The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

braddmlewis

New Member
There's one other possibility. They know something we don't about the possibility of direct western involvement.
They do - everyone here is fixated on hard weapons. The really devastating weapon was freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. I don’t think people understand what is going to happen to the ruble and the Russian stock market…
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
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They do - everyone here is fixated on hard weapons. The really devastating weapon was freezing the assets of the Russian Central Bank. I don’t think people understand what is going to happen to the ruble and the Russian stock market…
I sure don't. I know it's going to be bad, but honestly my knowledge of economics is too limited to say what it will look like. If you have some insight on the subject, please feel free to share.
 

braddmlewis

New Member
I sure don't. I know it's going to be bad, but honestly my knowledge of economics is too limited to say what it will look like. If you have some insight on the subject, please feel free to share.
Effectively economics works at its core around supply and demand. One of the things that impacts demand here is risk - banks and investors do not want to be a party to a transaction that has risk - reputational, financial or any other kind so what will happen is investors sell off Russian ruble and stocks which push the price down because there are more sellers than buyers, this is where the Russian central bank would normally intervene and buy up those rubles and stocks, now that the central bank cannot do that because their assets are frozen the risk grows exponentially and causes a sell off. As we sit here now it is not impossible the ruble could be over 200 to the US dollar today and the futures for the Russian stock market are down 50% pre opening. Sberbank Europe is likely going to fold today and the parent bank (the Russian one) will not survive a run without having access to central bank funds so you could have banks in Russia going out of business in very short order. When that happens and 145 million people can’t buy food or get money from the bank much less soldiers don’t get paid you have an absolute plunge into the unknown. This has never ever happened before (don’t quote Iran or Venezuela because they are for all intent irrelevant from a financial markets standpoint). This is a scary development because of what it could prompt..
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Effectively economics works at its core around supply and demand. One of the things that impacts demand here is risk - banks and investors do not want to be a party to a transaction that has risk - reputational, financial or any other kind so what will happen is investors sell off Russian ruble and stocks which push the price down because there are more sellers than buyers, this is where the Russian central bank would normally intervene and buy up those rubles and stocks, now that the central bank cannot do that because their assets are frozen the risk grows exponentially and causes a sell off. As we sit here now it is not impossible the ruble could be over 200 to the US dollar today and the futures for the Russian stock market are down 50% pre opening. Sberbank Europe is likely going to fold today and the parent bank (the Russian one) will not survive a run without having access to central bank funds so you could have banks in Russia going out of business in very short order. When that happens and 145 million people can’t buy food or get money from the bank much less soldiers don’t get paid you have an absolute plunge into the unknown. This has never ever happened before (don’t quote Iran or Venezuela because they are for all intent irrelevant from a financial markets standpoint). This is a scary development because of what it could prompt..
Ah, but it has happened before. Russian soldiers weren't getting paid back around 1998. Pensions for widows of dead soldiers were still being paid, so some tragically committed suicide so their wives and children would not starve. This was even before Russian Financial Crisis of August 1998. Around 1992, it was incredibly dire, with inflation topping 2000%.

You night want to check out recent posts by @Ananda here.
 

braddmlewis

New Member
Ah, but it has happened before. Russian soldiers weren't getting paid back around 1998. Pensions for widows of dead soldiers were still being paid, so some tragically committed suicide so their wives and children would not starve. This was even before Russian Financial Crisis of August 1998. Around 1992, it was incredibly dire, with inflation topping 2000%.

You night want to check out recent posts by @Ananda here.
well I fear we are about to find out starting in a few hours. I am looking at my Reuters terminal and it’s going to be horrific
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
well I fear we are about to find out starting in a few hours. I am looking at my Reuters terminal and it’s going to be horrific
It was heartbreaking when I spent time there in the late 1990s, and I heard many stories of how much worse it had been. The scenario you describe is outlined here:
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Rubel or Ruble will be trash by market today, there will be big sell out today on Russian Capital market. I have no doubt about that.

However the question for consumers is how far domestication of consumption goods level already done on Russian Economy. Putin on interview with International Journalist already claim since 2014 embargoes, Russian Products has completely become subsitute to Import for average consumers.

Russian administration seems already factor in the effect of full scale economic embargoes from West. The video that @webmaster put on other thread and also @Capt. Ironpants put in this thread, shown it can be hard adjustment for couple of years for Russian economy.

However Russian Central Banks also sit on very large Gold reserve. Thus it seems they are already prepared multiple scenarios on how the effect including seizures of some of their reserves in Western market. I do suspect they already shift some of their overseas reserves toward market that not control by west (most probable either Shanghai or Hong Kong).

So lets see if Putin overestimate Russian resiliances or West overestimate them selves and underestimate Russia. One thing is clear Russian market will be hard hit, and it will take some time for Russian economy to recover.

However will it be collapse as some in West hope for ? Like the discusion on that video, I have doubt in that. The discusion in video reflects what I got from my financial colleaugues that specialise in Russian and Near Russian market.

Some politicians in the west tend to forget, how fast Russian natural resources hold are. Just like in the video discusion, I also wonder if Euro zone prepare to pay the huge increase they are going to pay for switching the energy supply from Russia.


German perhaps can afford that. How about the smaller economy ? Whose going to subsidise their bill ?

Like I said it is two way traffics. Let's see whose prepared more.
 

phreeky

Active Member
German perhaps can afford that. How about the smaller economy ? Whose going to subsidise their bill ?

Like I said it is two way traffics. Let's see whose prepared more.
I get the impression from mainstream news sources that the general population of Germany (and possibly a lot of countries) are more willing to take some pain than the government. If the government go along with it and the messaging is right, I don't think they'll be punished for it in elections.

Causes like this unites people.

Of course that's easy for me to say as somebody on the opposite side of the world without a need for gas for heating, so I might be reading the mood incorrectly.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
the impression from mainstream news sources that the general population of Germany (and possibly a lot of countries) are more willing to take some pain than the government
The problem with public sentiments it is a fleeting issue. Some Politicians call public sentiment is work like a wind. Understandable since we are talking human emotion in here.

However like I post, I do believe German will be more ready, so does the other affluent economy in Euro zone. However my question will be more to those smaller less affluent economies in the East Euro. Whose going to pay their rising bill ? Will the more affluent public in the West Euro zone willing to take up the bill, at the same time they are also has to pay rising bills on their own ?

It will also happen in Russia, will Putin can still control rising discontent from Public due to rising bills cause by embargoes ?

Time will tell whose going to cave in first or whose going to be more resiliances. Public sentiments can be fleeting when it alrready hit their own pockets.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Unconfirmed reports of possible negotiations floating around in Belarus.


Live Russian Radio Chatter: 7933.00 KhZ - Frequency Filter 2.70 KhZ

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901

For those interested: A Discord server has been set up for both Ukrainian and Russian speaking translators. Continuous live translations of what is being said. Tons of intense chatter has been archived(Including from firefights). From the recent chatter(From a group fighting West of Kiev) they've been very focused on setting up fuel stations and making sure fuel trucks are properly escorted. Latest is they're about to storm Makariv from both the east and west. There have been a few instances of Ukrainians hijacking the coms with pig squeal noises on loop. Some of the chatter indicates a clear lack of coordination(Primarily between ground units), some of it indicated some good connection between CAS and ground units.

Join the Ukrainian Radio Watchers Discord Server!
 

Arji

Active Member
So the talks ended up being done in Belarus anyway? I thought Zalensky prefer a more neutral ground?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
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Update. It's been quiet so far so this update mostly has details, no major movements. Another map, it looks reasonably correct.


Kiev.

Air defenses firing in Kiev.


Around Kiev.

A munitions dump in Cherkasy was hit by a Russian missile strike, allegedly Iskander.


Satellite imagery of the An-225 parked outside at Gostomel' on Feb 24th.


The hangar where the An-225 was allegedly located, damaged.

A Russian column 5kms outside of Kiev.


A Russian troop column in Borodyanka.


The North.

Russian jets coming out of Belarus to Ukraine.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Shelling continues in Kharkov.


There are reports of continuing fighting on the south-western outskirts of Kharkov.


A Russian Tunguska abandoned near Kharkov.


Destroyed/abandoned vehicles near Sumy. There's two BTR-80s, unclear whose. The paintjob looks Russian, but I don't see gratuitous tactical markings, An Uragan transporter-reloader, a burning Osa SAM, a destroyed T-90A. Note they're not all in same spot so it's possible there's a mix of what's whose.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovks.

A car was shot up in Dnepropetrovsk, apparently for driving around during an air raid.


In Dnepropetrovsk, soldiers shot up a car full of territorial defense fighters.


The Ukrainian flag is being lowered in Melitopol'.


The West.

The mayor of Zhitomyr says their biggest problem is looters.


Kherson-Nikoalev.

An allegedly Ukrainian fuel truck destroyed near Kherson.


A looter in Nikolaev caught by locals.


LDNR Front.

Rebel forces near Bugas. Russian helos are supporting.


DNR forces.


Abandoned Ukrainian positions.


A rebel fighter arrives home after 8 years, he's from Stanitsa Luganskaya.


The DNR is halting their mobilization, says they have enough for now.


Mariupol'.

Allegedly a Ukrainian column moving around town and firing. Unclear what the circumstances are.


Ukrainian vehicles parked next to a kindergarten.


There is an alleged report from Mariupol' that fighters wearing Right Sector/Azov insignia entered a church, beat the priest, and robbed the church.


Berdyansk is apparently under full Russian control.


Misc.

Assorted footage of Bayraktars destroying Russian targets. There have been some claims that some of the footage isn't from Ukraine.


There are reports that two civilian ships approached Zmeiniy island and were then detained by Russian warships and sent to Crimea.


A Russian column doing a neat u-turn somewhere in Ukraine, location unknown.


Allegedly foreign volunteers arriving in Ukraine.


Allegedly, the 2nd btln of the 61st Egerskaya Bde surrendered. Confirmation is lacking, though there's some nice footage of small arms taken trophies.


NATO/EU

It looks like Poland handed over a large stockpile of R-73 and R-27 AAMs to Ukraine.


There are reports that western weapons will arrive in L'vov and will then use regular trucks to distribute around the country.


German, French, and Spanish transports landing at Polish Jeshuev, near Ukraine, allegedly with cargo for Ukraine.

 

STURM

Well-Known Member
To me Russia putting his nuclear deterrent forces on full alert is pretty much an admission of failure. In fact I am still trying to work out exactly what the objectives are.
It's to send a clear message to the effect that Russia is displeased; to remind others that they can only go so far and as Feanor said may be intended at news that the West may notch things up.

 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
I believe the talks fell through.
It's been widely reported in Western media Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet at the border for "talks without preconditions." I assumed when I read it that this would be "see, we tried for peace, but ... " bit of PR theater. This fell through?

In other news, the referendum in Belarus (renouncing non-nuclear status):


My guess is this is Putin saying to US/NATO, "You don't like the idea of Luk's nukes? You think maybe Belarus could be handy crazy cat's paw for Russia, like China's North Korea? Might get out of control? See why I don't like the idea of NATO nukes in Ukraine? So, you wanna talk? No?" (Frankly, I don't like the idea of potentially unstable and unpredictable brand new countries *anywhere* having them, and that includes both Belarus and Ukraine.)
 

Feanor

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From the Map seems not only Russian want to secure East and South. However want to secure Dnieper. Perhaps they want to make sure Ukraine can not use Dnieper access as bargaining on Crimea again
East and South were not the limit as soon as we saw Russian troops moving through Chernigov and on Kiev. I suspect regime change may be on the table. Possibly a truncated Ukraine including Kiev, but ending somewhere between Zhitomyr and L'vov, that's neutral and demilitarized, with independent (militarized and pro-Russian) LDNR.

It's been widely reported in Western media Ukrainian and Russian delegations to meet at the border for "talks without preconditions." I assumed when I read it that this would be "see, we tried for peace, but ... " bit of PR theater. This fell through?
From what I understand, yes. There might not be "preconditions" but it's almost guaranteed that what Russia wants amounts to a Ukrainian surrender.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
My guess is this is Putin saying to US/NATO, "You don't like the idea of Luk's nukes? You think maybe Belarus could be handy crazy cat's paw for Russia, like China's North Korea? Might get out of control? See why I don't like the idea of NATO nukes in Ukraine? So, you wanna talk? No?" (Frankly, I don't like the idea of potentially unstable and unpredictable brand new countries *anywhere* having them, and that includes both Belarus and Ukraine.)
NATO nukes in Ukraine is Russian disinformation, and should not be taken seriously. Ukraine was very far from becoming a NATO member in the first place, at least until Putin invaded.

Putin is becoming desperate, things are not going according to plan. He has fundamentally changed German defense policy in a few days, he has united NATO, he has united EU, and he has brought Sweden and Finland even closer to NATO than before.

EU, the UK, the US, Canada, and several other countries are going after the oligarchs in a way that was unthinkable just a few days ago. They are not used to feeling any kind of pain. They could fly their private jets to Miami, London, or Nice. Now that's not possible anymore, their fortunes abroad are being frozen, and start to realize that the "deal" they had with Putin is not looking so attractive anymore.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Tons of updates flooding in now, big advances south. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant apparently under full Russian control.


Update from the Russian MoD.

Брифинг официального представителя Минобороны.. | Минобороны России | VK

Possible new map closer to the actual ground situation, but Radio chatter indicates they've advanced farther west and south of western Kiev than what is shown. Conflicting reports of how far the advance is from Chernihiv. Apparently Mariupol is effectively surrounded and they're holding off advance due to "negotiations."



More reports coming in of possible surrenders of entire Ukrainian formations.


Quite a few more unsubstantiated reports, but it's looking to be the best day so far operationally for the Russians. It looks like they've been doing a lot of night operations and once dawn breaks we see.
 
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