The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ I am assuming they are coming from the perspective of “voluntary leaving” the established position rather than being pushed out or position destroyed. At least that was my understanding. I thought about the bridge as well when reading, hence added “and maintain” in brackets. Direct translation from the article would be:

The main battle was fought for the village of Krynky - the only one on the left bank of the Kherson Region, where the defence forces were able to establish a foothold.

Well, writing helps sometimes, haha, as I now see they are talking about some populated area, ie villages/towns/etc. Then they are correct, I believe, and I interpreted it wrong.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
There was some talk/guesswork about the range of the FAB-3000 not long ago. It appears the Russian sources have posted a video of such a bomb drop that was geolocated 40 km from the frontline. I haven’t watched the Russian Telegram (or anything, really, other than news outlets) for a few weeks now due to time constraints and maybe Feanor can add another source and more context - for instance, this twitter source says that the bomb was dropped on a Ukrainian village, but how do we really know that it made it beyond the “Russian” Donetsk region (ie to and beyond the front line) instead of hitting a random spot within, 10 km away (choose other number)? The logical aim is certainly for Toretsk/Kknstantinovka direction. Anyway, here is the video on Twitter:


The geolocation thread:


A couple of images from the thread:

IMG_6284.jpeg

IMG_6285.jpeg

Feanor, I know you mentioned that you do not have a Twitter account, the video in question basically looks like the right part of the top image.

So there is your minimum range of the 3000s, given the bomb made it where intended. I still don’t see myself how it makes sense to drop one of these big boys instead of four 250s or two 500s (or four 500s) on a target, especially because I have seen plenty of the latter hitting the (assumed) target directly, while the big boys usually land near (in the content I saw). Surely the damage is substantial even from a “near” strike - imagine - but certainly not as much as a direct hit or four would cause.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@Feanor, so what happened with the US drone and Mig-31 over the Black Sea? Whatever FB has reported. Sorry, I listened and read, but do not fully understand what he is talking about.

To follow up on that ^, have there been any US recon assets flying over the Black Sea with the proximity to Crimea as they were prior to the incident? I also haven’t seen any reported strikes on Crimea since either (doesn’t mean there weren’t any, just that I haven’t seen any reported). I saw a tweet (can’t find at the moment) from a “legit” source the other day suggesting (or proposing, rather) that there may have been some type of agreement made between the US and Russia in order to avoid the escalation, which is why I even remembered about the incident in the quoted post. It has been reported that just Belousov and Lloyd have now talked twice in the past few weeks, if I recall correctly.

P. S. My apologies for multiple posts.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Those nukes from my understanding Ukraine has no codes on using it anyway. The codes stay in Russia.
If you have the weapons in your possession & the skills to do it (which Ukraine did) you can remove the triggering mechanisms & replace them with your own, & then set any codes you choose.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
One of the Stans I never heard of, ( Bashkortostan ), allegedly has a company of fighters opposing Russia in Ukraine who recently captured one of their citizens who was fighting for Russia.

x.com
Bashkortostan is an autonomous republic within Russia, not an independent country. Its citizens are citizens of Russia. They can be conscripted into the Russian armed forces.

Any Bashkirs fighting for Ukraine would be in serious trouble if captured by the Russians.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I promise I'm working on the next update, and just got bogged down. In the meantime here's some interesting comments from two Chinese soldiers serving in Russian units in the warzone in Ukraine. Neither seems to be all that thrilled with their experience and both seem to be serving for quite some time. One is in a Shtorm-Z unit, the other served with Wagner and later transferred to the Russian VDV. The commentator calls them mercenaries but I don't think this is accurate, since they're serving in the Russian military actually, though while the second one was with Wagner I think he qualified as a mercenary.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
With regards to the above video describing compensation for Chinese mercenaries nothing was said for injured or permanently disabled foreign mercenaries ,I found the idea of bonuses for personally killing the enemy interesting as an explanation to the allegation of prisoners being executed a consequence
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kharkov front.

Ukrainian counter-attacks into Glubokoe continue, but there is some back and forth with Ukraine gaining some ground and Russia recapturing some. In Volchansk a Ukrainian counter-attack has regained some ground, and at the same time Russian forces have crossed the river Volchya dead south. Lastly a Ukrainian counter-attack has broken into Staritsy and controls most of the village. I suspect the fog of war is obscuring the reality of the situations.


Russian VT-40 FPV drone hits a Ukrainian T-64BV, and the ammo cooks off, destroying the tank. The impact is to the rear of the turret. The VT-40 itself is a rare standardized FPV drone that the Russian MoD pays for to get in some sort of bulk.


Allegedly a Krab howitzer getting hit near Tishki.


Russian air strikes around Volchansk and Liptsi continue including strikes against the ruins of bridges and another FAB-3000 strike. You'll notice there's a lot of them. It seems to me that Russia is striking quite a few Ukrainian targets as relatively large numbers of troops have been funneled into this small area.


Russian airstrikes on Severnaya Saltovka, Kharkov itself.


An interesting look at a Russian 2S34 that got hit by the tungsten submunitions of a HIMARS, but survived thanks to its armor.


Battle damage in Liptsi from a Russian bomb.


Ukraine hit the center of Belgorod, some sort of infrastructure was allegedly targeted. General shelling also continues though again at a reduced level compared to what we saw previously.


A Ukrainian FPV drone hit a civilian car in Belgorod region, seemingly at random.


Reports out of Russia claim a Ukrainian drone dropped a small munition on a playground causing 5 WIA.


14 Russian villages in Belgorod region have been placed on restricted access due to safety concerns. Anyone not living there apparently is being required to wear PPE when entering. There's no word on what's happening with the residents.


Russian battlegroup north with an up-armored Tor-M2 variant. The extra-armor looks factory made and this grouping got a lot of relatively fresh kit including BMP-3Ms whose paint looked so fresh they might have been straight from the factory. It's possible Russia is feeling the need for more armor for front line SAM units.


Russia's Africa Corps official confirms they're involved in the fighting on the Kharkov front.


Oskol front.

Russian forces creep forward towards Stepovaya Novoselka and have gained ground east and west of Sinkovka, in a clear attempt to bypass the troublesome village along a wide front. It remains to be seen if this yields fruit. Russian forces also continue to expand ground around the Tabaevka-Krahmal'noe area, pushing into Peshanoe.


Russian forces have taken large portions of Stel'makhovka down to the river. Russian forces have also broken into Makeevka, and seized a portion of the local, up to the Zherebets river. It remains to be see if Russia can cross the river.


Around Terny Russian forces have begun advancing north of the previous attempts, in another gully.


Russia hit another bridge in Kupyansk and an unspecified bridge across the Oskol using D-30SN.


An M113 knocked out near Sin'kovka with an FPV drone.


A rare Russian BAT-2 engineering vehicle on the Kupyansk front.


Russian BMP-3 doing indirect fire, Kupyansk axis. Note while it has neat looking side-cages, this is not the extra-armor kit Russia produces for them. And a Nona-K in the same area. We've gotten a steady stream of photosets all from the 1st Tank Army in that area.


Seversk salient.

Russian forces advance north-west of Razdolovka towards Pereyezdnoe, grabbing some high ground along the rail berm.


Russian forces near Spornoe hit Ukrainian infantry with a Molniya loitering munition. Reportedly Russia's 106th VDV.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces advance on the northern flank of Chasov Yar, gaining ground in Kalinovka, and pushing into the fields towards Grigorievka. Russian forces have also taken the warhouses north of Kalinovka. It seems Russia intends to control a large chunk of area along the canal before pushing into the rest of Chasov Yar. Note, Chasov Yar has some very complex terrain around it and it makes sense for Russia to advance through the town along a wider front. This does mean they will advance slower. There are some reports of Russian troops crossing the canal but this is unconfirmed.


Russian forces have grabbed a portion of the hills west of Klescheevka. This may reflect a Ukrainian withdrawal rather then a Russian attack.


Russia hit the train station in Konstantinovka.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Gorlovka-Torets.

A Ukrainian counter-attack has recaptured two streets in the center of Novogorodskoe, where Russia's initial rapid advance has stalled. To stabilize the salient Russian forces have pushed out westward gaining considerable ground west of it. This is likely intended to secure it from any counter-attacks.


On the axis out of Gorlovka towards Torets Russian forces have continued to gain ground in several directions including in Zheleznoe. However the pace has slowed and this is more of the typical Russian creeping offensive.


Russia bombing the factory at the center of Novogorodskoe. 3rd link has battle damage photos from ground level.


Russian Kh-38ML strike on a bridge near Novogorodskoe. These are rapidly becoming staples of Russian offensive efforts.


Russian TOS-1 strikes in Novogorodskoe.


Battle damage in Torets. If things continue it will be another destroyed town.


Ukrainian T-64BV knocked out, Novogorodskoe.


Ukrainian T-80BV hits a landmine, and the crew bails out after pulling the tank off the road.


Ocheretino-Netaylovo.

Russian forces continue to gain ground north-west of Ocheretino. Russia grabbed most of Lozovoe, are pushed up to the very outskirts of Vozdvizhenka, and have grabbed some fields around this area too. Russian advances have also taken them into Novoselka Pervaya holding over half of the village. Voskhod, Sokol, and Yevgenievka are now firmly under Russian control. Russian forces have also entered the outskirts of Progress The Volchya river will likely be the natural stopping point for Russian advances.


A Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP getting hit and burning, and 2 destroyed.


Ukrainian BMP-1 getting hit at night.


A Ukrainian M1A1 with drone cages, K-1, and an EW station. The type is practically an endangered species, with losses mounting.


Russian Msta-S and Osa-AKM operating near Avdeevka.


Mar'inka-Krasnogorovka.


Russian forces continue to gain ground inside Krasnogorovka. At this point most of the town is in Russian hands, including all the mid-rise buildings. This comes as a Ukrainian counter-attack recaptures a tree-line south-west of Krasnogorovka and the edge of town, before losing it again. Ukraine still holds most of the private sector in the north-west, and the park in the middle, but it's clearly a matter of time before the town falls.


A Ukrainian BM-21 destroyed somewhere in the Kurakhovo area.


Interesting footage of a Russian drone operator hunting Ukrainian forces west of Mar'inka.


Novomihailovka-Ugledar.

Russian forces have crept up almost all the way to the highway south of Konstantinovka. They continue to gain ground in the fields.


Russian strike on Prechistovka, just west of Ugledar.


Zaporozhye front.

Russian forces have taken all of Urozhaynoe, and are advancing north of Staromayorskoe. The next village is Makarovka, very small, and next to the river, but overlooked by the higher ground west of it.


Russian forces continue to bite off small pieces of the Rabotino salient and have made another leap forward near Gulyaypole.


Russian infantry using another mine-based explosive charge in Urozhaynoe. This new method is spreading quickly across many different areas.


Russian infantry walks past a destroyed Kirpi MRAP in Urozhaynoe.


Ukrainian M113 hits a landmine in Zaporozhye.


Russian airstrike on Neskuchnoe, likely interdiction efforts for their advances around Urozhaynoe.


Russian RBK-500 strikes in Zaporozhye region.


Russian airstrikes south-west of Gulyaypole, where Russia has recently made very slow gains.


Russian TOS-1 fires in the Rabotino salient.


Russian drone strikes in Kamenskoe. This is right on the Dnepr, the very end of the Zaporozhye front, and we rarely get footage from here. The front here hasn't moved in over 2 years.


Ukrainian CASEVAC buggies in Orekhov, just north of the Rabotino salient. Both sides are using light vehicles like these more and more.


Large fires near Energodar in the forest near the town, after Ukrainian strikes.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Dnepr front.

It's curious that Russian strikes in this area have picked up. It's unclear what the purpose of this is.

Russian missile strike on the left shore of Kherson region against an alleged Ukrainian staging area, Nikolaevka village.


Ukrainian Bukovel' EW station getting hit, somewhere along the Dnepr.


Russian striking a target in L'vovo, Kherson region.


Russian ODAB-1500 strike on Ukrainian positions under the ruins of the Antonov bridge, allegedly a UAV control post.


A Russian checkpoint in Kherson region hiding under a bridge, presumably to avoid detection, since a drone can certainly enter there.


Strikes.

Russian Shahed strike allegedly on a Ukrainian munition storage near Izyum, Kharkov region.


Russian Iskander strike on a Ukrainian training ground near Peresechnoe, Kharkov reagion.


Russia hit another train carrying military vehicles in Kharkov.


Russian strike in Sumy region hit a troop column near Stetskovka.


Russian strike on Krasniy Liman, target not immediately obvious.


Battle damage from a Russian strike on Mirnograd, allegedly a Ukrainian staging area. In case you don't know, this town is just west of Pokrovsk, and is on the axis of the Russian advance out of Ocheretino if Russia keeps going west.


Russia hit a Ukrainian column in Nikolaev, allegedly HIMARS but it's hard to tell.


Russia hit a Ukrainian airbase in Odessa basing Yak-52s being used to intercept Russian UAVs, and allegedly Bayraktars and other UAVs. 8 hangars were hit.


Russia hit Dnepropetrovsk, allegedly an IRIS-T position, but it's hard to tell.


Satellite images show battle damage after a recent Russian strike on Dnepropetrovsk, the Yuzhmash factory.


Satellite images show battle damage to the Artem plant after recent Russian strikes, Kiev.


Battle damage photos of a Ukrainian factory in Krivoy Rog owned by the famous Metinvest, who is known for producing Ukrainian decoys.


Ukraine struck a Russian electrical components factory in Kursk region.


Ukraine struck an oil refinery in Rostov region, causing a fire.


Ukraine struck a prototype facility in Kapustin Yar, it's unclear what exactly it is, but the area is a missile testing ground.


Reportedly a fuel storage facility near Volgograd was hit by Ukrainian drones.


In Tula region a Ukrainian drone hit the wall of a Russian metal furniture factory. Note many Russian plants have switched over to some defense production so this may now be a K-1 boxes factory, or something else of the sort.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting bits.

A rare case of a Switchblade SB-600 downed in Donetsk. The type hasn't been seen in the war for some time.


Indirect confirmation of Russian successes keeps coming from Ukrainian obituaries. An Mi-8 pilot was killed in unclear circumstances. It might have been a downed helo, it might have been a Russian strike on an airbase.


An interesting look at how the war has changed the layout of the vegetation in Ukraine with areas at and near the front not planted for crops.


An interesting look at an Su-34 carrying a FAB-3000 and smaller munitions too.


There are sources indicating that Russia has a recon variant of the Iranian Shahed flying around, and is using Belorussian airspace to enter Ukraine.


Russian T-54 knocked out. It was not only a drone cage but an entire box for troops mounted on top of it, with an HMG pintle-mounted. It's clearly an improvised IFV.


Russian T-62M chassis knocked out, with a shed over it, and when damaged revealing a missing turret. Allegedly it was being used as an H-APC.


A Russian T-54 train passing near Moscow. While their original use was artillery, Russia is definitely using them on the front lines now.


Russian forces are pulling more M-46s out of storage. We've seen imported shells for the type, so the limit there may be the availability of their scarce 130mm ammo. Note while the M-46 is quite old, it has relatively long range (over 27kms with normal shells) and is certainly much better then using BMP-3s or MT-12 Rapiras as indirect fire weapons, nevermind abusing tanks in this manner.


Russian Pacific Fleet Marines show off their MT-LB with 2M-3M turret (if the coloration is any indication, I don't think we've seen this vehicle before) and a demilitarized BTR that's now re-militarized.


A Russian T-72A covered in K-1 and K-5 boxes, as well as factory supplied slat armor, possibly BTR-82AT sections. We've seen more "naked" T-72As getting the up-armoring treatment, and you'll note even the knocked out T-54 above was covered in K-1 tiles. In other words, despite rumors about a lack of ERA, at the very least the boxes are being supplied. Obviously we can't know if they have the packaging inside.


Russian BTR-82AT stuck in the mud. Despite their prevalence in the Russian armed forces, BTRs are less visible in this war.


Reportedly Ukraine's 47th and 24th Mech Bdes have formed units made up of convicts.


There are continued deliveries of 2S1 howitzers to Ukraine from various sources, and with their shorter range, they're often quite visible among the losses. Here we have some ex-Polish 2S1s in the 41st Mech.


Ukraine's 15 Border Guards detachment shows off their imported 100mm artillery shells for the BS-3.


A short video of Ukrainian Hawk operations. Prior to this we just saw the still from the video.


Ukraine's 58th Mech shows off Turkish KTH1 60mm mortars.


Ukrainian forces using a Puma APC with Kub missiles installed on it allegedly modified for ground-ground strikes.


Ukrainian forces with a Puma APC. We've seen one destroyed near Belogorovka, but no info on how many they got.


Another prisoner exchange has take place, facilitated through the UAE, this is the second one in recent times, this one 95 for 95.


Ukrainian pilots training on the M346 in Poland.


Reportedly 2100 Ukrainian service members are arriving in France at the end of September for training, and will received 18 Caesar howitzers, 128 VAB APCs, and 24 light tanks, possible AMX-10RC. Other French kit is also anticipated for the formation.


There are reports that 32 ex-Greek F-16s are being sent to the US for upgrades before going to Ukraine. This suggests that not only are there more F-16s coming, but also that the US is indeed upgrading some of the old F-16s going to Ukraine.


10 newly-repaired Spanish Leo-2A4s, and 2 Nikken BM307 mineclearing vehicles are heading to Ukraine.


An Iranian cargo plane lands in Moscow.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Chasov Yar.

Russian forces advance on the northern flank of Chasov Yar, gaining ground in Kalinovka, and pushing into the fields towards Grigorievka. Russian forces have also taken the warhouses north of Kalinovka. It seems Russia intends to control a large chunk of area along the canal before pushing into the rest of Chasov Yar. Note, Chasov Yar has some very complex terrain around it and it makes sense for Russia to advance through the town along a wider front. This does mean they will advance slower. There are some reports of Russian troops crossing the canal but this is unconfirmed.
Ukrainian sources say that Russians captured Kalinovka, though their maps look more or less the same (ie all red to the canal). They also say that the Russians have now captured all the heights around and access to the canal gaps and are ready for their offensive.

IMG_6294.jpeg

There were also reports (just a few hours later) that Russians launched an attack north of Chasiv Yar (same source for my convenience).

IMG_6295.jpeg

The northern flank has moved they say:


There is some active discussion about the Chasiv Yar defences. Some insist that there is nothing to worry about and the defence lines were built years ago, while others insist that the situation looks pretty bad. We shall see what happens. I think if (likely when) Chasiv Yar falls, especially if it does so relatively quickly (relative to the usual pace), it will be really bad news for Ukraine.


There appears to be a Russian “road of death” in Kharkiv direction, stated to show 22 units of equipment. Looks like a bit of everything, from light trucks to MBTs.


On this note, numerous Ukrainian sources (as well as western analysts) have been lately claiming that Ukraine pulled more resources from everywhere (including reserves) to send to the Kharkiv direction than was necessary, which will inevitably lead to problems elsewhere (perhaps we have seen some of these already).


Uraltransmash caught a fire earlier today (yesterday). Conflicting reports of the size of the fire from different sources, but I thought it is worth mentioning as it is rather an important (military) manufacturing facility for Russia.




Something else I was going to add, but cannot recall at the moment. Oh well.

There was another episode of In Moscow’s Shadows released by Mark Galeotti. It is an excellent piece, one of his best, in my opinion. He talks about the Russian sabotage in the western world and other related (in his opinion) topics. It’s really great. Have a listen while driving, cooking, or whatever. As usually, just under an hour long.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukrainian sources say that Russians captured Kalinovka, though their maps look more or less the same (ie all red to the canal). They also say that the Russians have now captured all the heights around and access to the canal gaps and are ready for their offensive.

View attachment 51522

There were also reports (just a few hours later) that Russians launched an attack north of Chasiv Yar (same source for my convenience).

View attachment 51523

The northern flank has moved they say:


There is some active discussion about the Chasiv Yar defences. Some insist that there is nothing to worry about and the defence lines were built years ago, while others insist that the situation looks pretty bad. We shall see what happens. I think if (likely when) Chasiv Yar falls, especially if it does so relatively quickly (relative to the usual pace), it will be really bad news for Ukraine.
Several things there. I believe Kalinovka stretches across the canal. So Russia has only taken half of the village. I think pushing along a wider front north of Chasov Yar is a logical decision. If you look at the map, there is a complex set of hills with many fingers north of Chasov Yar. I think that storming Chasov Yar without taking that hill would be problematic. So it would make sense for Russia to attempt to take that area prior to moving on the main part of town. The terrain around Chasov Yar is complex with many artificial ponds where material was excavated and many man-made refuse mounds around the town. I don't think the town will fall quickly unless Ukrainian forces really are stretched far too thin.

On this note, numerous Ukrainian sources (as well as western analysts) have been lately claiming that Ukraine pulled more resources from everywhere (including reserves) to send to the Kharkiv direction than was necessary, which will inevitably lead to problems elsewhere (perhaps we have seen some of these already).
I suspect Zelensky has demanded of Ukrainian command to push Russian forces out. Ukraine is making a lot of counter-attacks there. Ukraine is furiously and repeatedly throwing forces into the fight. Around Glubokoe they're taking unpleasant losses, and gaining relatively little ground. In Volchansk it's turned into an urban meatgrinder except Russia has more ability to airstikes and loitering munition strikes. Ukrainian artillery losses alone in this area are quite unpleasant. I suspect despite the occasional nastiness Russian forces have exprienced like losing a column of troops, overall Russian command is happy with what's happening there. And yes we have definitely seen the effect of this elsewhere. Russian forces were stuck in the canal neighborhood of Chasov Yar until this started. They couldn't break Ukrainian defenses on the Seversk salient for two years, now they've taken Spornoe and Ivano-Darievka. While Seversk itself is still a ways off , the salient is slowly collapsing. Krasnogorovka is almost lost, and Russian forces have restarted advances on the Oskol front along multiple sections. While each gain individually is minor, they're having an accumulated effect. This doesn't mean Ukraine loses the war, but it does mean that they're going to lose quite a bit more ground then they would have without the Russian fixing action at Kharkov. And at this point a Russian drive on Pokrovsk late this year or early next year is starting to look like a possibility.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Bad news for the F16's. They haven't arrived yet. And it could take another several weeks.
As I understand from between the lines: There was a problem for maintenance inside Ukraine, either because it was not safe or because the facilities and teams were not prepared. Poland had to take the decision to undertake Ukrainian F16 maintenance, storage and repair on their soil, at their own facilities.
I expect that most of the F16's in reserve will be in Poland. It's possible that they will take off from Poland, refuel quickly in Ukraine, attack, then return to Poland.

Zelensky said:
And today, we have a positive decision from the Polish government on a specific issue, which will allow Ukraine to receive F-16 jets sooner
Sooner than when?
link

Jarosław Kraszewski chairman of defence holding RBL said:
Poland's assistance will consist of certain processes of preparing these aircraft so that they can operate in the Ukrainian teather of operations. They will fly to Poland, where they will be thoroughly serviced and refueled. Ukrainian pilots will also arrive in Poland, one or two days will be allocated for familiarization and test flights, and then the F-16s will fly to Ukraine,"
link
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
Well, first of all there was never any “expansion of the bridgehead”. Second, who cares if the Russians “tried to land on boats on the right bank” - their fate would be predictable. Third, best men were spent on this “operation”. Like in Bakhmut, they were “grinding Russians” and ended up losing (reportedly/confirmed) 8,000 thousand of literally their best man, while Russians reportedly lost 19,647, 17,175 of whom were prisoners Jack Watling of RUSI had this to say about it:
Well. You don't make a war by sitting arm folded and watching. You always have to take the initiative somewhere, no matter how stretched your forces are.
By withdrawing from the Right Bank, the Russians hoped that the Dnipr would make a natural protection and that only a minimal amount of forces could stay while most of them could be moved to fight somewhere else.

The Russians made the mistake of shelling Kherson. This gave an excellent reason for the Ukrainians to attack the Left Bank. Maybe it wasn't their primary motive but it gave them one more good reason to go.
With Ukrainians disembarking in Krinky, Russians were forced to keep soldiers in this area.

Ukrainians didn't succeed in pushing Russian artillery far enough. Russians are still shelling the Right Bank daily. But the city of Kherson is relatively spared.

Yes, Ukrainians had losses there, as they had in Avdiivka and Lysychansk. And yes, it was their best men, because, unlike the Russian army, only the best men are fighting on the Ukrainian side. That's why they don;t have enough people to fight.

Is it courage or almost suicidal stubborness? The result is that Russians haven't taken Chasiv Yar, Torestsk or Urmanskie yet, were stopped in Volchansk and Ukrainians Marines are still in Krinky, almost miraculously.
 

Fredled

Active Member
There was some talk/guesswork about the range of the FAB-3000 not long ago. It appears the Russian sources have posted a video of such a bomb drop that was geolocated 40 km from the frontline. I haven’t watched the Russian Telegram (or anything, really, other than news outlets) for a few weeks now due to time constraints and maybe Feanor can add another source and more context - for instance, this twitter source says that the bomb was dropped on a Ukrainian village, but how do we really know that it made it beyond the “Russian” Donetsk region (ie to and beyond the front line) instead of hitting a random spot within, 10 km away (choose other number)? Th
.......
There are two explanations:
1/ It hit a target right on the front line, albeit at the limit of the range. Not surprising for Russian, yet not usual neither. These bombs are used as thermobaric. It can kill a lot of soldiers at once, without causing too much visual damages. They could clear several meters of trenches right before an assault.

2/ Yet another mechanical or human failure, which caused the bomb to be dropped too early. Russians lost a lot of bombs that way. Some of them even above the Russian territory.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Well. You don't make a war by sitting arm folded and watching. You always have to take the initiative somewhere, no matter how stretched your forces are.
They never had an initiative there.

By withdrawing from the Right Bank, the Russians hoped that the Dnipr would make a natural protection and that only a minimal amount of forces could stay while most of them could be moved to fight somewhere else.
Russians are not the ones that are stretched (and never were when Ukrainians paddled over).

The Russians made the mistake of shelling Kherson. This gave an excellent reason for the Ukrainians to attack the Left Bank. Maybe it wasn't their primary motive but it gave them one more good reason to go.
With Ukrainians disembarking in Krinky, Russians were forced to keep soldiers in this area.
See the above. Russian forces would still be present in the area, without a doubt. The Ukrainian commander I quoted above even said that they would cross the river otherwise.

The only thing that would be different is that the munitions, including artillery and bombs, could be used elsewhere. This is not a good exchange, in my opinion. It was a political theatre and it cost quite a bit.

Ukrainians didn't succeed in pushing Russian artillery far enough. Russians are still shelling the Right Bank daily. But the city of Kherson is relatively spared.
Spared because of the Krynky?

Yes, Ukrainians had losses there, as they had in Avdiivka and Lysychansk. And yes, it was their best men, because, unlike the Russian army, only the best men are fighting on the Ukrainian side. That's why they don;t have enough people to fight.
Not sure if this is intended as humour. You are definitely wrong here otherwise. Like over 100% wrong, haha. Sounds like Ukrinform though.

Is it courage or almost suicidal stubborness? The result is that Russians haven't taken Chasiv Yar, Torestsk or Urmanskie yet, were stopped in Volchansk and Ukrainians Marines are still in Krinky, almost miraculously.
There are no marines in Krynky. They are now fighting on the islands. Confirmed by all sides.


There are two explanations:
1/ It hit a target right on the front line, albeit at the limit of the range. Not surprising for Russian, yet not usual neither. These bombs are used as thermobaric. It can kill a lot of soldiers at once, without causing too much visual damages. They could clear several meters of trenches right before an assault.

2/ Yet another mechanical or human failure, which caused the bomb to be dropped too early. Russians lost a lot of bombs that way. Some of them even above the Russian territory.
1) Yes, the damage is great, without a doubt. You can almost feel it when watching the videos. “Several metres” is definitely an underestimate.

2) There is absolutely no reason to suspect that it was not an intentional drop in this case. It appeared to be a clear release, suggesting that these things can glide at least 40 km.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
and Russian forces have restarted advances on the Oskol front along multiple sections
I have read rumours on some of the Ukrainian (“connected”) Telegram channels and Twitter accounts for the past few days that it is getting really hard to defend the left bank of Oskol.
 

Fredled

Active Member
@KipPotapych Going to Krinky was definetky an Ukrainian initiative. Not a Russian one.
Yes, it's fair to assume that Kherson city is spared from shelling thanks to the action of the Ukrainian forces on the Left Bank. Thought the effect is not complete. Russians are still able to shell some areas there.

Russian forces are not stretched, but they need a maximum of ressources in manpower and in hardware to achieve their goal.

In the Ukrainian army, most of them are volunteers (at least until recently).
The big problem was that no more volunteers came once all of them already went to the front line.

Whereas in the Russian army, it's the opposite. Most of the regular soldiers didn't want to go there. They still fight bravely thought, obeying orders. And those who are doing the frontal assaults are the scum of the society. That's why they don't give a damn how many of them die.

KipPotapych said:
I have read rumours on some of the Ukrainian (“connected”) Telegram channels and Twitter accounts for the past few days that it is getting really hard to defend the left bank of Oskol.
Not only there. And it's no rumour.
Ukrinform is talking about that every day:
Since the beginning of the day, 85 combat clashes have taken place at the front
 
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