The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

seaspear

Well-Known Member
With the amount of privatization and seizure of businesses going on if not private property why are the latest escalations seen as a surprise , international law to be cited seems to ignore what has been happening
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The Ukrainians reported and the Russians later confirmed a strike on a ship called “Kommuna”. The extent of the damage unknown. The interesting bit for me was that, according to the Military Observer, this is oldest “rescue ship” in Russia and the world and first set sail in 1913! Lol. Looks like Ukraine did Russia a favour there. Unless they’ll patch it up and off it goes again!


The post also reports that the person who shot the video was detained.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Gun based AA such as the Bofos L70 seems to be the cost effective option. Oerlikon GDF 35mm is more plentiful but has slightly less range.
While I do not posses sufficient expertise on the subject matter, I am with Feanor and vikingstesp on this.

Also agree with Feanor on the density issue. Plus the production number cited by the Ukrainian source is quite significant. However, why the likes of these (and less capable) guns aren’t set up within the vicinity of the critical infrastructure sites, I am not sure. It does seem to me that that is a realistic and achievable scenario. Maybe not as relevant for Ukraine due to the Russian use of a wide range of missiles to hit their targets (still not completely useless since UAV strikes are not marginal), but I do not quite understand the lack of equivalent guns in Russia protecting their refineries, power stations, etc. The drones used by Ukraine for attacks on Russia, while capable as it has been proven, are fairly primitive and should not be presenting a threat as they do now. One would think the Russians would come up with a working solution by now.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If there was any doubt, it appears 4 S-300/400 TELs burned in the recent Ukrainian strike on Dzhankoy area, Crimea. Note the earlier photo of half-burned down TELs was unrelated. This is one of the most damaging Ukrainian SEAD/DEAD strikes of the entire war. Also interesting (and damning) is that all 4 TELs were in a row in a small area. No dispersal.

 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Its hard to know of numbers of the S-400 deployed/destroyed in Crimea after this but is there a possibility that the recent missiles strike on the Russian ship was because of such a gap in coverage
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Its hard to know of numbers of the S-400 deployed/destroyed in Crimea after this but is there a possibility that the recent missiles strike on the Russian ship was because of such a gap in coverage
Was there something specifically different about this strike as compared to the others?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Its hard to know of numbers of the S-400 deployed/destroyed in Crimea after this but is there a possibility that the recent missiles strike on the Russian ship was because of such a gap in coverage
Of course it's possible. It would even make sense for Ukraine to hit a SAM and then try to hit a ship. However it's unclear whether it's in fact the case, and unless someone who shouldn't starts talking publicly, we won't find out for a long time.

EDIT: Minor point, there is quite a bit to update, I had a busy weekend. I will try to do it today. A brief recap; Russia has finally taken Novomihailovka. Russia is also advancing in the fields south of it. This creates a situation where the road to Ugledar can be cut without necessarily capturing Konstantinovka. Russia has made some gains in the Mar'inka area, but minor stuff. Russia is also expanding their area of control inside Krasnogorovka. North of there, near Pervomayskoe, Russia has entered Netaylovo and is finally closing the gap between the salient at Nevel'skoe, and the main area in Pervomayskoe. Russian advances west of Avdeevka seem to have stopped for now, minus continuing gains inside Semenovka, where the village appears to be on the verge of falling, Ukrainian forces just hold a small area on the northern outskirts. Russian forces are attacking north and north-west of Avdeevka where they have captured the entire southern part of Ocheretino and as far north as the rail station. Russian forces are also expanding their area of control inside Novokalinovo. The situation in Ocheretino is bizarre, since it's one hell of a salient with a very thin spot north-west of the Zarya summer cottages. Reportedly a Ukrainian unit abandoned their positions, making this possible. If Ocheretino falls, Novobakhmutovka, Novokalinovo, and possible Solovievo, are going to fall relatively quickly. Near Chasov Yar Russian forces continue to creep forward north and south of the Canal neighborhood. Bogdanovka is reportedly now fully in Russian hands.

EDIT2: Ukrainian defences in Ocheretino appear to be collapsing. Russian forces just raised the flag on the administration building, north of the rail line. Typically flag raising involves having the area already secured, and we're getting info as it comes out. Often flag raising is a sign that a local has fallen, and this is done as some sort of ceremony. It's possible Ocheretino has been taken and we just don't have confirmation yet. Either way this is another alarm bell for Ukraine.


EDIT3: Ok we have some clarity. Russian forces have seized the center of Ocheretino. It appears Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to the private sector houses around it. Note, while this is a significant grab, and gives Russia a fairly solid foothold, there is at least one other neighborhood of multi-story buildings on the eastern side and some industrial structures around the outskirts. The village is now contested. Note, we are getting reports with a delay compared to the actual situation on the ground.

 
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Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
However, why the likes of these (and less capable) guns aren’t set up within the vicinity of the critical infrastructure sites, I am not sure. It does seem to me that that is a realistic and achievable scenario. Maybe not as relevant for Ukraine due to the Russian use of a wide range of missiles to hit their targets (still not completely useless since UAV strikes are not marginal),
These flak guns, used to stop sub sonic planes may not be effective to very low flying shaheds. Guns have to rotate and move up and down very quickly and very precisely to hit them.
They use WW2 style projectors thought.

KipPotapych said:
but I do not quite understand the lack of equivalent guns in Russia protecting their refineries, power stations, etc.
Because Russians considered these place as safe, far enough from Ukraine. And they still do so as their reaction time is extremely long. Maybe in three months they will decide additional protection measures for these sites.
It's also materialy impossible to protect all potential targets in Russia, even re-using their soviet-size stockpiles of weapons.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The Ukrainians reported and the Russians later confirmed a strike on a ship called “Kommuna”. The extent of the damage unknown. The interesting bit for me was that, according to the Military Observer, this is oldest “rescue ship” in Russia and the world and first set sail in 1913! Lol. Looks like Ukraine did Russia a favour there. Unless they’ll patch it up and off it goes again!


The post also reports that the person who shot the video was detained.
The evidence from satellite imagery suggests that the damage is likely very minor if much at all.


The Military Observer suggests that initial theory of falling debris from an intercepted missile causing the fire that was quickly eliminated is likely valid.


So my theory of “patch it up and off it goes again” is valid as well, lol. Not bad for a supposedly (I didn’t check the validity of the statement about the age) 111-year old boat.

This is some funny stuff (using translation by Telegram from Ukrainian):

Fire on the left bank of temporarily occupied Mariupol. Judging by the geolocation, the hotel and office complex with warehouses is probably on fire, or nearby

And thanks to satellite intelligence, we know that the Russian occupiers are actively creating their bases in that industrial zone. We are waiting for official information or evidence

47.12639689350424, 37.653968036584416 [Approximate outbreak area]


It's not at all clear yet. On one side there is a military base, on the other there is a garbage dump, and if you look further, there is also a reed.

monitor and Andryushchenko apparently confirmed the hit, but no particular explosion was heard

I don't know, I'm waiting for proof


We part ways. Currently, all materials lead to the fact that a regular landfill is burning.

But "Andryushchenko Time" has been removed from "authoritative sources" from now on, a scumbag scumbag scumbag


Edit: In regard to the next aid package from the US, it is now reported that it will also include older Humvees, Bradleys, and missiles (no specification), and will be larger than usually:


Britain is expected to send a package as well worth 500M pounds. It will include 60 boats, 1,600 strike and AD missiles (including Storm Shadow) and some 400 armoured vehicles.


Another edit: I was wrong about the 400 armoured vehicles. It is 400 vehicles in total, 162 of which are armoured:



From this (re)tweet by Rob Lee.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
pdate.

Oskol front.

Near Terny there are 4 gullies that lead to the outskirts of the village. Counting from the bottom to the top, Russian forces have been up until now advancing in gullies 2 and 3. Most recently Ukrainian forces have recaptured some positions in 2, but lost some positions in 3.


Seversk salient.

Russia is continuing to creep forward in Belogorovka. But without taking the main refuse mound, Russia is unlikely to be able to take the entire village. Right now Russian forces hold one line of positions on the eastern outskirts of the mound.


Russian air strikes in Belogorovka.


Chasov Yar.

Russian forces are continuing their 3-pronged push into Chasov Yar. The focus of the attack is now on the northern and southern flanks. While technically Russia has entered the town, it's a long way from falling. Russian forces seem to now be full in control of Bogdanovka but Kalinovka is firmly in Ukrainian hands. That village will have to fall before Russia can push across the canal in the north. In the south Russian forces are near the canal, in the area where it's underground in pipes, but it's a fairly narrow salient. Russia has recently focused on expanding the base of the salient.


Russian forces taking out an artillery piece and a tank near Chasov Yar. Reportedly this is the 200th Arctic MRBde. We see no fires burn, and no secondary explosions, so one or both could be decoys. But the videos do end relatively quickly so it's hard to be sure either way.


A Ukrainian T-64BV hit near Chasov Yar, and then drove into a pond.


A Ukrainian towed cannon in Chasov Yar destroyed by Russia. This one we can see firing, definitely not a decoy.


A Ukrainian Kozak-7 armored car destroyed near Chasov Yar.


Ukrainian BMP-2 destroyed in Bogdanovka.


Allegedly a PzH-2000 hit near Chasov Yar. Personally I can't make out what they've hit, though it's something.


Russian Su-25s continue fairly brazen operations near Chasov Yar.


Russian strike using the Grom gliding munition against a factory in Chasov Yar.


Aerial footage of Chasov Yar.


Avdeevka area.

Russian forces have broken into Ocheretino, and have seized the central part of the village, including a neighborhood of multi-story buildings that provide good cover. Russia's foothold there appears secure and was reportedly made possible by a Ukrainian unit abandoning their positions. Rybar is claiming that Russia is wrapping up sweeps in the areas around the center, and it's possible we will see Russia in full or almost full control of the village. However the assault there forms a precarious salient flanked east and south by Ukrainian-held Novokalinovo and Novobakhmutovka. Novokalinovo is contested with Russian forces holding the eastern side of the village, on a high ground. And Ocheretino itself is on a highground compared to Novobakhmutovka.


A topographic look at Ocheretino and the surrounding area.


In Novokalinovo Russian forces are continuing to expand their salient in the east of the village, but so far the moves are relatively slow. If Novokalinovo falls, Russia will have a much easier road to Ocheretino and their foothold there will be much safer.


West of Avdeevka Russia is expanding their area of control in Semenovka. This comes after attempts to get across the river and hold positions in Berdychy have failed.


A T-64BV getting hit near Avdeevka.


Russian forces hauling away a captured Leo-2A6 from near Avdeevka. The tank in question apparently remained parked there since last October, due to being knocked out. Note it was initially reported without geo-location as a Leo-2A5. This led me to speculate that this vehicle was near Terny, but in reality it's a 2A6 near Avdeevka.


An allegedly Ukrainian civilian out of Odessa is reporting that Ukrainian soldiers blew up buildings with civilians inside of them before leaving. Unlike Mariupol' where reports of Ukrainian misbehavior were abundant, they were relatively scarce in Avdeevka.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Pervomayskoe area.

Russian forces have entered the eastern outskirts of Netaylovo. The village is now contested.


Russia has recently made some moves to close to the gap between Russian positions in Pervomayskoe and the salient in Nevel'skoe. There are now some reports that the area is actually empty of Ukrainian forces, Russia just isn't entering due to heavy land mines.


Russia has hit two T-64BVs near Karlovka, the next village west of Netaylovo.


Mar'inka area.

Russian forces are continuing to expand their area of control inside Krasnogorovka. However the factory in the center still appears to be in Ukrainian hands.


Another Ukrainian MBT, a T-72AV, hit in Krasnogorovka. Ukraine has lost a few tanks there, and it appears that Ukraine deployed reserves there that are now being slowly destroyed.


Russian 240mm mortar shells landing in Krasnogorovka.


Ugledar Area.

Russia has gained another chunk of ground along the high ground between Pobeda and Georgievka. Advances here are vital to Russia's ability to continue pushing in Georgievka. Ultimately the fall of Krasnogorovka, and Russian control of the heights south of the reservoirs is key to the eventual push on Kurakhovo.


Russian forces have taken all of Novomihailovka. They've also advanced along a wide front south of the village. The threat to the Konstantinovka-Ugledar road is still some distance away, but it's getting quite a bit closer. And the gains Russia is making south of the line of villages makes it possible to cut the road without actually taking Konstantinovka.


Zaporozhye.

Russian forces are continuing to gain ground in Zaporozhye, and to push westward out of Verbovoe but the efforts have slowed down considerably.


In the Rabotino salient, as Russian forces advance, they are capturing areas with knocked Ukrainian vehicles from last year. Here's a Leo-2A6.


Footage of the ruins of Rabotino.


Russian forces are continuing to slowly recaptured pieces of ground in the old Vermyevskiy bulge, but the efforts are minor compared to other areas. Attempts to get into Urozhaynoe have failed so far.


Border area.

A Ukrainian UAV allegedly dropped a munition on a house, killing 2 civilians, Belgorod region.


A Russian Forpost-RU doing fire correction for artillery firing on a Ukrainian vehicle column in Kharkov region.


Ukrainian UAVs have been reported attacking in Kurks, Belgorod, Lipetsk, and Bryansk regions.


The general pattern of Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod continues, though at a reduced level.


Russia's new BAZ-based Uragan variant in action, in the border area.


Gladkov, governor of Belgorod region, states that Ukrainian attacks have killed 120 civilians, and wounded 651 others.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Strikes.

Russia has repeatedly hit the Aviatorskaya airfield near Dnepropetrovsk, hitting S-300 positions twice, and hitting what appear to be 4 MiG-29s. We can't really tell how much damage the planes have taken but it's unlikely they emerged completely unscathed.


Russia has finally knocked down the TV tower in Kharkov. Russia tried to knock it down several times earlier in the war and did some damage but ultimately failed.


In Chernigov Russia hit a hotel that was apparently converted into a staging area for Ukrainian troops. Officially Ukraine admits 18 dead and 76 wounded. Russian sources are claiming as many as 40 dead.


A Russian strike on Krasniy Liman against allegedly Ukrainian staging areas.


Footage of the Tripol'skaya thermal plant, Kiev. It's pretty thoroughly destroyed.


In Dnepropetrovsk Russia hit a rail depot, causing trains in the area to be delayed, and the central bus terminal. A building next to the train station was also hit.


Damage to the machine hall of Dneproges.


Russian impacts in Krivoy Rog and Ivano-Frankovsk, targets unclear.


Russia hit the port of Yuzhniy, Odessa region, and fires have been burning for 3 days. One of the targets hit is reported as an agro-industrial terminal, which is in line with previous patterns. Other targets in the region are also reported. Most notably the bridge in Aleksandrovka had a destroyed locomotive parked there for days after the strike.


A Ukrainian UAV hit a fuel storage facility in Pskov region but failed to do damage.


Ukraine hit the Novobryanskaya power substation and a fuel storage facility in Smolensk region.


Ukraine recently hit the Lugansk Machinebuilding Plant 100 with Storm Shadows.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting bits.

Filming near a pile of wrecked vehicles. We have a BMP-2 with a thrown turret, a burned out BTR and MT-LB, and a knocked out BRDM-2M, a relatively scarce Russian BRDM-2 upgrade that has started to be inducted in larger quantities during this war. The person is speaking in Russian but this of course doesnt' tell us much. Also none of the vehicles appear to be carrying tactical markings of either side. Allegedly all the vehicles are Russian.


Ukrainian shelling hit a hospital in Gorlovka.


A Russian T-62M with a mine trawl, K-1, side cages, and a roof cage, knocked out somewhere.


Ukrainian forces have begun actively dropping caltrops from UAVs on roads in Russia's near-rear. They're using it to immobilize vehicles and then try to hit them with artillery or FPV drones.


Russian soldiers from the 11th Para-Assault Bde posing with a captured M113.


Russia is also manufacturing decoys, here are some of mortars and ATGM launchers.


Leaked documents show new Shahed variants being manufactured by Russia that use a Ukrainian SIM card and cell phone signal for positioning in addition to their usual means, and that carry new types of warheads.


More photos of improvised up-armored Russian MBTs. The effectiveness of these measures is questionable.


Russian BMP-2M with very impressive camouflage. However it again raises the question; why aren't the up-armor packages and 2M turret upgrades combined on the same vehicles?


A BTR-82AT with a roof cage. This is the most advanced BTR-80 variant and despite being in production pre-war, it remains relatively rare. Reasons are unclear.


Russia's new SVCh designated marksman rifle has shown up in the war zone. It's supposed to be an SVD replacement.


A Russian T-54B with a roof cage and K-1 armor, somewhere in Donetsk region.


Russian soldiers from Lugansk riding motorcycles. We've seen a few reports and some footage of motor-cycle assault teams in action. Usually they rely on speed.


American 203mm shells have shown up in Russian use. Previously Ukraine has also used them for their own 2S7s. Russia's shells might be sourced through Iran.


A Russian M46 (130mm) artillery piece using Iranian shells.


We have a first sighting of Crotale SAMs in Ukraine.


A Ukrainian Su-27 with HARMs and R-73s.


A damaged Ukrainian Patriot arriving in Pensylvania. Previously we've seen damaged HIMARS at this same airport.


Ukraine has changed laws, and is now denying consular services to Ukrainian men in foreign countries between the ages of 18 and 60 unless they are trying to return to Ukraine. This is an obvious move to try and force those people to return to Ukraine.


The new UK aid package to Ukraine will reportedly include 160 Husky IMVs, 162 other armored vehicles (possibly FV430 and FV100 series vehicles), 78 offroad vehicles (possibly Warthos) and 60 boats.


In addition to the German Patriot battery, reportedly 6 others will come from various NATO countries.


Lithuania has contributed an L-39 jet trainer to Ukraine.


Reportedly a permanent contingent of 60 US advisers are heading to Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if they're a priorty target for Russia.


The famous Russel Bentley is confirmed dead. Details are scarce.


We have some interesting statements from Lavrov. We've had a lot of speculation about Russia's negotiating position, and some pieces of it are emerging. He said that Russia won't pause combat operations during negotiations. This makes perfect sense and makes it impossible for Ukraine to use negotiations as a pre-text to get a break. He stated that negotiating with Zelensky is pointless for many reasons including because he banned himself from negotiating. Switzerland is unacceptable to Russia as a neutral country for negotiations because they have supported sanctions against Russia. Kharkov will play a role in the demilitarized zone Putin discussed. Russia is fully convinced they need to continue the special military operation.


An interesting phenomenon has emerged with Chinese internet users donating on Russian streams to get pictures and labels put on Russian shells being fired in the war.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The freezing of Russian assets is a case of force majeure superseding regulations.
Russia, since February 2022, is not a country like another anymore. Russia is bombing Ukraine daily, with massive amounts of shells and missiles, so freezing their assets is normal and logical.

I don't think that the validity of the asset freeze is contested anywhere in the world, save Iran, Syria or NK who have their own assets frozen by the US. Not every country is freezing assets but every country understands why we do.

Global South (which is not that much "South" by the way) doesn't reduce their Western Assets for this reason, but because their own economies and banking systems became safer and more profitable. Developing countries offer more growth opportunities, even if it can be bumpy at times, than the West. So it's logical that they invest in their own businesses, in their own country.

The other reason is the huge debt piling up like they were no tomorrow in the US, UK, France, Belgium, Italy and Spain to quote only the worse ones. It's not sound anymore to place huge amounts of sovereign fund money into sovereign bonds of most of the major Western countries.

Now, there is a big difference between freezing and seizure. Freezing supposes that the money still belongs to Russia and will be given back once things settle down. Which can take decades (see Iran) but ultimately Russia doesn't lose a cent.
If the assets are seized and spent, this is not fair because, assume that Putin is replaced by a pro-West leadership, we will owe this money our new friends. Among other cases where it can be a problem.
Any country who seized the assets would be in debt to Russia in the future, for generations. And this hurts the West's credibility.

Sorry for the off-topic.

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I agree with vikingatespam. Old Flak guns could hit planes in WW2 and the 50's, but Orlans are much smaller targets. I don't think these guns can fire at a target flying 5km high. That would suppose a 10km range unless they fire at the vertical.

The new German anti drone system has only a 2km range. (What was his name again? Skynex?)
Agree.
I saw a training on video of an anti-aircraft artillery unit shooting at a single orange coloured target drone for minutes. They had around 6 pieces of ZU-23-2 23 mm and 6 S-60 57 mm guns, the target drone flew at an altitude lower than 500 m and at a range of less than 1000 m and was circling around for minutes, and only then they were able to shoot it down.

And indeed, something like the Oerlikon Skyshield is very suitable and cost effective.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
With the amount of privatization and seizure of businesses going on if not private property why are the latest escalations seen as a surprise , international law to be cited seems to ignore what has been happening
I think if things were as simple, the money would be long gone. In fact, if there was any easy legal way out of this, the money would be long gone (aside from the fact that Russia says it has at least $288B belonging to the “unfriendlies” to confiscate as well, if I remember the number correctly). I am not even sure that the seizures that already took place is the end of the story. Once the war is over, I am sure there will be plenty of court battles over some such, compensations to pay, etc.

Fredled suggested that the “global south” understands why the assets will be seized eventually. But this is not the case. The fact that they are frozen is just fine, but confiscation a whole different animal.

Russia’s friends beg EU to leave frozen assets alone

When it comes to assets of the “oligarchs”, that is even more ridiculous. We in Canada were ahead of the pack on the subject (like many others, actually) and that didn’t get us anywhere. However, the government here seems to have been doing all they can to make the country as unattractive to foreign investment as possible. On the subject of Russian assets (dated article):


Remember that Antonov aircraft we seized and supposedly passed on to Ukraine? Well, I myself saw that very An-124 sitting at the quite corner of the Toronto airport back in February, the last time I was there (my airport bus drove right by it, on the other side of the fence, and I failed to get the phone out in time to snap a pic that I wanted - it’s a big aircraft!)


Alisher Usmanov, one of the richest Russians, while loosing the sanctions case against him in the EU a couple of months ago or so, won a few cases that included the accusations of him being tied with Putin, for instance. Here is one example:


I mean this has a fail written all over it. An article about the situation in the UK:


And I actually fully agree with the Russians and others here: this would be a straight up robbery. Moreover, it is dumb and counterproductive - this would be literally stealing money and assets that were frozen in order to achieve a specific goal (which clearly wasn’t achievable via these means to begin with).

As for the Russian sovereign funds, it isn’t much different, in my opinion. While it is all sounds nice and dandy, many definitely feel righteous, again, I do not believe there is a legal framework for it, nether internationally, nor domestically within the states that had frozen the funds. If, like we did in Canada, one needs to create a law for the very situation at hand, that would not be right, regardless of what anyone thinks is “the right thing to do”. Note that they didn’t do that even in the US, in spite of the Americans known to create laws that are convenient at any time to put a pressure on other states, and so on. Even they went the existing REPO way, which I also think is wrong. I also think that the amount does not matter, but the precedent does. “Do not want that to happen to you, don’t invade other countries” is a completely rubbish reasoning (whataboutism can shine here, so I will refrain). There is a great essay I read on the subject not long ago, but now cannot place it in my head where. I will provide a link if it comes back to me. But here is a not bad article as well, though behind the paywall:


Here is a direct quote, the last paragraph, that basically sums it up:

Helping Kyiv ward off Russian aggression defends national sovereignty and territorial integrity. But advocates of a rules-based order demolish their credibility if they respond to Moscow’s criminality with illegal measures of their own. Such conduct will accelerate the dissolution of the boundary between war and peace, alienate many states outside the sanctions coalition and dismantle a building block of the world they claim to defend.

I will try to find the essay I mentioned earlier. There was also an article in either Foreign Policy or Foreign Affairs on the subject a coiple of days ago that was also decent. Let me see if I can find it.

Edit: I should also add that confiscating the sovereign funds of Russia (or the biggest chink of them) will need to be cleared by Euroclear. I do not see them easily complying, but instead doing their best efforts to lobby against such moves by the EU.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
These two articles go into some of the ongoing legal strategies on confiscation
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Ukrainian lines north-west of Avdeevka are continuing a collapse. Russian forces are in Novobakhmutovka, the village appears to have fallen. Events are unfolding so quickly that suriyakmaps appears to not have time to make individual update posts, but their main map reflects it. Other sources are confirming. This significantly solidifies the Ocheretino salient, and makes it far less likely that Ukraine could counter attack to encircle Russian forces there. Note, Novobakhmutovka is firmly on the other side of the river, meaning it's possible to attack towards the western half of Berdychy from there without the complications of terrain. Coupled with Russian gains in Semenovka, it makes Ukrainian positions in the western side of Berdychy rather precarious.

 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Ukrainian lines north-west of Avdeevka are continuing a collapse.
It becames visible, thought not unexpected, that Ukrainians don;t have the firepower to stop Russian advances. They can only slow them as much as they can.
Acording to Ciril Budanov, Ukrainians expect a stronger Russian offensive only in May and June and expect their forces to retreat from now on.
However It would make sens for the Russians to capitalize on their curent advantage now and not to wait because the new Aid Package from the US will arrive very soon.
The first US delivery will arrive as soon as in one week. In fact, the weapons have been prepared in advance and were just waiting for the green light. While the bulk of US and European deliveries will start in one month.
It's also possible to see the first F16's in Ukraine in a few weeks (if they are not there arlready).

The new aid won't be enough to mount a second counter offensive or to retake lost territories. Nobody actually thinks that it will be possible because Russia has increased their military production and have enough men for new waves of attack and to defend their positions.

Feanor said:
We have some interesting statements from Lavrov. We've had a lot of speculation about Russia's negotiating position, and some pieces of it are emerging. He said that Russia won't pause combat operations during negotiations. This makes perfect sense and makes it impossible for Ukraine to use negotiations as a pre-text to get a break. He stated that negotiating with Zelensky is pointless for many reasons including because he banned himself from negotiating. Switzerland is unacceptable to Russia as a neutral country for negotiations because they have supported sanctions against Russia. Kharkov will play a role in the demilitarized zone Putin discussed. Russia is fully convinced they need to continue the special military operation.
It's hard to imagine that there will be negociations with such statements.
Russians are sure to win the war and are ready to fight it to the end. Not even knowing where the end is.

Feanor said:
An interesting phenomenon has emerged with Chinese internet users donating on Russian streams to get pictures and labels put on Russian shells being fired in the war.
If this is genuine and not paid propaganda, it would be interesting to know how many Chinese are pro-Russian or anti-West. IMO it's not wise for China to allow direct donations to the Russian military. If the amounts are negligeable it can be ok. But symbolically it's worrysome.

Feanor said:
Reportedly a permanent contingent of 60 US advisers are heading to Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if they're a priorty target for Russia.
Of course they will.
But more interesting is what's the real role of these advisers. IMO, they will come together with the ATACNS to check the coordinate to male sure they are not used on Russia.
It could be the first arrival of a larger contingent.

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KipPotapych said:
And I actually fully agree with the Russians and others here: this would be a straight up robbery. Moreover, it is dumb and counterproductive
My personal position, if I was the President of the World, is that the amount Russia owes Ukraine and eventually other countries, for damages and crimes should be decided by an international court.
Based on this, monies could be seized if Russia doesn't pay for the war damages defined by the decision of the court.
Of course this decision should be fair.
Then it won't be robbery. I think it would be the most acceptable solution for everyone.

I agree that siezing assets without any ceremony is not the right thing to do.
Problem is the temptation to take the money now.

What I mean by "the Global South understand" is that they know very well what happens in Ukraine, even if they disagree with the West and don't want to alienate Russia for various reasons.
______________________
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Of course they will.
But more interesting is what's the real role of these advisers. IMO, they will come together with the ATACNS to check the coordinate to male sure they are not used on Russia.
It could be the first arrival of a larger contingent.
Yes, it very much feels like a first step down a road.

My personal position, if I was the President of the World,
This is what people constantly miss. There is no president of the world. Not only is no literal person in charge of everything, there isn't even a theoretical ultimate authority. The UN Security Council only has power by virtue of the members of the UN signing the UN charter. It's an international organization whose power is delegated from sovereign states.
 
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