in Russia going out of business in very short order. When that happens and 145 million people can’t buy food or get money from the bank much less soldiers don’t get paid you have an absolute plunge into the unknown. This has never ever happened before (don’t quote Iran or Venezuela because they are for all intent irrelevant from a financial markets standpoint). This is a scary development because of what it could prompt..
well I fear we are about to find out starting in a few hours. I am looking at my Reuters terminal and it’s going to be horrificAh, but it has happened before. Russian soldiers weren't getting paid back around 1998. Pensions for widows of dead soldiers were still being paid, so some tragically committed suicide so their wives and children would not starve. This was even before Russian Financial Crisis of August 1998. Around 1992, it was incredibly dire, with inflation topping 2000%.
You night want to check out recent posts by @Ananda here.
It was heartbreaking when I spent time there in the late 1990s, and I heard many stories of how much worse it had been. The scenario you describe is outlined here:well I fear we are about to find out starting in a few hours. I am looking at my Reuters terminal and it’s going to be horrific
I get the impression from mainstream news sources that the general population of Germany (and possibly a lot of countries) are more willing to take some pain than the government. If the government go along with it and the messaging is right, I don't think they'll be punished for it in elections.German perhaps can afford that. How about the smaller economy ? Whose going to subsidise their bill ?
Like I said it is two way traffics. Let's see whose prepared more.
The problem with public sentiments it is a fleeting issue. Some Politicians call public sentiment is work like a wind. Understandable since we are talking human emotion in here.the impression from mainstream news sources that the general population of Germany (and possibly a lot of countries) are more willing to take some pain than the government
I believe the talks fell through.So the talks ended up being done in Belarus anyway? I thought Zalensky prefer a more neutral ground?
It's to send a clear message to the effect that Russia is displeased; to remind others that they can only go so far and as Feanor said may be intended at news that the West may notch things up.To me Russia putting his nuclear deterrent forces on full alert is pretty much an admission of failure. In fact I am still trying to work out exactly what the objectives are.
From the Map seems not only Russian want to secure East and South. However want to secure Dnieper. Perhaps they want to make sure Ukraine can not use Dnieper access as bargaining on Crimea again
It's been widely reported in Western media Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet at the border for "talks without preconditions." I assumed when I read it that this would be "see, we tried for peace, but ... " bit of PR theater. This fell through?I believe the talks fell through.
East and South were not the limit as soon as we saw Russian troops moving through Chernigov and on Kiev. I suspect regime change may be on the table. Possibly a truncated Ukraine including Kiev, but ending somewhere between Zhitomyr and L'vov, that's neutral and demilitarized, with independent (militarized and pro-Russian) LDNR.From the Map seems not only Russian want to secure East and South. However want to secure Dnieper. Perhaps they want to make sure Ukraine can not use Dnieper access as bargaining on Crimea again
From what I understand, yes. There might not be "preconditions" but it's almost guaranteed that what Russia wants amounts to a Ukrainian surrender.It's been widely reported in Western media Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet at the border for "talks without preconditions." I assumed when I read it that this would be "see, we tried for peace, but ... " bit of PR theater. This fell through?
NATO nukes in Ukraine is Russian disinformation, and should not be taken seriously. Ukraine was very far from becoming a NATO member in the first place, at least until Putin invaded.My guess is this is Putin saying to US/NATO, "You don't like the idea of Luk's nukes? You think maybe Belarus could be handy crazy cat's paw for Russia, like China's North Korea? Might get out of control? See why I don't like the idea of NATO nukes in Ukraine? So, you wanna talk? No?" (Frankly, I don't like the idea of potentially unstable and unpredictable brand new countries *anywhere* having them, and that includes both Belarus and Ukraine.)