War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

I think a much more logical explanation is that the US doesn't *want* to reveal the photos it is undoubtedly taking. I can see this for a number of reasons: The photos themselves reveal a quality/capability the US doesn't want to show, the photos show something else the US doesn't want to show, the photos implicate an ally in someway or distort the "narrative" of the situation

Or a million and twelve other reasons. Russian space- or aerial-based anti-sat EW wouldn't be in the top fifty

So what is your opinion; can the US satellites still see the Russian equipment?

Furthermore, why on earth did you reply to yourself instead of editing your post?

Pressed the wrong button Once the mistake is made it is not possible to delete that post.

 

[Feanor]

I'm really not sure AD. It seems a bit of a coincidence that the last images we have were taken in September this year, then after the Russians move in hardware nothing has been released.

It's also a bit of a coincidence that if you look at images of the Ukraine they are really very poor in quality. To be honest I don't know what to make of it accept for the coincidences.

http://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1396533/ukraine-nato-satellite.jpg

US releases satellite images of Russian forces near Ukraine borders - Telegraph

There is December footage from satellites that revealed the redeployment of the second wing of Su-34s to Syria. Try clicking on the links I provide some time. Even when the text is in Russian (and Google translate sucks) you can still look at the photos and images provided.

The photos were taken by a SPOT series satellite, from Airbus Defense and Space, and it looks like the satellite belonged to France.

 

[gazzzwp]

There is December footage from satellites that revealed the redeployment of the second wing of Su-34s to Syria. Try clicking on the links I provide some time. Even when the text is in Russian (and Google translate sucks) you can still look at the photos and images provided.

The photos were taken by a SPOT series satellite, from Airbus Defense and Space, and it looks like the satellite belonged to France.

Thanks Feanor. Just checked back. That answers the question.

Here it is in case others missed it.

http://prokhor-tebin.livejournal.com/952351.html

 

[gazzzwp]

Curious incident further indicating tensions. Russian ship fires warning shots to Turkish fishing vessel.

Russia fires Turkey boat warning shot - BBC News

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Iraq has begun using Chinese Ch-4B UAVs to strike ISIS targets.

ИракÑкий БПЛРCh-4B Ð½Ð°Ð½ÐµÑ ÑƒÐ´Ð°Ñ€ по лагерю ИГ - Блокнот военного милитариÑта

There was a terrorist attack in Homs recently, a large explosion, and ISIS has taken credit.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: "Èñëàìñêîå ãîñóäàðñòâî" âçÿëî íà ñåáÿ îòâåòñòâåííîñòü çà òåðàêò â ñèðèéñêîì Õîìñå

There was a recent Tu-154 flight to Syria, likely a leader for a group of fighters. However it took off from an airbase that houses MiG-29s and Su-35S. It's possible that it was the leader for the Su-34s that arrived in early December, but it's also possible that other aircraft (the Su-35S is a likely candidate) will turn up soon.

Ту-154 ВКС RA-85155 в качеÑтве лидера? - Ðвиаголоволомки

Interesting OSINT analysis of airstrikes by Russia and the coalition, against water facilities in ISIS hands.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2015/12/11/syrias-bombed-water-infrastructure/

There has been a sea incident where a Turkish fishing boat got to close to a Russian warship, ignoring all communications. Warnings shot were fired when it was 600m away, and it turned around at 540m. The incident took place 22kms off of the Greek island of Lemnos, in the Aegean sea.

Unfortunately incidents like this are likely to increase in frequency, and hold a lot of potential for dangerous escalation.

Análisis Militares: Incidente ruso-turco en el Mediterráneo (13-12-2015)
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèé âîåííûé êîðàáëü îòêðûë îãîíü ïî òóðåöêîìó ñåéíåðó, ÷òîáû èçáåæàòü ñòîëê/url]
[url=http://military-informant.com/navy/rossiykiy-storozhevoy-korabl-obstrelyal-turetskiy-seyner-v-egeyskom-more.html]РоÑÑийÑкий Ñторожевой корабль обÑтрелÑл турецкий Ñейнер в ЭгейÑком море | Военный информатор

 

[gazzzwp]

There has been a sea incident where a Turkish fishing boat got to close to a Russian warship, ignoring all communications. Warnings shot were fired when it was 600m away, and it turned around at 540m. The incident took place 22kms off of the Greek island of Lemnos, in the Aegean sea.

Unfortunately incidents like this are likely to increase in frequency, and hold a lot of potential for dangerous escalation.

Análisis Militares: Incidente ruso-turco en el Mediterráneo (13-12-2015)
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêèé âîåííûé êîðàáëü îòêðûë îãîíü ïî òóðåöêîìó ñåéíåðó, ÷òîáû èçáåæàòü ñòîëêíîâåíèÿ
Ð*оÑÑийÑкий Ñторожевой корабль обÑтрелÑл турецкий Ñейнер в Ð*гейÑком море | Военный информатор

Wow this vessel looks seriously dated. Someone on RT blog commented that it was first commissioned in 1969 !

 

[Feanor]

Wow this vessel looks seriously dated. Someone on RT blog commented that it was first commissioned in 1969 !

It's this guy. He used to be classified as a destroyer, but by modern standards he's an outdated frigate. He did get an upgrade, giving him newer X-35 missiles, but his SAM is still an ancient S-125. He's also the last of his kind still in service.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_destroyer_Smetlivyy

 

[John Fedup]

Not disputing the analysis, but I think you'll find the cost price for large-medium US frackers, in the $40-50 range handle.

Let's also pay close attention to the fact that a huge amount of floating storage plays, are currently in abundance..

The price decline has accomplished what greenies never could, a massive decline in oil sands derived oil from Alberta. Production costs likely exceed oil prices by a considerable margin, especially when transportation costs are added in (no Keystone or Northern Gateway pipelines will happen for at least two decades if ever). This will put further pressure on new defence procurement and will provide junior with an excuse to ignore the military more even more than planned.

 

[SolarWind]

Not disputing the analysis, but I think you'll find the cost price for large-medium US frackers, in the $40-50 range handle.

Let's also pay close attention to the fact that a huge amount of floating storage plays, are currently in abundance..

Different projects have different costs. Companies may put on hold (stop production) the more costly production points, but keep the less costly in production. The more flexible of those frozen higher cost production points could be restarted more easily once prices go up due to lower supply.

 

[gazzzwp]

The price decline has accomplished what greenies never could, a massive decline in oil sands derived oil from Alberta. Production costs likely exceed oil prices by a considerable margin, especially when transportation costs are added in (no Keystone or Northern Gateway pipelines will happen for at least two decades if ever). This will put further pressure on new defence procurement and will provide junior with an excuse to ignore the military more even more than planned.

Unless of course Russia start to become more threatening from the north? Necessity is always a big motivator.

 

[Twain]

Not disputing the analysis, but I think you'll find the cost price for large-medium US frackers, in the $40-50 range handle.

Let's also pay close attention to the fact that a huge amount of floating storage plays, are currently in abundance..

That's entirely possible, I've seen both numbers as estimates.Right now The only people who really know the breakeven cost are the companies themselves. We'll have a much better idea once the rig counts start going up again. Another unknown factor is whether or not they ever get a nat gas pipeline built to service the bakken formation. Right now they are just burning off the natural gas. If they ever get to the point that they can sell that gas things could change again lowering breakeven costs a little more.

 

[Nick underscore]

That's entirely possible, I've seen both numbers as estimates.Right now The only people who really know the breakeven cost are the companies themselves. We'll have a much better idea once the rig counts start going up again. Another unknown factor is whether or not they ever get a nat gas pipeline built to service the bakken formation. Right now they are just burning off the natural gas. If they ever get to the point that they can sell that gas things could change again lowering breakeven costs a little more.

Agree. We are still in a volatile market and this should continue for next 3-4 qtrs.

Interesting that you bring up the rig counts.. Normally it is a good measure, but for the last 6-7 months, U.S. oil rig service companies - having been offering rigs out at nearly cost.. So current B-H Index is not reflective

Yes, the companies themselves know the breakeven points, but then so do many in the Fin industry.

 

[Feanor]

Unless of course Russia start to become more threatening from the north? Necessity is always a big motivator.

I doubt Russian interests involve taking over Baffin island. They're mostly interested in securing what they see as their sector of the Arctic. But this belongs in the Arctic thread.

Meanwhile Turkey has allowed a Russian observation flight over Turkey. A reminder, this was done under the Open Skies treaty.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àíêàðà ñîãëàñîâàëà íàáëþäàòåëüíûé ïîëåò ðîññèéñêèõ èíñïåêòîðîâ íàä Òóðöèåé

An airstrike hit a school in Duma, near Damascus killing 28 civilians. It's not immediately clear who is responsible, but given the location, I think the coalition is out.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Â Ñèðèè ïîä óäàð ñ âîçäóõà ïîïàëà øêîëà, äåñÿòêè ïîãèáøèõ â Äóìå

The owner of the Turkish fishing vessel said they were 1.8kms from Russia, didn't notice any firing, and handed over tapes from the incident to the Turkish Coast Guard.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàäåëåö òóðåöêîãî ñóäíà çàÿâèë, ÷òî íå çàìåòèë îáñòðåëà ñî ñòîðîíû ðîññèéñêèõ ìîðÿêîâ

 

[ngatimozart]

Curious incident further indicating tensions. Russian ship fires warning shots to Turkish fishing vessel.

Russia fires Turkey boat warning shot - BBC News

It's not curious. The fishing vessel presented as a hazard to navigation and had ignored all previous attempts of communication. It was a safety issue and having seen how some civilian shipping and boat crews operate, it does not surprise. There are some idiots out on the water, dangerous idiots who shouldn't even be left in charge of a toy boat in a bath tub.

 

[Ranger25]

It's not curious. The fishing vessel presented as a hazard to navigation and had ignored all previous attempts of communication. It was a safety issue and having seen how some civilian shipping and boat crews operate, it does not surprise. There are some idiots out on the water, dangerous idiots who shouldn't even be left in charge of a toy boat in a bath tub.

Agreed, Don't think for one minute, (post USS Cole) the USN doesn't have similar SOPs in place

 

[Ranger25]

Another similar incident between the Russiand Navy and Turkey

This time involved a Turkish flagged merchant blocking a Russian Drill rig


https://www.rt.com/news/325840-russian-navy-platform-turkish-vessel/

 

[KiwiRob]

It's this guy. He used to be classified as a destroyer, but by modern standards he's an outdated frigate. He did get an upgrade, giving him newer X-35 missiles, but his SAM is still an ancient S-125. He's also the last of his kind still in service.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_destroyer_Smetlivyy

India have 5 in service.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Russia is claiming over 5000 FSA fighters have switched sides, and are now working with Assad to fight against terrorism. Does anyone have anything more specific on this? There was noise from Russia about working with opposition elements, and some public gestures made towards the FSA, but this is the first I hear of any real coordination. And it sounds too big to be true.

Тем временем... - Вахтенный журнал Ñтареющего пирата

A ship flying a Turkish flag tried to interfere with a Russian vessel moving a drilling rig on the Black Sea. The ship did not respond to radio, but it left when a Russian FSB coast guard vessel arrived, along with a small missile ship from the Black Sea Fleet.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñóäíî ïîä òóðåöêèì ôëàãîì ïðåãðàäèëî äîðîãó ðîññèéñêèì êîðàáëÿì, âåçóùèì áóðîâóþ óñòàíîâêó
ОпÑÑ‚ÑŒ турки - Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½

Possibly in response, Russia is about to cancel the Russo-Turkish summit.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêî-òóðåöêèé ñàììèò â Ñàíêò-Ïåòåðáóðãå îòìåíåí

A blogger from Mosul reports an execution of over 30 children with Down's syndrome by ISIS.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áëîããåð èç Ìîñóëà ñîîáùèë îá óáèéñòâå òåððîðèñòàìè "Èñëàìñêîãî ãîñóäàðñòâà" 38 äåòåé ñ ñèíäðîìîì Äàóíà

The Egyptian government says they've completed analysis of the A321 crash and see no evidence of terrorism.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Âëàñòè Åãèïòà íå ïîäòâåðæäàþò âåðñèþ î êðóøåíèè A321 èç-çà òåðàêòà

A column of vehicles left the Turk camp in Iraq and headed north towards Turkey. Whether this is a withdrawal or not is unclear.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Òóðöèÿ âûâåëà ÷àñòü âîéñê èç òðåíèðîâî÷íîãî ëàãåðÿ íà ñåâåðå Èðàêà, óòâåðæäàþò ÑÌÈ

It's been confirmed that some of the old T-90 fr were supplied to Syria. A reminder, these tanks have no thermals, only NVGs, and inferior turret design. Overall they're still far ahead of even T-72B or S. They're definitely way better then the T-72M and T-62s that make up the mainstay of the Syrian tank fleet.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ð’ районе ÑирийÑкого Ðлеппо замечены роÑÑийÑкие Т-90 образца 1992 года

 

[Feanor]

India have 5 in service.

Sorry, I was unclear. The last of his kind in the Russian Navy.

It's not curious.

Apparently it is. It seems that the Turks are doing this on purpose. Emphasis on seems. Two incidents so far, in very little time and each time interfering in a notable way, playing chicken with a warship or block the movement of a sea drilling rig whose relocation was due to a "complicated political situation".

Russian naval observers stated quite early on after the Turkish shoot down of the jet, that escalation of tensions would likely result in maritime incidents, and there is considerable precedent for it.

EDIT: The Kassab-Latakiya road has been completely taken by government troops.

http://armenpress.am/rus/news/829497/osvobozhdena-trassa-kesab-latakiya.html

 

[ngatimozart]

Apparently it is. It seems that the Turks are doing this on purpose. Emphasis on seems. Two incidents so far, in very little time and each time interfering in a notable way, playing chicken with a warship or block the movement of a sea drilling rig whose relocation was due to a "complicated political situation".

Russian naval observers stated quite early on after the Turkish shoot down of the jet, that escalation of tensions would likely result in maritime incidents, and there is considerable precedent for it.

OK, I was looking at it from a naval sailors point of view and wasn't aware of the oil rig incident. The Turks are certainly ambitious in their choice of enemies. Last time they picked a fight with the Russian empire the Ottomans lost.

On another note, Al Jazeera reported on their 10:00GMT 14 Dec 15 bulletin that the Turks had agreed to withdraw their forces from Mosul and return them to Turkey. The Turks claim it is a redeployment but the Peshmerga said that it was a large troop movement. Apparently Turkish military advisors will remain with the Peshmerga.