Ukranian Crisis

[John Fedup]

I didn't know that the condition of a ship mattered when it came to owership issues, nor should whether or not much of the crew deserted, those are ukranian property unless you are saying that Russia has some right to seize the ships?

The only right Russia seems to have to seize these ships is might. Their only value is scrap.

 

[nkvd]

I didn't know that the condition of a ship mattered when it came to owership issues, nor should whether or not much of the crew deserted, those are ukranian property unless you are saying that Russia has some right to seize the ships?

It makes sense for Russia to seize them now(prevent possible incidents) and then make the ships part of a possible negotiated settlement in the near future.The BSF is waiting to receive 6 Admiral Grigorovich class frigates and a similar number of conventional submarines so has clearly no need for these ships.
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...NWhBcVQ8g0HQ&sig2=_SBIzqByCiO2DSpeyS0rMQ.note the lead ship was floated out in late February

 

[alexkvaskov]

form a convenient satellite state ... and wouldn't have to worry about an unstable government in Kiev.

Yes, but who could conceivably come to power in the east? And where's the guarantee any new eastern leadership will be more stable than Kiev has been? Overall the situation is looking a lot like the Russian provisional government a hundred years ago. The interim Ukrainian administration is probably going to go the same way.

However, I like the sound of an eastern Ukraine closely allied with Russia, that would calm things down. But if western Ukraine goes rouge, how will this affect Russia's pipelines to the EU? The pipelines will be the first thing the western Ukrainians go for to get back at Russia. Perhaps a broad Russia-EU settlement to resolve the Ukraine transit issue once and for all would be a good idea, with the western part of the country joining the EU as you mentioned.

I wonder how Russia would safeguard the pipelines in the western part of the country if anything was to happen. Recall recently the standoff with troops in the east as someone tried to damage one.

 

[nkvd]

The Russian economy stands for a little bit more than 1% of our exports

By "our" i presume you mean the EU and if that the case you are so wrong it`s like 2+2 and coming up with a 100. Let me put it this way:The Russian economy at 2.5 trillion(nominal) to 3 trillion(ppp) is roughly equal to total EU exports in goods and services.So instead of being 1% it`s say a 100%?
lol
I thought Swerve might intervene on that point -he is great with factual info

 

[KiwiRob]

However, I like the sound of an eastern Ukraine closely allied with Russia, that would calm things down. But if western Ukraine goes rouge, how will this affect Russia's pipelines to the EU? The pipelines will be the first thing the western Ukrainians go for to get back at Russia. Perhaps a broad Russia-EU settlement to resolve the Ukraine transit issue once and for all would be a good idea, with the western part of the country joining the EU as you mentioned.

I wonder how Russia would safeguard the pipelines in the western part of the country if anything was to happen. Recall recently the standoff with troops in the east as someone tried to damage one.

Here's a pretty good map of the pipelines, ultimately I think Russia could bypass Ukraine if they had to.

 

[wittmanace]

I bet our Eastern European NATO allies may have another view on that, especially the Baltic countries.

I should have been more precise.i meant economically weak vs resurgent. My personal view is that the weaker Russia is economically, the more domestic problems it develops. The trend (not just Russia) is to draw attention to foreign issues etc when that is the case with domestic issues. It does also seem that an economically weakened Russia is in a position to lose less, and thus less restrained by foreign reaction.

So what I meant was that an economically weakened Russia is a bigger threat to other countries than an economically growing Russia. Do you agree with this assessment/view?

 

[SolarWind]

I didn't know that the condition of a ship mattered when it came to owership issues, nor should whether or not much of the crew deserted, those are ukranian property unless you are saying that Russia has some right to seize the ships?

Russia basically would claim that the ships were the property of Crimea due to their being based there, and since Crimea voted to become part of Russia, the ships are now Russian. There was a precedent to this earlier when these very ships, then a part of Soviet Black Sea fleet, were claimed by Ukraine for itself when it seceded from the Soviet Union, on the basis that the ships were based in Crimea which was then a part of Ukraine.

 

[SolarWind]

Yes, but who could conceivably come to power in the east? And where's the guarantee any new eastern leadership will be more stable than Kiev has been? Overall the situation is looking a lot like the Russian provisional government a hundred years ago. The interim Ukrainian administration is probably going to go the same way.

However, I like the sound of an eastern Ukraine closely allied with Russia, that would calm things down. But if western Ukraine goes rouge, how will this affect Russia's pipelines to the EU? The pipelines will be the first thing the western Ukrainians go for to get back at Russia. Perhaps a broad Russia-EU settlement to resolve the Ukraine transit issue once and for all would be a good idea, with the western part of the country joining the EU as you mentioned.

I wonder how Russia would safeguard the pipelines in the western part of the country if anything was to happen. Recall recently the standoff with troops in the east as someone tried to damage one.

If Ukraine would damage the gas pipelines, that would mean the Ukraine won't get any gas. And the EU would lose a major portion of its gas supplies. With all implications of that.

 

[Feanor]

Svoboda has controls all important ministries?
I highly doubt that apart from Defense the the ministries for agrarian and for natural resources fall into that category.
Even if one adds the Euromaidan ministries it just adds health, culture and sports.

Like I said earlier, they control the MVD (Ministry of Interior which is police, internal troops, etc.), MoD, and the SBU (the KGB successor). I.e. all the major force wielders in the state. It's a very dangerous position for the rest of the current ruling coalition.

But hey, according to the Russians the whole Ukrainian government ist just some steaming pile of fascists whereas the Russian government is peace loving and in search of harmony and friends...

Because you know, you can totally take Russia Inc. (property of GazProm) at their word.

Russia is what Russia has been for the past 15 years. A corrupt oligarchy playing on nationalism to strengthen its positions at home and abroad. It's very large, and the oligarchy is a national one, but the fundamentals don't change.

The russian economy stands for a little bit more than 1% of our exports and I fervently hope that we get independent of their energy as soon as possible and let them wither with an economy which practically has no attractive export goods apart from natural resources and weapons.

Nuclear energy, civilian aerospace, and other heavy industrial products have also been making a come back, and agriculture has been doing better. That having been said, one large economy is certainly weaker then a dozen of them.

 

[SolarWind]

I should have been more precise.i meant economically weak vs resurgent. My personal view is that the weaker Russia is economically, the more domestic problems it develops. The trend (not just Russia) is to draw attention to foreign issues etc when that is the case with domestic issues. It does also seem that an economically weakened Russia is in a position to lose less, and thus less restrained by foreign reaction.

So what I meant was that an economically weakened Russia is a bigger threat to other countries than an economically growing Russia. Do you agree with this assessment/view?

How much of a threat Russia is, I think depends on who is in power and their relationship with the West. Not as much on how the economy is doing. Although the two factors may be related.

 

[Feanor]

I didn't know that the condition of a ship mattered when it came to owership issues, nor should whether or not much of the crew deserted, those are ukranian property unless you are saying that Russia has some right to seize the ships?

Russia wants to remove the Ukrainian Navy from the equation. Ukraine is too busy with internal politics to even protest. So they get away with it. Rights is an inherently Western framework. And while Russia or Ukraine sometimes talk within it, they certainly don't act or think that way.

Technically there are plenty of property issues still left from the divisions of the USSR. They were mostly crumpled into something convenient by the governments of the time period.

Yes, but who could conceivably come to power in the east? And where's the guarantee any new eastern leadership will be more stable than Kiev has been?

The main source of instability is the inherent divide on which Ukrainian oligarchs sit. They can't pander to national interests if half of the country sees these interests one way, and the other half the other way.

Overall the situation is looking a lot like the Russian provisional government a hundred years ago. The interim Ukrainian administration is probably going to go the same way.

That would be bad. Because the radicals are fascist. So if this was February, October will bring Right Sector into office.

However, I like the sound of an eastern Ukraine closely allied with Russia, that would calm things down. But if western Ukraine goes rouge, how will this affect Russia's pipelines to the EU? The pipelines will be the first thing the western Ukrainians go for to get back at Russia.

Sure. Cut off your nose to spite your face.

But if Odessa and Kherson end up in the East, then Western Ukraine gets bypassed.

Perhaps a broad Russia-EU settlement to resolve the Ukraine transit issue once and for all would be a good idea, with the western part of the country joining the EU as you mentioned.

It would be good to have the EU buy gas at the Russian border, and negotiate with the Ukrainians themselves. Let them deal with a government that flip-flops on major decisions every 2 weeks.

 

[Feanor]

Anyways, updates.

189 Ukrainian military units are flying Russian flags. This doesn't mean they necessarily switched sides, more likely it means that they were stormed or sieged until surrender.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíîáîðîíû: ôëàãè Ðîññèè â Êðûìó ïîäíÿëè 189 ïîäðàçäåëåíèé âîîðóæåííûõ ñèë Óêðàèíû

The commander of the Belbek airbase was arrested and taken to a military prison in Sevastopol, then released.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êîìàíäèðà óêðàèíñêîé ÷àñòè â Áåëüáåêå äîñòàâèëè â âîåííóþ òþðüìó â Ñåâàñòîïîëå
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Îñâîáîæäåí ïîõèùåííûé èç ÷àñòè â Áåëüáåêå óêðàèíñêèé ïîëêîâíèê Ìàì÷óð

NATO noted Russian troop concentrations near Ukraine.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: ÍÀÒÎ çàìåòèëî âûñîêóþ êîíöåíòðàöèþ ñèë ÐÔ ó ãðàíèöû Óêðàèíû, áåñïîêîèòñÿ çà Ïðèäíåñòðîâüå

Lukashenko backed Russia on Crimea. He said that de-facto Crimea is part of Russia, what will happen de-jure remains to be seen. He's with Russia.

Colonel Cassad -

Meanwhile in Ukraine the problems are continuing. The Maydan is starting up again, with more people coming.

*

And there may be some questions about just how much money the EU is willing to give Ukraine, and under what conditions.There's always the IMF, but if the current government stops internal subsidies, people will suffer, and industries will quickly fall into the red.

*

 

[nkvd]

how much money the EU is willing to give Ukraine, and under what conditions.There's always the IMF, but if the current government stops internal subsidies, people will suffer, and industries will quickly fall into the red.

In a nutshell this is the problem any western leaning goverment in Ukraine would face ie the destruction of heavy industry which just happens to be in the east and very reliant on Russia.

 

[swerve]

.... But if western Ukraine goes rouge, ....

I don't think there's much chance of W. Ukraine going red.

Look up the difference between rouge & rogue.

 

[Waylander]

One shouldn't post numbers right from the News without veryfying them, sorry for that.

Exports to Russia are actually ca. 3.5% for Germany and 4.5% for the EU in total. I bet we could live without a large part of that. The russian economy on the other hand would shatter.

As for a prosperous Russia being a better Russia is somewhat of a doubleedged sword. While it is true that authoritarian governments tend to look for a an international cause to unite the country it is also clear that the amount of money pumped into the Russian economy due to energy exports is what brought them back on stage.

 

[swerve]

By "our" i presume you mean the EU and if that the case you are so wrong it`s like 2+2 and coming up with a 100. Let me put it this way:The Russian economy at 2.5 trillion(nominal) to 3 trillion(ppp) is roughly equal to total EU exports in goods and services.So instead of being 1% it`s say a 100%?
lol
I thought Swerve might intervene on that point -he is great with factual info

Waylander is German, IIRC. He may mean German exports. & that 1% of those exports go to Russia, which is not correct. The latest figure I've found is 3.2%, with Russia supplying 4.1% of German imports.

Since most trade of EU countries is with each other, Russia accounts for a bigger share of total EU external trade: 7.3% of exports, 11.9% of imports in 2012. That's slightly fewer exports than to Switzerland, but about twice as much in imports..

For comparison, 80% of Russia's oil & gas exports go to the EU, & 45% of all exports, & the EU supplies 34% of Russia's imports.

 

[alexkvaskov]

I don't think there's much chance of W. Ukraine going red.

Look up the difference between rouge & rogue.

Yes of course, I didn't mean red. Assumed it would be clear from the context, but anyway! Let's not nitpick

 

[swerve]

I'm afraid that confusion between rouge & rogue is one of my pet peeves.

I don't want to get into race issues, but I did want to ask something regarding terms here. All the time people refer to ethnic Russians (news, politicians on al sides, analysts, etc), are they not just referring to people who would be allowed a Russian passport under Russian law? IE familial links, linguistic or geographic? I had assumed the term ethnicity was a misnomer in this context, and that it was not a race or actual ethnicity issue? ....

AFAIK it's those who identify themselves as Russian. The statistics usually quoted come from Ukrainian & Soviet censuses, & Soviet population registration data.

Earlier figures are estimates based on various other data, e.g. the Russian 1897 census, which didn't ask about ethnicity but did ask about mother tongue & religion.

 

[Feanor]

Yes of course, I didn't mean red. Assumed it would be clear from the context, but anyway! Let's not nitpick

And here I thought you meant the make up. :

Meanwhile, Russian March in Odessa.

Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - РуÑÑкий Марш в ОдеÑÑе 23.03.14 - фото, чаÑÑ‚ÑŒ 1
Блог ÐлекÑандра Шакуна - РуÑÑкий Марш в ОдеÑÑе 23.03.14 - видео

And the Kiev government is cutting electricity to Crimea. Total electricity provided has dropped by 50%.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1502411.html

A party of BTR-4 APCs (some of them from the cancelled Kazakhstan contract) are being handed over to the National Guard.

bmpd -

Photos from Pereval'noe, where Russian VDV have taken over a Ukrainian military base. The BMP-2s were left behind by the Ukrainians, but seem to be in working order.

u_96: 36

Meanwhile a pro-Russian militia has been formed in Odessa, and one of its commanders was spotted carrying a handgun.

kaiser-w.livejournal.com/379085.html

 

[alexkvaskov]

So many militias being formed; it's kind of scary. How exactly did Svoboda get into the state organs and so pervasively?