War Against ISIS

[Ranger25]

Reports of ISIS shelling of Turkih camp in Iraq leaves 70 dead

Initial report of an ISIS mortar strike in the camp the Tukish Army is using in Northern Iraq to train Kurdosh rebels has been hit by an mortar barrage. Initial report of up,to 70 KIA/WIa

Like I said, initial, uncomfirmed report


https://www.rt.com/news/326138-turkish-troops-isis-attack/

 

[Feanor]

Talks between Kerry and both Lavrov and Putin seem to have resulted in a few minor agreements i.e. to draw up a list of terrorist organizations, to assist the UN in setting up a representative delegation from the Syrian opposition, and both sides to attend a meeting of the International Syria Support Group in New York on Dec. 18, but no major move on either sides strategic position, as expected.

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/kerrys-trip-moscow-yields-little-progress

Kerry said he agreed with Putin that Syria must hold elections and that the Syrian people must themselves decide the future of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. This is a slight but notable shift from the United States' earlier insistence that al Assad should not play a role in Syria's political transition.

Yeah, there are two key points Russia has been trying to push. One is the list of terrorist groups. They want to de-legitimize most of the rebels, based on their behavior by labeling them as terrorists. Though, to be honest, the label is pretty accurate. The second is that Syrian government is an internal matter. Meaning the Syrians get to decide it (theoretically through elections and democracy, but practically in whatever manner of internal deal making they resort to.

 

[Feanor]

Feanor I wanted to just thank you for providing this information, much of which is not in the mainstream media. Great job.

Let's all hope that Turkish/Russian relations was on the agenda in the latest meeting with Kerry/Lavrov.

No problem. And I would be surprised to hear it was. Outside some vague statements about deescalation, what can those two do about it?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Info that the US is pulling 12 F-15s out of Turkey. Seems to be legit, other news sources are running the same story.

Ð¡Ð¨Ð Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ñ - СШРотозвали группу иÑтребителей F-15 Ñ Ñ‚ÑƒÑ€ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ авиабазы - zn.ua

Joe Biden says Turkey needs to withdraw troops from Iraq.

Байден указал на необходимоÑÑ‚ÑŒ вывода турецких войÑк из Ирака: Политика: Мир: Lenta.ru

Italy declines to join the anti-ISIS coalition.

Ð˜Ñ‚Ð°Ð»Ð¸Ñ Ð¾Ñ‚ÐºÐ°Ð·Ñ‹Ð²Ð°ÐµÑ‚ÑÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ñылать Ñвои ВВС в Сирию, неÑÐ¼Ð¾Ñ‚Ñ€Ñ Ð½Ð° обещание, данное ФрануÑа Олланду - bmpd

New images out of Hmeimeem, note on one of them we can see four TELs for the S-400.

ÐБ Хмеймим, начало Ð´ÐµÐºÐ°Ð±Ñ€Ñ 2015 - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russia says they're working with several opposition groups against ISIS. They list Ganim, Lions of the Desert, and Kalamun, as moderate opposition who they've been supporting with air strikes.

Промежуточные итоги роÑÑийÑкой военной операции в Сирии - bmpd

An interesting chart of the Syrian express for the first half of December. 10 transport and support ships passed the straits northward, and 4 southward. If anyone wants the breakdown by ship names and dates, I can translate.

Трудовые будни из жизни "СирийÑкого ÑкÑпреÑÑа" - bmpd

Russia denies that 27 of their ships are held by Turkey, and Turkish port authorities seem to back the denial. However, no word on the 8 Turkish ships allegedly detained by Russia. A note, they say that some ships are passing through "normal procedures". What this means in practice is unclear.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìèíòðàíñ ÐÔ îïðîâåðã èíôîðìàöèþ î çàäåðæàíèè Òóðöèåé 27 ðîññèéñêèõ ñóäîâ

EDIT: Some interesting material on the Tu-22M3 long range strikes.

http://charly015.blogspot.com/2015/12/los-ataques-de-los-tu-22m3-en-siria.html

 

[swerve]

Italy declines to join the anti-ISIS coalition.

Weelll . . . not really. Italy already has about 750 soldiers in Iraq, e.g. training Kurds, & is sending another 450 or so to guard a dam near Mosul while it's repaired. Both training Kurds & guarding that dam are specifically anti-Daesh. The military threat to the dam & the people who will be working on it (including Italians) comes from Daesh.

Italy's decided not to join in the bombing, is all.

 

[Feanor]

Weelll . . . not really. Italy already has about 750 soldiers in Iraq, e.g. training Kurds, & is sending another 450 or so to guard a dam near Mosul while it's repaired. Both training Kurds & guarding that dam are specifically anti-Daesh. The military threat to the dam & the people who will be working on it (including Italians) comes from Daesh.

Italy's decided not to join in the bombing, is all.

Thanks for the correction, and I do recall myself posting about Italy increasing their training mission. Do they have any combat elements?

EDIT: Also are they officially part of the coalition?

 

[swerve]

I'm not sure there is such a thing as being 'officially part of the coalition'. It looks like an ad hoc arrangement to me.

The Italians are contributing to activities consistent with the proclaimed anti-Daesh aims, some of them the same activities (e.g. helping Kurds) as others, & I'm sure they're communicating & co-operating with the US, French, British, German, etc. forces in the area. I think that's enough to qualify.

 

[Hone C]

Update.

Info that the US is pulling 12 F-15s out of Turkey. Seems to be legit, other news sources are running the same story.

Ð¡Ð¨Ð Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ñ - СШРотозвали группу иÑтребителей F-15 Ñ Ñ‚ÑƒÑ€ÐµÑ†ÐºÐ¾Ð¹ авиабазы - zn.ua

Seems as though the Russian-Turkish tensions are having an impact on other coalition members airstrikes within Syria.

According to Bloomberg the U.S. Air Force has halted manned aerial missions inside a section of northern Syria known as the Azaz corridor, quoting anonymous White House officials. The same sources claim a SA-17 has been locking onto U.S. aircraft in the area, possibly trying to PID Turkish aircraft. Kerry reportedly discussed the issue with Putin in the recent meeting.

New Russian Air Defenses in Syria Keep U.S. Grounded - Bloomberg View

The RAF has apparently not hit any targets in Syria during the last 10 days either, although this is being put down to target acquisition rather than fear of air defences.

 

[Feanor]

Seems as though the Russian-Turkish tensions are having an impact on other coalition members airstrikes within Syria.

According to Bloomberg the U.S. Air Force has halted manned aerial missions inside a section of northern Syria known as the Azaz corridor, quoting anonymous White House officials. The same sources claim a SA-17 has been locking onto U.S. aircraft in the area, possibly trying to PID Turkish aircraft. Kerry reportedly discussed the issue with Putin in the recent meeting.

New Russian Air Defenses in Syria Keep U.S. Grounded - Bloomberg View

The RAF has apparently not hit any targets in Syria during the last 10 days either, although this is being put down to target acquisition rather than fear of air defences.

Interesting but not surprising. The Azaz corridor is a strip of territory between the Kurds in the west and ISIS in the east. It's held by various rebel groups including the FSA and serves as a lifeline for Turkish military aid to go to the rebels. It's fall would likely spell defeat for the rebels in the Aleppo area, because it's a strategic supply route.

 

[Hone C]

Interesting but not surprising. The Azaz corridor is a strip of territory between the Kurds in the west and ISIS in the east. It's held by various rebel groups including the FSA and serves as a lifeline for Turkish military aid to go to the rebels. It's fall would likely spell defeat for the rebels in the Aleppo area, because it's a strategic supply route.

It's also the area that Turkey has been pushing for NATO to establish a no-fly zone and a 'safe zone' for some time now.

Syrian safe zone: US relents to Turkish demands after border crisis grows | World news | The Guardian

As well as containing the MSRs for the rebels, having the region controlled by pro Turkish forces could mitigate the refugee problems within Turkey and also provide Turkey with a physical foothold in northern Syria to ensure that the Kurds cannot create a viable autonomous state (a long term threat but of more immediate importance now given the current dramas at home with the PKK).

Having the proposed no fly zone now a no fly area for NATO aircraft must be quite galling for Erdogan. The USAF undoubtedly has the SEAD capabilities to mitigate the threat but the escalation this would entail is not something anyone wants at this point.

 

[gazzzwp]

Seems as though the Russian-Turkish tensions are having an impact on other coalition members airstrikes within Syria.

According to Bloomberg the U.S. Air Force has halted manned aerial missions inside a section of northern Syria known as the Azaz corridor, quoting anonymous White House officials. The same sources claim a SA-17 has been locking onto U.S. aircraft in the area, possibly trying to PID Turkish aircraft. Kerry reportedly discussed the issue with Putin in the recent meeting.

New Russian Air Defenses in Syria Keep U.S. Grounded - Bloomberg View

The RAF has apparently not hit any targets in Syria during the last 10 days either, although this is being put down to target acquisition rather than fear of air defences.

So back when this all began and the Russian General stormed into the US Embassy in Iraq to demand the US ground their jets........

Have Russia achieved their objectives with missile and radar systems? How does a radar system tell a US from a Turkish F16?

Another humiliation for the US?

Could one strategy be for the US to respond symmetrically? Install their own systems and create a no fly zone? Or would this be the ideal time to unwrap the F22's and see how they cope in that environment?

What other options does the US have?

 

[Feanor]

So back when this all began and the Russian General stormed into the US Embassy in Iraq to demand the US ground their jets........

Have Russia achieved their objectives with missile and radar systems? How does a radar system tell a US from a Turkish F16?

Another humiliation for the US?

Could one strategy be for the US to respond symmetrically? Install their own systems and create a no fly zone? Or would this be the ideal time to unwrap the F22's and see how they cope in that environment?

What other options does the US have?

It's a dangerous game, especially when you consider that the Buk-M2E in question is Syrian. The operators might be Russian, or not. Are they even trying to tell Turkish jets apart from US ones, or is the intent merely to "nudge" the coalition away from that area, letting the corridor fall, and closing the supply route? Presumably at this point there aren't any Turkish jets in that area, since they no longer fly over Syria.

Actually it's kind of smart, in a dangerous and potentially incendiary way. The system is Syrian, definitely not Russian, and Russia has continuously maintained that the entire coalition operation is illegal because they do not have UN authorization or permission from the "legitimate" (read Assad) government of Syria. Strictly speaking Syria is within their rights to shoot down any tresspasser. And given the messy situation, deploying the system there causes the US and others to suspend or at least restrict operations over that area to avoid a nasty escalation, with Russian assets physically in theater, including long range surface to air.

I wonder what the NATO response will be if a Turkish F-16 decide to enter Syrian airspace and gets shot down by the Syrians (or "Syrians")...

 

[KiwiRob]

I wonder what the NATO response will be if a Turkish F-16 decide to enter Syrian airspace and gets shot down by the Syrians (or "Syrians")...

There can't be a response, Turkeys actions saw to that.

 

[Hone C]

There can't be a response, Turkeys actions saw to that.

There may have to be, that's what makes this such a dangerous situation. If NATO is seen as being too afraid of the consequences of a response to such an action then NATO's credibility will have been dealt a major blow, which would play to Russia's obvious advantage in her 'near abroad.'

What other options does the US have?

The US could certainly push back against Russia in Syria, but has a wide range of options available outside the region, such as putting pressure on Europe to extend sanctions, increased military support for Kiev, etc.

 

[gazzzwp]

There may have to be, that's what makes this such a dangerous situation. If NATO is seen as being too afraid of the consequences of a response to such an action then NATO's credibility will have been dealt a major blow, which would play to Russia's obvious advantage in her 'near abroad.'





The US could certainly push back against Russia in Syria, but has a wide range of options available outside the region, such as putting pressure on Europe to extend sanctions, increased military support for Kiev, etc.

You know it wouldn't surprise me if the Russian jets dancing around Turkey's border a month ago was deliberate in order to provoke the desired response.

It just seems more than a coincidence that Russia is now building an air exclusion zone to kick out the coalition. It wouldn't surprise me if they try and greatly extend it.

 

[Hone C]

You know it wouldn't surprise me if the Russian jets dancing around Turkey's border a month ago was deliberate in order to provoke the desired response.

Possibly. If so it's a dangerous game to play, given that it could result in consequences in regions such as Eastern Europe and Central Asia far more vital to Russian security.

Russia does appear to have been successful in forcing strategic concessions that protect the Assad regime so far though. A useful patron to have, as I'm sure the Eurasian Union members have been reminded.

It just seems more than a coincidence that Russia is now building an air exclusion zone to kick out the coalition. It wouldn't surprise me if they try and greatly extend it.

Labelling it an air exclusion zone is probably overstating it. They have impeded NATO air activity by raising the risk of an incident and escalation. Turkey, the USAF (and possibly others) are avoiding this outcome by ceasing activity in the Azaz corridor entirely (although the US is presumably still operating UAVs there). This minimises the risk of a lose-lose situation such as a NATO aircraft being shot down over Syria, but at the cost of limiting air support for the rebels in the area.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

ISIS has launched the largest attacks in Iraq in months, but has made no gains, all the attacks being defeated.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: NYT ñîîáùàåò î ñàìîé êðóïíîé àòàêå "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà" â Èðàêå çà ïÿòü ìåñÿöåâ


A well known (in certain circles) Russian blogger dragonfist, posted his map of the situation in Syria.

КÐРТРСИРИИ (КÐРТРОБСТÐÐОВКИ Ð’ СИРИЙСКОЙ ÐРÐБСКОЙ РЕСПУБЛИКЕ ÐÐ 18 ДЕКÐБРЯ 2015 г.) - dragon_first_1

The black box from the Su-24 is being decoded right now, in the presence of US citizens, president and vice-president of something called International Association for Investigation of Aviation Incidents. They're named as Del Grandio and Ronald Schlidt. Personally I don't know who they are, and I'm not familiar with the organization. Anyone know?

Ð’Ñкрытие черного Ñщика - Colonel Cassad

Another look at the VVS Il-76 with a Syrian flag on it's tail.

Ил-76 ВВС превратили в Ñирийца - Ðвиаголоволомки

On Dec 15th Russia flew 59 sorties striking 212 targets in Syria.

Продолжение дейÑтвий ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии - bmpd

Turkish troops and armored vehicles entered the town of Silopi in their fight against the RPK.

Ð¢ÑƒÑ€Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð²Ð²ÐµÐ»Ð° бронетехнику и Ñпецназ в наÑеленный пункт Силопи провинции Ширнак | Военный информатор

A Syrian L-39 is the first aircraft that returns to Kuweiris. It's unclear whether this is symbolic or others intend to follow, but they have been securing the area around the base, rather then advancing in a single direction, which suggests an intent to secure the base from another attack, or even shellings.

Ð‘Ð¾ÐµÐ²Ð°Ñ Ð°Ð²Ð¸Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ñнова вернулаÑÑŒ на оÑвобожденную ÑирийÑкую авиабазу в КувейриÑе | Военный информатор

Czech BMP-1s are delivered to Iraq.

Ð’ Ирак доÑтавили партию чешÑких боевых машин пехоты BVP-1 | Военный информатор

Turkey accuses Russia of supplying UAVs to the RPK, although the UAV in question is of Chinese manufacture and commercially available.

Турецкие военные обвинÑÑŽÑ‚ РоÑÑию в поÑтавках беÑпилотных аппаратов террориÑтам из РПК | Военный информатор

The German BND intelligence agency resumes contact with Syrian intelligence services. There is information that they're setting up a special channel for coordination incase a German Tornado is shot down over Syria.

A reminder, Syrian special forces and Hezbollah fighters played a central role in the recovery of the Russian navigator from the downed Su-24, as well as the rescue of the SAR team from the Mi-8.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðàçâåäêà ÔÐà âîçîáíîâèëà ñîòðóäíè÷åñòâî ñ ñèðèéñêèìè ñïåöñëóæáàìè

 

[Feanor]

You know it wouldn't surprise me if the Russian jets dancing around Turkey's border a month ago was deliberate in order to provoke the desired response.

It just seems more than a coincidence that Russia is now building an air exclusion zone to kick out the coalition. It wouldn't surprise me if they try and greatly extend it.

I doubt it. Normal airspace incursions don't involve a shoot down. Pretty much not ever. If Turkey wanted to avoid the escalation all they had to do was follow accepted international behavior. Intercept the intruder and escort them out of their airspace. Even according to the Turks, the entire violation lasted 17 seconds, and a quick look at the distance in question and minimal speeds for an Su-24 tells us that it was even less then that. Over several seconds of airspace violation, to shoot someone down, is unjustifiably aggressive.

Edrogan himself, when a Turkish F-4 was shot down by Syrians over a small violation, said that minor violations like that can never be cause for a shoot down. He was correct. The Syrians likely did it because the plane was a recon variant, and they were already in a civil war trying to put down rebels, who sourced arms through Turkey among other places.

To then say that Russia tried to provoke the shoot down is just plain silly. I know you're scared to death of big bad Russia, but please consider the context of the events you're talking about.

It would be another story of Russian spy planes intentionally spent considerable time in Turkish airspace.

There can't be a response, Turkeys actions saw to that.

There certainly could be a response. NATO is quite sophisticated, especially the USAF. They could start an all out bombing campaign, and then do their best to not hit Russian assets. There's a good chance they would even pull it off (the not hitting Russian assets part). All Putin could do in response to that is make angry statements, and try for asymmetric response in other areas. However, at the end of the day the problem is getting agreement for an action of that sort, even in the US government alone, nevermind the Europeans. And that's where the real issue lies. Not in their inability to respond but their profound unwillingness. And of course the fact that the whole thing would just make a bad situation worse.

 

[Humming Drone]

Here's something about Russia's methods:

Up to Nine Russian Contractors Die in Syria, Experts Say - WSJ

You can google the title (Up to Nine Russian Contractors Die in Syria, Experts Say) to view the article.

 

[Toblerone]

Damascus suburb hit by ‘Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah leader’
https://www.rt.com/news/326564-damascus-explosion-jaramana-reports/

Do the israelis ever miss their targets? 3

Anyway, it will be interesting to learn about the technicalities of this strike. Was it just a cruise missile strike? Air-launched or not? How far away is this point from the S400 battery?