Feanor said:
In '14 Russia really could roll in and expect entire units to surrender and many local governments to shrug and simply accept the change in management. In '22 that was no longer the case.
I would go even further: Russia could have annexed or afiliated Crimea and the Donbas with democratic means... had they been patient and clever enough, with good advertising. They made a referedum which was not recognised while they could have won in a recognised referendum.
Feanor said:
They have to give up the only real leverage they have over Ukraine, continuation of hostilities.
Yes and no. Yes, because in practice, it will give Ukraine a much needed relief. No, because, it's not really something they
give or give back.
Also keep in mind that Ukraine too would
give up the only real leverage they have over Russia, in the same way. Russian troops also need a relief. it's not 0%-100%. it's rather 30%-100%.
Feanor said:
If Ukraine took this peace deal, then Ukrainian naval operations off the coast of Crimea would be a provocation, but so would Ukrainian military operations in or against any occupied areas that aren't recognized as Russian.
If we are talking about a truce or an agreement not to attack the other anymore and Ukraine is blatantly breaching this agreement, then yes. But it's more complicated than just black or white. If both parties gradually test the other and if the tit for that degenerates, then the fact that a territory under attack was recognised, not only by Ukraine but by the international community as Russian could be a strong argument against Ukraine in the diplomatic war. if it's not recognised, well, it's just Ukraine recovering its sovereignty over its own territory.
The other thing is the irreversibility of such decision. If they recognise it, it means that they can forget about this terroritory for ever. For ever. If they don't, then there is still a small hope that in 10 or 20 years things will change so much that this land will be back to Ukraine, maybe peacefuly, or that this land will be independant from Russia and independant but friendly to Ukraine if they decide so.
Feanor said:
Ok, out of the 5 provinces Russia controls most or all of, which do you consider the least recoverable? Don't forget to factor in which areas Russia will be willing to go the farthest to defend.
Military speaking, I think that they are all evenly almost unrecoverable with the current forces Ukraine has at their disposal now. That Russia would go as far as it takes for any of the oblast.
Mariupol, Zaporyzhia and Kherson are less accessible because of the Surovikin Line as we have witnessed in 2023, but there are more Russian troops in the Donbas.
If Ukrainians can break the Surovikin Line it would be very difficult for the Russians to resuply their troops south of Kherson and in Crimea. If Ukrainians see a possibility of this to happen, they will also blow up the Kerch Bridge for good.
By contrast, in the Donbass, resupply can flow uninterrupted by the multiple routes thanks to the absence of natural barrier. It's basically like attacking Kursk.
Feanor said:
NATO membership means the potential for NATO offensive facilities stationed there.
There is no such a thing as "
NATO offensive facilities". If Russians keep quiet, NATO keeps quiet. That's the basis.
Feanor said:
And if the deal is signed, and the war is done, what exactly would prevent Ukraine from signing these agreements with France, Germany, and the UK?
Putin could prevent it by requiring explicitely that this won't happen. It will depends on the wording, but if we have someting like "not with NATO or with any NATO member", then legally, it's prevented.
Feanor said:
If Europe is willing, Russia won't be able to do much about it.
....
I don't think Ukraine can domestically mass-produce APCs, IFVs, MBTs, or complex AA. I think in those areas Europe will have to step up.
That's the whole point of the discussion around the tables. That's precisely what Europe wants and Russia doesn't want. Trump's America also doesn't want that because Trump wants his peace deal no matter the outcome. He wants the peace deal because he wants to make businees with both Russia and Ukraine. But Europe would like the US to participate in the defense of Ukraine. And they won't get that with Trump. So the big question is: Will Europe be able to do it? Honestly, I can't answer this question.
Feanor said:
They're losing population
Yes and no. Ukrainians outside Ukraine are still firmly Ukrainians. Even if they don't want to come back to their country now, they still support it. Many will come back once the war is over. Because people like their country, and also because social aid for the refugees will be cut.
Feanor said:
Unless Ukraine has a path to victory, they need to negotiate before things get worse for them.
They don't have a quick path to victory but they know that things are not going to suddenly unravel in the short distance. As long as they can resist, they will resist.
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