Nick underscore
Member
Apparently near Dnipropetrovsk, can anyone confirm its a Mi-8T (MSB)? I wonder if this is training, with the ATO not far off or just screwing around.
Ukrainian Mi-8 training
Ukrainian Mi-8 training
Ukranian Crisis
- Thread starter KiwiRob
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Better late then never, we finally have solid proof of T-90A tanks from the 136th Motor-Rifles being used in Ukraine. Whether they saw combat or not is unclear, though some of the commentators are claiming that they know of cases of Ukrainian ATGMs not firing because of Shtora being used.
Andrei-bt - Т-90Рна территории Украины
sled_vzayt - Т-90 на онбаÑÑе
Andrei-bt - Т-90Рна территории Украины
sled_vzayt - Т-90 на онбаÑÑе
gazzzwp
Member
Does this mean that the claims of the US and the West have now been shown to be completely true? Russia finally exposed!
I doubt the Russian's are ready to admit direct military involvement and why would they?
Curious if anyone can provide TO&E details on the Ukraine Airmobile formations. Specifically the 95th Airmobile brigade has the 13th Airmobile Battallion (1 of 3 battalions in the brigade) which has battallion level assets allegedly consisting of air-defense, mortar and anti-tank missile platoons and three companies of infantry (how are these numbered?)
For the 12th Airmobile battalion of the 95th the companies are 4th, 5th and 6th but I can't find any info if the 13th is the 7th, 8th and 9th companies.
I know this is specific information I was just curious if anyone on here had info or sources to direct me to.
For my part it does look like based on the probing attacks and increase in artillery the next Russian / Pro-Russian Seperatist push will be to control highway H20 wich connects Donetsk and Mariupol.
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine SITREP July 15.pdf
Cheers
:duel
Curious if anyone can provide TO&E details on the Ukraine Airmobile formations. Specifically the 95th Airmobile brigade has the 13th Airmobile Battallion (1 of 3 battalions in the brigade) which has battallion level assets allegedly consisting of air-defense, mortar and anti-tank missile platoons and three companies of infantry (how are these numbered?)
For the 12th Airmobile battalion of the 95th the companies are 4th, 5th and 6th but I can't find any info if the 13th is the 7th, 8th and 9th companies.
I know this is specific information I was just curious if anyone on here had info or sources to direct me to.
For my part it does look like based on the probing attacks and increase in artillery the next Russian / Pro-Russian Seperatist push will be to control highway H20 wich connects Donetsk and Mariupol.
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine SITREP July 15.pdf
Cheers
:duel
Aside from a whole lot of pathos, what are you trying to say? We knew there were regular Russian army units inside Ukraine since last august. Russia has refused to admit it. What changes with a few new photos?
The rebels are still weak and badly organized. The attack on Marinovka proved that. I strongly suspect that they're simply not capable of a major offensive, and some commentators from inside the rebel ranks suggested the same thing. Detailed descriptions of problems organizing comms, or trying to keep armored vehicles running, show the rebels still unable to function as a real standing fighting force.
In other words, it would be unlikely that they could attack successfully without help from the Russian army.
Nick underscore
Member
Another big handover of refurbished & US donated Humvees to the Ukrainian Army yesterday in the Kharkiv region and apparently heading for the ATO. 170 vehicles in all.
Quite a mixed bag and no type in huge quantities (BTR-3, BMP-2, T-64BM, 2S1, MT-12 Rapira & BM20 GRAD.. Even a few 9K33 Osa). Could be wrong on some types..
Are they recoiless rifles or HMG's, on the back of some Humvees (@1.35)?
[nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQGjH5oSRrw[/nomedia]
Quite a mixed bag and no type in huge quantities (BTR-3, BMP-2, T-64BM, 2S1, MT-12 Rapira & BM20 GRAD.. Even a few 9K33 Osa). Could be wrong on some types..
Are they recoiless rifles or HMG's, on the back of some Humvees (@1.35)?
[nomedia]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQGjH5oSRrw[/nomedia]
They're DShK HMGs. Actually they've had some problems with the Humvees recently. They've discovered that the vehicles are old and in bad condition. On some of them the tires are practically falling apart.
I've also found some interesting material that suggests that they don't actually produce BTR-3s from scratch, but instead remanufacture BTR-80 hulls. Which explains the relative scarcity of the type, and lack of mass production, despite the fact that they're at war. It also explains the BTR-80 shortage, which has led to not only mass re-activation of BTR-70s, but also reactivation of BTR-60s. And even that hasn't been anywhere near enough to provide armored transport for even regular army units (never-mind volunteer-btlns). This handover for example includes something like 4 BTR-3s, despite claims of production being at 20 vehicles per month.
Nick underscore
Member
Good news in the east of Ukraine as Hvy weapons are being pulled back from the front. Tanks, artillery, and mortars up to 120mm, have been confirmed as moving back 15km's from the line of contact. DNR confirmed the withdrawal should be completed by the 21st Oct.
The DNR has held off on the proposed regional elections (last Sunday) in a sign that more regional autonomy will be forthcoming from the Kiev Govt.
Ukriane also upgraded by S&P to B-
The DNR has held off on the proposed regional elections (last Sunday) in a sign that more regional autonomy will be forthcoming from the Kiev Govt.
Ukriane also upgraded by S&P to B-
Yes, as far as I can tell the war is over. Though the Ukrainian government is still playing games with their attempts at blockading Crimea with "non-state actors". But then again with the rapid construction of the bridge, and the powerplants inside Crimea, that's only a matter of time. It's be interesting to watch what they do this winter vis-a-vis gas.
Possibly, never underestimate peoples stupidity. Politically, sanctions wise, a lot will depend on how the White House and the US Congress react. The Republicans in Congress are a bit of a divisive bunch and can't even agree amongst themselves about some things. Hopefully the blood letting in the Ukraine has ended though.
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Distanstar
New Member
No because the sanctions were for the annexing of crimea.
Russian isnt giving it back anytime soon.
You think EU sanctions depend on US Congress' reaction? That's a horrifying thought.
There are actually two sets of sanctions. One is for Crimea, and one is for the war in Ukraine. Some or possibly even all of the sanctions for the war in Ukraine may be dropped (though I think some is more likely then all) while sanctions for the annexation for Crimea will remain for some time. Though honestly, if Crimea is still part of Russia 50 years down the line, the west may simply have to accept it as reality.
GermanHerman
Active Member
I think at this point it would be silly to deny the influence of US politics on EU foreign politics. If it "depends" on the US Congress' reaction is another story but in general there should be a consens that a lot of european states feel a dependency on NATO when it comes to deterence of the Russian Federation and propably fear that this effect will be weakend if they go astray in their politic towards Russia.
A somewhat united aproach in the foreign politics towards russia makes a better impression about the commitment and willingness of the States to cooperate and since the US is undoubtly the most important NATO member they sure have a lot of influence in the process.
I think you are not right entirely. Politics is much more about impression, appearance and political gain than anything else.
The prospect of the sanctions lift is determined only by potential political gain acquired by the politicians who support it. At this stage I see none. The only thing certain is that those who would make such a move, would be immediately accused of having capitulated before Putin by their own constituents.
Considering current EU political landscape, I think the people who are opposing a deal with Putin are to a most extent very people who support the parties in power.
I just don't see it worth a political risk.
One should not disregard the influence of corporate capital, which was against the sanctions from the start, but it did not manage to prevent the sanctions in the first place, let alone force the EU politicians to change their mind afterwards... Outside that it seems to me the only ones who are truly dissatisfied are the farmers, but they are just a minority and no one gives a sh*** for them.
GermanHerman
Active Member
Although you are right about the opportunistic nature of politics I think your conclusions is flawed.
Since the hights of this conflict a lot of time has passed and the medias interest has shifted to other, more pressing topics. In Germany there has hardly been any mentioning of the Ukrainien situation over the last year and even back then most people were not very alarmed.
Since then there was a new flare up of the Greece Financial Crisis which was heavily covered by media and since some time we now have a refugee crisis that overshadows everything else, the people dont care for the east anymore and dont see the russian deployment in syria as a problem. On the contrary, people are so annoyed by the refugee influx that they welcome a decisive move towards a solution of the situation in syria.
This in combination with the damage that the sanction have done to our economy are making it very possible and some what easy for our government to get away with lifting the sanctions. It propably wouldnt even make headlines anymore.
Since the hights of this conflict a lot of time has passed and the medias interest has shifted to other, more pressing topics. In Germany there has hardly been any mentioning of the Ukrainien situation over the last year and even back then most people were not very alarmed.
Since then there was a new flare up of the Greece Financial Crisis which was heavily covered by media and since some time we now have a refugee crisis that overshadows everything else, the people dont care for the east anymore and dont see the russian deployment in syria as a problem. On the contrary, people are so annoyed by the refugee influx that they welcome a decisive move towards a solution of the situation in syria.
This in combination with the damage that the sanction have done to our economy are making it very possible and some what easy for our government to get away with lifting the sanctions. It propably wouldnt even make headlines anymore.
I think the rest of the World can makes there own minds up without having the US hold there hands and tell them what to do.
There's plenty of big companies, especially German with massive investments in Russia, they want to continue making money, you can bet on it that Merkel is under a lot of pressure to end them. American on the other had doesn't have the same scale of investment as Europe does in Russia. A prime example is the Norwegian fishing industry it has lost billions due to sanctions.
The Mistral deal suggests that corporations do wield influnce and that governments have to be almost forced to break corporate agreements. The deal was finally cancelled almost a year after annexation of Crimea. And the justification was more to do with Minsk I accord violations in Donbass. If governments were to have it as easy as you claim, then Mistrals would be debarred from sale soon after confirmation of the identity of the little green men. It was involvement in the East of the Ukraine and massive international pressure that finally sunk the deal.
As far as I understand it, it's the parties in opposition who don't like the sanctions. Marie Le Pen in France is the most poignant example.
Small scale fighting has resumed around various hot spots, Peski, Donetsk Airport, Avdeevka, and others. So far no heavy weapons used, only small arms, and occasional mortar shellings. This is while the peace negotiations are effectively stalled, even with Kerry stating that the republics ought to get special status (which is written into Minsk-2). There are reports of heavy equipment moving towards the front from the Ukrainian side, and while I don't have concrete info, there's a good chance that the rebels are doing the same.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2459723.html
In the mean time Russia is planning to distribute Russian passports to the population of the two breakaway provinces. They plan to start as early as this year.
Т-72Б и БМП-2 перед отправкой в Сирию - Andrei-bt
This conflict looks like it will remain for the long haul. It's just too profitable to certain people.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2459723.html
In the mean time Russia is planning to distribute Russian passports to the population of the two breakaway provinces. They plan to start as early as this year.
Т-72Б и БМП-2 перед отправкой в Сирию - Andrei-bt
This conflict looks like it will remain for the long haul. It's just too profitable to certain people.
Handelsblatt is reporting that EU leaders are planning to extend sanctions on Russia, with a decision to take place at a summit on 18 December.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/breaking/sources-e-u-leaders-may-extend-russia-sanctions-by-6-months
From other reports I'd read I had the impression that there are quite a few parties within the EU that would like to see the sanctions dropped, be interesting to see what pressure gets brought to bear by the various interests. Certainly the US has no desire to take the foot off just yet.
In other news, US military advisors will begin training of 5 mechanised infantry battalions and one special operations battalion in Lviv on Nov 23, following the format of the 'Fearless Guardian 2015' joint military exercises held earlier this year, according to Stratfor.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/breaking/sources-e-u-leaders-may-extend-russia-sanctions-by-6-months
From other reports I'd read I had the impression that there are quite a few parties within the EU that would like to see the sanctions dropped, be interesting to see what pressure gets brought to bear by the various interests. Certainly the US has no desire to take the foot off just yet.
In other news, US military advisors will begin training of 5 mechanised infantry battalions and one special operations battalion in Lviv on Nov 23, following the format of the 'Fearless Guardian 2015' joint military exercises held earlier this year, according to Stratfor.
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