The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Sep 3, 2024

Fredled said:
You will always find naysayers or bits of informations to say that Ukrainian successes are in fact failures, that their effect is the opposite of what was expected, that the front line is collapsing...

No, the front line is not collapsing. Except in the Pokrovsk direction, Russian progress have been terribly slow and in a few spots, while most of the 1000 km front line remains unchanged. They didn't even enter Chasiv Yar, two months after reaching the outskirt of the town. They barely crossed the canal for the n-th time.

They are closing in on Toresk and Vuhledar (which was supposed to be taken 2 years ago), and of course Pokrovsk where they made their only significant advance. Anywhere else, Russian advances have been stopped.

I wouldn't be so quick to argue this. Consider how quickly Russia went from the outskirts of Pavlovka to sweeping through Prechistovka, along the road west-south-west of Ugledar. I suspect there are directions where Ukraine is stretched very thin. Depending on where Russia attacks and where Ukraine deploys their scarce reserves, we may see other locations where Ukraine loses ground quickly. Right now the entire front line from the Pokrovsk axis down to Velikaya Novoselka is in question. Depending on decision made by the two sides, and successes or failures in the field, Ukraine might face a loss of the entire southern Donetsk region over the next 6 months. This would set the stage for a Russian campaign on Slavyansk-Kramatorsk next summer. Or a Russian campaign into Dnepropetrovsk region, if they so desire. The current situation is bad for Ukraine, and has every potential for getting much worse along many other areas other then just Pokrovsk.

And this is without touching the slow but steady collapse of the Seversk salient (where Russian forces recently took Vyemka), or the Russian push towards the Oskol river which is now getting close, or the continued Russian advances in Toretsk, or the recaptured of practically the entire Rabotino salient, negating much of the painful and bloody gains Ukraine made last summer. Russia is not going to take Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, or Zaporozhye, any time soon. And a cross-Dnepr assault is even less likely in my opinion. But it doesn't mean the situation is rosy. It's not, and the current developments are generally all negative for Ukraine. Selidovo is bigger than Krasnogorovka, yet compare the pace of the gains there. Both took place this year, geographically both are in the same area, and in principle Selidovo is the tougher target (with the two large refuse mounds on the north-east forming, in theory, perfect natural forts).

KipPotapych · Sep 3, 2024

Capt. Ironpants said:
When I saw that video earlier today, I thought it was terrifying. I looked it up, and it seems it's not quite as horrific as it looks, if this article is correct:

Rather than staying in one place, the moving drone spreads the product of the thermite reaction along its flight path as it burns. This is not likely to cause casualties. The droplets of molten iron fall like a sprinkle of white-hot rain, but anyone in a bunker or covered trench will be safe and even in the open troops in helmets and body armor are well protected, so long as they do not make the mistake of looking up.

What the thermite rain will do though is set alight any flammable material it falls on. After a dry summer, crops and vegetation burns easily and the thermite spray leaves hundreds of thousands of tiny fires in its wake. As the video shows, some of these spread and join up to create larger conflagrations. The combined effect of smoke and flame may present more of a problem to occupying troops and force them to abandon the position.

...Though spectacular, the new weapon is unlikely to be decisive. Thermite fire will not destroy Russian positions, unless applied more intensively, but it will certainly strip away protective cover. Perhaps more importantly, the effect of Dragonfire drones on morale may be considerable, and this ultimately be Russia’s weak spot.

Link:
‘Dragonfire’: Flamethrowing Drone Burns Up Russian Positions

You guys are a much better judge of this than I. Do you think this is correct?

Glad to see you around, Captain Ironpants.

From my very basic understanding of the subject matter, the description in the article is accurate. While this may present much bigger concern for the Russians, this still falls into the same category of MLRS and air-to-air missiles on the Ukrainian sea drones. It does look menacing though, for sure. And it surely shows the potential for future development.

Fredled · Sep 3, 2024

@Feanor I agree that the situation is very bad for Ukraine. But I disagree that the front line is collapsing or that the Russian advance is fast or that it was accelerating. From snail pace to sludge pace, it's not an acceleration. The situation is not very bad because of the speed of the Russian advance. It's very bad because Putin has not yet taken the decision to stop the war, and instead deploys even more troops to invade Ukraine. This forces the Ukrainians to deploy more troops to stop the Russians and to suffer greater losses. And nobody knows how long Ukrainians can withstand their losses without breaking suddenly.

I don't think that the battle can last indefinitely, the way it is now. One day, one of the two sides will break and the other will be able to push several hundreds of km in their direction in a matter of days. As Russians are rather advancing and Ukrainians rather retreating, the odds of an Ukrainian collapse are higher than a Russian one at the moment.
I don;t expect the slow grinding to last another year with so many losses on both sides. Things will unfold faster, IMO, either by Ukrainians regaining an advantage or the Russians keeping their.

Feanor · Sep 3, 2024

Fredled said:
@Feanor I agree that the situation is very bad for Ukraine. But I disagree that the front line is collapsing or that the Russian advance is fast or that it was accelerating. From snail pace to sludge pace, it's not an acceleration. The situation is not very bad because of the speed of the Russian advance. It's very bad because Putin has not yet taken the decision to stop the war, and instead deploys even more troops to invade Ukraine. This forces the Ukrainians to deploy more troops to stop the Russians and to suffer greater losses. And nobody knows how long Ukrainians can withstand their losses without breaking suddenly.

Russia's offensive went at ~100 sq km a month from October to April. Now it's more like 400 sq kms per month. Within the context of hundreds of thousands of sq kms it's not much. But the trajectory is telling.

Case in point, Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from the old front line north of Krasnogorovka as Russian forces are assaulting Zhelannoe Pervoe. Russian forces are also advancing inside Selidovo, and are on the outskirts of Ukrainsk. The southern direction is developing.

Colonelcassad

ВС РФ взяли под полный контроль Невельское, а так же ведут бои ща контроль над населенными пунктами: Лесовка и Желанное-1е. На видео кадры боев за Лесовку и Желанное-1. врезка: @z_arhiv видео: @VoZmezdie2022

t.me

Suriyakmaps

After 921 days of bloody warfare the entire Ukrainian defense line of 2014 has fallen under Russian control.

t.me

I don't think that the battle can last indefinitely, the way it is now. One day, one of the two sides will break and the other will be able to push several hundreds of km in their direction in a matter of days. As Russians are rather advancing and Ukrainians rather retreating, the odds of an Ukrainian collapse are higher than a Russian one at the moment.
I don;t expect the slow grinding to last another year with so many losses on both sides. Things will unfold faster, IMO, either by Ukrainians regaining an advantage or the Russians keeping their.

That's curious. I knew there were major losses relatively speaking, and I know a collapse for one or the other side has to come eventually, but you really think it's this close? I would not have been surprised to see this be a 4 year war, since the losses numerically aren't that big compared to the populations. For Ukraine, what do you think the bottleneck is? Getting enough people into uniform? Pushing enough through the training centers?

hauritz · Sep 3, 2024

Capt. Ironpants said:
When I saw that video earlier today, I thought it was terrifying. I looked it up, and it seems it's not quite as horrific as it looks, if this article is correct:

Rather than staying in one place, the moving drone spreads the product of the thermite reaction along its flight path as it burns. This is not likely to cause casualties. The droplets of molten iron fall like a sprinkle of white-hot rain, but anyone in a bunker or covered trench will be safe and even in the open troops in helmets and body armor are well protected, so long as they do not make the mistake of looking up.

What the thermite rain will do though is set alight any flammable material it falls on. After a dry summer, crops and vegetation burns easily and the thermite spray leaves hundreds of thousands of tiny fires in its wake. As the video shows, some of these spread and join up to create larger conflagrations. The combined effect of smoke and flame may present more of a problem to occupying troops and force them to abandon the position.

...Though spectacular, the new weapon is unlikely to be decisive. Thermite fire will not destroy Russian positions, unless applied more intensively, but it will certainly strip away protective cover. Perhaps more importantly, the effect of Dragonfire drones on morale may be considerable, and this ultimately be Russia’s weak spot.

Link:
‘Dragonfire’: Flamethrowing Drone Burns Up Russian Positions

You guys are a much better judge of this than I. Do you think this is correct?

Using it on civilian targets such as crops is technically a warcrime. Incendiary weapons aren’t new. I don’t think it is game changing but I certainly think it will give soldiers hiding in tree lines or trenches something else to think about. It wouldn’t be as effective as napalm but I don’t imagine having even comparatively small amounts of molten metal poured on you would be a pleasant experience.

KipPotapych · Sep 4, 2024

hauritz said:
Using it on civilian targets such as crops is technically a warcrime. Incendiary weapons aren’t new. I don’t think it is game changing but I certainly think it will give soldiers hiding in tree lines or trenches something else to think about. It wouldn’t be as effective as napalm but I don’t imagine having even comparatively small amounts of molten metal poured on you would be a pleasant experience.

Yes, for sure. But I think the main concern would be rather fast and well targeted elimination of any and all cover and exposure of positions, including trenches, bunkers, etc. These were most significant in defending against Ukrainian offensive last summer.

Fredled · Sep 4, 2024

@Feanor I don;t think it's close, but it won't last like that 10 years. It's true that none of the two countries have been fully mobilizing. I think that it's because the number of soldiers is not as relevant as in prior wars. I think that it's limited, not by political decision or by the unwillingness of the population, but by the equipment available and by the training required to use this equipment.
A sniper and instructor said an interview that if you give a gun and a helmet to a newbie, he will be basically useless in combat. It takes at least 2 months and half for basic training, and they still didn't even start with advanced systems and vehicles...
__________________
About the thermite drone: It's a little bit more than reducing foliage. On the video we see a secondary explosion. If it falls on ammunitions, they may explode. If it falls on soldiers, it can cause serious burns. It won't cross a helmet, but it will cross most clothes, albeit maybe not winter ones or raincoat. It depends on the intensity.
Anyway, getting that effect from a quad or hexcopter drone is remarkable.

Feanor · Sep 4, 2024

Update.

Not I started working on this yesterday but didn't finish it. As of right now today we don't have the next batch of map updates, and things are quiet about what's going on in Selidovo, Zhelannoe Pervoe, or other areas where we would expect to see action. It's possible we've got some fog of war and things are happening even now. It's also possible they're not. Unfortunately neither side bothers to forward their internal reports to me.

Kursk front.

Ukraine has taken the villages of Malaya Loknya, Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Orlovka, Mar'evka and Pogrevki. Near Martynovka some ground changed hands back and forth without any significant changes.

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Военный Осведомитель

Пикап с кайфующими украинскими солдатами, попавший в засаду российских бойцов в Курской области. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia hits a Ukrainian M577s in Kursk region. I suspect it's likely these vehicles are being used as regular APCs.

vk.com

Ukrainian Humvee hit by an FPV drone, Kursk region, outcome unclear.

Украинские власти заявляют, что колонной грузовиков под Сумами, атакованной вчера в ночи "Искандерами" и РСЗО, якобы оказались простые зерновозы. Сообщается, что всего поврежденными и уничтоженными оказались около 20 автомобилей. Основным вопросом является количество успешно выведенных из...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России разгромила колонну врага под Сумами, не дав ей пойти на Курск ▪️Наши разведчики обнаружили скопление тыловых резервов противника к югу от Сум, которые враг мог отправить для атак на Курское направление. Было принято решение дождаться их концентрации для максимального удара...

t.me

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Russia hits the positions of some vehicles and infantry. Allegedly this is a strike on 3 HIMARS TELs however we can't really make it out. Personnel flee from the strike and are picked up by two vehicles that are labeled evacuation group in the videos. They explosions from the strike are also quite large and it's one missile per strike. There do appear to be secondary explosions. They're definitely hitting something, and we have people moving around. But see directly above... that was also "something". This is Sumy border area.

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России сожгла три замаскированные установки HIMARS в 20 км от Сум, откуда они поддерживали атаки на Курскую область Помимо пусковых установок, также уничтожены транспортные средства и более 30 боевиков. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

And another video very similar to the one above, allegedly a M270 MLRS. It does look like the boxy vehicle we would expect, and it's interesting that the first Iskander misses, with the second one hitting it. Note Ukraine definitely concentrated assets of this type to attack Russian pontoon bridges across the Seym. And since last fall Russia has demonstrated the ability to find and hit dynamic targets much deeper then before. So it's not inconceivable that Russia has taken this opportunity to take out a number of Ukrainian longer range missile systems. However the video just isn't good enough. If all the videos we have are accurate, Russia has done quite a number on Ukraine's M270/HIMARS fleet.

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Военный Осведомитель

Удары ракет ОТРК "Искандер-М" по месту расположения, предположительно, пусковой установки РСЗО M270 в лесу возле села Садки прямо у границы Сумской и Курской области. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Координаты: 51.103336, 35.158645 На кадрах можно заметить перемещение в укрытие характерной "квадратной"...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Армия России продолжает массово сжигать американские HIMARS и MLRS, поддерживающие атаки на Курскую область ▪️Разведчики вскрыли позицию очередной РСЗО М270 MLRS вблизи н.п. Садки Сумской области . ▪️В результате удара высокоточным ракетным вооружением ВС РФ была уничтожена MLRS и боевики ВСУ...

t.me

Russian strike on a Ukrainian MLRS of some sort. Allegedly a Czech Vampir.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

«Северяне» сожгли НАТОвского «Вампира», поддерживавшего наступление на Курскую область ▪️Разведчики группировки войск «Север» выявили движение и стрельбу чешской реактивной системы залпового огня Vampire ВСУ в Сумской области. ▪️В результате удара высокоточным снарядом «Краснополь» «Вампир»...

t.me

Russia hit allegedly a Ukrainian Buk-M1 battalion in Sumy region. I can't tell what they're hitting but there appear to be secondary explosions.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Армия России разгромила дивизион ЗРК, прикрывавший вторжение в Курскую область ▪️Российские войска успешно провели операцию по уничтожению замаскированного дивизиона ЗРК «Бук-М1» ВСУ в районе н.п. Новая Сечь Сумской области. ▪️В результате атаки были уничтожены ключевые элементы дивизиона...

t.me

Russia hit the university building in Sumy, it's unclear what they intended. They also hit an old shoe factory that was allegedly repurposed to assemble UAVs, and a machinebuilding plant of some sort.

Военный Осведомитель

Сообщают о вечернем прилете по зданию университета в Сумах. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Dambiev

Местные жители осуществляют объективный контроль последствий авиаудара по территории бывшей обувной фабрики в Сумах, которая использовалась для сборки беспилотников.

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Авиаудар по цехам на западной окраине города Сумы, где производилась сборка беспилотников. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Удары нанесены по промышленным объектам в Сумах, которые использовали ВСУ ▪️Сумы и область враг использует для концентрации войск для атак на Курскую область. ▪️Под удары попали производственное и складское помещения, а также цех, сообщила сумская областная прокуратура. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Точнейший удар ФАБа с УМПК по цеху Ямпольского механического завода в Сумской области, где ВСУ прятали технику и личный состав. @warriorofnorth

Хохлы тащат в тыл подбитый в Курской области БРЭМ-1 #сво #потери_врага #спец_техника

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Вид с Wisent 1 MC ВСУ где-то на Курском фронте. По дороге Challenger ARV тянет БРЭМ-1 с поврежденной ходовой. Источник.

t.me

Feanor · Sep 4, 2024

Kharkov front.

A Ukrainian T-64BV burns in Volchansk, allegedly after a Russian drone strike.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Бои в Волчанске: армия России сжигает танки врага ▪️В ходе боёв за Волчанск нашим штурмовикам оказывают поддержку операторы «Ланцетов», помогая уничтожать бронетехнику и артиллерию. ▪️На видео уничтожение танка точным попаданием барражирующего боеприпса. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

В Волчанске, на остановке «Памятник Трактору» FPV-дронами был подбит, а затем и уничтожен очередной танк Т-64БВ ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

vk.com

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‼️ Враг нанес очередной удар по гражданским объектам в Белгородской области — губернатор Белгородской области ▪️В Шебекино в результате обстрела погиб человек, еще двое ранены. ▪️Повреждены административное здание и социальный объект. Сгорело авто. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Последствия ракетного обстрела пригорода Белгорода со стороны ВСУ. На текущий момент известно о гибели как минимум одного человека, еще семеро пострадали. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

‼️‍☠️Ракеты «Искандер» ударили по объектам в Харькове, которые враг использовал для размещения боевиков ▪️Неработающий Дворец Спорта "Палац" боевики давно превратили в пункт базирования. ▪️"Будет много некрологов по военным", - после удара написал украинский журналист Шарий. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

A Russian Grom-1 munition was used during one of the recent strikes in Kharkov.

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Russian gliding bomb strikes around Kharkov.

Dambiev

Прилеты русских ФАБов с УМПК по позициям украинских формирований на Харьковском направлении.

t.me

Russian strike on the Kharkov tank factory.

Colonelcassad

В Харькове мощный прилет по ХТЗ. Есть существенные разрушения и жертвы.

t.me

Russian airstrikes in Volchansk.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Бои в Волчанске: поддержка штурма высокоточным ударом по укрепленной позиции в многоэтажке Разведчики передали координаты укреплений врага, превратившего в крепость многоэтажку, по огневым точкам нанесен высокоточный удар. t.me/RVvoenkor

‼️ Армия России освободила Синьковку в Харьковской области — Минобороны ▪️Минобороны России официально подтвердило освобождение поселка Синьковка на Купянском направлении подразделениями группировки войск "Запад". ▪️Вчера нашими воинами был поднят флаг России над администрацией в центре поселка...

t.me

Russia hits a crossing over the Oskol.

Военный Осведомитель

Х-38 по переправе противника, через реку Оскол, в Купянском районе.

t.me

In the last update we had reports of a Russian bomb strike on the military commissariat in Kupyansk. Now we have video confirmation.

Военный Осведомитель

Прилет ФАБ-3000 по зданию военкомата в Купянске Харьковской области и кадры последствий с земли от украинской полиции. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russia taking out a Ukrainian Grad near Redkodub, Kharkov region. Note this is west of Makeevka, in eastern Kharkov region, so on the Oskol front, in point of fact on the left shore.

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Военный Осведомитель

Эпичное уничтожение огнем артиллерии украинского "Града", укрывшегося после залпа в посадке возле села Редкодуб Харьковской области. Судя по всему, вместе с РСЗО взлетел на воздух и соседствующий рядом склад боеприпасов. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Colonelcassad

Эпичные кадры уничтожения украинской РСЗО БМ-21 «Град»в районе н.п. Редкодуб на фронте Сватово-Кременная. @DKulko

t.me

Feanor · Sep 4, 2024

Seversk salient.

In the north Russian forces are advancing on the hills north of Belogorovka. In the center Russian forces have taken Vyemka, but it appears Ivano-Darievka originally reported under Russian control is still in Ukrainian hands. Lastly, Russian forces have advanced in Pereezdnoe, taking approximately a third of the village.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 921: Situation on Seversk front: Russian Army began the assault to the northern hills of Bilohorivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.91377506251449%2C38.216884788829844&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 921: Situation on eastern front: Russian Army managed to break through the Ukrainian Army defenses in the south of Pereizne taking control over 35% of the locality approximately. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 918: Situation on Pokrovsk front: Russian Army crossed Zhuravka river & captured new parts of Hrodivka (90% of the town is under Russian control now). Map: [...

t.me

On the southern direction several things are happening. Russian forces are assaulting Selidovo gaining the hospital in the south of town, and the suburbs east of it, are on the outskirts of Ukrainsk, and are pushing into Zhelannoe Pervoe. In between Ukrainsk and Galitsinovka, Russia has taken Dolinovka. This three-pronged assault makes it harder for Ukraine to concentrate their defenses at one spot and based on what reports I've seen it seems Ukraine has chosen to defend Selidovo, a choice both logical and most impactful as it both blocks at least partly the route to Kurakhovo, and to Pokrovsk from the south. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have begun falling back from the large pocket between Karlovka, Nevel'skoe, and Krasnogorovka. We don't know what line Ukrainian forces are falling back to, and Russian advances here don't seem to be the results of attacks, rather the results of a Ukrainian withdrawal.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 922: Situation northwest of Donetsk city: Russian Army entered in the localities of Lisivka & Zhelanne Pershe. Due to the proximity of the Russian troops to the last supply line to the western front of Donetsk city Ukrainian Army began the withdrawal to the west which...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Новогродовка на Покровском направлении имела невыгодное географическое положение, поэтому ВСУ быстро бежали из города, - офицер ▪️Такое оправдание озвучил офицер 59 ОМБр Сергей Цехоцкий, комментируя потерю города с некогда 14 000 населением за считанные дни. ▪️"Было принято решение отвести...

t.me

Russian forces raising the flag in Galitsinovka, Karlovka, and the mine complex in Novogrodovka respectively.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️ Бойцы 114 бригады установили флаг России в н.п. Галицыновка. Группировки войск "Центр" генерала Мордвичева продолжает громить врага на Покровском направлении. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

VK.com | VK

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Colonelcassad

В Карловке подняли флаг батальона "Сомали". Карловка освобождается от украинской оккупации, в которой находилась 10 лет.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Российские штурмовики установили флаг над шахтой №1 в Новогродовке Судя по видео с коптера, город остался целым, всушники предпочли сбежать, а не превращать дома жителей в свои укрепы.

t.me

Russian FPV drone hits a Caesar howitzer near Tsukurino. Note the drone loses signal so we don't see the moment of impact, and we don't have BDA footage.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Военный Осведомитель

Севернее посёлка Цукурино, оператор БПЛА при помощи FPV-дрона поразил 155-мм САУ Caesar ВСУ. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed near Selidovo.

Colonelcassad

В районе города Селидово наши бойцы подбили танк Т64БВ, в результате чего у него произошел взрыв боекомплекта.

t.me

An M1 burns somewhere near Pokrovsk.

Colonelcassad

Еще один горящий "Абрамс" на Красноармейском направлении. Забили FPV-дронами. Видео https://t.me/Ugolok_Sitha/21707 "Абрамсы" заканчиваются, а труп Бабченко все еще не найден.

t.me

Russia hits the Druzhba hotel in Pokrovsk.

Colonelcassad

Последствия прилёта по гостинице Дружба в Покровске. 48.282368, 37.175838 - тут. @divannyevoini

t.me

Russian forces capture a knocked out Kirpi MRAP on the Pokrovsk axis.

Colonelcassad

"Не бит, не крашен, но есть нюансы по салону". Бойцы ВС РФ захватили на покровском направлении турецкий бронеавтомобиль BMC Kirpi.

t.me

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Ukrainian POW on the Pokrovsk axis.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Фронт ВСУ трещит по швам: Толпа боевиков сдалась «️тважным» на Покровском направлении ▪️Сегодня боевики 59-й бригады ВСУ приняли лучшее решение в своей жизни и массово сдались в плен бойцам группировки войск "Центр" в районе Михайловки - Галициновки, сообщил В. Соловьёв. ▪️Сдавшийся в плен...

‼️‍☠️Начинается массовая эвакуация Покровского и Краматорского районов ▪️DW рассказала о ситуации в Покровске, к которому приблизилась армия России. Обстрелы не прекращаются ни на минуту. ▪️Поездами из прифронтового города выезжают сотни людей, хотя уже идет эвакуация и самих вокзалов. Основной...

t.me

In Mirnograd Russia struck the halls of the Experimental-Mechanical plant, where Ukraine was allegedly doing vehicle repairs.

Colonelcassad

Около часа назад российскими войсками нанесены удары по объектам противника в Мирнограде (Димитрове). На этот раз целью стала территория Димитровского экспериментально-механического завода (ДЭМЗ). Заводские цеха и оборудование использовались для ремонта и технического обслуживания военной...

t.me

Feanor · Sep 4, 2024

Krasnogorovka-Maksimil'yanovka area.

Russian forces have pushed westward out of Krasnogorovka. Note I will likely soon combine the southern piece of the Pokrovsk axis updates with the Krasnogorovka area as they're closer related to each other at this point then the southern and western portions of the Pokrovsk salient.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 919: Situation west of Donetsk city: Russian Army made new advances west of the town of Krasnogorivka. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.000072690965524%2C37.49690523518289&z=13 ]

t.me

Russian FPV strike on a Ukrainian position, in the basement of a house, outskirts of Krasnogorovka. I suspect we're looking at those northern suburbs.

Colonelcassad

Расчеты ударных FPV-дронов уничтожили пункт временной дислокации подразделений ВСУ под Красногоровкой. Разведчиками «Южной» группировки войск был выявлен пункт временной дислокации украинских боевиков. Во взаимодействии с расчетами БпЛА выявленные цели были уничтожены ударным FPV-дроном...

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ВСУ спасались хаотичным бегством, бросив оружие и боеприпасы, при освобождении Пречистовки - кадры ▪️Дроны морпехов 40-й бригады сняли момент бегства ВСУ из Пречистовки на Южно-Донецком направлении у Угледара. ▪️Подразделения 58-й мотопехотной бригады ВСУ бросили оружие и боеприпасы на...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Боевики ВСУ сбежали из освобожденной Пречистовки в ДНР — момент отступления сняли морпехи 40-й отдельной бригады с беспилотника. Подразделения 58-й отдельной мотопехотной бригады ВСУ бросили оружие и боеприпасы на передовых позициях и ушли в направлении Золотая Нива-Шахтерское, добавили в...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент отступления украинской пехоты из села Золотая Нива, расположенного возле занятого ВС РФ села Пречистовка на западном фланге Угледара. Похоже, что после вывода частей 72-й мехбригады из-под Угледара, противник продолжает сдавать позиции на данном направлении. При этом, данные кадры также...

t.me

Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces continue to advance north of Rabotino. The Ukrainain salient is effectively gone.

vk.com

Feanor · Sep 4, 2024

Strikes.

Russia has carried out a large combined strike on Kiev, targets include the Artem and Antonov factories. Video footage shows some inbounds being intercepted right over the city.

Военный Осведомитель

Сегодня рано утром был нанесен комбинированный удар ракетами Х-101, KN-23 и дронами «Герань-2» по объектам в Киеве. Как сообщается, основной целью выступал завод «Артем», который ранее уже неоднократно подвергался ударам. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Видео работы украинского ПВО во время утреннего ракетного удара по Киеву. Можно определить место расположения самих ЗРК противника, а также заметить моменты перехватов крылатых ракет -некоторые из них сбивают прямо над головами украинских зенитчиков. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ По Киеву ночью нанесены мощные удары ▪️Есть повреждения инфраструктуры, сообщили власти. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

Массировання атака по объектам противника в Киеве и области Сегодня ночью был совершён комбинированный удар с применением крылатых и баллистических ракет, а также ударных беспилотников "Герань-2" по объектам противника в Киеве. Также ночью взрывы прозвучали в Харьковской и Сумской областях. В...

vk.com

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Russia hit the Grand Palace hotel in Zaporozhye, allegedly being used as a Ukrainian staging area.

Военный Осведомитель

Удар по пункту временной дислокации ВСУ, расположенному в гостинице «Гранд Палас» на территории Запорожья. Видео: @The_Wrong_Side Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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vk.com

Russia hit the AV Metal factory in Dnepropetrovsk and apparently another training center, though details there are scarce.

vk.com

Ukrainian drone strikes attempted to hit the Migalovo airfield near Tver'. Results are unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг атакует Тверь: под ударом аэродромом Мигалово Вражеские дроны попытались атаковать аэродромом, сообщают местные тг-каналы. По предварительным данным, есть сбитие БпЛА. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian drone strike hit the Konakovskaya power plant in Tver' region.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Жители Тверской области делятся видео масштабного пожара на Конаковской ГРЭС после атаки врага ▪️По словам губернатора Игоря Рудени, в районе Конаково системой ПВО были успешно сбиты 5 беспилотников. ▪️По предварительным данным, пострадавших нет. На месте работают экстренные службы...

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Нацисты нанесли страшный удар по рынку «Сокол» в Донецке, убивая и калеча людей ▪️Погибли двое мужчин и одна женщина, ещё 5 человек ранены, сообщил глава ДНР Пушилин. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Colonelcassad

21+ Последствия прилета снаряда 155 мм калибра на рынок «Сокол» в Кировском районе Донецке, мкр-н Текстильщик. Погибло 3 человек, минимум 5 получили ранения. @WarInMyEyes

t.me

Feanor · Sep 4, 2024

Interesting bits.

Russia seems to have started using some new munitions on Ukrainian columns. It's well more powerful then an ATGM and can hit a moving target. These might be Kh-38MLs.

Военный Осведомитель

Уже второй случай применения ВКС РФ новых мощных ракет с лазерным или оптическим наведением по движущейся украинской бронетехнике. Видео: @bortzhyrnal Ранее аналогичными боеприпасами были уничтожены бронеавтомобили противника, прорывавшиеся сквозь Коренево в Курской области. До появлениях...

t.me

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Russia continues to use the longer ranged D-30SN gliding bombs in Ukraine. Reportedly their range is over 100 km.

Военный Осведомитель

Высокоточные боеприпасы УМПБ Д-30СН подвешенные на Су-34 ВКС перед боевым вылетом в зону СВО. Фото: @voenacher Военный Осведомитель

t.me

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A fully kitted out Russian BMP-3M with EW station, roof cage, extra armor, and camo-netting.

И еще про камуфляж. И РЭБ.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian exotic recruitment continues, there appear to be Yemeni soldiers serving in the Russian military.

Colonelcassad

Йеменские добровольцы в составе ВС РФ @genshtab24

t.me

A RBU-1200 depth charge launcher on a wheeled carriage, presumably Russian.

bmpd

Реактивный морской бомбомёт РБУ-1200 на станине от зенитной установки ЗУ-23-2. #сво #артиллерия

t.me

The town of Kaluga has apparently purchased and donated a used Mi-8 helo to the war effort.

Военный Осведомитель

Возрождая традиции! После перекраски, надписи на народных машинах продублируем!

t.me

Belarus continues to mass forces on the Ukrainian border with the tactical marking B. I find their entrance into the fight unlikely, especially when Ukraine is still very capable of putting up a fight, but the scale of the buildup is larger then ever before.

Военный Осведомитель

Продолжающаяся переброска частей белорусской армии к границе с Украиной. В кадре танки Т-72Б и ЗРПК (ЗПРК) «Тунгуска» с белыми литерами «В». Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

На вооружении ВСУ засветился иорданский ЗРК 9К35 «Стрела-10» в характерном пустынном камуфляже. Данный ЗРК был модернизирован уже на территории Украины путем установки современного электрооптического визира «Валли» от одесской компании «КБ Технари», позволяющего устаревшим «Стрелам» гораздо...

t.me

Ukrainian ZSU-23-4 that's been repaired and is ready for service. I think they removed the radar, suggesting it will be used for ground support roles.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

«Шилка» ВСУ после ремонта. Фото 242 центр подготовки, 2024 г.

t.me

Reportedly the Netherlands will hand over 28 BvS 10 Viking armored vehicles.

VK.com | VK

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bmpd

Министерство обороны Нидерландов сообщило о передаче Украине из наличия голландской морской пехоты 28 бронированных двухзвенных сочлененных гусеничных транспортеров BvS 10 Viking шведского производства

t.me

Reportedly 60 000 Ukrainian service members are currently undergoing training in EU countries.

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Feanor · Sep 5, 2024

Feanor said:
Allegedly Ukrainian infantry withdrawing from Prechistovka, or according to another source from neighboring Zolotaya Niva. Note we've seem similar images when Ukraine withdrew rapidly from Avdeevka, and Russia's assault on Prechistovka was fairly quick. If the latter is true, it means Russia has made another rapid westward leap in this area.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ВСУ спасались хаотичным бегством, бросив оружие и боеприпасы, при освобождении Пречистовки - кадры ▪️Дроны морпехов 40-й бригады сняли момент бегства ВСУ из Пречистовки на Южно-Донецком направлении у Угледара. ▪️Подразделения 58-й мотопехотной бригады ВСУ бросили оружие и боеприпасы на...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Боевики ВСУ сбежали из освобожденной Пречистовки в ДНР — момент отступления сняли морпехи 40-й отдельной бригады с беспилотника. Подразделения 58-й отдельной мотопехотной бригады ВСУ бросили оружие и боеприпасы на передовых позициях и ушли в направлении Золотая Нива-Шахтерское, добавили в...

t.me

Военный Осведомитель

Момент отступления украинской пехоты из села Золотая Нива, расположенного возле занятого ВС РФ села Пречистовка на западном фланге Угледара. Похоже, что после вывода частей 72-й мехбригады из-под Угледара, противник продолжает сдавать позиции на данном направлении. При этом, данные кадры также...

t.me

The consensus seems to be that this is the Prechistovka withdrawal. Suriyakmaps hasn't updated in a couple of days, however per Kalibrated, Zolotaya Niva has also fallen to Russia. In other words, we have 3 rapid advances in ~3 days. At this point the advances are north of Novodonetsko in the Vremyevskiy Bulge area. Moving forward I'll do a combined section in the updates for everything from Konstantinovka to Velikaya Novoselka, as it's all part of a bigger fight surrounding Ugledar, and possibly pushing on Kurakhovo from the south. What's interesting is that we haven't gotten anything on the Pokrovsk axis for a couple of days now. It's possible Russia is busy chewing through Ukraine's reserves, it's also possible they had to pause to secure the area they rapidly advanced through earlier. Lastly it's possible fog of war is hiding what's happening. However I suspect if there were any rapid movements, information would be leaking out suggesting Russia's advance has halted for one reason or another.

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Sandhi Yudha · Sep 5, 2024

Feanor said:
Update.

Russia hits a Ukrainian M577s in Kursk region. I suspect it's likely these vehicles are being used as regular APCs.

Thank you for collecting and share this all with us.
It is actually incredible that such a small UAV/kamikaze-drone can cause such a huge explosion.

Feanor · Sep 5, 2024

Sandhi Yudha said:
Thank you for collecting and share this all with us.
It is actually incredible that such a small UAV/kamikaze-drone can cause such a huge explosion.

Maybe the vehicle was being used as a munition transport? That's what the post claims. I don't think the drone made the large explosion.

KipPotapych · Sep 5, 2024

Belarus reportedly shot down a UAV over Gomel, which the Russian sources that I saw only identify as a drone that flew in from Ukraine. This is pretty obviously a Russian Shahed that wondered in from Ukraine. There were at least two reportedly crossing the Belorussian border yesterday.

x.com

It appears that Russia is probably using the Belorussian airspace to divert some drones from Ukraine before sending them back for a strike (usually on Kiev and area). I noted previously that the Ukrainian air forces report almost on the daily basis that Shaheds leave to Belarus. I believe what they don’t mention is that they usually come back. It appears that this one didn’t. This is probably the first such reported event, which doesn’t mean it is the first event though.

Feanor said:
Kursk front.

Ukraine has taken the villages of Malaya Loknya, Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Orlovka, Mar'evka and Pogrevki. Near Martynovka some ground changed hands back and forth without any significant changes.

I believe they were taken days/weeks ago. I don’t think there was much progress in Kursk by any side for a while, as in there weren’t any changes to the actual frontline. I find Def Mon to be pretty solid with his maps, here is his last update from the day before yesterday that includes the villages mentioned:

What I see happening for the past couple of weeks is likely still the clarification of the actual frontline. For example, I see that some Russian sources adding a village or two to their maps now and then, while the Ukrainian sources shrinking the Ukrainian control zone. It looks like while there is plenty of active fighting going on, this has become a pretty stable front, at least for now.

An interesting article discussing the “top men” echo chamber. It is hard to believe that these people are serious:

VISEGRAD BLOG: Globsec security forum insists Ukraine is still winning the war

“I would wager that never has the Hilton hotel been so full of Europeans who love America and Americans who love Europe,” said the moderator of ...

www.intellinews.com

In that regard,

I said earlier I would find the videos of the Russian fortifications in Kursk captured by Ukraine and I completely forgot about it. Today Rob Lee posted a segment of a longer video showing some of these fortifications. It’s not what I was referring to, but a pretty good example. The full video for those who do not use Twitter:

Or a short segment that Rob had posted:

x.com

Kind of shows you the difference of what Ukrainians show on their “media tours” even and what it should be like. Now only to properly man them so that they actually serve the purpose, lol. Otherwise, as the recent events had shown, you can build the best fortifications in the world and they still have very little meaning if there is no trained personnel in them, taking orders from capable officers.

Syrsky with a “bombshell” in an interview to the CNN today:

And while admitting that Ukraine was under immense pressure in the area around Pokrovsk, the strategic city that has for weeks been the epicenter of war in eastern Ukraine, Syrskyi said his troops have now managed to stall the Russian advances there.

“Over the last six days the enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in the Pokrovsk direction. In other words, our strategy is working.” he said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/05/europe/ukraine-army-chief-kursk-incursion-exclusive-intl/index.html

In the meantime,

And

This is only my assumption, but Russians are probably consolidating, while bombing the Ukrainian positions in the city. I am still not entirely sure they will actually storm Pokrovsk right away and I think there are maybe better options for their efforts as I outlined in my previous post (multiple-posts post). Who knows.

It appears that Russians have finally established a position on the western bank of the Canal and it was now confirmed by Deepstate:

There maybe a very significant military aid package announced by the US in the near future - perhaps, coinciding with Zelensky’s visit.

U.S. President Joe Biden's administration is engaged in urgent discussions with Congress to allow it to use up $6 billion in military aid for Ukraine before a Sept. 30 deadline, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-administration-races-save-billions-ukraine-aid-deadline-looms-2024-09-05/

Something else I had in mind that I wanted to post, but who knows now…

Feanor · Sep 5, 2024

KipPotapych said:
Syrsky with a “bombshell” in an interview to the CNN today:

And while admitting that Ukraine was under immense pressure in the area around Pokrovsk, the strategic city that has for weeks been the epicenter of war in eastern Ukraine, Syrskyi said his troops have now managed to stall the Russian advances there.

“Over the last six days the enemy hasn’t advanced a single meter in the Pokrovsk direction. In other words, our strategy is working.” he said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/05/europe/ukraine-army-chief-kursk-incursion-exclusive-intl/index.html

In the meantime,

And

To be clear it's easy (and at this point accurate) to argue that the southward push out of the Pokrovsk salient isn't an advance towards Pokrovsk at all because... well it isn't. Look at the map. It's an attempt to collapse Ukrainian lines north of Krasnogorovka, an attempt almost doomed to success given the configuration of the front line and how far Ukraine has already let Russia get. Afterwards it will likely be part of an attempt to take Kurakhovo.

And

This is only my assumption, but Russians are probably consolidating, while bombing the Ukrainian positions in the city. I am still not entirely sure they will actually storm Pokrovsk right away and I think there are maybe better options for their efforts as I outlined in my previous post (multiple-posts post). Who knows.

Well this supports the initial claim above. Russia has halted advancing on Pokrovsk and is hitting the Ukrainian forces in there before trying again. As opposed to simply rolling through those forces. If your point is that Russia hasn't given up, and that the strikes on Ukrainian forces also constitute progress since the weaken the defenses, ok. But they're not gaining ground. It might also be the case that they needed time to finish sweeping Novogrodovka which fell quickly but is still a town with a dense urban center that needed to be secured.

On a side note, there have been two Ukrainian counter-attacks developing in the Donbas. One* is in Selidovo where some reports have Ukraine retaking the hospital in the south and the suburbs east of it, and another has Russian forces pushed out of Selidovo towards the refuse mound. Given the speed of Russian advances before this, it would make sense that Russia didn't really dig in. To me the big question is whether Russia will hold that large refuse mound basically inside Selidovo. If Russia holds it, Ukraine's counter-attack is going to have problems. If they lose it, they might have to pull back, reinforce, and try again in a completely separate attempt.

Earlier when you talked about 2-3 weeks to Pokrovsk I mentioned the difficulties of taking towns like Selidovo for Russia. I still stand by my original assessment. Pokrovsk by year's end would be a great success for Russia and is by no means guaranteed.

* The other is in Novgorodskoe where it appears Ukraine's forces in the phenol plant never withdrew and a successful deblockading attack has just been made, though whether the intent is to have them evacuate, or reinforce and hold the spot is unclear.

KipPotapych · Sep 6, 2024

Feanor said:
To be clear it's easy (and at this point accurate) to argue that the southward push out of the Pokrovsk salient isn't an advance towards Pokrovsk at all because... well it isn't. Look at the map. It's an attempt to collapse Ukrainian lines north of Krasnogorovka, an attempt almost doomed to success given the configuration of the front line and how far Ukraine has already let Russia get. Afterwards it will likely be part of an attempt to take Kurakhovo.

Yes, I agree. Then further south, if it works out for them. Like I said in my “long” post, I would probably be more worried about that development than Pokrovsk at this moment.

Probably the worst thing for Ukraine now is that Russia actually has options in their push. I wonder if they can do both after consolidating, digging in, etc. I guess the first question to answer would be whether they can do one.

Feanor said:
Well this supports the initial claim above. Russia has halted advancing on Pokrovsk and is hitting the Ukrainian forces in there before trying again. As opposed to simply rolling through those forces.

Yes, and I don't think they can keep rolling and overextending themselves. That would be Kharkiv in 2022 on a smaller scale all over again. I am sure they learned that lesson. There will be a pause with small attacks here and there in that direction, but mainly levelling Pokrovsk, unless the Ukrainian defense crumbles further and significantly. They had to take a pause after Ocheritno (or just a bit after) as well before rolling further. It would probably be a much longer pause here though, I think.

Feanor said:
If your point is that Russia hasn't given up, and that the strikes on Ukrainian forces also constitute progress since the weaken the defenses, ok. But they're not gaining ground. It might also be the case that they needed time to finish sweeping Novogrodovka which fell quickly but is still a town with a dense urban center that needed to be secured.

My point was more in regard to Syrsky’s “logic”: our strategy is working because the Russians didn’t advance a single meter in the direction of Pokrovsk in the last six days. Surely he has a much better understanding than me (not only of the current situation, but in the wide general sense as far as the subject of warfare is concerned), but that is clearly (intentional) dishonesty on his part. He (and we) can call this continued progress made by Russia on that front “no-longer-a-Pokrovsk-direction”, but his deductive logic would still be faulty. I believe this is clear.

Of course, we can also talk about “the enemy didn’t advance a single meter in the Pokrovsk direction in the last six days”, which is also not true (and a hyperbole). Pretty sure there were advances reported by Deepstate and others in (at least) Grodivka a couple or so days ago. Perhaps, there were others as well, but I would have to look. I don’t think that matters much though.

Also, to your point, if there is no enemy advancement on land, but one of your main hubs is being erased and loses significance because the enemy (maybe) felt comfortable to stop where they did, is your strategy still working?

Regardless, I am assuming most saw through what it was and many are having a (sad) laugh about it. A coupe of examples below.

This is in regard to “our strategy is working”:

This one is self-explanatory:

On this note, since I saw the handle, Lovely Lad had a very good thread about the Ukrainian logistics at Kursk that I forgot to post earlier:

Thread by @LovelyLad_ on Thread Reader App

@LovelyLad_: The Ukrainian Logistical and Engineering assets, their limitations and capabilities in Kursk Logistical Analysis Thread Logistics are a major factor in all operations and always have an effect in the o...…

threadreaderapp.com

Feanor said:
On a side note, there have been two Ukrainian counter-attacks developing in the Donbas. One* is in Selidovo where some reports have Ukraine retaking the hospital in the south and the suburbs east of it, and another has Russian forces pushed out of Selidovo towards the refuse mound. Given the speed of Russian advances before this, it would make sense that Russia didn't really dig in. To me the big question is whether Russia will hold that large refuse mound basically inside Selidovo. If Russia holds it, Ukraine's counter-attack is going to have problems. If they lose it, they might have to pull back, reinforce, and try again in a completely separate attempt.

Interesting. Thanks for the insight. Yes, I agree about the speed of their advances. Perhaps the reason for the pause a bit further north. I just don’t see this rate of advance to last anywhere at this point. It just wouldn’t make sense. If it did, the situation for Ukraine is even worse than being reported, but I don’t think this is the case.

Feanor said:
Earlier when you talked about 2-3 weeks to Pokrovsk I mentioned the difficulties of taking towns like Selidovo for Russia. I still stand by my original assessment. Pokrovsk by year's end would be a great success for Russia and is by no means guaranteed.

I hope my comment wasn’t taken as they were going to take Pokrovsk in 2 to 3 weeks, haha. Regardless, we are probably over month away from my comment and they aren’t at Pokrovsk.

No guarantees for anything, for sure, and lots of very smart people have been wrong more often than not in the past 2.5 years. Some are still suggesting in all seriousness that this is all part of some great mastermind plan that we are yet to see coming to life. And hey, maybe a few months from now we will be talking about that very plan (kidding, of course, but there is a little joke/truth in every joke).

Feanor said:
The other is in Novgorodskoe where it appears Ukraine's forces in the phenol plant never withdrew and a successful deblockading attack has just been made, though whether the intent is to have them evacuate, or reinforce and hold the spot is unclear.

Is Novogrodskoe New York? In other words, this

Turned into this

To me it looks more like maybe Russia never had the control of that area in the first place? It’s been less than a week since that weird encirclement was reported and now all of a sudden there was this counterattack and breakthrough, while Russians have advanced on both flanks at the same time. Too weird.

Feanor · Sep 6, 2024

KipPotapych said:
Is Novogrodskoe New York? In other words, this

View attachment 51676

Turned into this

View attachment 51677

To me it looks more like maybe Russia never had the control of that area in the first place? It’s been less than a week since that weird encirclement was reported and now all of a sudden there was this counterattack and breakthrough, while Russians have advanced on both flanks at the same time. Too weird.

That's the one. Russia according to some reports didn't take the phenol plant but instead surrounded some quantity of Ukrainian forces there. Note we never got a good explanation of what that quantity was. A platoon? A btln? Now Ukraine has deblockaded the forces in question. It's not clear if this is an attempt to retake the northern parts of Novgorodskoe, or if it's an attempt to let those forces escape.

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