War Against ISIS

[Toblerone]

It was an obvious mistake from the start, like the su-24 downing. More political capital burnt imo.

EDIT: Is it true that the russians are supporting FSA now with airstrikes and equipment?! Did they strike a deal or something?

Going by the quotes here:
http://tass.ru/en/defense/843794

Oh I see Feanor already mentioned it. This could be a game changer.

 

[swerve]

On another note, Al Jazeera reported on their 10:00GMT 14 Dec 15 bulletin that the Turks had agreed to withdraw their forces from Mosul and return them to Turkey. The Turks claim it is a redeployment but the Peshmerga said that it was a large troop movement. Apparently Turkish military advisors will remain with the Peshmerga.

Exaggeration, I think.

Firstly, there was exaggeration of Turkish troop movements into Iraq. A battalion or so, reinforcing (& temporarily, according to the Turkish government) a couple of hundred already there providing training, was turned into an invading armoured brigade or more in some press reports.

Now we have "They're all pulling out!", when other reports, from sober outlets, have the numbers reverting to roughly what they were before.

Turkish news management has been terrible, but it looks as if they've done more or less what they said all along they were intending to. It's been bad public relations at least in part because that was widely disbelieved, so it's now perceived as if they've backed down.

 

[Feanor]

Exaggeration, I think.

Firstly, there was exaggeration of Turkish troop movements into Iraq. A battalion or so, reinforcing (& temporarily, according to the Turkish government) a couple of hundred already there providing training, was turned into an invading armoured brigade or more in some press reports.

Now we have "They're all pulling out!", when other reports, from sober outlets, have the numbers reverting to roughly what they were before.

Turkish news management has been terrible, but it looks as if they've done more or less what they said all along they were intending to. It's been bad public relations at least in part because that was widely disbelieved, so it's now perceived as if they've backed down.

Which likely was the point of the bluster coming from Iraq, threatening economic sanctions, air strikes, war, and UN action.

 

[Hone C]

It was an obvious mistake from the start, like the su-24 downing. More political capital burnt imo.

EDIT: Is it true that the russians are supporting FSA now with airstrikes and equipment?! Did they strike a deal or something?

Going by the quotes here:
TASS: Military & Defense - Russian General Staff : Russian warplanes support Free Syrian Army offensive

Oh I see Feanor already mentioned it. This could be a game changer.

The FSA has denied receiving any support from Russia and claim to be on the receiving end of continuing Russian airstrikes. Some rebels admit to benefiting indirectly from Russian air strikes against the Al Nusra Front, but denied any direct Russian support.

Vladimir Kozhin, Putin's aide for military and technical cooperation, said Russia does not supply the Free Syrian Army with weapons, according to the RIA news agency, contradicting earlier claims by General Valery Gerasimov.

Free Syrian Army rebels deny Russian support | Reuters

IMO the FSA will be a progressively weaker player in the conflict, internally fragmented and struggling to withstand the pressure from both a resurgent Assad regime and more powerful and better funded Islamist groups.

 

[swerve]

Which likely was the point of the bluster coming from Iraq, threatening economic sanctions, air strikes, war, and UN action.

Yeah. The government of Iraq has scored a great propaganda victory, & Erdogan's had a severe PR defeat.

 

[Feanor]

The FSA has denied receiving any support from Russia and claim to be on the receiving end of continuing Russian airstrikes. Some rebels admit to benefiting indirectly from Russian air strikes against the Al Nusra Front, but denied any direct Russian support.

Vladimir Kozhin, Putin's aide for military and technical cooperation, said Russia does not supply the Free Syrian Army with weapons, according to the RIA news agency, contradicting earlier claims by General Valery Gerasimov.

Free Syrian Army rebels deny Russian support | Reuters

IMO the FSA will be a progressively weaker player in the conflict, internally fragmented and struggling to withstand the pressure from both a resurgent Assad regime and more powerful and better funded Islamist groups.

It's the fragmentation part that makes me wonder. Is it possible that FSA splinter groups are being integrated into pro-regime militias, and this is being presented as "cooperation with the opposition"? Given the current state of affairs, is there still a single FSA left, is there someone who can speak for all, or at least for an overwhelming majority?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Iraqi police shot down an ISIS UAV.

Islamic State unmanned aerial vehicle shot down in Iraq | Armament Research Services

Apparently ISIS has been using children's toys to conceal explosives, both to transport and place IEDs.

Islamic State employs improvised explosive devices concealed within toys in Iraq | Armament Research Services

Syrian 240mm towed mortars are back in action, using likely newly supplied rocket-assisted cluster munitions.

Возвращение ÑирийÑкой 240-мм артиллерии - Юрий ЛÑмин

Syrians report excellent results from using their newly acquired T-90s, in clearing seven villages and surrounding several cities. However these seem like compliments coming too soon to reflect real experience. And the lack of transparency in the numbers they got, and the deployment, it's hard to judge. Undoubtedly any new tanks are good for Syria, with even the baseline T-90s being the most modern in the Syrian arsenal (on a sidenote Syrian T-72S with the TURMS-T upgrade are actually superior in optics and FCS while inferior in protection levels).

Сирийцы в воÑторге от Т-90 поÑле Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð¼ÐµÐ½ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ñ… в южном Ðлеппо

Financial times reports that ISIS profits from taxes and racketeering likely rival or exceed their oil profits.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: FT: "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" çàðàáàòûâàåò íà íàëîãàõ è ðýêåòå íå ìåíüøå, ÷åì íà íåôòè

An alleged interview with someone who hints at being SpN, and talks about his action in Syria, revealing that Russian units there took part in firefights, and clearing the area around Hmeimeem prior to setting up the base there. There are several options. This could be a real interview, a controlled leak of real material (there are no outlandish claims made) or total bs. No way to check at this point.

Как бы интервью как бы руÑÑкого Ñолдата о как бы его учаÑтии как бы в Сирии - Берлога Бронемедведа

Lavrov and Kerry met in Moscow to discuss Syria and Ukraine, and the noise coming out of it is optimistic, talking about potential for cooperation. It remains to be seen whether something substantive will come of this.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êåððè íà ïåðåãîâîðàõ ñ Ëàâðîâûì â Ìîñêâå çàÿâèë, ÷òî ÑØÀ è ÐÔ ìîãóò ýôôåêòèâíî ñîòðóäíè÷àòü

Norway found ISIS imagery, and brutal photos and video of execution, in the personal effects of recent immigrants. The finds number in the hundreds.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàñòè Íîðâåãèè îáíàðóæèëè ôîòî îòðåçàííûõ ãîëîâ è ñèìâîëèêó ÈÃ â òåëåôîíàõ áåæåíöåâ, óòâåðæäàåò ïðåññà

 

[Hone C]

It's the fragmentation part that makes me wonder. Is it possible that FSA splinter groups are being integrated into pro-regime militias, and this is being presented as "cooperation with the opposition"? Given the current state of affairs, is there still a single FSA left, is there someone who can speak for all, or at least for an overwhelming majority?

From what I can gather the senior 'leadership', such as Abdul-Ilah al-Bashir, have basically been side-lined by their sponsors, and whatever support, training or coordination is provided goes directly to favoured lower level commanders rather than through the FSA chain of command. The shift in US focus to the Democratic Forces of Syria has further isolated the group.

I don't think a 'single FSA' has existed for some time. It consists of over 2000 different groups, ranging from village self defence militias to relatively well funded groups of former soldiers. It's entirely possible, in fact probable, that some are cooperating with the government as their local circumstances change.

 

[Muukalainen]

Financial times reports that ISIS profits from taxes and racketeering likely rival or exceed their oil profits.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: FT: "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" çàðàáàòûâàåò íà íàëîãàõ è ðýêåòå íå ìåíüøå, ÷åì íà íåôòè

I am wondering if there is any information on where all of their money is going; clearly, they have a good number of expenses from running a pseudo-nation, but from what I know, they should have a reasonable surplus of cash. Does anyone know or can hypothesize where it is going?

 

[swerve]

They're running a rather large army in proportion to that income.

I'd say that far from having a surplus, they must be scrimping & saving just to keep going.

 

[Toblerone]

Looting banks and stores, selling antiquities, racketeering must be giving low income at this point, after years of civil war.

Lately they also have not overrun any new cities or gotten any equipment from captured stockpiles. At least I don't remember any such success.

And black market oil trade should be stemmed in a big way now. As money runs out there will be defections and split-ups.

 

[GermanHerman]

Coming back to the combat readiness of german assets...

Some planespotters have noted that the two Tornados which left for Syria are actually not RECCE-Tornados but ECR - Versions.

Theoreticly the ECR - Tornado is capable to deploy the RECCE-modul and provide ground reconnaissance but only when updated to ASSTA 3.0 which the german MoD denied to be the case with the two deployed planes.

The official statement of the Luftwaffe is that the planes are there to develop and test methods of air operations (I'm a bit unsure about the translation as it is seems to be a military term " die fliegerischen Verfahren in der Türkei abzustimmen und zu erproben " ) and don't need the Recce Modul for that but are due to be replaced by actual RECCE Tornados in January.

„Operation Counter Daesh“: Erste Tornados für Syrien nicht tauglich : Augen geradeaus

Some people think the ECR - Versions are there to gather radar data from russian S-300 and S-400 prior to the deployment of the actual planes, some point to the possibility that the two Planes where only deployed as a PR Stunt to imply a higher grade of combat readiness. What are your thoughts on that?

 

[Ranger25]

Coming back to the combat readiness of german assets...

Some planespotters have noted that the two Tornados which left for Syria are actually not RECCE-Tornados but ECR - Versions.

Theoreticly the ECR - Tornado is capable to deploy the RECCE-modul and provide ground reconnaissance but only when updated to ASSTA 3.0 which the german MoD denied to be the case with the two deployed planes.

The official statement of the Luftwaffe is that the planes are there to develop and test methods of air operations (I'm a bit unsure about the translation as it is seems to be a military term " die fliegerischen Verfahren in der Türkei abzustimmen und zu erproben " ) and don't need the Recce Modul for that but are due to be replaced by actual RECCE Tornados in January.

„Operation Counter Daesh“: Erste Tornados für Syrien nicht tauglich : Augen geradeaus

Some people think the ECR - Versions are there to gather radar data from russian S-300 and S-400 prior to the deployment of the actual planes, some point to the possibility that the two Planes where only deployed as a PR Stunt to imply a higher grade of combat readiness. What are your thoughts on that?

I agree. This is a significant opportunity for bother East and West to gather ECM/ECCM data on each other. One could postulate the S400 wasn't truly needed for base defense but is there for sho and to practice tracking Western Aircraft. Same can be said for Western assets V the S400

 

[Feanor]

I agree. This is a significant opportunity for bother East and West to gather ECM/ECCM data on each other. One could postulate the S400 wasn't truly needed for base defense but is there for sho and to practice tracking Western Aircraft. Same can be said for Western assets V the S400

It's definitely needed for air defense. It can reach into Turkish airspace and punish the Turks for a shoot down, even if they fired from inside their own airspace into Syria, or retreated back into their own airspace.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Iran has reached 100 KIA in the war in Syria. And the tempo of losses doesn't appear to be slowing possibly contradicting earlier info that they were withdrawing. It's also possible that they did a rotation of personnel, which may have looked like a withdrawal, but actually wasn't. Also it's important to note that a large number of high ranking officers have been killed, suggesting that their presence there is largely in the form of military advisers embedded with SAA units. Finally, it's important to note the tanker casualties, they are indirect confirmation of the rumors that some Syrian T-72s were crewed by Iranians.

Иран - Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - Юрий ЛÑмин

A look at oil under ISIS control.

Ри Б Ñидели на трубе - nortwolf_sam

Su-34 seen at the 3rd Tactical Base in Iran, it's used as a refuel point for Su-34s flying out of Russia. Theoretically they could Il-78s, but the shortage of refuelers and expense of such ops likely led them to this solution.

Су-34 ВКС РоÑÑии на иранÑкой 3-й тактичеÑкой авиабазе в Хамадане - Юрий ЛÑмин

There's info on a broader set of sanctions against Turkey, by Russia, but it's still hazy.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ñîáèðàåòñÿ ðàñøèðèòü ñàíêöèè ïðîòèâ Òóðöèè, óòâåðæäàåò ïðåññà

Putin met with Kerry, regarding a potential resolution to the Syrian crisis. What this means in details is unclear, but they may have been discussing postwar arrangement for Syria, including the planned transition of power.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí âñòðåòèëñÿ ñ ãëàâîé Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíòà ÑØÀ: Ìîñêâà è Âàøèíãòîí òåïåðü âìåñòå "èùóò ðàçâÿçêè" ñèðèéñêîãî êðèçèñà

 

[Hone C]

Looting banks and stores, selling antiquities, racketeering must be giving low income at this point, after years of civil war.

Lately they also have not overrun any new cities or gotten any equipment from captured stockpiles. At least I don't remember any such success.

And black market oil trade should be stemmed in a big way now. As money runs out there will be defections and split-ups.

Analysis of ISIS’s funding is obviously speculative, but the group is known to collect on a diverse range of sources, giving it a certain amount of redundancy if one source runs dry or is shut down.

• Chart: How Does ISIS Fund Itself? | Statista

The above article quotes a Bloomberg report estimating ISIS pulls in $500 million a year in oil revenues (probably less now it's subject to low crude prices, interdiction, etc.) but what interested me were the estimates of income from fertile agricultural territory controlled by the group across Syria and Iraq, potentially generating over $200 million every year.

Why U.S. Efforts to Cut Off Islamic State’s Funds Have Failed - Bloomberg Business

https://risk.thomsonreuters.com/sites/default/files/GRC01815.pdf

But funding a global propaganda machine, an education system, a religious police force, food kitchens, an Islamic judiciary system, etc. across such a large area must be relatively expensive, even under peacetime conditions. Juggling the finances while fighting a multi front war must be challenging.

 

[Feanor]

Allegedly Russia has detained 8 Turkish ships in Russian ports, following which Turkey proceeded to detain 27 Russian ships. I'm not sure who started it first, or what the exact reasoning there is, but it's getting ugly.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Habertürk: â Òóðöèè çàäåðæàíû 27 ðîññèéñêèõ êîðàáëåé

In Iraq, a member of the Qatar royal family, and their hunting party, were kidnapped by unknown armed men.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Èðàêå íåèçâåñòíûå ïîõèòèëè ÷ëåíîâ êîðîëåâñêîé ñåìüè Êàòàðà âìåñòå ñ äåñÿòêàìè îõîòíèêîâ

 

[Hone C]

Update.

Putin met with Kerry, regarding a potential resolution to the Syrian crisis. What this means in details is unclear, but they may have been discussing postwar arrangement for Syria, including the planned transition of power.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïóòèí âñòðåòèëñÿ ñ ãëàâîé Ãîñäåïàðòàìåíòà ÑØÀ: Ìîñêâà è Âàøèíãòîí òåïåðü âìåñòå "èùóò ðàçâÿçêè" ñèðèéñêîãî êðèçèñà

Talks between Kerry and both Lavrov and Putin seem to have resulted in a few minor agreements i.e. to draw up a list of terrorist organizations, to assist the UN in setting up a representative delegation from the Syrian opposition, and both sides to attend a meeting of the International Syria Support Group in New York on Dec. 18, but no major move on either sides strategic position, as expected.

https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/kerrys-trip-moscow-yields-little-progress

Kerry said he agreed with Putin that Syria must hold elections and that the Syrian people must themselves decide the future of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. This is a slight but notable shift from the United States' earlier insistence that al Assad should not play a role in Syria's political transition.

In Iraq, a member of the Qatar royal family, and their hunting party, were kidnapped by unknown armed men.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Èðàêå íåèçâåñòíûå ïîõèòèëè ÷ëåíîâ êîðîëåâñêîé ñåìüè Êàòàðà âìåñòå ñ äåñÿòêàìè îõîòíèêîâ ]

Potentially related to the Qatari-Turkish agreement aimed at combatting “common enemies,” or purely opportunistic I wonder.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-qatar-turkey-military-idUKKBN0TZ17920151216

 

[GermanHerman]

A member of the turkish oposition says Ankara was involved in the smuggling of Sarin or Sarin prequersor chemicals through ISIS to stage the attacks which were blamed on assad:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/turkey-smuggled-sarin-gas-to-al-qaeda-terrorists-in-syria/5495775

Unsuprisingly the turkish MP now alledgedly is under investigation for treason

https://www.rt.com/news/326084-erdem-rt-interview-treason/

Turkey realy does a decent job at looking realy bad.

 

[gazzzwp]

Allegedly Russia has detained 8 Turkish ships in Russian ports, following which Turkey proceeded to detain 27 Russian ships. I'm not sure who started it first, or what the exact reasoning there is, but it's getting ugly.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Habertürk: â Òóðöèè çàäåðæàíû 27 ðîññèéñêèõ êîðàáëåé

In Iraq, a member of the Qatar royal family, and their hunting party, were kidnapped by unknown armed men.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  Èðàêå íåèçâåñòíûå ïîõèòèëè ÷ëåíîâ êîðîëåâñêîé ñåìüè Êàòàðà âìåñòå ñ äåñÿòêàìè îõîòíèêîâ

Feanor I wanted to just thank you for providing this information, much of which is not in the mainstream media. Great job.

Let's all hope that Turkish/Russian relations was on the agenda in the latest meeting with Kerry/Lavrov.