Ukranian Crisis

[Feanor]

Good roundup as always Feanor. Has any more info regarding the shooting incident come out since yesterday?

There have been several claims that the sniper was caught, each then overturned. So nothing so far.

 

[Feanor]

Some interesting news. The Balaclava border guards units has returned to Crimea, leaving their uniforms and equipment behind in Odessa. They've returned to Crimea as private citizens. 72 of them have returned.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2lLXGgnmRU#t=23"]20 03 2014 БЕЗ КОММЕÐТÐРИEÐ’: Ð’ СЕВÐСТОПОЛЬ ВЕРÐУЛИСЬ ПОГРÐÐИЧÐИКИ - YouTube[/nomedia]

Here the top video is the new National Guard exercises. The rest of the photos, are Russian troops concentrating near Perekop.

u_96:

The Ukrainian government also tried to move weapons and ammo out of long term underground storage facilities, but the columns of trucks were blocked by locals who don't trust what the government will do with the weapons.

http://military-informant.com/index.php/analytic/4903-1.html

Raisings of Russian Navy flags on Ukrainian ships.

bmpd -

Another Ukrainian unit in Crimea is taken down by locals waving Russian flags. And a tractor. In the video is an epic confrontation between the tractor, and the BRDM. Spoiler alert.... the BRDM loses. Russian soldiers are also present, but they don't seem to do much. If anything they keep the crowd separated from the Ukrainian soldiers.

There is a negotiation between a couple of Russian officers and the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are promised equivalent service positions in the Russian military.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TB2k4cmvJJ0"]Граждане пришли оÑвободить воинÑкую чаÑÑ‚ÑŒ - YouTube[/nomedia]

According to Russian news, over 70 units in Crimea have switched to the Russian side, and 6 Ukrainian warships, along with 25 support ships, are now under Russian control. Personally I don't doubt that Russia controls 70 units territories, but I doubt that the units just switched sides. I suspect many either disbanded, or left. Though quite a few seem to be switching sides. The Ukrainian Naval Academy is now a Russian Naval Academy.

http://newsru.com/russia/21mar2014/crimea.html

Meanwhile the Ukrainian government is split over the question of visas. It looks like they may not institute a visa regime with Russia after all.

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/20/678179.html

At least two tanks, possibly more, have burned down with ammo and fuel inside of them, at the 17th Brigade. This is probably the result of untrained personnel trying to use equipment that's been poorly maintained and essentially in storage for years.

http://vz.ru/news/2014/3/20/678235.html

Crimean citizens can expect Russian passports to be issued to all of them by 2014.

http://newsru.com/russia/21mar2014/3months.html

And the USA Secretary of Defense met with the Russian Minister of Defense, to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

http://newsru.com/russia/21mar2014/shoigu.html

 

[Feanor]

It's not really a race discussion, more a language issue and the use of it.

I honestly think economics have more to do with it. Ukrainians are looking across the border, to the east, and seeing factories working, people getting paid on time, cities growing, and efforts made by the government to improve the situation. Then they look at their own government and see a corrupt clique of oligarchs squabbling amongst themselves over who gets to loot the country.

Some turn to nationalism, some to Russia, and some simply give up hope and move. The ethnicity and language question would probably be a lot more manageable if the people in question had stable jobs and careers, if the country wasn't constantly in debt, if the state organs actually did their jobs.

 

[KiwiRob]

Agreed, I also believe that the Euromaiden will revert to type as soon as they get there hands in the cookie jar. What also needs to happen for Ukraine to escape cronyism and skulduggery is for the regional governors to be elected by the people of that province rather than appointed by the incoming President. Russia should also do this.

 

[wittmanace]

I see that France and Germany are to cut military ties with Russia, according to the bbc on tv. France will review the mistral deal in October, and the commentator on bbc said that if there had been any escalation by then, it'll be cancelled. That would surprise me frankly.

What happened with the new navy head who defected to Crimea? Last I heard Kiev was looking to prosecute him.

 

[Feanor]

Agreed, I also believe that the Euromaiden will revert to type as soon as they get there hands in the cookie jar. What also needs to happen for Ukraine to escape cronyism and skulduggery is for the regional governors to be elected by the people of that province rather than appointed by the incoming President. Russia should also do this.

In Russia elected governors led to insane grass-roots corruption with local oligarchs buying the governors seat,and using it as a personal power base to push back against federal attempts to curb corruption.

 

[Feanor]

Crimean self-defense forces will be joined into South MD. Now I don't think that the Crimean Militias are going into the Russian Army. The Polite People are already South MD soldiers. So this announcement probably refers to the ex-Ukrainian Army units that are switching sides.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèëû ñàìîîáîðîíû Êðûìà ââåäóò â ñîñòàâ Þæíîãî âîåííîãî îêðóãà

A Ukrainian vessel tried to raise the sunk boat, block the harbor exit at Donuzlav. But failed.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1245341.html

Ukrainian reservists called up for 10 days of training are being held in the Army for longer. Despite the fact that the Ukrainian Army is supposedly switching to contract soldiers, they are being held there against their will.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1244831.html

There seems to be a continuing problem with getting reservists to show up for the mobilization declared by the new government.

http://u-96.livejournal.com/3266357.html

In Nikolaev not only do protests continue, in larger numbers, but soldiers mothers and relatives showed up at a local unit, and some sort of confrontation ensued. It looks like they're demanding that their children are returned to them, because their reservist service time is up.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1497430.html

Meanwhile it looks like the Marine btln in Feodosiya has gotten orders to leave Crimea.

http://twower.livejournal.com/1244297.html

In Dnepropetrovsk a large column of Ukrainian para-troopers were spotted, on BMDs, and a field camp.

[nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXP4KYdVgvk#t=59"]Ðа Днепропетровщине развернули военно-полевой лагерь - YouTube[/nomedia]

And Putin just created the Crimean Federal Region.

http://newsru.com/russia/21mar2014/putinorders.html

Long lines of people in Crimea, getting Russian passports.

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1497122.html

The EU banned re-export from Crimea through Russia.

http://newsru.com/world/21mar2014/eu2.html

And Ukraine signed the political component of the EU agreement, but declined to sign the economic one for the same reasons given by Yanukovich: it will wreck Ukrainian industry. Interestingly enough for two years the EU tried to convince Ukraine that signing the political without the economic is impossible.

They've also increased financial aid to Ukraine to 1.6 bln eu. Which is still a drop in a bucket, to what Ukraine needs financially.

*

 

[KiwiRob]

In Russia elected governors led to insane grass-roots corruption with local oligarchs buying the governors seat,and using it as a personal power base to push back against federal attempts to curb corruption.

Not really much different from US elections, the person with the most money wins, but at least the people have some choice, unlike now when it goes to the bosses mates.

 

[Feanor]

Not really much different from US elections, the person with the most money wins, but at least the people have some choice, unlike now when it goes to the bosses mates.

There is something called in Russia "the vertical of power". This refers to the ability of those on top to effectively accomplish things on the ground. This was entirely absent when governors were locally elected. They simply lined their own pockets with no regard for anyone or anything. Now that governors are centrally appointed they still line their own pockets, but at the very least they have to do what they're told when they're told. In other words it becomes possible to invest money into infrastructure, and local industry without having all of it stolen.

Remember Yeltsin's re-election campaign when he flew around the country, with suitcases of money? Because transferring the money through regular channels would mean that none of it would get where it's going. For better or for worse, a strong federal government reigned in local corruption in Russia. That having been said, Russian struggle with corruption in general doesn't seem to have been all that successful.

Projects like the Sochi Olympics, or the summit in Vladivostok, would have been entirely impossible with elected governors. They would have been mercilessly sabotaged. As is, even though many people made a lot of money off of government contracts, things actually got built.

 

[Feanor]

Anyways, some more news. The Ukrainian airborne unit in Crimea, stuck there on field exercises when Russia invaded, is being escorted to the Crimean border, by Russian military police.

function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11911151@egNews

And a Ukrainian Marines unit has switched side. out of the 270 service members, 200 have decided to continue serving in the Russian military, 40 have retired from military service, and 30 have decided to return to Ukraine, and continue serving there.

Две Ñотни украинÑких морпехов перешли на Ñторону Ð*оÑÑии | Крым | ВеÑти

This photo is allegedly from the taking of a Ukrainian military unit. The camo and camouflaged SVD don't look like standard Russian military at all. He may be from the new Special Operations Center. Or it may be a fake.

http://i.imgur.com/nXowIsy.jpg

The elected government of Donetsk (the Yanukovich era one, the one that isn't rabidly pro-Russian) has sent a set of demands to the Kiev government. They demand a re-write of the Constitution which will give further autonomy to the regions, state language status for Russian, the ability of the region to retain its own taxes, instead of subsidizing Western Ukraine (interesting, considering the region is a recipient not a donor), the ability to hold local referendums at will, the ability to appoint local government officials without Kiev, representation for opposition forces in the Rada, and permission for local Cossack organization to augment police in dealing with the situation in Ukraine.

A similar, but stronger worded document was passed by Lugansk.

 

EDIT:

A Ukrainian armor column is moving towards Berdyansk (a coastal city, near Crimea). You can see lots of BMP-2, MT-LBs, T-64Bs, and some SP Arty.

u_96: "

And a video of the paratroopers column leaving, under Russian escort.

u_96:

 

[wittmanace]

Anyways, some more news. The Ukrainian airborne unit in Crimea, stuck there on field exercises when Russia invaded, is being escorted to the Crimean border, by Russian military police.

function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=11911151@egNews

And a Ukrainian Marines unit has switched side. out of the 270 service members, 200 have decided to continue serving in the Russian military, 40 have retired from military service, and 30 have decided to return to Ukraine, and continue serving there.

Две Ñотни украинÑких морпехов перешли на Ñторону Ð*оÑÑии | Крым | ВеÑти

This photo is allegedly from the taking of a Ukrainian military unit. The camo and camouflaged SVD don't look like standard Russian military at all. He may be from the new Special Operations Center. Or it may be a fake.

http://i.imgur.com/nXowIsy.jpg

The elected government of Donetsk (the Yanukovich era one, the one that isn't rabidly pro-Russian) has sent a set of demands to the Kiev government. They demand a re-write of the Constitution which will give further autonomy to the regions, state language status for Russian, the ability of the region to retain its own taxes, instead of subsidizing Western Ukraine (interesting, considering the region is a recipient not a donor), the ability to hold local referendums at will, the ability to appoint local government officials without Kiev, representation for opposition forces in the Rada, and permission for local Cossack organization to augment police in dealing with the situation in Ukraine.

A similar, but stronger worded document was passed by Lugansk.

*

EDIT:

A Ukrainian armor column is moving towards Berdyansk (a coastal city, near Crimea). You can see lots of BMP-2, MT-LBs, T-64Bs, and some SP Arty.

u_96: "

And a video of the paratroopers column leaving, under Russian escort.

u_96:

I see the Balbek air base was stormed in the events outlined below. It seems the Ukrainian troops have not received orders from Kiev. I don't know what to make of this, other than get the feeling the Ukrainian troops in Crimea were treated badly by Kiev.

BBC News - Ukrainian military bases targeted in Crimea

 

[Feanor]

I see the Balbek air base was stormed in the events outlined below. It seems the Ukrainian troops have not received orders from Kiev. I don't know what to make of this, other than get the feeling the Ukrainian troops in Crimea were treated badly by Kiev.

BBC News - Ukrainian military bases targeted in Crimea

Emphasis mine. Yes. They were treated badly. They were given contradictory instructions, were not given any help or support, and mostly were just left with two unpleasant alternatives. Treason/desertion or facing overwhelming and heavily armed Russian troops with sticks and harsh words.

There's some very sad material here:http://twower.livejournal.com/1246048.html

Where the Marine Btln commander says that in the whole time not a single representative of Ukrainian GenHQ visited the unit, the MinDef never called the unit commander (not a single phone conversation) and no real instructions were passed down. Eventually they had no choice but to surrender.

Also here: http://twower.livejournal.com/1245826.html

Facebook posts of a Ukrainian officer in a blockaded EW Center of the Ukrainian Army. The first posts are full of optimism, but towards the end they get bitter and disappointed over the inactivity of the Ukrainian military leadership. In the end the center is "stormed" by Russian SpN GRU units, ending with a bloodless search of the premises, and a disbanding of the unit.

Here: http://bmpd.livejournal.com/782939.html
http://azlok.livejournal.com/909306.html

The 36th Coastal Defense Brigade (essentially a mech-infantry brigade) surrendered after similar circumstance and mass desertions of personnel.

Here: http://sokol-ff.livejournal.com/751725.html

The last few Ukrainian Navy vessels surrendered without being stormed, because they had no instructions from higher, and were essentially abandoned by Ukrainian leadership.

Here: http://newsru.com/world/22mar2014/pressing.html

Another unit was stormed by Crimean Militias with smoke grenades. Russian military did not participate in the assault but observed "with satisfaction". Also, apparently the Ukrainian border guards closed the border with Crimea, not even letting their own military trapped in Crimea through.

Here: [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1zwHpeUXgY"]СеваÑтополь. Бельбек: ВЧ-Ð4515 (Штурм) - YouTube[/nomedia]
http://u-96.livejournal.com/3271144.html
http://azlok.livejournal.com/910450.html

Belbek airbase has been stormed. First locals tried to take the place, but the Ukrainian soldiers fired warning shots. Then Russian SpN went in. The gate was knocked down with an APC and Russian troops took the place. A Ukrainian service member was wounded.

If you look at the photos a few of them distinctly don't look like MoD personnel. It's possible SpN FSB or MVD was used. The storm shields, painted AKs, the strange camo, and the beard, all seem to point to some other agency. It was probably done via the new inter-ministry Special Operations Center. They look a lot like these guys: [nomedia="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VP0L5YBtJrc"]Силы Ñпециальных пераций (CCO) РоÑÑии - YouTube[/nomedia]

 

[Feanor]

Updates.

The Vinnitsa corvette has been taken by storm, by Russian troops. The Slavutich control ship has been taken by Russian troops and Crimean Militias. 54 out of 67 ships of the Ukrainian Navy have been taken by Russia. Out of 18 thousand Ukrainian service members, only ~2 thousand have desired to return to Ukraine.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Ð*аÑклад по ВС Украины
u_96:
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Ð*аÑклад по ВС Украины
u_96:

The Ukrainian sub Zaporozhye is being handed over to the Russian submarine squadron in the Black Sea.

bmpd -

More photos and video from Belbek.

Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - Вежливые люди Бельбек
Ð“Ð°Ð»ÐµÑ€ÐµÑ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ фотографии - Падение крепоÑти Бельбек ФОТО
u_96:

The top set of photos is from Belbek, the bottom is the Perevalnoe.

u_96:

Meanwhile pro-Russian politicians are coming under criminal investigation by the new government in Kiev. A number of Donetsk officials have already been arrested, some without charges.

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/22/678500.html

And Yatsenyuk, the president, is demanding that Russia compensate Ukraine for state property lost with Crimean independence. They say the numbers are in the hundreds of billions.

http://vz.ru/politics/2014/3/22/678476.html

 

[Belesari]

And no one around is saying anything about Russia just taking all these ships, equipment, etc.

Hell getting the Crimea (from everything I have heard the "vote" is best described as a joke) through military force and propaganda is one thing. But to then just confiscate everything the Ukrainians have that they can get their hands on would seem to be another.

So now Ukraine has been disarmed, has masses of Russian troops all along it's borders, is being humiliated, and is-though no one is saying it in quit out loud yet- been turned into a Russian satellite state.


And no one in all of Europe is going to do a thing?

Updates.

The Vinnitsa corvette has been taken by storm, by Russian troops. The Slavutich control ship has been taken by Russian troops and Crimean Militias. 54 out of 67 ships of the Ukrainian Navy have been taken by Russia. Out of 18 thousand Ukrainian service members, only ~2 thousand have desired to return to Ukraine.

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Ð*аÑклад по ВС Украины
u_96:
Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ‚ÑƒÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð² Крыму. Ð*аÑклад по ВС Украины
u_96:

The Ukrainian sub Zaporozhye is being handed over to the Russian submarine squadron in the Black Sea.

bmpd -

More photos and video from Belbek.

Добро пожаловать в журнал Ð*оÑтовÑкого Орла - Вежливые люди Бельбек
Ð“Ð°Ð»ÐµÑ€ÐµÑ Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð¾Ð¹ фотографии - Падение крепоÑти Бельбек ФОТО
u_96:

The top set of photos is from Belbek, the bottom is the Perevalnoe.

u_96:

Meanwhile pro-Russian politicians are coming under criminal investigation by the new government in Kiev. A number of Donetsk officials have already been arrested, some without charges.

 

And Yatsenyuk, the president, is demanding that Russia compensate Ukraine for state property lost with Crimean independence. They say the numbers are in the hundreds of billions.

 

 

[Feanor]

And no one around is saying anything about Russia just taking all these ships, equipment, etc.

As opposed to what? Even the Ukrainian flagship, which is in Odessa, never having returned to Sevastopol, has massive desertion issues, with crew leaving in droves. Most of those ships are Soviet-era rust-buckets with little to no real value. They've been poorly maintained, and many are only nominally in service, like the Zaporozhye submarine which was welded to the pier to prevent it from accidentally sinking. Reality is that the Ukrainian Navy has ceased to exist.

Hell getting the Crimea (from everything I have heard the "vote" is best described as a joke) through military force and propaganda is one thing. But to then just confiscate everything the Ukrainians have that they can get their hands on would seem to be another.

Not really. The vote is questionable with regards to time tables, but there's little doubt that the majority of the population of Crimea would prefer to be in Russia. The majority of the population is Russian.

So now Ukraine has been disarmed, has masses of Russian troops all along it's borders,

Well there's not much one can do about movement of Russian troops on Russian soil.

is being humiliated,

Lets face it, the current government in Kiev is the #1 reason for Ukraine's humiliation. It can't even control its own followers in the west of Ukraine, nevermind dealing with its opponents in the east. It's a government where all the force wielding agencies are controlled by Svoboda (a neo-fascist party) and that couldn't even make up its mind about evacuating or supporting their service members in Crimea.

and is-though no one is saying it in quit out loud yet- been turned into a Russian satellite state.

Who else will fork up the tens of billions needed to prop up Ukraine, and prevent it from becoming a failed state? As is, Ukraine seems to be done for. Their independence experiment seems to have failed entirely. Their industry is in shambles, and depends on Russia heavily. Their agriculture isn't doing great either. Their government consists of crooks and now some fascists in the mix, and their military and police are incapable of doing their job on even a basic level.

There are various armed militias active currently, with only one of them being officially sanctioned (the National Guard). The rest are technically illegal, and don't take orders from the government. There are robberies of private enterprises in broad daylight, with the police unwilling and unable to do much about it. Who is willing to do something about this? Who's willing to pay the bill?

And no one in all of Europe is going to do a thing?

Well Russia has done "a thing". Within the next 6-12 months something will happen. Either the fascists will take power entirely, in which case Ukraine is likely to see civil war with Russian involvement in the east. Or the fascists will be slowly forced out of their positions, and a new set of oligarchs will take power, and continue to do what Yanukovich, Yuschenko, and Kuchma, have been doing. Nothing. Either way I don't see anyone else stepping up to the plate and doing something about this. Certainly not when in Western Ukraine people are asking for the EU and NATO to come save them, while in Eastern Ukraine people are saying that instead of going to war with Russia, Ukraine should be going to war with NATO...

Maybe a split down the middle wouldn't be a bad idea. The West could join the EU. They have almost no industry for the EU to demolish. They could be like a poorer Romania, though what the EU could possibly want with another one of those I don't know... The East could join Russia, or form a convenient satellite state. Their industry would continue working in close cooperation with Russian industry, they'd get the occasional state contracts from Russia, and wouldn't have to worry about an unstable government in Kiev.

 

[Feanor]

Fun little fact, the Ukrainian Army has taken casualties in the form of 6 T-64BV tanks, 1 Msta-S SP Arty, 2 BTR-80s, and 1 Su-24M. They were all lost in accidents of various kinds, during the current "exercises". This is over less then two weeks.

 

[Waylander]

Svoboda has controls all important ministries?
I highly doubt that apart from Defense the the ministries for agrarian and for natural resources fall into that category.
Even if one adds the Euromaidan ministries it just adds health, culture and sports.

But hey, according to the Russians the whole Ukrainian government ist just some steaming pile of fascists whereas the Russian government is peace loving and in search of harmony and friends...

The russian economy stands for a little bit more than 1% of our exports and I fervently hope that we get independent of their energy as soon as possible and let them wither with an economy which practically has no attractive export goods apart from natural resources and weapons.

Let them choke on their dream of a greater Russia. Although I am sceptical of our will to do just that.

 

[wittmanace]

Svoboda has controls all important ministries?
I highly doubt that apart from Defense the the ministries for agrarian and for natural resources fall into that category.
Even if one adds the Euromaidan ministries it just adds health, culture and sports.

But hey, according to the Russians the whole Ukrainian government ist just some steaming pile of fascists whereas the Russian government is peace loving and in search of harmony and friends...

The russian economy stands for a little bit more than 1% of our exports and I fervently hope that we get independent of their energy as soon as possible and let them wither with an economy which practically has no attractive export goods apart from natural resources and weapons.

Let them choke on their dream of a greater Russia. Although I am sceptical of our will to do just that.

I can't find it right now, but I'll have a look later, there was a bbc piece on the key players in key positions. The far right did have key positions, including defense, intelligence and security, according to them.

Personally I think the bigger threat would be a weakened Russia, rather than a resurgent Russia, regardless of what one's view of Russia is.

 

[Waylander]

I bet our Eastern European NATO allies may have another view on that, especially the Baltic countries.

 

[Twain]

As opposed to what? Even the Ukrainian flagship, which is in Odessa, never having returned to Sevastopol, has massive desertion issues, with crew leaving in droves. Most of those ships are Soviet-era rust-buckets with little to no real value. They've been poorly maintained, and many are only nominally in service, like the Zaporozhye submarine which was welded to the pier to prevent it from accidentally sinking. Reality is that the Ukrainian Navy has ceased to exist.

I didn't know that the condition of a ship mattered when it came to owership issues, nor should whether or not much of the crew deserted, those are ukranian property unless you are saying that Russia has some right to seize the ships?