Ukranian Crisis

Feanor · Feb 16, 2015

Nick underscore said:
Not sure I agree with the last part of this statement. We all realise the path into the EU takes at least 4-10 years, depending on various economic, political and structural requirements. I just don't see why Putin had to use his aggressor card to the extent he has. Your last sentence alarms me somewhat.

In the case of Ukraine the path is considerably longer then 4-10 years. Why Putin played the aggressor card is understandable. It's easy to (with hindsight) see how this mistake happened.

Apologies if you found this offensive - it wasn't intended as such. It was for context as the RF foreign policy seems to run through one person. Don't get me wrong, I think Lavrov does an excellent job as FM.

It wasn't offensive, it was just inapplicable.

It was an example for future comparison. IMV a future Ukraine has the potential to be either a Belorussian style economic model or a Polish one at best.

You think Ukraine will do better then Belorus over the next say, 5 years?

But that is exactly what Putin is doing with his own economy! Ruining ties with its large economic partners, costing political relations and as a result gaining economic sanctions as a consequence. I'm surprised the RF (Putin) didn't take a 'softly softly' approach. It will be extreamely difficult to ever 'turn' Ukraine back now.

Oh yes, he screwed up big time.

Agreed by western standards it's cheap.. But from the $40bio USD committed, plus further to come - It won't be considered a waste if ~$1-2bio winds up funding Ukrainian defences. Let's not forget some western partners will also be quietly happy, if some of those funds are channelled directly into the war effort.

Well let's see what happens. How much they actually get, how much they spend on what.

The last part of the statement by me was countered by what I stated just prior to this. It will take time and the EU has patience and capital. Yes, massive poltical, economic and structural reform/ change will need to take place, but it's successfully been accomplished before. IMV, the dye has been cast, to which direction Ukraine's elites which to face. If it was me, I know which I would rather be held accountable by..

You think the EU will do the reforms in Ukraine, instead of the Ukrainian government? There are plenty of eastern european countries where despite all the EU efforts, corruption reigns supreme and despite economic improvement, income inequality is a huge problem.

KiwiRob · Feb 16, 2015

Nick underscore said:
But that's the core issue. It's their choice to join EU (let's forget NATO for a moment). I think we know there is a large majority of Ukrainians that want to face west.

I doubt the EU would really want to take on Ukraine, and I doubt Ukraine would ever be able to change to meet the entry requirements. The EU was badly burned by allowing Greece to enter despite there inability to meet the EU requirements.

Feanor · Feb 16, 2015

swerve · Feb 16, 2015

Strannik said:
Doh! Russia did tried this approach from 1991 to 2008. It did not work. The situation during this time just about all over the globe went from quietly optimistic to downright depressing. It is time to try something else.

No it didn't. See Transdnistria, Abkhazia, & South Ossetia, all cases of Russian interference in the internal affairs of states outside Russia.

And how did Russia suffer in those years? Nobody interfered with Russia. Nobody threatened Russia. Russia's previous adversaries disarmed rapidly. Russia was left alone to do what it wanted inside its own borders - & even a little bit across them.

BlueRose · Feb 16, 2015

Feanor said:
Update.

9-12th Feb map.

kot_ivanov - ÐšÐÐ*Ð¢Ð Ð‘ÐžÐ•Ð’Ð«Ð¥ Ð”Ð•Ð™Ð¡Ð¢Ð’Ð˜Ð™ 09-12 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ

Interesting UA movements on the map, and there will be no breakthrough out of that pocket. Also looks like the DPR can divide that pocket into two smaller pockets if they wanted to.

To add to Feanor's updates:
DPR DM sitrep 16/02/15, seems there were several more breakout attempts as of last night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfzlZI6YrWE

According to Givi and journalistic reports the airport has been shelled on several occasions as of late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMnsXC5lhmE

Right Sector "pledges" to be in accordance with the ceasefire. Keep in mind they already said they will not comply with it whatsoever, and in the sitrep above they were involved in recent operations.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...e-compliance-with-ceasefire-order-380785.html

wittmanace · Feb 16, 2015

The 20 saxons are one of two shipment I understand, for a total of 75. It was agreed a while ago, as part of non lethal aid. I'll find a link, but it was quietly in the news before, reported as 75 in shipments of 55 and 20.

It is amazing how righteous each side is in this. It is so hard to understand adults who genuinely see things as a contest between good and evil in simple terms, which is what we see in all the comments by politicians and combatants, and supposed journalists. Either little Russia is helping novorussians avoid genocide as they fight for freedom and their human rights, or the fascist forces of the beast in the East are steamrolling democracy in the form of the Angels of Kiev because they love the taste of western baby tears. Such distortion and failure to grasp the bloody and miserable nature of war and the difficult circumstances of combatants, let alone trapped civilians who worry more about life or death, feeding children and the like rather than politics is rather tragic in itself.

gazzzwp · Feb 16, 2015

The cease fire appears to be in tatters. What does the crystal ball say about what the future holds?

How much longer can the Ukranian resources hold out? If the flow of superior arms keeps coming across the border then surely the Ukranians will keep being rolled back.

What is the predicted halt line? Will they just continue all the way to Kiev?

What do you guys think? Will Russia succeed in drawing the West into the conflict? Will the West be forced to sacrifice the Ukraine and settle for bolstering it's defenses inside NATO borders while being forced to accept the newly expanded Russian territory? Is this Hungary all over again?

The writing is on the wall as they say.

Nick underscore · Feb 16, 2015

Feanor said:
You think Ukraine will do better then Belorus over the next say, 5 years?

All depends if this 'interference' from the RF begins to actually cease. If it did, yes I do over ~5-6years

You think the EU will do the reforms in Ukraine, instead of the Ukrainian government?

No, but the 'carrot' is there to follow.

KiwiRob said:
I doubt the EU would really want to take on Ukraine, and I doubt Ukraine would ever be able to change to meet the entry requirements. The EU was badly burned by allowing Greece to enter despite there inability to meet the EU requirements.

Badly burned? Really? Let's wait till the 28th of Feb and see what the Greeks actually do, instead of listening to the wonderful rhetoric.

Feanor said:
Update.
New Ukrainian army units.

10th Mountain Regiment, Chernigovo.
14th Mech Bde - former 51st
53rd Mech
54th Mech
57th Mech
58th Mech
59th Mech

43rd Arty Bde
40th Arty
44th Arty

81st Para-Assault

129th Recon Rgt
130th Recon
136th Recon

1st Marine Bde

Ð”ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐœÐ¾ÐºÑ€ÑƒÑˆÐ¸Ð½ - ÐÐ¾Ð²Ñ‹Ðµ Ñ‡Ð°ÑÑ‚Ð¸ Ð’Ð¡Ð£°Ð½Ð½Ñ‹Ðµ Ð¼Ð°ÑˆÐ¸Ð½Ñ‹ KrAZ Shrek Ð´Ð»Ñ ÐÐ°Ñ†Ð¸Ð¾Ð½Ð°Ð»ÑŒÐ½Ð¾Ð¹ Ð³Ð²Ð°Ñ€Ð´Ð¸Ð¸ Ð£ÐºÑ€Ð°Ð¸Ð½Ñ‹[/url]

Thanks for the update. Can they equip the Mech Bgdes from storage and to what % you think? I'm sure the Arty's could with old stock

alexkvaskov · Feb 16, 2015

Nick underscore said:
Thanks for the update. Can they equip the Mech Bgdes from storage and to what % you think? I'm sure the Arty's could with old stock

From what I've read, the Ukrainian forces have many tubes but few munitions for them.

gazzzwp · Feb 17, 2015

alexkvaskov said:
From what I've read, the Ukrainian forces have many tubes but few munitions for them.

The indifference to this conflict amazes me. Aljazeera reporting conflicts everywhere in the world and very little about Ukraine.

Very few people seem to have grasped the potential seriousness of this conflict.

There is no cease fire, there is no withdrawal of weaponry. Does Putin even have control over his troops?

Feanor · Feb 17, 2015

gazzzwp said:
The cease fire appears to be in tatters. What does the crystal ball say about what the future holds?

How much longer can the Ukranian resources hold out? If the flow of superior arms keeps coming across the border then surely the Ukranians will keep being rolled back.

What is the predicted halt line? Will they just continue all the way to Kiev?

What do you guys think? Will Russia succeed in drawing the West into the conflict? Will the West be forced to sacrifice the Ukraine and settle for bolstering it's defenses inside NATO borders while being forced to accept the newly expanded Russian territory? Is this Hungary all over again?

The writing is on the wall as they say.

Panicky non-sense. The rebels are incapable of any large scale offensives. They've barely managed to close Debal'tsevo and then only because Ukraine doesn't seem to be willing to maneuver. Ever. They're not going to take Kiev. They're not even going to Kharkov or Zaporozhye. Chances are they won't even take Mariupol', though I suppose that one is at least possible.

Meanwhile, the cease-fire is holding - mostly. The only places fighting is continuing is the Debal'tsevo pocket. Ukraine is continuing to try to break through, to the city, but failing, meanwhile the rebels are pushing into Debal'tsevo slowly, but surely.

Feanor · Feb 17, 2015

Nick underscore said:
All depends if this 'interference' from the RF begins to actually cease. If it did, yes I do over ~5-6years

They've had 20. They have yet to do so. You think this particular oligarch and thief is going to be the one that does it?

No, but the 'carrot' is there to follow.

It's not a carrot for the elites. The elites want the protection of the west, but don't want to be held accountable to those standards.

Badly burned? Really? Let's wait till the 28th of Feb and see what the Greeks actually do, instead of listening to the wonderful rhetoric.

Maybe not badly burned, but Ukraine isn't Greece, and probably won't be Greece in the next decade. Hell today Ukraine isn't even Romania.

Thanks for the update. Can they equip the Mech Bgdes from storage and to what % you think? I'm sure the Arty's could with old stock

No. They can get the towed arty, and probably get the trucks/cars. But armor-wise, no. They can't equip them. Unless of course someone delivers massive amounts of aid.

Nick underscore · Feb 17, 2015

Feanor said:
They've had 20. They have yet to do so. You think this particular oligarch and thief is going to be the one that does it?

I don't disagree regarding the last 20years, but at some point, change will happen. Do I think Poroshenko is the person? I'm still yet to be totally convinced.

It's not a carrot for the elites. The elites want the protection of the west, but don't want to be held accountable to those standards.

The carrot concept could be conceived by some (elites), as 'protection' others will look at it as economic opportunity. Those standards become 'tighter', once the country becomes closer to membership

Maybe not badly burned, but Ukraine isn't Greece, and probably won't be Greece in the next decade. Hell today Ukraine isn't even Romania.

I know. Today Ukraine is still very much an economic and political basketcase. I'm not denying this. Change takes time, when its actually implemented seriously. The real potential for the Ukraine is there. Both of the countries you have mentioned above, could be in the 'rear view' mirror of Ukraine over 10-15 yrs.. I'll say it again, the potential of the Ukraine economic model is attractive in many unique respects, but to get thee takes time, money and the want to change.

No. They can get the towed arty, and probably get the trucks/cars. But armor-wise, no. They can't equip them. Unless of course someone delivers massive amounts of aid.

cheers for response. Strange to call these Mech and not Airmobile. Curious as to whether those 4 Inf bgdes mentioned a week back relate to these units.

BlueRose · Feb 17, 2015

Update regarding the Debaltsevo operation:

Rebels claim to have 80% control of the city now. Apparently large groups of UA personnel have begun surrendering. Surprisingly some mainstream media sources are reporting on this, even though Ukraine denied the Cauldron's existence during the ceasefire signing, so it was technically rebel land anyways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoF_bb9-D9A
REPORTS: Pro-Moscow rebels captures railway town of Debaltseve - Business Insider

Alexander Zakharchenko, Alexi Mozgovoi, and several other Rebel leaders are already touring Debaltsevo. Alexander also speaks calmly and frankly to Ukrainian prisoners.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu22mdFATAM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpJYzfxigs8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWNYcAqSfBc

Musashi_kenshin · Feb 17, 2015

BlueRose said:
even though Ukraine denied the Cauldron's existence during the ceasefire signing, so it was technically rebel land anyways

That's a ridiculous position to take. There was a general agreement for a ceasefire. To say it doesn't apply to somewhere because it's not officially specified holds no logic. You have a ceasefire or you don't.

You might as well say that because the Mariupol front wasn't specified it would be ok for the rebels to try to smash their way through and seize that city too.

The fact Putin tried to delay the ceasefire (so the rebels could take the enclave) shows that he understood what a ceasefire meant. Unfortunately it seems like he/and or the rebels can't be trusted, because they won't respect any agreement they don't like 100%.

Rimasta · Feb 17, 2015

BlueRose said:
Alexander Zakharchenko, Alexi Mozgovoi, and several other Rebel leaders are already touring Debaltsevo. Alexander also speaks calmly and frankly to Ukrainian prisoners.

That's interesting you say that. Russian news is reporting that Alexander Zakharchenko has been wounded in the leg and has been evacuated from the area. Regarding the prisoners, those reports are unconfirmed. The rebels report mass surrenders whereas the UA reports a column was ambushed trying to relieve the pocket but the there have been no mass surrendering. Someone is lying, and neither side has monopoly on the truth unfortunately. The fighting is still raging, yet you make it sound like it's already over. Not until the fat lady sings.

The town is behind the agreed upon withdrawl line for the UA, isn't it? So doesn't that mean the town belongs to the Ukraine, according to the supposed agreement? The rebels arugment is that (it's surrounded so it's ours). That seems like they are altering the terms of the ceasefire, potentially making the whole ceasefire fall apart, and prompting arms deliveries to the Ukraine from the United States. Did anyone recall President Obama saying ARMA delivers were a real possibility should the ceasefire fail. It's probably not the best idea that leaves everyone with a feel good feeling but what else can be done? NATO won't intervrne with its forces, so the only other alternatives are to increase the cost to Russia which means, more sanctions from the EU, more advanced weapons to the UA (despite practicality issues in supplying arms, it is a strong message nonetheless), so Russian need to ask themselves as do the "rebels". Is the town of DebalSteve really worth an escalation with the west?

BlueRose · Feb 17, 2015

Musashi_kenshin said:
That's a ridiculous position to take. There was a general agreement for a ceasefire. To say it doesn't apply to somewhere because it's not officially specified holds no logic. You have a ceasefire or you don't.

You might as well say that because the Mariupol front wasn't specified it would be ok for the rebels to try to smash their way through and seize that city too.

The fact Putin tried to delay the ceasefire (so the rebels could take the enclave) shows that he understood what a ceasefire meant. Unfortunately it seems like he/and or the rebels can't be trusted, because they won't respect any agreement they don't like 100%.

Debaltstevo was already surrounded before negotiations started. In fact the agreement specified the Rebel's right to Self Governance and Policing via Militias. The rebels have offered and are still offering the surrounded personnel to drop there weapons and freely go. The Ukrainian Command has denied such an existence of a Cauldron though, until now.

They won't be able to launch an offensive towards Mariupol anyways, not until spring or summer anyways. Plus there manpower is limited.

The ceasefire was delayed, both parties wanted to be the ones who came out on top. The negotiations themselves took longer than expected, Ukraine refused to recognize or speak with DPR/LPR representatives till the end. To be fair and honest, I doubt this ceasefire will last anyways. It will appear to last until spring, then warm weather operations will commence from both sides.

My Personal Take: To be fair and honest, I doubt this ceasefire will last anyways. It will appear to last until spring, then warm weather operations will commence from both sides. If the west starts arming Ukraine before the Summer, then more than likely Russia will intervene fully and resolve the situation. I've already linked Nato small arms that have been captured, and a possible m109a1 shell. If they start shipping in big equipment, that will be a red line from which Russia won't ignore.

Musashi_kenshin · Feb 17, 2015

BlueRose said:
Debaltstevo was already surrounded before negotiations started.

Which would mean at best it would have to stay surrounded until a resolution could be agreed.

If Rimasta is right, the rebels should have withdrawn.

They won't be able to launch an offensive towards Mariupol anyways, not until spring or summer anyways.

So this is just a temporary ceasefire until the rebels get into a better position. Hmm....

If they start shipping in big equipment, that will be a red line from which Russia won't ignore.

What's Putin going to do - equip the rebels with Su-35s and ICBMs? He's already given them loads of conventional weapons. Not sure how he can escalate things further - unless he wants to invade Ukraine, overthrow the elected government and put a puppet in power.

Plus given he has given the rebels so much heavy equipment already, I don't see how he can object to countries providing similar arms to a sovereign country like Ukraine. But then I guess the fact he keeps denying he's been giving them stuff makes it ok for him to keep doing so, whilst it's wrong for countries to help Ukraine because he doesn't want Kiev to have a stronger position.

BlueRose · Feb 17, 2015

Rimasta said:
That's interesting you say that. Russian news is reporting that Alexander Zakharchenko has been wounded in the leg and has been evacuated from the area. Regarding the prisoners, those reports are unconfirmed. The rebels report mass surrenders whereas the UA reports a column was ambushed trying to relieve the pocket but the there have been no mass surrendering. Someone is lying, and neither side has monopoly on the truth unfortunately. The fighting is still raging, yet you make it sound like it's already over. Not until the fat lady sings.

I've been reading the same news reports, even reports that he was dead. Though that's not the case, as evident in my links. He has profound security around him at all times. Ukrainians are surrendering, the fact is they both lied on this. Not as many Ukrainians are surrendering as they are saying. Added in: He was in fact just recently wounded, while in Debaltstevo. Injury seems shrapnel related and not serious. Here he is visited by the LPR Minister. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5170kP7lNs

The town is behind the agreed upon withdrawl line for the UA, isn't it? So doesn't that mean the town belongs to the Ukraine, according to the supposed agreement? The rebels arugment is that (it's surrounded so it's ours). That seems like they are altering the terms of the ceasefire, potentially making the whole ceasefire fall apart, and prompting arms deliveries to the Ukraine from the United States. Did anyone recall President Obama saying ARMA delivers were a real possibility should the ceasefire fail. It's probably not the best idea that leaves everyone with a feel good feeling but what else can be done? NATO won't intervene with its forces, so the only other alternatives are to increase the cost to Russia which means, more sanctions from the EU, more advanced weapons to the UA (despite practicality issues in supplying arms, it is a strong message nonetheless), so Russian need to ask themselves as do the "rebels". Is the town of DebalSteve really worth an escalation with the west?

You're right overall and I agree. If the Ukrainian's were perhaps upfront and admitting such a Cauldron existed, maybe some special terms would have been added. Though, the Rebels offer still stands, drop your weapons and go wherever you want. This area is too strategic for both the Rebels and Ukrainians to compromise on. As in my reply to Musashi, I expect this ceasefire to break apart real soon, by spring.

Arming Ukraine is such a hot issue to debate on. I suspect Russia will fully invade at the moment this occurs, I believe that's the Redline they've set in private, and why the West hasn't armed Ukraine yet. We shall see in the near future though!

Feanor · Feb 17, 2015

Guys regarding the agreement, you're both misreading it. It says that the rebels will pull their heavy weapons back from the original line from Minsk-1. The Ukrainian military will pull back their heavy weapons from the current front line. This would effectively create a zone under rebel control with no heavy weapons, and a smaller zone under Ukrainian control with no heavy weapons. However Ukraine is still attacking towards Debal'tsevo, which means they're ignoring the cease-fire. And the rebels say they're "disarming" government troops "inside their territory". Which means they're ignoring the cease-fire.

So it's not a case of one of the other side being at fault. Both are completely disregarding the cease-fire around Debal'tsevo.

Here's what you should keep in mind. Technically the rebels shouldn't be pushing into Debal'tsevo, since they didn't hold it on Feb 15th. But technically Ukraine isn't allowed to resupply it. Ever. Because they don't have a route to do so by. So if we take the agreement at the letter, the Ukrainian troops in the pocket are left to slowly starve, while the rebels can't enter the town. Obviously that's not going to happen in practice. You can't seriously expect Ukraine to just leave their troops there to die. Which means they're locked into trying to open the pocket. On the other hand the rebels aren't just going to let government troops to open the pocket. And clearing Debal'tsevo completely would put an end to government attempts to break through to it.

Ukranian Crisis

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