Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Grand Danois]

On a side note, Russia found one way to hit the American economy hard. By banning chicken import. Russia is the largest market for American poultry!

KFC is subverting Russia! Actually it is quite odd. One should think it was cheaper raising poultry in Russia...

 

[Stryker001]

Organized crime can create a further false flag operation to propagate the annexation of territory up to Odessa. Then NATO will be forced to go to war against Russia. They are well tasked for it as they were recruited worldwide after Sept 11, just in case things got out of control at the other front line re: the home front.

Crazy days back in 2001, many options and scenarios, counters were considered.

 

[Stryker001]

This situation in Europe is a cold war; a cold war can become a hot war very easily via a false flag, so the super powers are not the only ones that have their finger on the button of nuclear arsenals.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEFCON

 

[eaf-f16]

Those statements are a) so general that they can be used for everything or nothing, or; b) reiteration of already known positions which has not been precipitated by the current situation in OS/ABK.

Recgnition is the only thing Russia can use for anything.

I always thought that Russia could care less about international recognition of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. What Russia doesn't want is isolation and condemnation from even its own allies (which it doesn't have to worry about). The thing about the previous SCO statement was that it was too neutral (ambiguous actually). This neutrality was interpreted (by the Associated Press) to say that even the other members of the SCO disagree with Russia's actions. Of course, you can interpret it this way, but why would Russia approve of a statement that condemns it.

 

[Grand Danois]

I always thought that Russia could care less about international recognition of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. What Russia doesn't want is isolation and condemnation from even its own allies (which it doesn't have to worry about).

Russia will need a reasonable amount of recognition of SO/ABK as independent states before is absorbs them.

If they don't, it is a blatant war of conquest Russia has pursued in the Caucasus.

The moment Russia recognised SO/ABK, they expected to get some additional recognition from allies. Otherwise they wouldn't have done it in the first place in this situation.

Russia didn't get anything.

So they miscalculated.

The partners in the SCO may like that the Global Rulebook got upset, but if it doesn't expand their own envelope or if it even directly goes against their interests, the result is statements like those above.

Russia thought that they would get backing for the reason alone that they "stood up to the West". That may be popular, but it won't get backing if it limits the other partners.

How many ways can this be written?

 

[Stryker001]

I always thought that Russia could care less about international recognition of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. What Russia doesn't want is isolation and condemnation from even its own allies (which it doesn't have to worry about). The thing about the previous SCO statement was that it was too neutral (ambiguous actually). This neutrality was interpreted (by the Associated Press) to say that even the other members of the SCO disagree with Russia's actions. Of course, you can interpret it this way, but why would Russia approve of a statement that condemns it.

Russia will need a reasonable amount of recognition of SO/ABK as independent states before is absorbs them.

If they don't, it is a blatant war of conquest Russia has pursued in the Caucasus.

The moment Russia recognised SO/ABK, they expected to get some additional recognition from allies. Otherwise they wouldn't have done it in the first place in this situation.

Russia didn't get anything.

So they miscalculated.

The partners in the SCO may like that the Global Rulebook got upset, but if it doesn't expand their own envelope or if it even directly goes against their interests, the result is statements like those above.

Russia thought that they would get backing for the reason alone that they "stood up to the West". That may be popular, but it won't get backing if it limits the other partners.

How many ways can this be written?

The US said that it would use the veto so recognition is useless anyway. The PRC need to exert some control of their breakaway provinces also. It means nothing.

we started the war and the operation has been stopped

So Odessa

Russia has got support from the PRC, the US strategy other than encirclement of the PRC, is to gradually make independent states of Russian territory to gain control of the oil and gas, Chechnya independence, as can be see by the enclaves it is sketchy to say what is Russian ethnic territory and what is an independent state.

 

[merocaine]

The problem the SCO has is precedent, it sets an unnerving precedent for any country with restive minorities. China opposed the Kosavo campaign on pretty much the same grounds.
Sovereignty still means something to them I guess.

 

[LogisticsGuy]

A new article out this morning in The Daily Telegraph from London. The link is
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/29/cnrussia129.xml



Russia may cut off oil flow to the West

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 10:39am BST 29/08/2008

Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.

Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.

Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.

"They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday," claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels.

 

[Grand Danois]

"They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday," claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels.

A high-level business man who just invested in oil futures.

 

[LogisticsGuy]

A high-level business man who just invested in oil futures.

Yea, you do have to wonder how much of this saber rattling is about just that.

 

[Stryker001]

[FONT=&quot]

The problem the SCO has is precedent, it sets an unnerving precedent for any country with restive minorities. China opposed the Kosavo campaign on pretty much the same grounds.
Sovereignty still means something to them I guess.

PRC Operation against the Tibetans have been on going, and they have plans for the Muslim uprising.

[/FONT]

A new article out this morning in The Daily Telegraph from London. The link is
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/29/cnrussia129.xml

Russia may cut off oil flow to the West

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 10:39am BST 29/08/2008

Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.

Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.

Reports have begun to circulate in Moscow that Russian oil companies are under orders from the Kremlin to prepare for a supply cut to Germany and Poland through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. It is believed that executives from lead-producer LUKoil have been put on weekend alert.

"They have been told to be ready to cut off supplies as soon as Monday," claimed a high-level business source, speaking to The Daily Telegraph. Any move would be timed to coincide with an emergency EU summit in Brussels.

The Russia oil and gas field’s reserves are not as large as people believe, hence the aggressive stance in the Arctic. That acquisition will allow Russia to met both domestic and foreign demand for a certain period. If I were the EU nations that rely on energy from Russia would be concerned about my nation’s energy security.

 

[Sampanviking]

A little bit more detial from the summit courtesy os ATOL headliner M K Bhadrakumar.

This is a quote from the Kazakhstan President Nurusultan Nazarbayev, who promised Medvedev full Kazak support at a side meeting in Dunshanbe.

In a statement to Medvedev he said:

I am amazed that the West simply ignored the fact that Georgian armed forces attacked the peaceful city of Tskhinvali [in South Ossetia]. Therefore, my assessment is as follows: I think that it originally started with this. And Russia's response could either have been to keep silent or to protect their people and so on. I believe that all subsequent steps taken by Russia have been designed to stop bloodshed of ordinary residents of this long-suffering city. Of course, there are many refugees, many homeless.

Guided by out bilateral agreement on friendship and cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia, we have provided humanitarian aid: 100 tons have already been sent. We will continue to provide assistance together with you.

Of course, there was loss of life on the Georgian side - war is war. The resolution of the conflict with Georgia has now been shifted to some indeterminate time in the future. We have always had good relations with Georgia. Kazakhstan's companies have made substantial investments there. Of course, those that have done this want stability there. The conditions of the plan that you and [President of France Nicolas] Sarkozy drew up must be implemented, but some have begun to disavow certain points in the plan.

However, I think that negotiations will continue and that there will be peace - there is no other alternative. Therefore, Kazakhstan understands all the measures that have been taken, and Kazakhstan supports them. For our part, we will be ready to do everything to ensure that everyone returns to the negotiating table.

Bhradrakumar adds his own observation

Kazakhstan has since stepped out into the thick of the diplomatic sweepstakes and whole-heartedly endorsed the Russian position.
This has become a turning point for Russian diplomacy in the post-Soviet space.

From Moscow's point of view, Nazarbayev's words are worth their weight in gold. Kazakhstan is the richest energy producer in Central Asia and is a regional heavyweight. It borders China. The entire US regional strategy in Central Asia ultimately aims at replacing Russia and China as Kazakhstan's number one partner. American oil majors began making a beeline to Kazakhstan immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 - including Chevron, with which US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was associated.

The full article is available on this link:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag02.html

 

[Pro'forma]

From the news: Who is saying peace has to do anything today with
the caucasian military area of each countries. Has it passed legislation of rusia and geogia to get a new military base for rusia in the ossetian territory.

Who, in the world of independent military units as are called current states of legislative statements, is saying truly it is allowed to drive through, over the borders and begin a new base for military ?

This indecision of peace is no peace anymore. Looks like misusing.

 

[eaf-f16]

Russia will need a reasonable amount of recognition of SO/ABK as independent states before is absorbs them.

If they don't, it is a blatant war of conquest Russia has pursued in the Caucasus.

The moment Russia recognised SO/ABK, they expected to get some additional recognition from allies. Otherwise they wouldn't have done it in the first place in this situation.

Russia didn't get anything.

So they miscalculated.

The partners in the SCO may like that the Global Rulebook got upset, but if it doesn't expand their own envelope or if it even directly goes against their interests, the result is statements like those above.

Russia thought that they would get backing for the reason alone that they "stood up to the West". That may be popular, but it won't get backing if it limits the other partners.

How many ways can this be written?

How many ways can what be written?

I'm interested to know why you believe that Russia intends to annex S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. This sounds like some Georgian conspiracy theory to me.

What we know for sure is that Georgia is never going to get back Abkhazia and S.Ossetia because of its moves to retake them by force and its blatant violations of previous agreements. Any type of serious punishment against Russia would be a miscalculation on the West's part. Especially considering it is over some random backwater like Georgia.

IMO, all Russia wants is to go about this without any serious consequences (international isolation). Recognition of Abkhazia and S.Ossetia by other states would help Russia from this aspect only. China and other major states with their own separatist problems are not going to condemn Russia's actions or publicly disagree with them but they aren't going to demonstrate their hypocrisy by cheering on Abkhazia and S.Ossetia. Russia already knew this from the beginning so their was no miscalculation.

I think Russia was surprised over the West's reaction, though.

 

[Grand Danois]

How many ways can what be written?

I'm interested to know why you believe that Russia intends to annex S.Ossetia and Abkhazia. This sounds like some Georgian conspiracy theory to me.

First allow me to differentiate the situation wrt SO & ABK. SO is the slice that Russia may absorb, however, ABK has now become part of the same complex wrt recognition.

IMV you can make a viable state out of ABK but not SO, thus the only path forward for SO is to join Russia. It cannot do so legally without being an independent state before joining, elst it be an annexation.

Which is why the Russian controlled leadership of SO is declaring left right and center that it will be joining Russia shortly (few years) after gaining independence. So what does Putin expect will happen?

And SO is a nice piece of strategic real estate for Russia. Georgia is imposssible to defend without SO. From SO Russia can cut Georgia in an afternoon via Gori. With SO in Georgian hands, the Georgians need only manage the Roki tunnel.

Lastly, the progress of events suggest the Russians are looking for permanency, freeze the situation how they want it; which is why they recognised SO - to prevent the situation to become politically fluid again. They seek permanent gains, which lead directly to absorbing SO.

ABK is different, but now slotted into the same equation wrt recognition as seen from an international perspective (as opposed to domestic).

So Russia counted on substantial support and went for it though it could lose face if it didn't materialise.

IMO, all Russia wants is to go about this without any serious consequences (international isolation). Recognition of Abkhazia and S.Ossetia by other states would help Russia from this aspect only. China and other major states with their own separatist problems are not going to condemn Russia's actions or publicly disagree with them but they aren't going to demonstrate their hypocrisy by cheering on Abkhazia and S.Ossetia. Russia already knew this from the beginning so their was no miscalculation.

I think Russia was surprised over the West's reaction, though.

Russia would have gotten away with it if it had followed Zarkozys plan. The West was in a disarray wrt how to respond. That Russia ignored it, decided Western reaction.

That is an apparent miscalculation.

The next thing is that not only entered Georgia proper, but stayed there; this gave sustainment and momentum to a solidifying Western stance.

Tactical error.

Russia went for the full grabs when recognising independence.

Russia could have won a political, prestige and military victory if the goals where only to kick Georgia out of SO and left the West in disarray.

But they went the full monty. Because they're interested in something else. And that project ran into a bit of trouble at the SCO summit. (No, China was never in, but the Stans?)

 

[Feanor]

Belarussian diplomat in Moscow said that recognition from Belorus would come over the next few days.

 

[Gottayo]

Russia is going to absorb S. Ossetia

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state'
Tony Halpin, Moscow

The Kremlin moved swiftly to tighten its grip on Georgia’s breakaway regions today as South Ossetia announced that it would soon become part of Russia.

Russia would open military bases in South Ossetia under an agreement to be signed on Tuesday, Tarzan Kokoity, the province’s deputy speaker of parliament, said.

South Ossetia would also be absorbed into Russia soon so that its people could live in “one united Russian state” with their ethnic kin in North Ossetia.

The announcement came just three days after Russia defied international criticism and recognised South Ossetia and Georgia’s other separatist region of Abkhazia as independent states.

South Ossetia’s leader Eduard Kokoity agreed that it would form part of Russia within “several years” during talks with President Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow, Znaur Gassiyev, the speaker of the region’s parliament, said.

The disclosure will expose Russia to accusations that it is annexing land regarded internationally as part of Georgia. Until now, the Kremlin has insisted that its troops intervened solely to protect South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgian “aggression”.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4635843.ece

 

[Firehorse]

Georgian Navy's Cruel Fate
http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/georgian-navys.html

The video has captured Hamvees.

Ukraine munitions depot burning, villagers evacuated
http://www.google.com/search?source...&rlz=1T4DMUS_enUS232US235&q=Ukraine+munitions

"The writing is on the wall" for Kiev! This looks like/could be arson designed to look like accidental fire.

 

[nevidimka]

What about Abhkazia? Have they announced solid plans of rejoining Russia?

Also why is western countries seem to disregard the S.Ossetians in all these mess? Do they expect the S.Ossetians to live back happily ever after with Saakashvilli?

 

[Feanor]

What about Abhkazia? Have they announced solid plans of rejoining Russia?

Also why is western countries seem to disregard the S.Ossetians in all these mess? Do they expect the S.Ossetians to live back happily ever after with Saakashvilli?

They don't care. SO is a small 3rd world region with no significance and small population. They're essentially considered a casualty of collateral damage, on the road to bringing Georgia in to the west.