Can you define "The scum of society" my understanding of much of Russian casualties not only include prisoners but those from very poor oblasts easily persuaded by large sign on bonuses unlike Moscow and St Petersburg , that recruitment seems now to include various members from Africa and Asia many of these have posted online of being promised different deployment but have ended up in the first wave meat grinder to the point they stay in those positions if badly injured
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
What would be the base for these claims? Most are volunteers. Absolute majority undoubtedly believe they are doing the right thing and defending their country. And so on. Not really that opposite, is it?
Scum of society? I would join Seaspear in asking for the definition of such. Even if strictly speaking about prisoners, though by now most of the “front assault” troops are likely not, that is still quite a group of people to shovel together under one ugly name like that.
What about the newly recruited Ukrainian convicts? Scum? Best men?
In other news, this is an excellent “summary” thread (should be readable to everyone) about the Russian dwindling equipment stocks:
Thread by @verekerrichard1 on Thread Reader App
@verekerrichard1: 1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about ...…
threadreaderapp.com
Reuters reported that it will basically take years before Japan can increase the production of PAC-3 missiles due to a shortage of parts (seekers produced by Boeing, in particular). It is safe to assume that this same issue is affecting production everywhere else. According to the article, Boeing’s 30% capacity increase is only expected in 2027.
Trump’s pick of JD Vance for the VP has got to send chills down the backs of Ukrainians. It appears if the election was held today, this couple would be a shoo-in.
Trump’s choice of Vance ‘terrible news’ for Ukraine, Europe experts warn
Running mate likely to push Trump to pursue ‘America first’ foreign policy and deal with Putin to end war in Ukraine
amp.theguardian.com
Ruins of Chasiv Yar in a video posted by a Ukrainian Telegram channel:
Повернись живим
Так зараз виглядає Часів Яр Колись у цьому райцентрі жили майже 13 тисяч людей. Але після приходу росіян залишилася одна лише пустка. Як і десятки інших містечок та сіл на передовій, Часів Яр майже повністю зруйнований. З висоти пташиного польоту видніються зруйновані будинки і спалені...
t.me
Germany is cutting Ukrainian aid budget for the next year by 50%. Ironically, it is justified by the $50B worth of loans (repaid with the profits from the frozen Russian sovereign funds), which was mostly pushed by the US and UK (the article suggests the goal was to be able to substitute the funds the US provides, in case Trump gets elected).
This article goes into the barrel life of of the tanks artillery with claims of difficulty in production of barrels amidst replacement due to heavy usage ,it certainly refers to Ukrainian troops discovering a brand new captured t-90m with a barrel made in 1992
www.afr.com
Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weapons are running out
The much-vaunted offensive against Kharkiv in the north that began in May is fizzling out. Advances elsewhere have been strategically trivial and at huge cost.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,344
This is complete b.s. Ukraine has been grabbing people off the streets indiscriminately. Absolutely not "the best men". They're really the "unluckiest men". Because the luckiest ones fled to the EU or other foreign lands, and the slightly less lucky ones are successfully dodging the military commissariat thugs.
Not sure what Urmanskoe is supposed to mean. Umanskoe has been under Russian control for a little while now. Urozhaynoe too. Ukrainian Marines are also not in Krinky. This is more b.s.
How do you conclude a causal link there?
More b.s. Ukraine has been grabbing people off the streets for over a year now. This isn't a normal draft where you get a notice, go through a medical commission, and then ship out. Ukraine is fighting this war with an army of mostly unwilling conscripts.
Russia has had one wave of mobilization in 2022. Nothing since. The Russian army is the one fighting with volunteers, though I wouldn't describe them as the "best men" either.
Does the present conscription laws mean that those conscripted cannot serve outside of Russian territory , a moot point being Ukrainian annexed territories are now recognised by Russian laws as Russian and is it a fact that Ukrainians in those territories are given this choice and can be conscripted to fight on behalf of Russia
This article includes the statement a very high percentage of youth fail the medical test to be conscripted
This article goes into forced conscription of foreign workers
www.fairplanet.org
jamestown.org
This article includes the statement a very high percentage of youth fail the medical test to be conscripted
This article goes into forced conscription of foreign workers
How migrants are manipulated into joining the Russian military | FairPlanet
For some migrants in Russia, signing a 'work contract' could mean a one-way ticket to the front in Ukraine.
www.fairplanet.org
Russia Continues to Forcibly Recruit Prisoners and Migrant Workers for War in Ukraine (Part One)
Russia’s war against Ukraine has taken an unpleasant turn for Moscow. Instead of a speedy, triumphant victory, the Russian Armed Forces are effectively wasting human and material resources in the battle for Avdiivka (Ukrinform, October 28). Three factors are pushing the Russian side to continue...
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,346
I believe the decision is a political one. Sending conscripted kids to die in an industrialized meat grinder will not be well received domestically. If the political desire was there, the law would simply get changed.
Did you read the article though? What about the sources? The problem with this assertion is so immediately obvious I'm honestly curious...
I can definitely state the tricking migrants part is true. In fact one of the topics during the recent visit of the Indian Prim Minister to Russia was the fate of several such persons, who were reportedly released from Russian military service. In general less-than-honest recruitment tactics are a hallmark of the Russian military. This however can often backfire as pre-war it was relatively easy to un-enlist if your contractual obligations were not met by the military. This led to things like contract soldiers being promised housing in a form that was never delivered on, and they simply broke contracts and quit. This was generally allowed. The situation remained that way early in the war, and there were noteworthy incidents like the case where a large number of MVD personnel refused to go to Ukraine and instead resigned from a National Guard (Rosgvardiya) unit. This even led to the term "500s" which referred to people that weren't casualties, but rather were losses in that they refused to fight or refused to deploy to Ukraine. Sometimes they were called refusers "отказники". Since then Russia has "stop-lossed" all remaining contract personnel until the end of the war, and sometimes tries to do this even with people who sign a 6-month contract which is relatively popular right now. Case in point, the Chinese soldier in the video I posted earlier. However from what I've read the 6-month contracts are mostly honored and people generally do get out that way. Among all the shady recruitment tactics I was surprised you didn't list this last bit.This article goes into forced conscription of foreign workers
How migrants are manipulated into joining the Russian military | FairPlanet
For some migrants in Russia, signing a 'work contract' could mean a one-way ticket to the front in Ukraine.Russia Continues to Forcibly Recruit Prisoners and Migrant Workers for War in Ukraine (Part One)
Russia’s war against Ukraine has taken an unpleasant turn for Moscow. Instead of a speedy, triumphant victory, the Russian Armed Forces are effectively wasting human and material resources in the battle for Avdiivka (Ukrinform, October 28). Three factors are pushing the Russian side to continue...
Weighing all of this together, and considering that the first wave of mobilized personnel continues to serve (though with some killed and some demobilized due to injury) I will modify my original statement above to say "Russia mostly fight with volunteers".
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
If the pace continues, Russians will be at Pokrovsk within 2-3 weeks.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,348
I don't think that's an accurate timeline. The Pokrovsk axis is already a salient. Russia will need to expand and stabilize the flanks. They can't just advance along one narrow path towards the town. And given how close Russian forces are to the operationally significant crossroads near Vozdvizhenka, it would make a lot of sense for Russian forces to make a distinct effort at capturing that first, worsening the logistical routes for Ukrainian forces in Toretsk and Chasov Yar. At current rates of advance it's entirely possible they will take that crossroads within 3 weeks. But a push on Pokrovsk will take longer. And the questions of Selidovo and Mirnograd both remain. You can't really advance on Pokrovsk without taking Mirnograd, and while you can theoretically bypass Selidovo it would make much more sense to take it first. That's two towns to be taken before you really start the battle for Pokrovsk. Now consider Krasnogorovka. This is a small town, essentially a suburb of Donetsk, very similar to Mar'inka and Avdeevka, prewar population of ~15k, one large factory, a few mid-rise houses (less then 30 total) and the rest a bunch of small single family homes. Russia started the fight for the town in April. The town is about to fall in end of July or early August*. Maybe the direction wasn't as much of a priority, but I suspect that if fighting for a place like Selidovo or Mirnograd will take 3 weeks all by itself that would already be a great success for Russia. They could spend 3 months fighting over Mirnograd.
EDIT; Did a quick count of the satellite image, Krasnogorovka has more like ~100 mid-rise structures but it's still smaller then just Selidovo, which had a pre-war population of ~22k, and just from looking at it considerably more larger structure which require longer to clear and can be much easier to defend. Mirnograd is triple the size of Krasnogorovka, with a prewar population of ~47k, and is just much larger in general. It's one thing to take the village of Progress with barely any fight, the entire thing is like 6 streets of single-family residences. It's another thing to assault even a small town like the ones above. The Pokrovsk axis is definitely Russia's main effort, but unless Ukrainian lines start to collapse, we're talking months not weeks to Pokrovsk.
EDIT2: *I don't know why I wrote June, it's clearly not fallen in June.
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
^ Yes, you are correct.
It doesn't look like it is getting better there.
Also saw mentioned that the 414th Regiment, aka Magyar, was moved to the area as well to try and contain the situation.
It doesn't look like it is getting better there.
Also saw mentioned that the 414th Regiment, aka Magyar, was moved to the area as well to try and contain the situation.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
If these are draft dodgers being picked up, whats the problem ? They are neither good nor bad, just caught. I have no sympathy for draft dodgers in this situation.
Im not sure we can say one way or another what % of new recruits are voluntary or not, I dont think we have any numbers.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
We have always been assuming that the refurbished equipment is going to replace losses. How do we know it isnt going to newly formed units representing a large reserve ? Do we have a good handle on new RU units actually being formed ?In other news, this is an excellent “summary” thread (should be readable to everyone) about the Russian dwindling equipment stocks:
Thread by @verekerrichard1 on Thread Reader App
@verekerrichard1: 1) The Economist magazine has published an article about Russia running low on military equipment, To my surprise they mention me as an open-source analysis. So I thought I would do a thread about ...…
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,352
Technically anyone in Ukraine who hasn't reported to the military commissariat is a draft dodger. Poke around Ukrainian social media. It's a mass campaign of grabbing people off the street, and filling out a blank draft notice on the spot. This is not in dispute. If you are not aware of it, it's easy enough to find out. There are untold thousands of videos. It's gotten so bad there's a growing pattern of people setting fire to cars they think belong to the military commissariat.
Ukraine is out volunteers. This is reality.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,354
They left quite a while ago... I believe this was posted on here.
EDIT: You can always look at the main suriyakmaps map.
Guerra Ruso-Ucraniana 2022 - Google My Maps
La verdad es la verdad, no lo que diga la mayoria, este mapa expone la guerra entre UCRANIA y RUSIA. Este mapa cuenta los sucesos diarios y la situación de la region...
www.google.com
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Russians are systematicaly sending jail house recruits, and also drug adict, disobediant soldiers to the frontal assault where most of the casualities are. And very little is done to save the wounded. But this not the anitire Russian army. It's maybe 10 or 20% of the soldiers on the front.seaspear said:
I don't know how African and Asian "volunteers" are treated. I'm afraid it's not much better. But they are not a lot. Maybe 2000 in all.
There are many more volunteers now, and soldiers who believe in it now than you had at the beginning of the SVO in 2022.KipPotapych said:
Because the first wave was composed of professional soldiers and called reservists. These people didn't have choice. A certain number of them are still fighting there.
Now, you have more soldiers from poor regions who do it for the salary. And when the salary is good, you tend to believe that your boss is right.
The propaganda is also more effective today than it was two years ago. Two years ago, Putin expected a quick victory which would serve as propaganda in itslef. Then they increased the propaganda and more people believe that the war in Ukraine is the right thing to do than two years ago.
This is in contrast with Ukraine where almost every soldier were volunteers.
Please, let's be serious. Ukraine has 250K+ fighting on the front. Do you think they were all grabbed form the streets by men in camouflage hiding in ambulances?Feanor said:
They are not sending conscripts to Ukraine, al thought, legally they could since the frontlune is in the middle of territories officialy anexed by Russia.seaspear said:
However, many with military experience are offered to fight in Ukraine for money. There is no mobilization but there is massive recruiting. There is a difference between fighting to defend your country and fighting for money. That was my point above.
Now, of course, you can argue again that it's the opposite. But I don;t believe so. Many foreign mercenaries fighting alongside Ukraine do it for money, but they chosed Ukraine instead of Russia because they remember the USSR.
______________________
My opinion and that of many analysts I'v read or heard is that Trump, or Vance, won;t change anything to the current pro-Ukrainian policy.KipPotapych said:
Trump has a different opinion of the war in Ukraine than 2 years ago. For example, at the debate with Joe Biden, he made clear that forcing Ukraine to give up territories in a peace agreement with Russia would be inacceptable.
Trump care about the image of the US on the international scene. More today than in 2017. After exiting Afghanistan, which he said was a disaster, and Syria, he will not want to look as the #1 coward by exiting Ukraine. He understands that the credibility of the US as a global power is at stake.
Even better: Trump would be happy to steal the Ukrainian victory from the Democrats if he is re-elected.
There is strong bi-partisant support for Ukraine in the US.
The aid given to Ukraine by the US represent less than 9% of their defence budget.
It means that it's not an important toopic in the US. Amercians don't feel or see that they are making an effort for Ukraine.
The US also has in store several times the quantity of military hardware to give Ukraine victory. They could give it without costing them a penny. Unlike Europe, Amercians don;t want to touch their own stock and make mostly special procurements for Ukraine. they have thousands of end-of-life ATACMS that they could give Ukraine. But for some stupid reason the Biden administration doesn't want to give them.
Trump will have far enough ressources to end the war within two weeks without spending too much money if he is re-elected.
___________________________________
It's the same problem with all modern armies. High tech missiles and planes take years to produce for technoical reason. It's physically impossible to prepare the raw and semo=finished material in less than one, sometimes two years.Kip said:
If they have stopped production (only the US can afford continuous production of advanced systems), the production line is dismantled and companies are not investing in it anymore.
then you add administrative slowlyness. And,yes, it takes years.
I don;t understand why it's ironical. It makes sens. There is enough money with the EU special fund and the loan guarantees on frozen Russian assets.Kip said:
But there is another reason: Germany is out of stock, so to speak. At the same time it will do well with the Ukraino-skeptic right wing party (forgot its name) which gained seats at the last election, like in France. IMO, the same situation as in Slovakia.
They say it's a change in policy. In reality the military stocks run low.
The aid will still remain important.
Thanks. If it was posted here, I missed it. However, Ukrinform still reported clashes on the Left Bank one week ago or so. That was probably their last one there.They left quite a while ago... I believe this was posted on here.
EDIT: You can always look at the main suriyakmaps map.
Guerra Ruso-Ucraniana 2022 - Google My Maps
La verdad es la verdad, no lo que diga la mayoria, este mapa expone la guerra entre UCRANIA y RUSIA. Este mapa cuenta los sucesos diarios y la situación de la region...
Anyway, they stayed there much longer than anyone expected.
Im not so sure its easy to value the dollar value of equipment sent to Ukraine since so much of it is very old ,or about to be expensively decommissioned e.g. ATACMS certainly hundreds of the MI-113 s the Hawk missile system was also due to be decommissioned as were the Saladin's artillery system and older Leopard tanks, that they have had been useful for Ukraine ,show something about the Russian army
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,358
Ukraine moved out of Krynki a while ago a little way down the shore due to the village being effectively flattened, and then recently, iirc. a couple of weeks ago, evacuated the left bank completely. Currently Russia is raiding the islands, and there is a dynamic though relatively low scale campaign going on in the Dnepr.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #10,359
Some raided stores, or public transportation, some just grabbed people while walking around. Some were taken out of a tourist campsite in the Carpathians (this one was iirc last year). There's a lot of this going on. Ukraine is forcibly conscripting practically all of their troops and their leadership admits this (iirc it was General Marchenko).
I also don't think Trump will radically change the policy, but I would like to point out that the bi-partisan support is weak not strong. The parties will happily jeopardize support to Ukraine if it helps in their internal struggles. The fight over the last large aid package to Ukraine is ample proof.
Completely untrue and not how that works at all. The US does have piles of hardware in store (though those piles might not be as large as I initially assumed). However giving it to Ukraine still costs money. The kit needs to be pulled from storage, refurbished, and then shipped to Ukraine. Someone also has to train Ukrainian personnel on it, supply ammo and spares parts for it. None of this is free. Some munitions could be handed over relatively easily, but even that wouldn't be literally free. More importantly from a timeline standpoint, this aid wouldn't even arrive within two weeks, much less end the war. And it's not really clear that supplying these giant buckets of aid would turn the tide. Larger volumes of foreign aid are easier to spot moving and easier to hit once inside Ukraine, meaning Russian strikes would be more damaging simply because there is more to damage. Russia's ability to look deeper behind Ukrainian lines is a major concern. And the current crop of western aid, while certainly good and helpful, hasn't been a game changer. It's kept Ukraine in the fight. There's still no clarity on how Ukraine could roll back Russian lines under present conditions even with more vehicles, artillery, etc. I suspect a massive flood of US aid would slowly grind Russia's offensive to a halt, and long slow attrition battles would follow.
This war is more then 2 years old. Ukraine's first Patriots went active in the winter of '22-'23, and a battery promptly got hit. We're in the summer of '24, and now they're trying to gear up production and realizing it will take "sometimes two years"? This is the point. This is the level of commitment and investment in supporting Ukraine from the west.
It's worse for Ukraine and better for Russia if the reason aid levels drop is because stocks run out. Political bickering halting the aid would be bad. Physical inability to provide the aid is much worse. In principle I suspect you're right by the way, at least on this part.
Conscription is always forced, by definition.Feanor said:
If you take the bulk of the Ukrainian defenders, they were all willing to fight to defend Ukraine, at least until when a rotation was long overdue.
I'm not saying that they didn't grab people in the streets, but I sincerely doubt that those arrested that way are sent to the front line. If they do that, they will lose the war. It doesn't make sens to me.
IMO, they are arrested, get to jail, maybe get a fine, then are sent to non-conbat duties, logistic or something. Or even released. Because these people won't fight anyway.
In an interview, a recruiting commander said that sometimes they are surprised that those who showed no will to fight during recruitment and training turned out to be quiet motivated once in contact with the enemy. And vice versa, those who showed off strong will at the training center, behaved like sissies as soon as they heard the first explosions on the battle field.
He added that when they see people completely refusing to go, drug addicts, or physically unfit, they prefer not to take them. They will be more a burden than anything.
He obviously didn't talk about youth abducted in fake ambulances. IMO, these stories are inflated by TikTok and Instagram agitators.
Yes, that was happened. But you see, at the end of the day, they voted the package.Feanor said:
I know. But it's still nuch cheaper than ordering new material for Ukraine.Feanor said:
My point was that the US is able to send much more equipment and missiles that they have been doing without too much spending.
I don't agree. Western aid, current or past, was a game changer in the sens that it allowed Ukraine to resist against its complete disparition.Feanor said:
It's just that it wasn;t enough to repel the Russian back to the 1991 borders. Everybody says that it's not realistic. It becomes realistic when you get the numbers.
The 2023 counter offensive failed because of lack of air power. Now with the F16's, they will have something to work with. The US has just promised 50 F16's, ...finally. Some F16's are theoretically already in Ukraine. But it will take until 2025 for the full force to be operational. We won;t see a sudden change in the game. It will grow gradually in favour of the Ukrainians.
At first the main task will be to intercept incoming cruise missiles and prevent the Russian air force to come close. They will protect the bases, the front line and the infrastructures.
In a second stage, they will bomb Russian lines. Then it will start to be interesting.
I don;t think we should talk about physical inability. It's rather the choice not to deplete too much one's own stocks for the sake of aiding Ukraine. If we consider the European countries bordering Russia, they are actually increasing their forces rather than depleting them. There is a double effort going on.Feanor said: