Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[kato]

Swerve, of course Turkey cant refuse NATO access to its airfields - as ALL NATO decisions are taken unanimously, so it would be paradox if Turkey denied that.

Turkey could even deny use of its territory in an Article 5 case (mutual self-defense).

"will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary"

Besides which to trigger an Article 5, any armed attack would have to occur on NATO territory (north of the Tropic of Cancer) or against ships or aircraft in the North Atlantic.

OTH, Germany or Poland may start issuing their passports to the residents of Kaliningrad anclave- what would Russia say then?

Actually, Germany has been doing just that throughout the former Soviet Union for the past 15 years, to anyone who can even remotely claim to have German ancestors. Triggering an immigration of over 2 million people (socalled Spätaussiedler) from these territories into Germany since 1993, with an estimated 800,000 people with the "right" to a German passport remaining in Russia.

 

[Firehorse]

Пожар в Харьковской области признан ЧС государственного уровня
http://www.rian.ru/incidents/20080828/150736729.html

"Fire near Charkov, Ukraine is considered emergency on the state level".

"Trains heading to Crimea and Caucasus may stop".
http://www.rosbalt.ru/2008/8/28/517934.html

Coincidence or not, Russia may soon decide to help Ukraine in "reconstruction", once a lot of ammunition is destoyed!

Those ethnic Germans don't live in the anclave in Russia or near Germany. Kalingrad now has mixed population of mostly Slavs.

Cool picture of MI-24!
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Georg.../2008_08_26t093703_325x450_us_georgia_ossetia

 

[Feanor]

So it's a matter of what actual responses materialize from this conflict on the part of the EU. The main problem of course is that the EU and NATO were originally divided over the situation, but with Russian recognition of the two regions EU and NATO are now pretty united in anti-Russian sentiment.

 

[Grand Danois]

What may have contributed to the hardening in W Europe has a lot to do with the Russians ignoring Zarkozys piece of paper, ie the attempt to contain and keep a lid on the situation.

The Russians had plenty of maneuver space, but blew it.

 

[Feanor]

What may have contributed to the hardening in W Europe has a lot to do with the Russians ignoring Zarkozys piece of paper, ie the attempt to contain and keep a lid on the situation.

The Russians had plenty of maneuver space, but blew it.

You know I think if the Russian Army stayed within Ossetian border, the west would've pretty much ignored the conflict and given Georgian no support whatsoever.

 

[Grand Danois]

You know I think if the Russian Army stayed within Ossetian border, the west would've pretty much ignored the conflict and given Georgian no support whatsoever.

Bingo. Or pretty close.

I can refer to my first post on the subject (in the closed thread).

 

[Feanor]

Well the initial response from the west was not just muted, it was non-existent, it's just that our political leadership felt it necessary to push all the wrong buttons. :/

 

[Grand Danois]

Some quotes & developments.

Although Western nations are calling the Russian military presence in Poti a clear violation of a European Union-brokered cease-fire, a top Russian general said using warships to deliver aid is “devilish.”

Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn warned that NATO has already exhausted the number of military forces it can have in the Black Sea under international agreements and warned Western nations against sending more ships.

“Can NATO — which is not a state located in the Black Sea — continuously increase its group of forces and systems there? It turns out that it cannot,” Nogovitsyn was quoted as saying Wednesday by the Interfax news agency.http://www.navytimes.com/news/2008/08/ap_georgia_russia_ships_082708w/

Russia’s ambassador to Moldova, meanwhile, said the country’s leaders should be wary of what happened in Georgia and avoid a “bloody and catastrophic trend of events” in the separatist, pro-Russia region of Trans-Dniester. The ambassador, Valeri Kuzmin, said Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia because of “Georgia’s aggression against South Ossetia.”

http://www.navytimes.com/news/2008/08/ap_georgia_russia_ships_082708w/

Russia faces fresh condemnation

Seven of the world's leading industrialised nations have jointly condemned Russia's decision to recognise Georgia's breakaway regions.

Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and UK said Moscow's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia violated Georgia's integrity and sovereignty.

Earlier, the UK's foreign secretary said Western countries should re-examine their relations with Russia.

David Miliband also warned Russia not to start a new Cold War.

Speaking during a visit to Ukraine, Mr Miliband said Moscow had not reconciled itself with the new map of the region and that the West should should look at ways to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas.

...

In a statement, the Group of Seven said they condemned "the action of our fellow G8 member" and reasserted their support for the Georgian government.

"Russia's recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia violates the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia and is contrary to UN Security Council Resolutions supported by Russia," the statement said.

...

The group also said it deplored Russia's "excessive use of military force in Georgia and its continued occupation of parts of Georgia".

"We call unanimously on the Russian government to implement in full the six-point peace plan brokered by President Sarkozy on behalf of the EU, in particular to withdraw its forces behind the pre-conflict lines," the statement added.

"We reassert our strong and continued support for Georgia's sovereignty within its internationally recognized borders and underline our respect and support for the democratic and legitimate government of Georgia as we pursue a peaceful, durable solution to this conflict."

...

China addressed the crisis for the first time by expressing "concern" about developments in the region and urging dialogue. The comments came as Chinese President Hu Jintao met President Medvedev in Tajikistan ahead of a regional summit

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7585182.stm

Yup, China weighed in...

 

[Feanor]

Here's an interesting video, in Russian unfortunately of a briefing with Nogovitsuin, where he goes over in detail, the Georgian force disposition near Abkhazia, according to the Georgian invasion plan. Georgian forces there numbered at least 3 brigades, a total of 9 000 men. The 1st, 2nd, 4th, and elements of the 5th Brigades. The plan of operations covered a 2 day time table for capturing Sukhumi and lower parts of Abkhazia. He even lists out targets on the Georgian map marked for artillery and air strikes.

http://www.rian.ru/osetia_mm/20080827/150725639.html

 

[swerve]

That agreement is clear not more then 45000 tons...it doesnt say peace time or war time basicly if we want and we should actualy close the pass to black sea

As I've previously stated, that is incorrect. Turkey must obey the Montreux Convention (I suggest you read it), which means that in normal, peacetime circumstances, Turkey must allow the passage of warships, within certain limits, and bar them outside those limits.

The convention has detailed rules about wars. The rules depend on whether Turkey is, or is not, involved. If Turkey is involved in a war, or fears that it is about to be attacked, all the restrictions of the convention cease to apply, & Turkey can block or allow whatever ships it wishes - because as long as Turkey is at war, the only clause in the convention which applies is the one which says that when Turkey is at war it can suspend the convention.

BTW, as two other NATO countries have Black Sea coasts, there is a sneaky trick available, though it would need Romania or Bulgaria to agree. Other NATO states could transfer ships to Romania or Bulgaria. They would then be exempt from most of the restrictions.

 

[Feanor]

BTW, as two NATO countries have Black Sea coasts, there is a sneaky trick available, though it would need Romania or Bulgaria to agree. Other NATO states could transfer ships to Romania or Bulgaria. They would then be exempt from most of the restrictions.

Very unlikely. I can see it happening only in extreme circumstances, such as a NATO war, but then Turkey would be involved and it would be unnecessary in the first place. So far S. Ossetia has received verbal support from Hamas, and iirc Cuba, but no recognition from anyone other then Russia. From the looks of it, the SCO summit won't produce any strong pro-Russia support either.

Saakashvili has been denied presence at the urgent EU summit, and tried to mask the denial by claiming he's afraid to leave the country because Russia won't let him return by blocking the airspace. Meanwhile the G7 countries have issued a statement directly critical of Russian action in Georgia. Finally Germany proposed international investigation of civilian deaths in the conflict to resolve accusations against Georgia.

 

[Sampanviking]

Very unlikely. I can see it happening only in extreme circumstances, such as a NATO war, but then Turkey would be involved and it would be unnecessary in the first place. So far S. Ossetia has received verbal support from Hamas, and iirc Cuba, but no recognition from anyone other then Russia. From the looks of it, the SCO summit won't produce any strong pro-Russia support either.

Saakashvili has been denied presence at the urgent EU summit, and tried to mask the denial by claiming he's afraid to leave the country because Russia won't let him return by blocking the airspace. Meanwhile the G7 countries have issued a statement directly critical of Russian action in Georgia. Finally Germany proposed international investigation of civilian deaths in the conflict to resolve accusations against Georgia.

This is what I have found so far from the summit as quoted by the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7585580.stm

In a joint statement, the SCO gave their support for Russia's "active role" in resolving the conflict in Georgia by "assisting in peace and cooperation in the region".

"The SCO member states express their deep concern over the recent tensions surrounding the South Ossetia question and call for the sides to peacefully resolve existing problems through dialogue," the statement said.

Pretty strong by Chinese Standards, I am still looking for an original version of the statement.

 

[Grand Danois]

This is what I have found so far from the summit as quoted by the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7585580.stm



Pretty strong by Chinese Standards, I am still looking for an original version of the statement.

Uhhh - will SO/ABK be recognised by more nations than Transnistria?

Exciting.

 

[Chrom]

Uhhh - will SO/ABK be recognised by more nations than Transnistria?

Exciting.

Probably not immediately. Few small countries (like Belorussia or Venezuela) could, but rest will probably wait. The real question is how many will recognize SO unofficially - like f.e. US recognizes Taiwan. In future Kosovo recognition could be exchanged for SO/ABK recognition.

 

[Grand Danois]

Probably not immediately. Few small countries (like Belorussia or Venezuela) could, but rest will probably wait. The real question is how many will recognize SO unofficially - like f.e. US recognizes Taiwan. In future Kosovo recognition could be exchanged for SO/ABK recognition.

Actually it is getting to a point where it looks like nobody is going to recognize a country just to do the paperwork of transitioning SO into Russian territory.

Russia might not even get Venezuela and the likes on board, even though they'll miss a chance to poke "The West" in the eye.

Btw, SO is a landlocked, pointless place, with nothing of interest to anyone and 70k pop and is transitioning into Russian territory. WTF does it need "unofficial" recognition for?! - what Russia needs is for the world to accept what it did - officially - so it can annex SO.

 

[merocaine]

Btw, SO is a landlocked, pointless place, with nothing of interest to anyone and 70k pop and is transitioning into Russian territory. WTF does it need "unofficial" recognition for?! - what Russia needs is for the world to accept what it did - officially - so it can annex SO.

Perhaps they could reinvent themselves as a tax haven for the super rich

 

[bey1919]

Russia warns Turkey on U.S. ships in Black Sea

Russia said U.S. ships could only stay in the Black Sea for 21 days according to the Montreux Convention, and warned if they do not leave by then Turkey would be responsible.

Russia's deputy military chief Anatoly Nogovitsyn said the NATO warships' entrance to the Black Sea is a "serious threat to our security," Hurriyet daily reported on Thursday.

He said under the Montreux Convention, signed in 1936 on the status of the Turkish Straits, the warships can only stay in the Black Sea for 21 days.

"If the NATO ships continue to stay in the Black Sea after the expiration of 21 day-period, then I would like to remind you that Turkey would be responsible," he added.

The U.S. warships are spearheading a humanitarian aid mission to Georgia, a U.S. ally that wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Clashes erupted in the Caucasus after Russia responded to Georgia's military operation to regain the control in the breakaway region South Osstia.

The U.S. ships are carrying nuclear missiles that can hit Russian targets as far away as St. Petersburg, Nogovitsyn said, according to Hurriyet. Russia has dispatched its own ships to track the U.S. vessels, the newspaper said.

source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/home ... .asp?scr=1

 

[DMG]

Are the Russians seriously trying to annoy and upset everybody?! The United States, Canada and European countries are already dismayed and pissed off, and now Russia's picking on Turkey? As expected, not even China will side with them on this given their own problems with Tibet and Taiwan. More than everm, Russia is increasingly isolated internationally.

 

[chefster]

I was always under the impression Putin was a cool guy, whats up with all this, seems like a piece of the story is missing. I don'tget it.

 

[Sampanviking]

We now have the response of the SCO. It remains purely in the Diplomatic Arena and avoids martial rhetoric. That aside future discussion and developments will need to bear this in mind in order to have a full understanding and so is posted for reference.

Here is the business part of the SCO joint statement:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/...ent_9730813.htm

DUSHANBE, Aug. 28 (Xinhua) -- Top leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) agreed Thursday that any attempt to solve problems by merely resorting to force could not work and would only hinder a comprehensive settlement of local conflicts. A comprehensive solution to existing problems can be found only by taking into account the interests of all parties involved and including them all in the negotiation process rather than isolating any of them, said the leaders in a joint declaration issued at the conclusion of their summit in the Tajik capital.

Any attempt to strengthen a country's own security at the expense of that of others is detrimental to maintaining global security and stability, they said.

On the issue of South Ossetia, the SCO members expressed their deep worries over the tense situation triggered by the South Ossetia conflict, and called on relevant parties to solve existing problems peacefully through dialogue, strive for reconciliation and push for negotiations.

The SCO leaders welcomed the six-point proposal on solving the conflict which was reached in Moscow on Aug. 12, expressing their support for Russia's positive role in promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

On the prevention of conflicts, the leaders pledged to abide by the UN Charter and relevant UN Security Council resolutions and basic norms governing international law in the process.

The UN Security Council, which is entrusted with the major responsibility of safeguarding world peace and security, should play a leading role in this regard, they said.

The declaration was signed by Chinese President Hu Jintao, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon and Uzbek President Islam Karimov.

So they have found a way to support Russia without upsetting the anti-sessionist applecart. The words are coded but quite strong and suggests a openign position rather than a fait accompli. The wording is strong although not bellicose and leaves all sides with plenty of room for maneouver. It is also a notice to NATO that it cannot discount or ignore its view.

Key phrases

Top leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) agreed Thursday that any attempt to solve problems by merely resorting to force could not work

This is a primary criticisem of Georgia for starting military action against South Ossetia and a secondary criticesem against the US for exessive Sabre Rattling.

The SCO leaders welcomed the six-point proposal on solving the conflict which was reached in Moscow on Aug. 12, expressing their support for Russia's positive role in promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

Pretty solid support for Russia, and an affirmation that Russia's actions in totality are justified and in the best interests of continuing their long standing Peace Keeping Mission.

I think many countries worldwide in and out of NATO will take notice and align their policy accordingly.