War Against ISIS

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I'm afraid either you or I misunderstand. He's talking about the rebel pockets in eastern Syria. He's wondering how they're supplied. They certainly aren't supplied from Iraqi army stockpiles, or Syrian for that matter since they're not gaining ground of capturing bases.
I would think that some captured Iraqi arms would have been supplied by ISIL to their forces in Syria. As for other factions, l agree that supplies come primarily from Turkey and the Gulf states.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would think that some captured Iraqi arms would have been supplied by ISIL to their forces in Syria. As for other factions, l agree that supplies come primarily from Turkey and the Gulf states.
These pockets aren't really ISIS. They're either random islamists or various other rebel groups. They get lumped together into the moderate opposition, in western press.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Heavy fighting continues in Turkish Kurdistan, where government troops sweep through urban areas.

Бои в турецком курдиÑтане - Юрий ЛÑмин

Some more footage of Mi-24s from Hmeimeem.

Ми-24П, ÐБ Хмейми - Берлога Бронемедведа

A list of ISIS oil facilities hit by Russian air strikes. Note, that in the past Russia has often mis-identified the targets struck, and published incorrect video material that doesn't match claimed target location. So take the footage with a grain of salt. Or a tablespoon.

Análisis Militares: "Catálogo" de las instalaciones petroleras del EI/DAESH atacadas por la aviación rusa (actualizado)

IHS says that from January 1st to Dec 14th the territory held by ISIS went down from 12800 sq kms to 7800 sq kms. Assad also lost ground, being reduced to 30 000 sq kms.

Personal comment: while it's true ISIS has lost ground, counting area held by square kms is absurd in a theater where most of the land is uninhabited desert. A far more useful method would be to consider what major population centers, strategic assets, and communication routes they hold.

"Халифат" терÑет контроль над территориÑми в Сирии и Ираке - bmpd

A group photo of allegedly ISIS fighters in Idlib. Interesting is the many on the far left, with the green plate over his butt. It's a typical piece of equipment used in the FSU states.

ДÐИШ в Идлибе. ВыделÑем детали. - nortwolf_sam

T-90 in Syria. Location unknown.

Еще Т-90, Ð¡Ð¸Ñ€Ð¸Ñ - Берлога Бронемедведа

Iraq got it's first batch of T-50IQ combat-trainers. They bought a total of 24, and have a fairly wide range of weapons, making them usable for ground-attack.

Ирак получил первые пÑÑ‚ÑŒ Ñамолетов Т-50IQ - bmpd

Turkey condemned Russian air strikes on Idlib, and has stated that "Syria will not become a target of Russian imperialism".

Personal comment: Ok, they're maybe 50 years too late. Syria has been a Soviet and later Russian client state for a long time now. But these statements indicate the general direction they're trying to move in.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ïðåìüåð-ìèíèñòð Òóðöèè îñóäèë Ðîññèþ çà àâèàóäàðû ïî ñèðèéñêîìó ãîðîäó Èäá

Some photos. The first is an Iraqi T-72M, the second is a set of Kurdish peshmerga from Iraq, the third is a Hind near Tartus.

Танк Т-72М ВС Ирака.: codename_it
Бойцы ВС КурдиÑтана.: codename_it
Ð’ ТартуÑе.: codename_it
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Feanor,

the 'land area held' figures can't include empty & uncontrolled desert. If they did, the figure for Daesh would be much greater. For example, ar-Raqqah & Deir ez-Zor governorates have a combined land area of 53000 km2, mostly desert. If the empty lands were counted, Daesh would have a much larger area than 12800 km just in those two.

I don't know for sure, but it looks as if the estimates of land areas controlled count only cities & towns & the areas around them, settled countryside, & strips along main roads.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Feanor,

the 'land area held' figures can't include empty & uncontrolled desert. If they did, the figure for Daesh would be much greater. For example, ar-Raqqah & Deir ez-Zor governorates have a combined land area of 53000 km2, mostly desert. If the empty lands were counted, Daesh would have a much larger area than 12800 km just in those two.

I don't know for sure, but it looks as if the estimates of land areas controlled count only cities & towns & the areas around them, settled countryside, & strips along main roads.
Interesting. But in that case, why measure in land area at all? Holding one densely populated major city or significant oil field is far more significant then 1000 villages. What's the utility of the metric?
 

Hone C

Active Member
Speaking of major cities and strategic communication/transport nodes, it looks as though the Iraqi Army has finally managed to fight it's way into Ramadi, and is advancing on the government complex in the city centre.

Iraqi Army spokesman Sabah al-Numani said Iraqi forces launched a dawn attack that involved an opposed obstacle crossing of the Euphrates River, but did not face strong resistance, only snipers and suicide bombers. An estimated 250 and 300 Islamic State fighters remain entrenched in the city’s centre.

This appears to conform to previously observed defensive tactics used by ISIS, denying rather than defending urban areas with IED belts, suicide bombers and snipers then launching aggressive local counter attacks.

Iraqi troops storm into center of Islamic State-held Ramadi | Reuters
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

swerve

Super Moderator
Interesting. But in that case, why measure in land area at all? Holding one densely populated major city or significant oil field is far more significant then 1000 villages. What's the utility of the metric?
My thoughts as well. It doesn't seem very meaningful. Population controlled would be far better IMO.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Land area, population density, assets in dollars per unit of area, would be meaningful if considered together. But I don't see how one could gather such information solely from social media, which IHS says is the source.

Daech a perdu 14% du territoire qu'il contrôlait en 2014
I presume social media are the sources for the information on locations controlled (Daesh & its foreign recruits use social media a lot), which is then used in conjunction with a map to calculate the area.
 

corporalclegg

Banned Member
Interesting amnesty report, relating to the civilian impact assessment of the Russian air campaign in Syria.
Russian DM denyes it:

After getting acquainted with such publications and reports, there is always a question: Do militants of the ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra and other extremist armed groups active in Syria know how many human rights organizations the hated by them West are working at the under-controlled territories and monitors their activity daily.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Short update.

Dec 18 to 23rd Russia flew 302 sorties striking 1093 targets in Syria.

Итоги деÑтельноÑти ВКС РоÑÑии в Сирии Ñ 18 по 23 Ð´ÐµÐºÐ°Ð±Ñ€Ñ - bmpd

Un-armored versions of the GAZ Tigr have shown up in Syria.

Gur Khan attacks!: Ðа помощь итальÑнÑким "РыÑÑм" в Сирию переброшены бронеавтомобили "Тигры"

Russian officials say that over 600 people have left Dagestan to join ISIS. However unofficial sources put the numbers much higher.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áîëåå 600 ÷åëîâåê óåõàëè èç Äàãåñòàíà âîåâàòü çà ÈÃ

German Patriot missiles left Turkey early, on dec 22nd.

Ðу, мало ли чего... - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russian FSB says they have evidence of the structure involved in the downing of the Russian airliner over Egypt.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com ::  ÔÑÁ óñòàíîâèëè "ïðèìåðíóþ ïðèíàäëåæíîñòü" ïðè÷àñòíûõ ê êðóøåíèþ A321 ñòðóêòóð

Russian speaker of the council of the federation said that she doesn't see anything positive in their relations with Turkey. This comes at almost the same time as the Turkish prime minister called an opposition politician a traitor for criticizing the downing of the Su-24.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ìàòâèåíêî çàÿâèëà, ÷òî íûíåøíåå ðóêîâîäñòâî Òóðöèè äëÿ Ðîññèè "íåðóêîïîæàòíî"
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãëàâà ïðàâèòåëüñòâà Òóðöèè íàçâàë èçâåñòíîãî îïïîçèöèîíåðà èçìåííèêîì èç-çà êðèòèêè âëàñòåé çà ñáèòûé Ñó-24

Russia handed to France evidence of Turkey being involved in routing terrorists to Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ ïåðåäàëà Ôðàíöèè äîêàçàòåëüñòâà ïðè÷àñòíîñòè Òóðöèè ê ïåðåáðîñêå áîåâèêîâ â Ñèðèþ
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Some maps and lots of photos of the fighting in Ramadi, where a shrinking ISIS garrison still holds significant portions of the city against advancing Iraqi troops. US airstrikes, and a huge advantage in numbers and heavy weapons mean that it's really only a matter of time.

Warning: some extremely graphic images at the end.

Битва за Рамади - Colonel Cassad

ISIS has taken over Sirt, the home town of Gaddafi in Libya. There's material suggesting ISIS is trying to restore flyability to some of the fighter jets there.

Сирт: До и поÑле - Colonel Cassad

A large collection of photos and a couple of maps, on the de-facto war breaking out in Turkish Kurdistan.

Ð‘Ð¾Ð»ÐµÐ²Ð°Ñ Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ‡ÐºÐ° - Colonel Cassad

Russian Tigr-M in Syria. Nothing new really, just a photo.

Чего только в Сирии уже нет... - Берлога Бронемедведа

Russia says they've destroyed over 2000 ISIS oil trucks.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãåíøòàá ÐÔ: ñàìîëåòû ÂÊÑ ñîâåðøèëè óæå áîëåå 5 òûñÿ÷ âûëåòîâ â Ñèðèè è óíè÷òîæèëè áîëüøå 2 òûñÿ÷ áåíçîâîçîâ ñ íåôòüþ ÈÃ
 

Toblerone

Banned Member
Wow I hadn't realized the situation is that bad in Turkey. It really is the dark horse of unstable actors as I've been saying all along.

I also recognized Erdogan's mistake immediately, after Obama, now the Arab League is lambasting their iraqi minideployment and pressuring them to really get their forces out for good.
Arab League condemns Turkey over Iraq troop deployment | News | DW.COM | 24.12.2015

And let's not forget they were also attacked by ISIS, but only injuries sustained.


Also, the russians bombed the leader of Jaysh al Islam away. They are the second best in assassinations after the israelis imo.
NewsWires : euronews : the latest international news as video on demand
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Wow I hadn't realized the situation is that bad in Turkey. It really is the dark horse of unstable actors as I've been saying all along.
Unfortunately it looks like the area of general instability is expanding outward, beyond Syria and Iraq. Turkey is caught up in it via Kurdistan, Egypt via the Sinai, and Yemen and Libya are strong candidates for ISIS takeover, if not the entire countries, significant portions of them.
 

colay1

Member
The B-1 is the USAF preferred platform to deliver CAS support for the retaking of Ramadi. Aside from JDAMs, it's also able to employ laser-guided PGMs courtesy of it's Sniper Pod.

Coalition: Air Force B-1 bombers being used in Ramadi offensive


The U.S. military will use B-1 bombers — not A-10s — to provide Iraqi security forces with close air support as they make their final push into Ramadi from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a military spokesman said Thursday.

"We've got B-1s in this fight, and when we find obstacles that we know we can hit, we'll strike them from the air as well to try and disable them," Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren said on CNN's "New Day" on Thursday.

He said they were being used due to its long loiter time, its ability to hold lots of munitions and "extraordinary precision." The B-1 is able to hold 84 500lb general-purpose bombs, and loiter up to 10 hours without a single refueling.

"B-1s are evolving into a very effective close air support platform," he said.

In addition, he said they are "much less" vulnerable than the A-10 attack jets, which were employed in Iraq and Afghanistan to support ground troops in battle.

A-10s are not being used in the offensive at the moment, he said, but it's not clear why.

One reason may be that some believe that B-1s are more precise than A-10s. The Obama administration has been concerned with inflicting civilian casualties throughout the yearlong war against ISIS, insisting that the rules of engagement are more restrictive than what is required under the law of war.
 

Belesarius

New Member
I'm curious to hear what the folks on this board think of Turkeys role in the conflict.. With the mounting evidence of oil smuggling going into Turkey and Turkey's sabre rattling with Russia I'm... not their biggest fan lately.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.
The head of Jaesh al-Islam was killed by an allegedly Syrian air strike, when an air strike hit their HQ, also killing several commanders from Ahrar ash-Sham. However a look at the footage makes it look like VVS work.

Ð›Ð¸ÐºÐ²Ð¸Ð´Ð°Ñ†Ð¸Ñ Ð—Ð°Ñ…Ñ€Ð°Ð½Ð° Ðллуша в Сирии - bmpd


Couple of fresh photos of S-400 TELs in Syria, under cammie netting. Note the green wall in the background that looks a lot like HESCO barriers.

Фото ÑиÑтем С-400 ВКС Ð*Ф на авиабазе Хмеймим в Сирии | Военный информатор

Russian MoD Tu-154M flights to Syria continue, likely carrying high ranking military commanders back and forth. Another Russian government plane has been zipping around multiple ME countries, but who exactly is on it is unclear. At the same time news came out that a representative of Putin was in Israel, Alexandr Lavrentyev, accompanied by Russian intelligence officers of high rank, delivering some sort of proposals on Syria. Could they have been on that mystery flight? This comes after a Dec 22nd phone conversation between Netanyahu and Putin.

Ту-154Ðœ RA-85042 начал полёты в Сирию - Ðвиаголоволомки
БлижневоÑточное турне RA-64058 - Ðвиаголоволомки
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñïåöïðåäñòàâèòåëü Ïóòèíà òàéíî ïîñåòèë Èçðàèëü ñ ïðåäëîæåíèÿìè ïî Ñèðèè

There is some indirect evidence that a Russian nuclear sub, the B-138 Obninsk participated in launching cruise missiles against Syria. It's a project 671RTMK sub, that has been upgraded with Kalibr-PL missiles, and has conducted training firing of the missiles in the past.

It's important to note that it's a rather old sub, and definitely outmatched compared to anything the USN operates today. It still works as a cruise missile delivery platform, but the fact that it seems to be the only candidate for that deployment is somewhat sad.

Ðвтономка "ОбнинÑка": факты и Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ´Ð¿Ð¾Ð»Ð¾Ð¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ - Флот открытого океана: Ð¢Ñ€ÐµÑ‚ÑŒÑ Ð¿Ð¾Ð¿Ñ‹Ñ‚ÐºÐ°

Head of the Russian VKS, Bondarev, says they've never hit any civilian targets in Syria, not schools or religious sites.

Personal comment: I'm not posting this because it's a meaningful statement, I'm posting this as an illustration of level of nonsense that often comes out of Russian officials' mouths. With the overwhelming evidence that Russia has hit civilian infrastructure as part of their bombing campaign, silly denials like this (blanket claims of never) are meaningless. Next time you consider Russian official statements, please consider that this may be the level they're made on.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèéñêàÿ àâèàöèÿ íè ðàçó íå àòàêîâàëà ãðàæäàíñêèå îáúåêòû â Ñèðèè, çàÿâèë ãëàâêîì ÂÊÑ

EDIT: Some footage of oil convoys at the Turkish border, as well as footage of Russian air strikes against oil facilities and convoys.

http://nortwolf-sam.livejournal.com/1119916.html

A list of Russina Mi-8 helos in Syria.

http://charly015.blogspot.com/2015/12/mi-8-en-hmeymim-en-siria-actualizado.html

Some material on Syrian armored bulldozers. Note they're mostly improvised projects.

http://vestnik-rm.ru/news-4-14629.htm

The Iraqis say they have central Ramadi surrounded. However given the complex urban environment, and the less then capable Iraqi forces, I have some doubts as to just how tight the net is.

http://newsru.com/world/27dec2015/ramadi.html
 
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