Ukranian Crisis

[shogun]

Looks like western media is observing a buildup of Russian forces in the Rostov region - forces stripped of insignia and identifying information. Typical of the Russian forces used in Jun/August of 2014 and Jan through April of this year.

Russia preparing an offensive, flexing or media hype?

Russia is massing troops and hundreds of pieces of heavy military equipment, such as tanks and artillery, along Ukraine's border. That's according to Reuters reporter Maria Tsetkova, who saw and took photos of the deployments on Wednesday. The same day, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a think tank audience in Washington that Russia had deployed 250 aircraft and 700 pieces of heavy military equipment to the Ukrainian border as part of a military exercise.

Is this the start of another Russian invasion of Ukraine? Disturbingly, Tsetkova reports that "Many of the vehicles have number plates and identifying marks removed while many of the servicemen had taken insignia off their fatigues."

vox.com/2015/5/28/8676549/russia-invade-ukraine

 

[Nick underscore]

Timing coincidental? Can't help think this is related to the next push in the East of Ukraine

Putin declares all Russian military deaths state secrets - Guardian

I noticed the RF has passed laws to ban all international NGO's that are deemed 'undesirable'

 

[Feanor]

Timing coincidental? Can't help think this is related to the next push in the East of Ukraine

Putin declares all Russian military deaths state secrets - Guardian

I noticed the RF has passed laws to ban all international NGO's that are deemed 'undesirable'

The article is dead wrong. The law refers to Special Operations in peacetime only.

Here's the real thing, in Russian.

http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201505280001?index=0&rangeSize=1

Note SpN GRU casualties were often treated as secrets in war time even before this, so no special provision is necessary to keep them secret outside of peacetime.

According to militaryfirepower.wordpress.com Russia has 10,255 active T-72s.

Sounds like an overblown number, probably includes storage tanks as well.

Count the number of Motor-Rifle Bdes and multiply by 41, then count the number of tank bdes and multiply by 94. Maybe add another 30% for training units and UBG tanks, and you'll have a fairly accurate estimate.

 

[Waylander]

It's not like the Kremlin decides what a special operation is and what isn't...

 

[alexkvaskov]

Count the number of Motor-Rifle Bdes and multiply by 41, then count the number of tank bdes and multiply by 94. Maybe add another 30% for training units and UBG tanks, and you'll have a fairly accurate estimate.

Motor-rifles have a single organic tank battalion, is that right? I seem to recall Russian army armored battalions to have 30-33 tanks; did this change or am I forgetting something?

 

[Nick underscore]

Motor-rifles have a single organic tank battalion, is that right? I seem to recall Russian army armored battalions to have 30-33 tanks; did this change or am I forgetting something?

This OPFOR is a little old (1997) and I use as a guide, but APC/ IFV was 51 tanks for seperate Mech/ Mot Bgdes and 31 tanks for divisional attached Bgdes. See 2-14 & 2-17. I assume (maybe wrongly) these were reasonably accurate at the time.

Divisional attached Tank Bgdes are stated as 94 tanks. See 2-57

OPFOR Soviet/Russian Units

 

[Feanor]

Motor-rifles have a single organic tank battalion, is that right? I seem to recall Russian army armored battalions to have 30-33 tanks; did this change or am I forgetting something?

They have an organic tank btln of 41 tanks. 4 companies of 10 and one btln commanders vehicle.

Tank units have tank btlns of 31 tanks. 3 companies.

This OPFOR is a little old (1997) and I use as a guide, but APC/ IFV was 51 tanks for seperate Mech/ Mot Bgdes and 31 tanks for divisional attached Bgdes. See 2-14 & 2-17. I assume (maybe wrongly) these were reasonably accurate at the time.

Divisional attached Tank Bgdes are stated as 94 tanks. See 2-57

OPFOR Soviet/Russian Units

Way too old. They tossed it all up, including the makeup of a lot of btlns, during the most recent reform.

It's not like the Kremlin decides what a special operation is and what isn't...

There's actually a particular list of what counts and doesn't count as special operations. So from a legalistic standpoint, there's little room to maneuver. Now upper leadership can certainly disregard the law. But that's a separate discussion. They could always do that. This law doesn't do much for them in that department.

 

[quynn75]

There´s nothing hybrid in this war..

I don´t think Ukrainians are happier with Ukraine than with Russia (economically they were much better with Russia) but politically Putin is really just a big disaster! For anyone.. I don´t have any problem with Ukraine being Russian, I have a problem with Putin being expansive and aggressive.

 

[the concerned]

With all the tensions between the west and the kremlin and the rival exercises these large scale ones organised by Russia must be costing them a fortune. Surely these exercises on this scale can't be sustainable.

 

[shogun]

With all the tensions between the west and the kremlin and the rival exercises these large scale ones organised by Russia must be costing them a fortune. Surely these exercises on this scale can't be sustainable.

I was thinking the same thing, but the latest one is 12,000 men and 250 aircraft probably not nearly as much as the deployments and occupation of east Ukraine, Crimea, Ossetia et. al. and Moldova are costing. These drills, while timed well for muscle flexing purposes are probably a screen for sending more equipment into Ukraine and/or keeping those units rotating in combat ready.

The Nemtsov report needs to be viewed skeptically but:

The financial burden of Russia's annexation of Crimea a year ago, and its support for separatist rebels in Ukraine's east is also staggering, according to economists' estimates cited in the report.

Russia has spent 53 billion rubles from state coffers in the 10 months of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, according to estimates by the head of macroeconomic studies at the esteemed Higher School of Economics, Sergei Aleksashenko, one of the co-authors of the report, according to RBC.

The costs included 21 billion rubles ($1 billion) to operate a force of 6,000 Russian “volunteer” soldiers in Ukraine, another 25 billion rubles to support 30,000 local insurgents, and 7 billion rubles for the maintenance and repairs of military machines, Aleksashenko said, RBC reported.

Since July 2014, Russia has also spent 80 billion rubles to support “refugees” from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, according to Aleksashenko's estimates, the report said.

As for the annexation of Crimea, ordinary Russians paid for it with 2.75 trillion rubles in lost wages and savings — an estimate based primarily on price hikes that followed Western sanctions against Moscow, according to the report.

.themoscowtimes.com/mobile/news/article/nemtsov-report-details-human-and-financial-costs-of-war-in-ukraine/520571.html

 

[Feanor]

With all the tensions between the west and the kremlin and the rival exercises these large scale ones organised by Russia must be costing them a fortune. Surely these exercises on this scale can't be sustainable.

Well, no. The current level of training is quite sustainable within the current defense budget. Now whether planned defense spending is sustainable is another question. The ex-finance minister Kudrin thinks not. But then there's a reason he's ex. Anyways, unless Russia's economy takes a nosedive, I don't see defense spending taking a major cut. Which means large scale training exercises will remain a staple of Russian military practice.

 

[alexkvaskov]

They have an organic tank btln of 41 tanks. 4 companies of 10 and one btln commanders vehicle.

Tank units have tank btlns of 31 tanks. 3 companies.

I see. Is there any difference between the armored brigades and armored divisions they currently field? My impression was that the divisions are slightly larger brigades when they went back to divisions (reversing 2012 reforms). Is 4-5k an accurate headcount for the M-R brigades as currently fielded?

 

[Feanor]

I see. Is there any difference between the armored brigades and armored divisions they currently field? My impression was that the divisions are slightly larger brigades when they went back to divisions (reversing 2012 reforms). Is 4-5k an accurate headcount for the M-R brigades as currently fielded?

This really belongs in the Russian Land Forces thread, but first off it's singular. Division. They have the 4th Kantemirovskaya Tank Division. And secondly the tank division has the same Force Org as the pre-reform tank division. The tank brigade has a different table of organization entirely.

Iirc ~4400 is the TO motor-rifle brigade. However that's likely not standardized, given the wide variance in equipment. Obviously MT-12 Rapira anti-tank guns have a different manning requirement then Shturm-S ATGM carriers.

 

[shogun]

Feanor, under the 95th airmobile (on wiki for example) they list a anti-tank battalion at the brigade level and an AT company at the battalion level. I was curious if you knew unit compositions - I assumed BTR-80's, SPg-9d, various RPG and anti-tank guided missiles in 3 man firing squads.

Basically my question related to anti tank capabilities of one of the more competent units. Perhaps these resources weren't deployed initially given the early composition of rebel forces having relatively little armor.

Curious if you knew what anti tank capabilities they had or have

Thanks

 

[quynn75]

I think we should question our resources...sputniknews - ??

 

[shogun]

And so it begins again.

Reports indicate fairly large scale pro-Russian rebel advance into Marinka with significant Ukraine Army (and Civilian) casualites. Marinka is west of Donetsk. Russia media is reporting this as an armored breakthrough to hit UAF artilery located past Marinka.

Seems isolated, yet reports of shelling across the line of contact are being reported.

Summer is Donbass offensive time...

 

[Feanor]

Feanor, under the 95th airmobile (on wiki for example) they list a anti-tank battalion at the brigade level and an AT company at the battalion level. I was curious if you knew unit compositions - I assumed BTR-80's, SPg-9d, various RPG and anti-tank guided missiles in 3 man firing squads.

Basically my question related to anti tank capabilities of one of the more competent units. Perhaps these resources weren't deployed initially given the early composition of rebel forces having relatively little armor.

Curious if you knew what anti tank capabilities they had or have

Thanks

You pretty much hit it on the head. They have RPGs (7 and 2), ATGMs, SPG-9s, and T-12 Rapira anti-tank guns.

 

[Feanor]

Update Time.

Fighting has resumed with a rebel offensive towards Marinovka. This is a small town west-south-west of Donetsk. It's location is interesting. It's not a natural choice for a small local push.

Checkpoint 0 near the town has fallen, but the town itself has fought off a rebel attempt to storm the town, losing numbers wounded, and several trucks destroyed presumably by mortar fire.

The last link is the location of the town.

Note the rebels are claiming government forces have blockaded two of their checkpoints near Marinovka, which led to their push, to deblock their own positions.

Ð’ Марьинке Донецкой облаÑти идет ожеÑточенный бой
УкраинÑкие военные покидают Ñвои позиции в районе Марьинки
МиниÑÑ‚Ñ€ обороны Украины заÑвил об отражении штурма Марьинки
https://www.google.com/maps/place/M...m2!3m1!1s0x40e0a23e885a49c1:0x5db935ecafec4ca

Small fighting has also broken out in Shirokino, near Donetsk, Krasnogorovka, Schastye, Lugansk, and Berdyanskoe. Not to be confused with the city of Berdyansk, which is nowhere near the front.

Ðа ВоÑтоке Украины возобновилиÑÑŒ боевые дейÑтвиÑ

The OSCE reports heavy equipment missing from the areas they were supposed to be located. Rebel artillery appears to have moved to the front, and government tanks were sighted near the front.

Силы Ð¾Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ñ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð²ÐµÐ´ÐµÐ½Ñ‹ в боевую готовноÑÑ‚ÑŒ

Warning extremely graphic images.

A Right Sector fighter has published photos of a rebel prisoner whose index fingers they chopped off so that he wouldn't be able to fire a weapon. There are claims that this is not the first time.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1673245.html

Rebel tank forces.

Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата - С мира по траку - голому танк...

Meanwhile Ukraine is negotiating for the purchase of 300 ex-German Marder IFVs through a Bolgarian intermediary.

Берлога Бронемедведа - "СакÑов" заменÑÑ‚ "Куницы"?
bmpd - Украина пытаетÑÑ ÐºÑƒÐ¿Ð¸Ñ‚ÑŒ 300 демилитаризованных ÑпиÑанных БМП Marder через болгарÑкого поÑредника

US military instructors in Ukraine. And their trucks.

codename_it: ÐмериканÑкие инÑтрукторы ВСУ.
codename_it: ÐмериканÑкие Ошкоши в ЛьвовÑкой облаÑти.

European sources say that the numbers of Ukrainian refugees applying for asylum in Europe is growing rapidly. Last year it was 660 thousand.

*ÂÇÃËßÄ / ÅÑ çàÿâèë î ðåçêîì ðîñòå ÷èñëà óêðàèíöåâ, æåëàþùèõ ïåðåñåëèòüñÿ â Åâðîïó

Ukrainian sources claim there are large hidden Russian positions of tank and artillery near the border, in Crimea.

УкраинÑкие пограничники обнаружили замаÑкированные роÑÑийÑкие танки вблизи границы

Ukrainian sources report that during recent training, there were massive breakdowns of recently repaired and upgraded vehicles. High level advisers are preparing a plan to have the future drivers of the vehicles directly participate in the acceptance procedures.

УкраинÑÐºÐ°Ñ Ð±Ñ€Ð¾Ð½ÐµÑ‚ÐµÑ…Ð½Ð¸ÐºÐ° вышла из ÑÑ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ñ Ð²Ð¾ Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ ÑƒÑ‡ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ð¹
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸ÐµÐ¼ÐºÐ° поÑредÑтвом механиков-водителей

The OSCE reports 11 unmarked T-72S tanks in a rebel camp.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - ОБСЕ зафикÑировала 11 немаркированных танков Т-72С в тренировочном лагере боевиков в Донецке

The IMF predicts a 9% GDP drop for Ukraine this year. Previously they expected a 5.5% drop.

Крз нержавеющей Ñтали - Прогноз МВФ Ð´Ð»Ñ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñ‹ ухудшен, диÑкуÑÑии будут продолжены

Ukrainian army river crossing exercises.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Отработка переправы

And Saakashvili is now the governor of Odessa.

КрыÑа из нержавеющей Ñтали - Саакашвили назначен губернатором ОдеÑÑкой облаÑти

A Ukrainian news agency ran a long article on inadequate food supply for the Ukrainian army. Volunteers are stepping in to fill much but not all of the gap.

bmpd - ПродовольÑтвенное обеÑпечение вооруженных Ñил Украины

 

[horstlederhosen]

Thanks Feanor for the update.

European sources say that the numbers of Ukrainian refugees applying for asylum in Europe is growing rapidly. Last year it was 660 thousand.

But this slight a misquote. 666000 is the amount of all asylum applications from all countries to EU area. The EOSA May 2015 report (I don't think I can link yet?) states 1984 Ukrainian applications in April (up from essentially zero before crisis).

Meanwhile, any news on how the draft and training the draftees at the ukrainian side is going?

 

[shogun]

Any idea what units are involved in the fighting around Maryinka? Probably not that clear from the Russian/Seperatist side but from the UAF?

Casualites on the UAF side are 5 dead 39 wounded over the last 24 hours.

Strategically speaking this isn't that significant - although larger than the average over the last 2 months particularly the wounded. Has the feeling of artillery/mortars type casualites.

UAF says 100 seperatists/Russians killed, that number seems very high.

Feanor do you have any pics/vids or articles of Ukraine deploying Rapira AT guns I haven't seen them in action . Thanks!