Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Todjaeger]

Yet, here is a different take on the SCO outlook.

DUSHANBE, Tajikistan - China and several Central Asian nations rebuffed Russia's hopes of international support for its actions in Georgia, issuing a statement Thursday denouncing the use of force and calling for the respect of every country's territorial integrity.

A joint declaration from the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization also offered some support for Russia's "active role in promoting peace" following a cease-fire, but overall it appeared to increase Moscow's international isolation.

AND

China has traditionally been wary of endorsing separatists abroad, mindful of its own problems with Tibet and Muslims in the western territory of Xinjiang. The joint statement, which was unanimously endorsed, made a point of stressing the sanctity of borders — two days after Russia sought to redraw Georgia's territory.

AND

The four Central Asian members of the group — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — all seemed reluctant to damage their relations with Europe and the U.S.

This seems to contradict the prior view that the SCO was offering overall mild support for Russia. Incidentally, when I tried the link, it appeared to be a dead link.

China has traditionally been wary of endorsing separatists abroad, mindful of its own problems with Tibet and Muslims in the western territory of Xinjiang. The joint statement, which was unanimously endorsed, made a point of stressing the sanctity of borders — two days after Russia sought to redraw Georgia's territory.

Of particular interest from the news article is the comment quoted above. It would suggest that the PRC, having issues with groups wishing to separate from China, does not wish to encourage foreign separatists, who in turn might encourage their own domestic separatists.

What will be particularly interesting to see, is how Russia views the SCO response. At present, the SCO response seems neutral enough so that depending on ones viewpoint (i.e. US/NATO/EU, or Russia) the response offered that side mild support. Hopefully, what will not happen is both sides feeling that the SCO supports their position sufficiently enough for the different sides to feel safe in escalating the situation.

-Cheers

 

[chris]

My guess is that the fine point in the SCO statement is this.

The SCO leaders welcomed the six-point proposal on solving the conflict which was reached in Moscow on Aug. 12, expressing their support for Russia's positive role in promoting peace and cooperation in the region.

They effectively say that Russia is "following" the six-point cease fire agreement. One of the main arguments used in the west for condemning Russia, is the "violation" of the agreement.

 

[Grand Danois]

That's glossing over. And don't care for the semantic exercise.

Russia needed recognition of SO & ABK. They didn't get it. Not even from its closest friends, and Russia left with - a fig leaf.

Most surprising, but in 20/20 not really, was the position of the Centralasian Stans.

Tonight, in the capitals of the world, the realisation that Putin and Medjedev are not the chess players they were though to be, is setting in.

 

[chris]

Russia needed recognition of SO & ABK. They didn't get it. Not even from its closest friends, and Russia left with - a fig leaf.

I don't think that Russia even cares about SO & ABK. Their independence is only a bargaining chip. My opinion is that they would trade them for a de-recognition of Kosovo anytime. Don't forget that their status is the major legal obstacle for Georgia joining NATO. If everybody recognizes them today then Georgia will be a NATO member tomorrow.

 

[Sampanviking]

Oops a badly copied link. here is the proper one.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/28/content_9730813.htm

This is not a take, but the offical version from Chinese State media, so it means that this is precisely the way the Chinese see it. I agree with the point made by Chris.

I dont know where your source came from Todjaeger, but "a take" is simply spin by a media organisation.

Grand Danois you seem to have fallen into the same trap as so many, which is to read the statement in the light of the expectations which you assume to be the Russian objective. The fact remains, this is the view of the SCO, not the wish list; real or supposed, of any individual member and it is supportive of Russia. It is therefore significant in its own right.

 

[Sampanviking]

I don't think that Russia even cares about SO & ABK. Their independence is only a bargaining chip. My opinion is that they would trade them for a de-recognition of Kosovo anytime. Don't forget that their status is the major legal obstacle for Georgia joining NATO. If everybody recognizes them today then Georgia will be a NATO member tomorrow.

I think that is a reasonable position. If Russia is actually looking to incorporaate the "Republics" International recognition as Independant is probably the last thing they actually want.

Sort of a "its really not safe to be out on your own, so maybe you should come inside and play with us" situation.

 

[Grand Danois]

I don't think that Russia even cares about SO & ABK. Their independence is only a bargaining chip. My opinion is that they would trade them for a de-recognition of Kosovo anytime. Don't forget that their status is the major legal obstacle for Georgia joining NATO. If everybody recognizes them today then Georgia will be a NATO member tomorrow.

I doubt their goal is de-recognition of Kosovo: firstly because it is unattainable; second, because they really don't care about Kosovo either.

Bargaining chip? Perhaps, but that will be about something else, time will tell.

 

[Grand Danois]

Grand Danois you seem to have fallen into the same trap as so many, which is to read the statement in the light of the expectations which you assume to be the Russian objective. The fact remains, this is the view of the SCO, not the wish list; real or supposed, of any individual member and it is supportive of Russia. It is therefore significant in its own right.

Nope. Russia can't move forward nor backwards on the issue now; they're stuck.

And what it says is deliberately so ambivalent that it can be used any way you wish and is made for presentation in internal media in order not to lose face, it hides disagreement over how Russia pushed the global ruleset, tailored so that an ally does not lose face; only actual fact is that Russia didn't get what they needed.

I rarely do "calls to authority", but read the editorials worldwide and commentary tomorrow.

 

[Firehorse]

Actually, their goal was to legalize SO & ABK separation from Georgia- and they could care less who else recognize those areas. In due time, they'll be admitted into the RF.

Disarm: The Lesson of the Georgia Fiasco
http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/georgia-fiasco.html

U.S. assessing possible military aid to Georgia
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080827...c&printer=1;_ylt=AjbP1y7RmSY_QIoaN3.JE2pg.3QA

But they don't understand Georgian leader's mentality: the mare fact of US military support will give him incentive to fight Russia again!

Crimean peninsula could be the next South Ossetia
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...a-could-be-the-next-south-ossetia-910769.html

So, there are many residents holding Russian passports! Russia will eventually retake Southern & Eastern Ukraine stretching from Romania to Sea of Azov & Kharkov- a good way to counter NATO expansion!

 

[nevidimka]

I read this Article and got curious.

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5451.3777.0.0

Germany controlling EU? Rise of a new Germany? EU-Russian Alliance?

This Article certainly talks about things I never considered about. What do you guys think of it?

 

[Feanor]

Indeed. Or maybe not. It will antagonize the west, and reinvigorate the NATO that Russia fears so much. The real issue is that nobody else is recognizing SO and ABK and that is the problem. Meanwhile; Putin firmly pointed the finger at the U.S. Not just hints or suggestions but in practice firm accusations of starting the conflict intentionally. And Georgia officially declared the two regions to be occupied by Russia, annulling all previous status agreements. Comissar of the Council of Europe, Hummerberg (I hope I copied the name over accurately, as my sources are in Russian) said that the situation in Ts'hinvali was a humanitarian catastrophe.

The E.U. summit is unlikely to result in sanctions for Russia, reports Reuters according to an unnamed diplomat, as not all sides are convinced that sanctions are necessary. Meanwhile Lukashenko (president of Belarus) said that he supports the Russian decision, and says that in the situation, Russia had no other moral choice. However he said nothing about recognizing the republics.

EDIT: Your article is very little value academically. Given the several religious references to prophecies, and the mentioning of the Vatican as one of the main players in modern day Europe makes me want to disregard it entirely.

 

[Grand Danois]

I read this Article and got curious.

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5451.3777.0.0

Germany controlling EU? Rise of a new Germany? EU-Russian Alliance?

This Article certainly talks about things I never considered about. What do you guys think of it?

Didn't read this particular piece, but have read some of their other material.

Religious people waiting for Armageddon to kick in.

 

[nevidimka]

I'm also disregarding the part on religious prophecies, but only interested on the matter regarding Germany-EU.

Are there any truth in those views? Like how Germany is trying to form a new EU controlled by it, away from US influence or being allied militarily to Nato?

 

[kato]

Umm, that's been the case for 10 years essentially. Well, not to that extent really, but there have been serious considerations of grand power in particular together with France, culminating in the Lamy-Verheugen-Plan in 2000, which proposed merging Germany and France, and creating a Federal European State around that.

As for the "article", i'm laughing. Loudly.

Stoiber, who's largely cited throughout there, was shoved off to a bureaucratic EU position in what amounted to a coup within his party really (the CSU, his party, has ruled Bavaria with an iron fist for 60 years). Outside of a few old friends in the party, he essentially lost his political power in that "coup", resulting in him stepping down.

 

[Sampanviking]

There has been another Statement dealing with these matters.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-08/28/content_9731360.htm

Key points:

Any attempt to strengthen a country's own security at the expense of that of others is detrimental to maintaining global security and stability, it said.

A definite swipe at NATO's eastern expansion.

The leaders also pledged to establish a mechanism of joint assessment, prevention and response to external threats and challenges to regional security.

A more robust and better co-ordinated response to the previous point.

On the issue related to the creation of a global anti-missile defense system, they stressed that the establishment of such a system will not help in maintaining a strategic balance, runs counter to international efforts towards arms control and nuclear non-proliferation, and is not conducive to enhancing trust among countries and regional stability.

Pretty much self explanitory.

In fact it seems the only thing Russia did not get today was Public recognition of A and SO. Not that it was ever really on the cards from this club.

 

[Grand Danois]

Those statements are a) so general that they can be used for everything or nothing, or; b) reiteration of already known positions which has not been precipitated by the current situation in OS/ABK.

Recgnition is the only thing Russia can use for anything.

 

[Chrom]

I'm also disregarding the part on religious prophecies, but only interested on the matter regarding Germany-EU.

Are there any truth in those views? Like how Germany is trying to form a new EU controlled by it, away from US influence or being allied militarily to Nato?

"Core" EU members for a quite long time speculate about new, "tight" EU which they hope will be less influenced by US. They trying to create such structure what will allow old EU countries (Germany, France, Spain, Italy, few others) to impose they politic even if "new" members like Poland or Lithuania disagree with them. Or, better to say - create such structure what can take necessary EU-wide decisions even if one (or several) EU states doesnt support it. This structure, if created, will be a big step forward to United States of Europe.

 

[Stryker001]

it will be winter soon over in Europe, less chances for Forest Fires, until next summer.
www.defencetalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6934&highlight=Bushfires&page=2www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/media/2008/08/news_20080819_geor.htm
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2008/08/28/Ukraine_Ammunition_depot_blasts_expected/UPI-29861219949457/
www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0827/breaking71.htm

All that is required is a black ops false flag operation to kick things off similar to the rumor about the US VP, wanting to start a false flag operation against Iran.

 

[Stryker001]

Hey Boss please do not use my idea for a covert false flag for ground operations against Iran against Russia. I am retiring in January also.
have the found the corpse or living of the US passport holder the Russian have found, Georgia enclaves are Georgian territory so a US citizen was in internationally recognized Georgia.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080828/ap_on_re_eu/georgia

False Flag rumor on Iran [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWmQH1NlzzM"]www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWmQH1NlzzM[/ame]
Darth Vader on the way to Georgian AO
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/presidentbush/2008/08/cheney-israel.html
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/presidentbush/2008/08/georgia-war.html http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/376679_teepenonline28.html

With all those ships, it will probably be USS Cole incident by unknown separatists. Coming out of the Ukraine Russia should monitor the Ukrainian and Georgian coastlines with radar and satellites to prevent this from happening.
http://www.maritimeterrorism.com/2007/12/27/analyzing-the-uss-cole-incident/

 

[Feanor]

On a side note, Russia found one way to hit the American economy hard. By banning chicken import. Russia is the largest market for American poultry!