The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

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Staff member
It becames visible, thought not unexpected, that Ukrainians don;t have the firepower to stop Russian advances. They can only slow them as much as they can.
Acording to Ciril Budanov, Ukrainians expect a stronger Russian offensive only in May and June and expect their forces to retreat from now on.
However It would make sens for the Russians to capitalize on their curent advantage now and not to wait because the new Aid Package from the US will arrive very soon.
Ukrainian lines in that area are continuing to collapse. Russia has taken the Altcom factory in Ocheretino, meaning there aren't any particularly good strong points left in the village. There are still a few multi-story buildings by the eastern outskirts, but the positions there are precarious, and it's not clear if Ukraine actually holds them or if Russia simply hasn't clearly taken them yet. South of there Russia has take all of Novobakhmutovka and the first tree line west of it, and is now pushing on Solovyovo. Both of those villages are in a low ground compared to Ocheretino so the fall of that village makes those positions probably untenable. It remains to be seen how this develops, but it seems likely Novokalinovo will fall relatively soon too, and Russian forces in the Berdychy-Semenovka area will be able to advance on the northern side of Umanskoe.


EDIT: The Hangar Beyond. It was damaged, possibly on a land mine, near Krasnogorovka, and appears to have been successfully evacuated. We will likely be seeing this vehicle back in service, but it's almost certain the hangar will be removed from the tank.


EDIT 2: Russian forces continue the flag videos, another one from Ocheretino, and our first from Novobakhmutovka.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Chasov Yar.

Ukrainian forces have recaptured some ground between Klescheevka and Ivanovskoe/Krasnoe.


A YPR-765 and Roshel Senator destroyed near Klescheevka.


The Ocheretino salient.

I've made this one a separate category because of everything going on in this area, and because the rest of the Avdeevka area has mostly gone quiet, minus some efforts around the base of this very salient.

It appears Ocheretino has fallen fully, with Russian forces also taking Novobakhmutovka, and pushing into Solovievo. Some sources indicate it has been fully taken, including the main map from suriyakmaps. Flag raising has taken place, but this is obviously not definitive. If it's fallen, it's the third village this week Russia has taken in this area.


Russian soldiers continuing to post videos from Ocheretino.


Another Abrams has been hit near Avdeevka, presumably somewhere around the Ocheretino area. The spectacular explosion suggests ammo cooking off, but of course this doesn't guarantee destruction.


Russian forces are taking away a captured AMV M1150. Two such vehicles were lost in combat.


Pervomayskoe area.

A destroyed Mastiff MRAP near Netaylovo. Judging by the fresh paint and lack of rust, it's likely a recent loss. We saw these vehicles active in this same area, but we've seen them active in the same area last year when Ukraine was counter-attacking in Pervomayskoe and lost quite a few.


Mar'inka area.

Inside Krasnogorovka Russia has either taken or contested the major factory in the center of town. It's likely the town will fall completely, and relatively soon, unless something drastically changes. So far these events bear out Zaluzhny's prediction from December when Russia took Mar'inka, and he said Russia could take another Mar'inka every 2-3 months. In February it was Avdeevka, in late April or early May Krasnogorovka.


Russian forces also continue to gain ground in the area between Pobeda and Georgievka. This is a high ground area that's important to any future Russian advances towards Kurakhovo at least south of the water ways.


Zaporozhye front.


Please note I'm including the fighting south of Velikaya Novoselka in this section, despite it technically being Donetsk region. It's part of the southern front from a geographical look at the front lines.

Russian forces have finally grabbed a confirmed foothold inside Urozhaynoe. Russian bomb strikes in this area have also increased. For whatever reason Russia really does seek to recapture the lost villages in the former Vremyevskiy bulge.


Russian forces burned a medical Ukrainian MT-LB variant near Urozhaynoe with an ATGM.


A Roshel Senator knocked out near Urozhaynoe.


Russia continues to chip pieces off in the Rabotino salient.


A Ukrainian Marder was knocked out reportedly in a counter-attack in the Rabotino salient recently. I suspect we have evidence of Ukrainian reinforcements active in the area. The last place we saw Marders was near Avdeevka.


An M113 hit a landmine in the Rabotino salient. Even in areas Ukraine controls, landmines aren't really cleared. And of course Russian offensive actions face the same problem.


Russian forces taking out their 9th P-18 radar since February, this one in Zaporozhye region. I have to wonder if this is because Russia has new capabilities allowing this, or if Ukraine got a decent batch of them, and now are burning through them.


Kherson.

Ukraine has apparently expanded their foothold in Krynki. Russia never fully secured the area despite pronouncements claiming as much.


Border area.


In Bryansk region a Ukrainian UAV attacked a civilian bus, wounding 4. If deliberate, this is likely a warcrime.


Scattered UAV attacks continue against what appear to be civilian targest around Belgorod region, including some random cars, and an unnamed industrial enterprise, where an FPV drone hit the doorway area.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russia hit a military unit in Odessa, destroying a number of BRDM-2s. There is a possibility these are the same BRDM-2s we saw loading onto trains in Bolgaria. We have no word on KIA/WIA.


Russia also hit Gorbatiy bridge in Odessa. This is the second bridge hit in the area.


We have unconfirmed reports of a Russian strike against the rail yard in Cherkasy. This is the second strike against a rail facility recently, with the target being the infrastructure itself, rather than some specific military cargo. Coupled with the recent strikes against powerplant machine halls we might be looking at a new pattern of actually annihilating Ukrainian infrastructure instead of trying to disable it.


Russian cluster munition strike against an alleged Ukrainian staging area, Dnepropetrovsk area.


Ukraine hit Russian oil refineries in Smolensk and Voronezh.


Interesting bits.

Allegedly a Ukrainian M270 getting hit. It looks about right, but it's hard to make out the vehicle.


A Russian 92N6 radar after damage from a HIMARS near miss. Note the damage pattern, it appears the truck is armored.


Russian forces have allegedly captured their first M88A2 ARV. Location and context unclear.


A Ukrainian M55S enjoying the mud. A reminder of how rought the terrain can be. It's also curious that more videos of these rare tanks have shown up lately.


Clean looking Ukrainian BMP-1s with roof cages and side cages. Despite the flashy videos of Bradleys in action, the BMP-1 is far more the IFV workhorse in Ukrainian service, and despite being very rare pre-war, remains in very active use with Russian forces as well.


Hangars are growing on tanks like mold under a leaky roof. We will likely see many more.


In nature there is the water cycle, in this war there is the tank cycle. This T-72B3 mod'16 was captured by Ukraine, and after being used by Ukrainian forces has now returned to Russia.


Russian Z-STS with massive cages continue to appear.


A rare Russian BMPT with roof cage. There were reports of a fresh batch, but I have suspicions that this was the completion of production of a few models at the factory rather then an attempt to produce the type in quantity.


A rare Russian BREM-L. There were rumors of fresh deliveries of the type, but even if true, it remains scarce.


Ukraine is handing over 15 Kozak-2 and 25 Kozak-5 armored cars to its armed forces. These are theoretically locally produced, but it's a Ford F-550 chassis with an armored box, and we don't really know where they're making the armored boxes. Given the lackluster performance of wheeled vehicles in this conflict overall, their value is low. But of course anything is better then having unarmored pickups as your main mode of transport.


4 2S1s were apparently acquired from private collections and are heading to Ukraine via Germany.


Lithuania is delivering a second batch of M577s to Ukraine.


The most recent aid package from the UK will apparently include Paveway-4 guided bombs.


Bradleys, allegedly meant for Ukraine, are already in Poland.


Footage leaked by Russian hackers allegedly shows active duty Finnish military personnel in Ukraine acting as instructors.


An explosion took place in Nikolaev as an accident during offloading munitions. Secondary explosions during the fire injured some of the firefighters. This is a reminder of associated burdens that come with the war effort despite not being directly caused by enemy action. Accidents in general are going to be more common in Russia and Ukraine during this time due to the stress the war places on resources and infrastructure.


Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkov, recently announced that the city has lost the ability to generate its own electricity.


In Warsaw large crouds of Ukrainian citizens are trying to get their passports, ahead of the new restrictions.


It appears Poland and Lithuania are ready to deport Ukrainian refugees whose passports Ukraine is refusing to renew. Germany isn't, which likely will lead to many heading to Germany. Overall it's quickly becoming clear that Ukraine's population is less and less willing to fight the longer this goes on.


Russia's famous Sberbank has refused to open branches in newly annexed areas. Note while these might look like legitimate concerns about the war causing operational issues, it's not that. At this point operating in Belgorod is more dangerous then operating in a place like Lugansk or Mariupol'. This is no doubt an attempt to avoid sanctions.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ocheretino looks like a really bad loss for Ukraine with like some severe consequences.

Another Abrams has been hit near Avdeevka, presumably somewhere around the Ocheretino area. The spectacular explosion suggests ammo cooking off, but of course this doesn't guarantee destruction.

What’s that thing that has a flight pattern of a paper-made airplane, the kind that kids make? The strike number two in the video, I believe.

Russian cluster munition strike against an alleged Ukrainian staging area, Dnepropetrovsk area.

There is a lot of footage of Russians hitting Ukrainian positions with cluster bombs and missiles and it seems to be ever increasing. I noted here a long (seems like?) while ago that the footage and use was really picking up and it was concerning. It (the footage) was pretty rare to practically nonexistent before the Americans sent their cluster artillery shells last July.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ocheretino looks like a really bad loss for Ukraine with like some severe consequences.
I think the fall of Avdeevka was a breakthrough of Ukrainian lines. They tried to plug it with reserves but didn't manage to completely solidify the front line and Russia is still exploiting that breakthrough. One could plausibly point to how slow it is, but considering the overall tempo of the war, even this makes sense. At the same time I don't see a strategic goal here. Not that there isn't one, it's just not obvious yet.

What’s that thing that has a flight pattern of a paper-made airplane, the kind that kids make? The strike number two in the video, I believe.
We've had several videos of this sort of thing. It's either wind, or some sort of counter-AAA maneuver. Unclear.

There is a lot of footage of Russians hitting Ukrainian positions with cluster bombs and missiles and it seems to be ever increasing. I noted here a long (seems like?) while ago that the footage and use was really picking up and it was concerning. It (the footage) was pretty rare to practically nonexistent before the Americans sent their cluster artillery shells last July.
They started last winter slowly and ramped up since then. I haven't seen any numbers on recent daily averages, so it's hard to say if it's still around 50+ or if it's getting closer to 100.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
It appears Poland and Lithuania are ready to deport Ukrainian refugees whose passports Ukraine is refusing to renew. Germany isn't, which likely will lead to many heading to Germany. Overall it's quickly becoming clear that Ukraine's population is less and less willing to fight the longer this goes on.

While out of desperation, I think this was a pretty dumb move by the Ukrainian authorities. I am talking about the new passport renewal restrictions for those men abroad. Surely, the largest effect it will have is those who can will be ditching Ukrainian citizenship over whatever status they could get elsewhere. This could be an exception, but everyone I know here (I think I already mentioned it before) who ran from Ukraine had either already received a refugee status or in the process of doing so. No one is coming back in the foreseeable future. Yes, I agree that most likely those who can will move to Germany or elsewhere, wherever. I also do not see how any of these men can be of much use on the frontline, aside from meat pressing a trigger until getting wounded or killed. I mean those who stayed in the country do not appear to be overly motivated to sign up to go to war; those who used the opportunity to run, are surely on the extreme end of that “not motivated” spectrum.

I really am having hard times imagining how they are going to mobilize the numbers they say they need. And I am mot even talking about morale here because that is probably about as low as it can get. What’s clear is that it now appears to be obvious Ukraine is severely lacking manpower.

I saw estimates of the western analysts that if some of the western countries decide to send the troops to the western Ukraine, as well as Belorussian border, etc, this could free up as many as 20,000 Ukrainian troops to be sent to the battlefield. Not only this isn’t nearly sufficient, I am fairly certain most of those troops stationed wherever they are now are probably aren’t very motivated to go to war either. I would suspect some/many/most got there via bribery or due to personal connections in order to avoid the meat grinder. That is a speculation on my part, but an educated one, so to speak.

The other news I saw indicated that the Ukrainian parliament passed the law to increase the border guards by 15,000 (!) - I am assuming to prevent people escaping the country via any means they can, basically, due to the recent mobilization law.


This pretty much takes up most, if not all, the troops that would be freed if the west decides to take over some “functions”. So, not only this is a dumb idea (sending western troops) and extremely escalating to begin with, now it is pretty clear it would bring zero returns in regard to the availability of manpower for the direct war effort. Sure, the logistics, repairs and maintenance, training, etc would benefit greatly - until these western units start getting hit by the Russians, that is. I was planning to make an extensive post on the subject for a while, but I don’t think this is going to happen.

It is also pretty clear now that the 1-million army doesn’t exist.



A few other tidbits. A couple of days ago, Ukrainians claimed to have hit another S-300/400 battery. Various sources cite the same video and state different amount of success, but the minimal claim (cited below) is that they have taken out the radar; others claim launchers and a tonne of other things:


I have no idea what was hit and what wasn’t (if anything all), but the interesting thing is that, to my unprofessional eye, those almost look like artillery strikes, no?

Another tidbit. A Ukrainian UAV built out of a small aircraft crashed (due to reasons unknown to me) somewhere in Russia and there are some good photos of what it looks like:


I could probably dig up more info at the source, but I am more interested in the photos than why it came down or where it was heading. Another thing to note about that particular post is that it says that a similar (or the same) type of UAV hit a “hostel” in Yelabuga, Tatarstan. This was what the Russians said about the attack; Ukrainians insisted (and were cited by some western media outlets) that they hit a manufacturing and a drone production facility in particular.

One more tidbit. The Ukrainians (definitely allegedly) hit a small group of the Russian troops on motorcycles. I have read about them using motorcycles before, but this is the best video of such use that I saw.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
As per US officials, Ukraine sidelines the Abrams until further notice due to threat from the Russian drones:


On the subject of western tanks, now that I remembered, an article by Kiev Post from a month ago or so. They call them “mostly overweight duds”.


On a different subject. In Kherson region, the “Russian” side, there were 7 people murdered. Two Russians soldiers were detained as suspects. One was an ex-convict, who was sentenced as recently as 2021 for drugs, robbery, and murder. Must be the dividends of convicts running wild with weapons paying off.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
On a different subject. In Kherson region, the “Russian” side, there were 7 people murdered. Two Russians soldiers were detained as suspects. One was an ex-convict, who was sentenced as recently as 2021 for drugs, robbery, and murder. Must be the dividends of convicts running wild with weapons paying off.

It's far from the first such incident and I have no doubt there will be more. War in general often brings out the worst in people. And there's a definite break down of order in war zones. I'm typically happier seeing Russia prosecute people for this, the I am seeing crickets, as if nothing is happening, when we can be confident there is.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
While out of desperation, I think this was a pretty dumb move by the Ukrainian authorities. I am talking about the new passport renewal restrictions for those men abroad.
As much I understand those who wants to avoid going to the frontline (I would also), as much I understand the Ukrainian government to act against duty evaders. They can't do much and I think that this synbolic move is the right thing to do. Note that consular services are paid services, so they don't cost Ukraine anything. It's purely symbolical.

The problem is not that Ukraine can't mobilize more men, the problem is that Russia can mobilize in numbers that seem infinite.
Russia is much more though against those who left the country to evade mobilization or draft. These are stripped from the Russian nationality and lose all the real estate they have in Russia. Yet Russia can mobilize enough men for the Special Military Operation without such measures because the pay is very attractive.
I don't know how attractive or unattractive the pay is on the Ukrainian side. But fact is Russia has much more money than Ukraine.

The morale in Ukrainian ranks is probably not very high, given that they lose ground and had suffer high losses. I listened that the decision by the US Congress to pass the bill had an immediate boost on the morale of the soldiers in the trenches. But they will need some victory to motivate the new recruits.
Paradoxaly, the morale in the Russian army is higher, and not that bad. The mere fact that Russian foot soldiers can assault Ukrainian positions shows that the morale and the will to fight is still there, as if their losses didn't count.
It sounds unbelievable, but these soldiers are believing more in the duty to fight the Nazy now than in 2022 (off line source). They believe it.
They also believe that in the West, there is no liberty of expression, that we can't write or say what we want on social media and that we would be much better off in Russia. (!)
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
As much I understand those who wants to avoid going to the frontline (I would also), as much I understand the Ukrainian government to act against duty evaders. They can;t do much and I think that this synbolic move is the right thing to do. Note that consular services are paid services, so they don't cost Ukraine anything. It's purely symbolical.

The problem is not that Ukraine can't mobilize more men, the problem is that Russia can mobilize in numbers that seem infinite.
The problem is that mobilizing men is getting more and more difficult for Ukraine. I.e. it's taking more time and effort to get people. Remember, Russia isn't mobilizing at all. Russia mobilized one wave in '22, and since then it's been volunteer recruitment with very attractive salaries.

Russia is much more though against those who left the country to evade mobilization of draft. These are stripped from the Russian nationality and lose all the real estate they have in Russia. Yet Russia can mobilize enough men for the Special Military Operation without such measures because the pay is very attractive.
I don't know how attractive or unattractive the pay is on the Ukrainian side. But fact is Russia has much more money than Ukraine.
Ukraine isn't denying consular services to just draft dodgers. As far as I can tell, it's all men between 18 and 60. The mobilization in Ukraine only affects people over 25. In other words, if you're a woman with two kids, and you left the country two years ago when the war started, and now one of your kids turns 18 and is male, they will be denied consular services, despite not being a draft dodger in any meaningful way. They wouldn't be going to war if they lived in Ukraine, but if they live abroad they will be denied consular services. In point of fact this affects people who left Ukraine before the war, but still have a Ukrainian passport. If they're male between 18 and 60, they can't get their passport renewed which means the optimal solution for any adult male with Ukrainian citizenship is to ditch their Ukrainian citizenship and ensure stable residence permissions (like a green card in the US) or better yet foreign citizenship, and to forget Ukraine like a nightmare. It's a bad move from the standpoint of post-war returning population, but it's a move that with cooperation from Poland and a few other countries may result in some population being forcibly returned to Ukraine to be fed into the meatgrinder.

The morale in Ukrainian ranks is probably not very high, given that they lose ground and had suffer high losses. I listened that the decision by the US Congress to pass the bill had an immediate boost on the morale of the soldiers in the trenches. But they will need some victory to motivate the new recruits.
Paradoxaly, the morale in the Russian army is higher, and not that bad. The mere fact that Russian foot soldiers can assault Ukrainian positions shows that the morale and the will to fight is still there, as if their losses didn't count.
There is nothing paradoxical about it. Russian forces are set in what appear to be two echelons, and rotate regularly to the rear. Russian forces have abundant ammunition, and friendly artillery is overwhelming. They've also almost never suffered from Ukrainian airstrikes and enemy artillery has become scarce, if they are wounded care is provided and their salary remains intact (contrast with some cases where wounded Ukrainian service members are placed outside of the force org and paid a nominal salary so small you can't eat on it), if they're killed their family is paid out bundles of cash, and their own paychecks are well above typical Russian salary. Add to that the fact that in many areas they do relatively little fighting (I know mobilized personnel that have essentially not seen combat despite being in uniform since fall of '22) and there's little reason for morale to be low. The current tempo of the fighting is set by Russia, which means Russia will lose as many or as few men as it chooses to. And Ukrainian lines have collapsed in at least one spot. It's not yet to the point where Russian pincers are slicing up Ukrainian defense lines, but it's definitely a bad situation around Donetsk, where the focus of Russian efforts is.

It sounds unbelievable, but these soldiers are believing more in the duty to fight the Nazy now than in 2022 (off line source). They believe it.
They also believe that in the West, there is no liberty of expression, that we can't write or say what we want on social media and that we would be much better off in Russia. (!)
Again, nothing unbelievable about it. Russia's information space has been sanitized far more then it was pre-war, and let's be clear, freedom of speech isn't having it's greatest moment in the western world right now. This makes is easy for Russian propaganda to magnify what otherwise might be fairly minor incidents and paint a certain picture domestically.

I think that as long as Russia can provide the generous financial incentives and social support package that service members get, as long as the situation on the front lines doesn't deteriorate rapidly, and as long as the casualty rates remain relatively low (emphasis on relatively) morale will remain relatively high.
 

Redshift

Active Member
The problem is that mobilizing men is getting more and more difficult for Ukraine. I.e. it's taking more time and effort to get people. Remember, Russia isn't mobilizing at all. Russia mobilized one wave in '22, and since then it's been volunteer recruitment with very attractive salaries.



Ukraine isn't denying consular services to just draft dodgers. As far as I can tell, it's all men between 18 and 60. The mobilization in Ukraine only affects people over 25. In other words, if you're a woman with two kids, and you left the country two years ago when the war started, and now one of your kids turns 18 and is male, they will be denied consular services, despite not being a draft dodger in any meaningful way. They wouldn't be going to war if they lived in Ukraine, but if they live abroad they will be denied consular services. In point of fact this affects people who left Ukraine before the war, but still have a Ukrainian passport. If they're male between 18 and 60, they can't get their passport renewed which means the optimal solution for any adult male with Ukrainian citizenship is to ditch their Ukrainian citizenship and ensure stable residence permissions (like a green card in the US) or better yet foreign citizenship, and to forget Ukraine like a nightmare. It's a bad move from the standpoint of post-war returning population, but it's a move that with cooperation from Poland and a few other countries may result in some population being forcibly returned to Ukraine to be fed into the meatgrinder.



There is nothing paradoxical about it. Russian forces are set in what appear to be two echelons, and rotate regularly to the rear. Russian forces have abundant ammunition, and friendly artillery is overwhelming. They've also almost never suffered from Ukrainian airstrikes and enemy artillery has become scarce, if they are wounded care is provided and their salary remains intact (contrast with some cases where wounded Ukrainian service members are placed outside of the force org and paid a nominal salary so small you can't eat on it), if they're killed their family is paid out bundles of cash, and their own paychecks are well above typical Russian salary. Add to that the fact that in many areas they do relatively little fighting (I know mobilized personnel that have essentially not seen combat despite being in uniform since fall of '22) and there's little reason for morale to be low. The current tempo of the fighting is set by Russia, which means Russia will lose as many or as few men as it chooses to. And Ukrainian lines have collapsed in at least one spot. It's not yet to the point where Russian pincers are slicing up Ukrainian defense lines, but it's definitely a bad situation around Donetsk, where the focus of Russian efforts is.



and let's be clear, freedom of speech isn't having it's greatest moment in the western world right now.
Could you clarify this a little and put it into context with Russia and China please?

I cannot even begin to any equivalence, plus "the West" is NOT a single entity.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Could you clarify this a little and put it into context with Russia and China please?

I cannot even begin to any equivalence, plus "the West" is NOT a single entity.
I am only addressing that very final statement, I thought that I had removed all of your other text
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Remember, Russia isn't mobilizing at all. Russia mobilized one wave in '22, and since then it's been volunteer recruitment with very attractive salaries.
This is playing with words. Yes, technically, Russia is not mobilizing... they hire volunteers. But the effect is identical.

Feanor said:
Ukraine isn't denying consular services to just draft dodgers. As far as I can tell, it's all men between 18 and 60.
I don't remember myself, but there is something like that. Yes. All men between 18 and 60 (give or take a couple of years) can be called under the flags.
They are not all called, because there should be a mobilization decree for that, but Ukraine doesn't want their men to flee and stay abroad in case they would decide to mobilize them. They would like the men to have the courage to stay in the country.
If they are too coward, or not patriot enough to return to their country, then their passport is not renewed.

As you say, they are still free to give up their Ukrainian citizenship and migrate where they find a host country.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This is playing with words. Yes, technically, Russia is not mobilizing... they hire volunteers. But the effect is identical.
It's really not. Forced mobilization stresses the population much more and gets you personnel who don't want to be there. Volunteers are there because they want to be and are consequently... how did you put it?

Paradoxaly, the morale in the Russian army is higher, and not that bad. The mere fact that Russian foot soldiers can assault Ukrainian positions shows that the morale and the will to fight is still there, as if their losses didn't count.
It's a pretty significant practical difference. Remember the context for this discussion. We're talking about morale.

I don't remember myself, but there is something like that. Yes. All men between 18 and 60 (give or take a couple of years) can be called under the flags.
They are not all called, because there should be a mobilization decree for that, but Ukraine doesn't want their men to flee and stay abroad in case they would decide to mobilize them. They would like the men to have the courage to stay in the country.
If they are too coward, or not patriot enough to return to their country, then their passport is not renewed.

As you say, they are still free to give up their Ukrainian citizenship and migrate where they find a host country.
Right now Russian social media is buzzing with the idea of a simplified residency or citizenship process for Ukrainians that don't want to fight and are abroad. I'm not sure if it will actually happen, but it would be one hell of a move.

I am only addressing that very final statement, I thought that I had removed all of your other text
There have been a number of situations in western Europe where people were arrested for speech or speech-related crimes. If you're a Russian propagandist, you can easily point to those with a magnifying glass and compare to Russia. Russia doesn't have freedom of speech, but the position they've used hasn't been a claim of "we're better then them". Instead they're taking the position of "they're no better then us" to imply that the freedom of speech that has traditionally been associated with western liberal democracy isn't really there. It's not necessarily true, nor do the incidents in question reflect the general situation, but it makes for effective propaganda, especially when you consider the sanitized internal media space in Russia. You can zoom in on racial, gender, migrant issues, etc. blow them out of proportion, and present laws against hate speech as equivalent or comparable to Russian restrictions on speech.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian advances around the Ocheretino salient and in Krasnogorovka are continuing. I will try to do an updated today or tomorrow, but this looks to be quite a successful operation, and one that is clearly far from over. Russia appears to have taken Semenovka and Berdychy, and is on the verge of taking Novokalinovo and Keramik. Arkhangel'skoe is also threatened. It will be interesting to see if Russia continues north, pushes northwest, north-east, or just west. That will tell us a lot about the ultimate intent.
 

Redshift

Active Member
It's really not. Forced mobilization stresses the population much more and gets you personnel who don't want to be there. Volunteers are there because they want to be and are consequently... how did you put it?



It's a pretty significant practical difference. Remember the context for this discussion. We're talking about morale.



Right now Russian social media is buzzing with the idea of a simplified residency or citizenship process for Ukrainians that don't want to fight and are abroad. I'm not sure if it will actually happen, but it would be one hell of a move.



There have been a number of situations in western Europe where people were arrested for speech or speech-related crimes. If you're a Russian propagandist, you can easily point to those with a magnifying glass and compare to Russia. Russia doesn't have freedom of speech, but the position they've used hasn't been a claim of "we're better then them". Instead they're taking the position of "they're no better then us" to imply that the freedom of speech that has traditionally been associated with western liberal democracy isn't really there. It's not necessarily true, nor do the incidents in question reflect the general situation, but it makes for effective propaganda, especially when you consider the sanitized internal media space in Russia. You can zoom in on racial, gender, migrant issues, etc. blow them out of proportion, and present laws against hate speech as equivalent or comparable to Russian restrictions on speech.
Fair enough, and I agree in general. However when you have such total control of your own media as China does (and Russia these days) you can say whatever you like, "the West" isn't even vaguely close, noone , literally noone crises Xi or Putin , compare that to Rishi (useless) Sunak or poor old doddery Biden/Trump
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
The west has dithered and this is the result. They should have went hard as soon as Russia invaded and sent Ukraine whatever it asked for. Instead they drip fed Ukraine just equipment to hold the line.

What we have now is a resurgent Russia with a war economy and battle hardened troops. I only see two things that can happen now. An eventual Russian victory or a far greater war involving NATO forces. When they say appeasement doesn't work this is what they mean.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The west has dithered and this is the result. They should have went hard as soon as Russia invaded and sent Ukraine whatever it asked for. Instead they drip fed Ukraine just equipment to hold the line.

What we have now is a resurgent Russia with a war economy and battle hardened troops. I only see two things that can happen now. An eventual Russian victory or a far greater war involving NATO forces. When they say appeasement doesn't work this is what they mean.
Ukraine could take the Finnish option (remember the Winter War?) lose some territory, but remain intact and independent. A greater war involving NATO forces would likely result in either a nuclear standoff (best case scenario) or nuclear war (worst case). The problem is that the longer the war goes on, the worse an eventual Finnish option becomes, since Ukraine is steadily losing territory and population, not to mention the continued destruction of infrastructure through Russian strikes.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Some good thoughts by Rob Lee from his post on Twitter, though the link below should be readable to anyone (?):


Note that in his opinion, if Ukraine doesn’t solve the manpower issue, the second half of 2024 will be more difficult for them. I tend to think this will be the case for the reasons I outlined in my previous posts.

A short but good writeup on the Orlan UAV:


What we have now is a resurgent Russia with a war economy and battle hardened troops.
That is why common sense suggested to negotiate in the fall of 2022, when Russia was at its weakest and Ukraine was in the best position, one they will likely never see again. But I already talked about it numerous times, so no need to repeat. Now (or for now) is a “worst” case scenario for the “west”.

I only see two things that can happen now. An eventual Russian victory or a far greater war involving NATO forces. When they say appeasement doesn't work this is what they mean.
I agree on the former. And I hope that the greater war will be avoided. I said a while ago that the “west” would likely send troops to the right bank of the river if the Ukrainian lines were to collapse, which I said was a stretch and not worth discussing. It surely is not as much of a stretch now as it seemed a few/couple of months ago.

On the latter, I do not believe in appeasement. I believe I wrote quite extensively on the subject of commitment on a couple of occasions. This is true for the Russians as much as it was true for the sponsors of Ukraine. It is not possible to predict how things would have developed otherwise. For example, while now we think the nuclear threat may have been overestimated, it was not the case at the time and it is impossible to say which is the case with any high degree of certainty. So I do not believe appeasement is the proper way to look at it.

While the situation was never great for Ukraine, it is now in a really bad spot. Russia can continue to be creeping in for a long time, slowly grinding through the Ukrainian troops and annihilating the infrastructure, most importantly energy, and it is not a wild dream that they will eventually put the entire or, at the very least, most of the country to darkness. Note that they could have done that last year, but they chose to hit the transmission rather than generation capabilities, which further supports a slow escalation and commitment theory, as situation dictates. A lot of the Russian “hawks” suggested way back when this should have been done from the beginning and they were questioning the decision not to strike the power generating assets at the time. Now some suggest that the nuclear power generation should be part of the equation as well.

Anyway, they can keep doing what they are doing for a while yet and simply see the country shrinking and falling apart on its own via migration, lack of funds, degrading economy, and so on.

On this note, it appears (for now) Spain and Greece are not going to send additional air defense systems to Ukraine:


These are the very assets that were counted on in the recent announcements by the Germans and others. We will see what happens.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
As per US officials, Ukraine sidelines the Abrams until further notice due to threat from the Russian drones:
It makes sens. I'm surprised that they mention only drones and don't talk about anti-tank mines and lack of fuel as other reasons.
The Abrams'advantage is moving fast and eliminate ennemie's vehicles. I think that last year thier plan was to use them once the Russian defence line would be broken and a route through the land mines secured. Abrams would then driving fast into Russian held territory.
The other use was to keep them as a reserve in case Russians would cross Ukrainian lines or start a new offensive from the north with armour.
In these two cases, Abrams would have been very effective. But none of these happened.

In a defensive role, the Abrams is not much an advantage compared with other tanks. The tanks stay more in the same locations and are easily detectable with drones. In this situation the Abrams will be knocked out as easily (or almost) as a T70. The only difference is that the crew will more likely survive in an Abrams than in a T70.

So it's logical to move the tanks away unless you realy need them.
It makes sens to remove Abrams first because they are more expensive and consume more fuels than other tanks.

Feanor said:
Ukraine could take the Finnish option (remember the Winter War?) lose some territory, but remain intact and independent.
This would be wise. But there are conditions for it to work.
It could work if Ukraine is allowed to join NATO or that NATO countries can deploy military forces in Ukraine to make clear that Russia can't invade it further.
We can't trust Russia if they ask Ukraine to be demilitarized, or absent of Western military forces because that would mean that Russia keeps the right to invade Ukraine again in the future.
It would take the Russians to understadn that the new Ukrainian borders will be very strongly fortified if they want some form of recognition.

The fear that a Russian victory could urge other coutries to do the same is also valid. We can't create a precedent when an invading force succeeds and benefits from the agression.
Making Russia pay the highest price for their territory gain is showing that using military force to redesign internationaly recognised borders is not that easy.
That's what we are doing now.

I said:
But the effect is identical.
Feanor said:
It's really not. Forced mobilization stresses the population much more and gets you personnel who don't want to be there. Volunteers are there because they want to be
I agree but it's still x people moving to the battle field instead of somewhere else in the economy.
There is one positive point: The redistribution of the massive wealth Russia has accumulated from the oil sales. The money goes to poor people and poor regions and boost local economy.
However there is a better and more effective way to do this than war.
The positive effect will be felt for 2 or 3 years, then will fade away. The money is not used for long term benefits like education, health care or industry. It's just people spending it, at best in new housing.
This war creates inflation and those who don't benefit from the war chest get disadvantaged.
But it's still better than trillions sleeping in the sovereign fund or held by a handful of oligarch. At least the money is more dispersed.

Feanor said:
Right now Russian social media is buzzing with the idea of a simplified residency or citizenship process for Ukrainians that don't want to fight and are abroad.
Someone told me about that. Russian consulates and embassies in Europe offer the Russian citizenship to whoever identify him or herself as Russian and feel oppressed by the West. It can be anyone who live in Europe and speaks Russian. Not even sure if speaking Russian is a requirement but the Russian government consider anybody who speaks Russian as normaly part of the Russian nation. The only condition is to go to live in Russia.

There is a widely shared feeling among Russian speakers in Europe, mainly in the Baltic states, that they will be better off if they lived in Russia and some of them are liiving for Russia for good. They would also agree if Russia annexed the Baltics. It's not the majority of Russian speakers but a significant proportion.

Feanor said:
There have been a number of situations in western Europe where people were arrested for speech or speech-related crimes.
I can show you some You Tube chanels in English or French (and certainly in other languages I'm not following) where known people are openly defending or actively spreading Putin's views. And they are not arrested.
By known people. I mean people who are identified by their real name and who even have or had a public function. Some of them are former military or intel officers.
They are not being arrested and their videos can be viewed in Europe and they score hundreds of thousands Like's.

I would even say that there is more freedom of speech about Ukraine than about Covid or Climate Change. Topics for which you can by tried and get into serious troubles.
 
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