Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Chrom]

Except that it is so much more of an issue to China - situation not similar - they're not going to recognize independence.

They're looking to their own strategic interest (and perspective of legitimacy).

As i said, West in last 10 years clearly showed what precedents mean absolutely nothing. Only politic and military power, only strong allies mean something - much as in later 19th century. In that perspective, China may actually recognize S. Ossetia to please Russia and gain russian support for various problems, including Tibet. US is right now hostily to China anyway.

Tibet is VERY different from both S. Ossetia and Abkhazia as it is firmly controlled by Chinese power. If China somehow becomes so weak what it couldnt hold Tibet - no "precedents" will help it.

Look at Chechnya. Perfect example. Russia wasnt afraid to recognize S. Ossetia, although Chechnya have much more real chances to gain Independence than Tibet.

Actually, some goes with Taiwan. As long as China sufficiently strong - noone will recognize it. Once China becomes weak - noone will care about precedents.

 

[Grand Danois]

As i said, West in last 10 years clearly showed what precedents mean absolutely nothing. Only politic and military power, only strong allies mean something - much as in later 19th century. In that perspective, China may actually recognize S. Ossetia to please Russia and gain russian support for various problems, including Tibet. US is right now hostily to China anyway.

Tibet is VERY different from both S. Ossetia and Abkhazia as it is firmly controlled by Chinese power. If China somehow becomes so weak what it couldnt hold Tibet - no "precedents" will help it.

Look at Chechnya. Perfect example. Russia wasnt afraid to recognize S. Ossetia, although Chechnya have much more real chances to gain Independence than Tibet.

Actually, some goes with Taiwan. As long as China sufficiently strong - noone will recognize it. Once China becomes weak - noone will care about precedents.

Nonetheless, China, with its legalistic outlook, and with far more at stake, is not going to recognise SO and ABK.

It's not going to give up "its moral case".

Cheers

 

[Chrom]

W. European countries aren't going to fight wars with each other over their borders, or provide arms & support to anyone seeking to change each others borders by force, & even the maddest independence groups know that. The number of ETA & the IRA supporters under arms can probably be counted on your fingers & toes. They're a criminal problem nowadays, & one that's much less damaging than normal, non-political crime. How is that worse?

They dont fight now, true. But Kosovo example gave new impulse for these separatist movements. It would be much harder for GB to explain why Ireland or Scotland coudnt gain independence. And it could lead to new escalation.

Look at Catalunya, Galicia, Scotland, Wales, Trentino, Aosta, Friesland, Schleswig/Slesvig (I have relatives there, members of a cross-border minority) - wherever. Nobody fights. They talk. Sometimes intemperately, & sometimes far too much, but it's infinitely better than killing people. They stand for election. They vote. Minorities can use their own languages in official transactions, their identities are respected, they have TV channels (officially subsidised) in their own languages, they get elected to parliament. If enough people want it, they get local self-government. Again, how is that worse?

Yup. That is why EU should also try to pursue same standards in other countries like Georgia. NOONE should fight there. IF S.Ossetia and Abkhazia were de-facto independent, and dont want to join Georgia without bloody fight - let them be independent. After all, EU mocked Russia for Chechnya cause all these years..

Either way, what i try to stress - there are no clear international standards or laws here. Each case is unique, each case is solved based on political, military, cultural balance and relations. I wish it would be different - but it isnt. Rule of Might ;(

 

[Chrom]

Nonetheless, China, with its legalistic outlook, and with far more at stake, is not going to recognise SO and ABK.

It's not going to give up "its moral case".

Cheers

It is not clear. There is no sense to be the only one with "legal" outlook when everyone else dont. China right now is not strong enough to be unique here, so probably it will join the club of countries (US, Russia, EU to name the few) with less "legalistic outlook" ;p

 

[Grand Danois]

Yup. That is why EU should also try to pursue same standards in other countries like Georgia. NOONE should fight there. IF S.Ossetia and Abkhazia were de-facto independent, and dont want to join Georgia without bloody fight - let them be independent. After all, EU mocked Russia for Chechnya cause all these years..

It's always what the others do, eh?

Anyhow, EU wasn't behind Sakashviilis military move. EU is quite happy by internationalizing conflicts and waiting them out.

 

[Firehorse]

Waters heating up in Black Sea
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=151342&bolum=102

IMO, they have a point- if it was just to help refugees in Georgia, there is no need to send ships.
Geopolitical Diary: The Black Sea and Reviving the Cold War
http://finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18626&Itemid=19

Both Russia and Germany are on the rise. Each is trying to increase its power in the world. Germany is conquering the Balkans, and Russia now has control of Georgia. As these powers compete against each other, watch for a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact to emerge. It may be that dealings are already underway to conclude such an agreement.
The Caucasus is Russia’s Balkans. In Europe, control of the Balkans was imperative for the eastward expansion of the German-dominated European Union. For similar strategic reasons, just as Germany ruthlessly went after the Balkans, watch for Russia to ruthlessly consolidate its imperialist goals in the Caucasus.
http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=5455.0.108.0

And agree with that assertion- from now on, NATO will be allowed to expand only over "Russia's body"!

Russian General Staff: Tbilisi attempted to capture Abkhazia via South Ossetia
http://www.regnum.ru/english/1046557.html

This is a stretch- they don't have a common border!
http://www.eurasianet.org/resource/georgia/images/georgia_map.jpg

 

[Chrom]

It's always what the others do, eh?

Anyhow, EU wasn't behind Sakashviilis military move. EU is quite happy by internationalizing conflicts and waiting them out.

I very much agree with that. Sakashviili (and most ex-Warpac countries) is mainly US (NOT EU!!) pupp.. err, follower. This is conflict of interests between "old" Europe and US, and a source of major tensions both inside EU and between EU - US.

Actually, i'm pretty sure Russia will be happy to allow EU (NOT NATO!!!) peace keepers in Georgia. But it is not in US interests, and for EU possible gain in Caucasus influence will not worth yet another confrontation with US. So most likely only EU observers will be send.

 

[eaf-f16]

Syria will most likely recognize them. But Iran is taking a surprisingly neutral approach to this for some reason unknown to me. So, if anyone with knowledge would care to explain to me what may be the reasons behind this I'm all ears (maybe because Georgia is pretty close to home?). But I'm definitely expecting to see a surprising amount of Latin American countries recognizing Abkhazia and S.Ossetia.

I doubt China will recognize their independence. Sino-American relations are actually going pretty smooth right now and the US freeze of arms to Taiwan shows that the US listens to the PRC's concerns (the freeze is pretty significant and I wouldn't underestimate the value of such a move). I doubt China will risk this by recognizing Abkhazia and S.Ossetia. And recognition of these two entities while engaging in talks with Taiwan (that have so far gone pretty well) would send mixed messages and demonstrate hypocrisy. Also take into account that the Beijing Olympics just ended and any bad press China gets may offset PR gains China made during the spectacular Olympic games.

 

[ASFC]

The para-olympics are still ongoing-China is still in the worlds spotlight, so I don't expect them to recognise S.Ossetia or Abkhazia. Also I doubt they will want to give hope to Tibet or Taiwan either.

It is also interesting to note that the US aren't going to deliver aid to Poti now either-maybe wanting to avoid confrontation with Russian Forces on the ground?

 

[Feanor]

The U.S. instead opted to deliver the aid to Batumi instead. As for recognition by other countries, we'll have to wait and see. I expect no more then Cuba, Belarus, and Venezuela.

 

[Firehorse]

Their "independence" is just a legal step to get absorbed by the Russian Federation. They aired this desire for some time now. So, it's a mute point who else is going to "recognize" them!
As for NATO ships coming to Poti, if they persist, the Russians will insist on inspecting them for military cargo 1st. I don't think the prospect of being bottled/blown up or captured inport by the Naval Spetsnaz is worth it!

 

[Feanor]

From what I understand Russian forces have now left Poti. Also the ships in question are military ships themselves, and if they chose to land by force, there would be little that the Russian forces which held Poti could do.

 

[Firehorse]

Russia Says to Inspect Cargo at Georgian Port
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=313134

Right on the money! If they want to fight their way to Poti past RFN, we'll have some busy time here covering it!

Russia cruiser to test weapons in crowded Black Sea
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=313589

Tense stand-off in disputed Georgia village
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=313314

 

[weasel1962]

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[weasel1962]

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[Feanor]

65 MBTs have been captured, and who knows how many destroyed. 15 BMP-2's have been captured, and again many more probably destroyed.

 

[fantasma]

Can we have some info about naval assets of Russia that belong to the Balck Sea fleet numbers and quality? Yesterday NATO had some 10 naval boats over the coasts of Georgia and other 8 have passed the Bosporus heading to the region. Is there a possibility to have a spark there that may lite a fire between NATO ships and Russian Armada?
The other comment i d like to make is a political one. We all know that the case of the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are quite similar with the case of Kossovo and Serbia. Who was the fool side that decided to recognise inspite the UN decisions first the independence of this State? Was it the US and its suspected allies such as Britain etc...with many western and European States even now to be cautious to this developement.
US took under her protection Kossovo and proclaimed and forced chances of its international recognition defying international Law and today when Russia follows also an unlawful way to protect her interests in the Caucasus protecting these two minor provinces of Georgia and recognising them as independent US and her allies, Britain at most the others were more cautious -with the exception of ex-eastern allies of USSR Poland Lithuania etc..- are shouting and are outrageus cause Russia have followed their unlawful policy over Kossovo. How hypocrites..
Serbia invaded in Kossovo her province to take back control over its province and was accused for genocide. Georgia FIRST invaded in her 15 yr breakaway province South Ossetia 70.000 population and caused over 2000 deaths and 10ths thousands of refugees..Is it or not a genocide?
The point is that foreign policy and its interests make such a hypocrites and dirty the leaders throughout the so called civilized world. The blood of Albanians for some was more valuable than the Serbs and the opposite and for some the blood of the South Ossetians is more valuable than the Georgian blood. Hypocritism lies from all sides in the name of their NATIONAL INTERESTS Russian either American in that case. And in the specific case the word INTEREST has a label: OIL and PIPELINES..Human blood is priceless but till now mankind is stuck on the model that OIL is more valuable than human blood

 

[weasel1962]

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[Feanor]

It's not past thanksgiving in the US. Thanksgiving is in November iirc. So this years turkey season is coming up pretty soon.

The real issue is that the political fallout is starting to look like it will bury Russia. Georgia is on the verge of breaking all diplomatic relations with Russia. I wonder what that will do for the thousands of Georgian migrant workers that get their paycheck in Russia to feed their families in Georgia. France said that Russian actions place Russia outside of international law. Italy, Serbia, Norway, and Hungary all said they regret the Russian decision. However it appears that the SCO is preparing a joint statement on the issue of "Georgian aggression" at the upcoming summit according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It's not likely to be recognition but more in the area of general support for Russian actions.

The Moscow missile cruiser, which left for "training" earlier has now arrived in Abkhazian territorial waters at the head of a small squadron of ships with the purpose of protecting Abkhazia from the sea. The ships included several troop transports, according to lenta.ru

And the Russian stock market is continuing to drop, it has lost around 10% total as a result of the war and the general instability.

 

[weasel1962]

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