KipPotapych said:
that may indicate further incompetence of the decision makers, wouldn’t you agree? Why would they be building fortifications at Belarus border when they were or now? Zelensky also said they were planning to build some around Kiev
No, I don't think so. It made sens to secure the northern border while the fightings were in the south and the east.
The incompetence was not to build them on the Dombas and Zaporizha.
KipPotapych said:
The version described in Forbes, that you quoted, is the one I heard from the sources I generally find reliable,
But Forbe takes forcibly their sources from Ukrainian official sources. I don't think that commanders are able to talk to foreign journalists directly.
Also, I don't see too many contradictions in the version by Forbe and the Ukrainian version.
I think that the Ukrainians didn't use the word "
rotation" properly. Rotation maens that a brigade is replaced by an equivalent one. The 45th was not replaced at all or was replaced by a fully infantry one (with very few vehicles, and if the photo on the website is descriptive of the reality, there is no wonder why they lost their position.)
Apparently it's just the 45th that left, taking with them the Abrams that
were withdrawn from the front everybody talked about for days. Then came back in emergency.
KipPotapych said:
The Swiss government said the talks will build on Zelenskiy's peace formula, calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops and bringing Russia to account for its actions, as well as other proposals based on the U.N. Charter and key principles of international law.
From today’s Reuters article. Personally, I don’t see how a rational person would even consider attending if they were in Russia’s shoes.
No rational person would fit in Russian shoes at the moment.
But, jokes aside, yes, there is no point for Russia attending but it has nothing to do with the lack of Swiss neutrality or with Zelensky.
It's not a peace negociation summit. It's just a conference with all the countries who wish to participate. It's like the COP23 for Ukraine or something like that. Lots of talks, handshakes, group pictures but no tangible result.
Note that the article mention "
Zelenskiy's peace formula"
as well as other proposals. It's not only about Zelensky's utopian desires. It's about various proposals that any participant can bring up. I guess the Chinese Peace Plan will also be discussed. Thought it doesn't contain anything concrete. But for the form, they will.
In this context there is no added value for Russia to go there to hear that they are criminals and that they should withdraw their troops. They won't hear anything new there. And we won't hear anything new from them neither.
A peace summit won't happen in Switzerland with 150 participants. It will be Russian and Ukrainian delegates only, somewhere in Belarus.
KipPotapych said:
General Skibitsky said:
The Russians will take the Baltics in seven days,”he argues, somewhat implausibly. “NATO’s reaction time is ten days
(This is unsubstantiated nonsense, in my opinion, and fear mongering)
Absolutely. NATO's reaction won't be ten days, but ten seconds.
To invade and hold the three Baltic States, Russia would need 200,000 soldiers and a solid equipment.
I think that by
ten days, he means that countries forming NATO are extremely slow to react. Of course, NATO troops watching the border with Russia will react immediately if someone tries to cross.
David Cameron said:
Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia
I would say it's bad news for Putin. So far he could count on the cautious policies of European states. This + Macron's talk of sending troops gives him gradually another message.
That, of course, brings us closer to the day when Russia will bomb targets on a NATO territory. But I don't think that he will drop nukes. Not immediately.
In the meantime, Ukrainians could target a little bit more logistic inside Russia. I don't think that the new capability used by the Ukrainians inside Russia will be of such importance that Putin will go nuclear.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy said:
the number of Ukrainians with disabilities has increased by 300,000 since the February 2022 full-scale invasion by Russia. More than 20,000 people have had amputations.
If these were WIA, and considered that you should, then, add half this amount of KIA, the Ukrainian defence forces would have ceased to exist already.
I imagine that a lot of them have paid their family doctor to write disability certificates.
Another big part of the unfortunates who where really amputated or disabled, are also civilians.
These numbers are no less worrysome.
Bloomberg said:
nearly half the Russians that left the country when invasion began and during the mobilization are back to Russia.
Perhaps it's not the same that left that came back. As I wrote already earlier, there is a widening Russian resurgence movement in Europe and some
ethnic Russians decide to go live in Russia.
I don't know if the numbers are statisticallly significant because it's mostly Russians from the Baltics. But there is such movement.
A more probable reason is that many of them are not allowed to stay in Europe as their visa or residence permit expired and authorities makes clear that they don't want them to stay.
At the same time, European embassies in Moscow reject most asylum and visa applications.
Thirdly, the panic has tamed. They see that the general mobilisation didn't materialised. And at the same time, these Russians don't want more trouble, like losing their citizenship, losing their real estate, losing the possibility to visit their parents as they lose the possibility to return to Russia at all if they don't do it now.
The same reasons which prevent Russians to leave force them to come back.
