The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

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Verified Defense Pro
By that logic, wouldn't any proven Ukrainian strikes against the Zaporozhskaya NPP qualify as well? Note the language in your quote says "may". In other words, actual release of dangeours forces and severe losses among the civilian population are not needed to meet this definition. Obviously there's a difference between Russia's strike here, which in my assessment is intentional and aimed at actually doing it, and Ukraine hitting Russian troops inside the powerplant. However the quote also says "other military objectives".

It will be interesting to see if the international community reacts this way, and I suspect the reaction will depend on the actual damage this causes.
Yep it will be and that's why I posted it. I would argue that the attack on the dam is suspect, but the Russian missile attacks on power infrastructure well behind the lines in Ukraine is against the Conventions. WRT the attacks against the Zaporozhskaya NPP, whichever party is the culprit would be a suspect under the Convention as well. It's not my part of ship because I am not a lawyer, thank god.
 
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OPSSG

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As a general rule an attacking force in an offensive operation should have a minimum of a 3:1 advantage in men and material over the defending force.

The Russians knew that the Ukrainians were massing near Kherson but the didn't know the details and they didn't accept that it was a possible feint, so the Ukrainian deception worked and they mounted an attack in the east routing the Russian forces there.
1. Below my favourite YouTube channel explains the war in Ukraine. Col. (Dr.) Reisner explains the latest battles in a professional manner, using examples from the past and also looks at these battles in relation to terrain, force, time and information. The presenter is not only a senior military professional, he has a PhD to teach us about war in context.

2. I appreciate Col. (Dr.) Reisner’s honesty and professionalism used in this analysis on the areas of success and where the tactics used resulted in significant casualties.

3. According to Mykola Bielieskov writing in Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 31, for the Jamestown Foundation, the Balakliya-Kupyansk offensive consisted of two distinct phases:

One, penetration of the enemy’s tactical defense in depth; and​
Two, exploitation of penetration with a follow-on echelon.​

4. During the penetration phase (6-7 Sept 2022), Ukrainian forces managed to breach the Russian front line to the north and northeast of Balakliya—near Verbivka and Volokhiv Yar (Nv.ua, 7 Sept 2022) — through this hole in Russia’s defenses, an exploitation echelon of Ukrainian forces was directed toward the Shevchenkove-Kupyansk axis through the critical P07 roadway.

5. Russian defences for Chornobaivka Airport are located along the HWY M14 from Kyselivka to Chornobaivka.
(a) There is a 3 line in-depth defence starting with a small forward position, backed by a larger extended trench work and finally the large and heavily defended airport compound. The defensive works are concentrated on NE side of the complex mainly along the M-14 highway. There are at least 16 MBT's and BMP's are dug in behind an earth wall, around this area are trenched coverd with metal plates at certain parts to provide cover against shrapnel.​
(b) Another part of the airport contains what is most likely an EW complex, it consists of 12 directional antenna's with a vehicle in the middle — located in the area where before the war, the comms array for the airport was located.​
(c) Located SE of the airport on the entry way from the M14,the VDV hq is located. This heavily fortfied complex was hit by a probable HIMARS attack. In the latest update, it is suspected that up 12 Russian officers and 1 general are reported to have been killed in a Ukrainian strike that targeted a strategic command post at Chornobaivka Airport near occupied Kherson.​
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog.

Russian strikes on allegedly a Ukrainian recon team between Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog.


Russian 33rd Don Cossack Rgt, 20th MRD, striking targets in southern Ukraine.


The same 33rd Rgt taking POWs.


Knocked out BMP-1s and apparently an abandoned Kipri MRAP, Kherson region.


Satellite images of the bridge in Novaya Kahovka. It appears to be done for.


Ukrainian YPR-765, Mastiff MRAPs, and BMPs rolling around, Kherson region.


Battle damage from Ukrainian strikes in Novaya Kahovka.


Allegedly Don Cossack volunteers captured two T-64BVs from Ukrainian forces.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strikes landing in Dnepropetrovsk.


Russian air defenses firing over Berdyansk. Possibly a Ukrainian UAV.


A Ukrainian loitering munition allegedly intercepted and landed by EW, Zaporozhskaya NPP.


A loitering munition on the roof of the city administration building, Energodar.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.


Russian strikes landing in Chuguev.


The Izyum Salient.

Russian artillery strikes on Ukrainian forces, part of the recent offensive.


Ukrainian raiding party behind Russian lines allegedly hitting a Russian rear-end position.


Ukrainian forces in action inside Balakleya.


A Russian Su-25 took a MANPADS hit and went down, reportedly the pilot was evacuated successfully.


Russian 2S3 fires at the recent offensive.


Possibly a Russian T-90M getting taken out in the recent offensive.


Ukrainian forces recapture a BTR-4E that was captured by Russian forces.


Battle damage in Kupyansk.


Ukrainian forces raising the Ukrainian flag over Balakleya.


Ukrainian mech-infantry north of Balakleya.


Ukrainian infantry in Verbovka.


Ukrainian M-113s near Shevchenko.


Ukrainian PzH-2000 taking part in the recent offensive.


Ukrainian T-72M1s near Balakleya.


Kipri MRAP and M-270 MLRS near Balakleya.


Krab howitzers taking part in the recent offensive.


Reportedly T-64BM2s have been sighted as part of the Kharkov offensive.


Russian forces heading towards the front line in the former Izyum salient.


LDNR Front.

Shelling of Donetsk continues. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian soldiers getting ambushed near Bakhmut, allegedly by Wagner fighters.


Allegedly Ukrainian BMPs destroyed near Seversk.


Ukrainian M113 destroyed apparently near the Donetsk airport.


Russian strike on a mental ward in Kramatorsk that was allegedly being used as a Ukrainian staging area.


Russian strike against an alleged Ukrainian staging area, Slavyansk.


Battle damage from shelling in Panteleymonovka, near Gorlovka.


Battle damage from Shelling in Gorlovka.


Battle damage from Shelling in Yasinovataya.


DNR 100th Bde firing on Krasnogorovka.


DNr 100th Bde firing on Pervomayskoe.


DNR troops of interior Kaskad Btln indirect-firing a BMP-1 near Ugledar.


Russian/rebel forces allegedly advanving on Pervomayskoe. Warning footage of corpses.


Allegedly overrun Ukrainian positions near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


DNR 3rd Bde allegedly gained ground near Gorlovka.


Sounds of fighting can be heard in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Somali btln shows off a captured PK-14 landmine in Peski.


Fresh LNR soldiers getting trained. These are allegedly volunteers, and they look far better equipped then the mobilized "iron helmets" we've seen before.


Russia.

Russian Iskander launches towards Kharkov.


Another unit (the 6th) of Cossack volunteers heads off to Ukraine.


Misc.

Apparently two Ukrainian IFVs getting taken out by Krasnopol' strikes.


Confirmation of Ukrainian troops using Excalibur shells.


Ukraine's 26th Arty Bde and 120th Recon Btln receive new UAVs, the Poseidon H10 and Poseidon H6.


Up-armored BMP-2, possibly LDNR.


A Russian T-72B3 with an even bigger roof cage.


In another indirect confirmation of Iranian UAV deliveries, the US is sanctioning Iranian companies for UAV deliveries to Russia.


NATO/EU.

Reportedly Lithuania is handing over M-101 howitzers to Ukraine.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 3: Things that make you go, hmmm

1. A video recently surfaced showing Chinese mortar bombs in Ukraine, claiming they were supplied to the Russian army from China and then captured by Ukrainian forces but this is absolutely not true.
(a) It is more likely that these mortar bombs came to Ukraine from Albania, which has a long history of military cooperation with China and uses large quantities of Chinese weapons. In March 2022, Albania announced military aid but never unveiled precisely what was donated.​
(b) In 206 days of Putin’s ‘Special Military Operation’, the Russian Army has had 54,250 troops killed in combat. These losses are 3 times the number killed in the 10 year Soviet Afghan War (~14,453). Gen. David Petraeus predicts that Russia’s defeat in Kharkiv — Izyum will result in a ‘long, painful, terrible retreat’. He tells CNN’s Jim Sciutto that Ukraine’s offensive puts the Russian Army in a “disastrous situation”. Since the "special military operation" is not a war, the Russian soldiers are still operating under peacetime rules, meaning that if they want to refuse, there's nothing that can stop them.​
(c) Prigozhin through his Wagner PMC really feels he is a leader in this war in Ukraine — a title he snatched from Kadyrov (whose tick-tok army was there to help him promote himself). Likewise, Kadyrov and his Chechen Rosgvardiya, are not part of any Russian army group and act as they wish — which is why they played a crucial role in the defeat at Balakliia. The Rosgvardiya played a decisive role because the Chechen clowns can’t fight (but are more proficient in torturing people in occupied territories). Correctly understood, the Chechen Rosgvardiya are being sent to Ukraine to perform a ‘special’ role in this war. Their acts during occupation earn them the title of war criminals.​
2. Below, alleged footage from Kherson where alleged Ukrainian sabotage group was confronted in a firefight at a crossroad towards the railway station — I see no tactical value in sending Ukrainian SF into a occupied city — which is why I suspect not a SF sabotage group.
(a) Arestovych said "Why need sabotage groups when we have HIMARS?" Don’t know what is going on inside Russian occupied Kherson, at a crossroad towards railway station at 46.6507678, 32.6080883​
(b) As a recent video shows, Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC can even freely recruit in prisons. The 3,000 "Wagnerites" are not subordinated to the general Russian army structure, have their own tanks, aviation support and can fight autonomously. At the same time, Wagner is the most professional part of the entire Russian grouping in Ukraine — thankfully, their forces are being wasted in tactically meaningless “offensive action” near Bakhmut. Correctly understood, Wagnerites, due to their proficiency in torturing people in occupied territories and Ukrainian POWs, are also war criminals.​

3. The way the vehicles are firing on an upward trajectory, it looks as if the Russians are firing at buildings to the east of that street. The Ukrainian forces have not advanced this far. The Russian occupation forces in Ukraine are not under a single command. Instead, there are several factions competing for power, with their own commanders. Some have heavy weapons, others do not.

Q: Is this the start of a more serious insurgency against Russian troops in occupied areas of Ukraine?​
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 3: Things that make you go, hmmm

4. Russian collaborators in occupied areas of Ukraine are starting to find their cars and other possessions start to catch fire or blow up. In temporarily occupied Berdyansk, the deputy "head" of the city Oleg Boyko and his wife Lyudmila, who were preparing for the Russian planned fake referendum, were killed. The only job more dangerous than being a Russian oil boss is being a LNR official, being a DNR official or being a Russian-installed official in Ukraine's Kherson region, who are all seen as collaborators.
(a) In a single day at least 5 Russian-installed officials have been killed on occupied Ukrainian territory. Two in Luhansk, one in Kherson, & two more in Berdyansk. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility but this is sure to undermine Russian morale just as Kyiv presses its offensive.​
(b) Ukraine says a blast that killed the Russian-appointed prosecutor general in Luhansk and his deputy "should be considered as showdowns of local organized criminal groups that could not share looted property before a large-scale escape." If Ukraine is responsible for these attacks, it would demonstrate the growing reach of its intelligence deep inside Russian-held territory and could further demoralize Russian forces.​

5. Russia continues to separate thousands of Ukrainian children from their families, who are then deported to settlement camps in Russia.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

Russian fires against Ukrainian forces allegedly advancing on Aleksandrovka.


Wounded Georgian fighters apparently being evacuated, allegedly near Nikolaev.


Russian strike on Voznesensk, Nikolaev region. The target was allegedly munition storage.


Russian strikes landing in Nikolaev.


A ship sank from a recent Russian strike, Nikolaev.


Apparently Ukrainian M113 and BMP destroyed in Kherson region.


Russian VDV on the front line between Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

There are reports of a Russian advance north-east of Gulyaypole, in the western part of Donetsk region. Map is Russian-sourced and so far we're talking about 1-2 villages taken.


Russian strikes landing in Dnepropetrovsk and Nikopol'.


Battle damage from Russian strikes in Dnepropetrovsk. Note the detsroyed vehicle in the first link, I can't quite make out what it is, M113 maybe?


Kharkov-Sumy.


Abandoned/knocked out Russian vehicles near Kupyansk.


Russian Mi-24Ps and Mi-8AMTSh in Kharkov region, unclear if the Izyum Salient area or not.


Russian forces in eastern Kupyansk.


Izyum Salient.

Russian MLRS fires in the former Izyum salient.


Russian Ka-52 lobbing rockets, former Izyum salient.


Reportedly Ukrainian tanks firing out of the forest line near Izyum, one gets hit.


Ukrainian BTR-4 destroyed near Izyum. Based on the white cross, it appears to be part of the recent offensive.


Allegedly foreign fighters crossing the river at night as part of the recent offensive in the Izyum-Balakleya area.


There are reports of Ukrainian BTR-4MV being spotted as part of the recent offensive.


Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAPs and civilian vans as part of a troop column.


The Australian Bushmaster has also been spotted.


Russian troops withdrawing from the Izyum salient.


LDNR Front.

Shelling of Donetsk continues. A market got hit. Warning footage of corpses.


A Ukrainian counter-attack near Peski was reportedly foiled. Allegedly DNR 11th Rgt and 100th Bde were involved as well as Ukraine's 56th Bde. Apparently Ukraine left behind two MBTs, one destroyed, one knocked out, and allegedly two BMPs. The knocked out MBT is a scarce T-72AMT.


Artillery firing hitting an allegedly Ukrainian BMP near Donestk.


Apparently a Ukrainian pickup truck getting hit near Pervomayskoe.


Apparently a Ukrainian tank getting hit by DNR 100th Bde.


Russian forces allegedly shot this down near Ugledar. I can't tell what it is, though it's claimed as a UAV.


Starobel'sk, LNR area, air defenses firing.


Russian strikes in Kramatorsk.


Battle damage from Russian strikes, Kramatorsk.


Battle damage from Russian strikes, Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk.


Chechen fighters near Ugledar, with an allegedly captured BMP-1. Note their equipment. This is not tik-tok btln, rather more typical irregulars.


LNR reservists receiving kit.


Russia.

In Kursk region someone opened fire on Russian National Guard. Context unclear, and they have not been caught.


Logachevka border crossing, Russia. A refugee camp has been set up but no masses of refugees can be seen.


Misc.

Russia firing incendiary munitions at Ukrainian forces. Location and context unclear.


Russian forces commenting on a Ukrainian BMP blowing up, it's ammo cooking off. This is allegedly a failed attack. Location unclear.


Russian Msta-B fires, location and context unclear.


A captured armored Humvee, location and context unclear. I think we've seen this one before.


NATO/EU.

Ukraine has officially received THeMIS unmanned platforms from Estonia.


More reports that France will provide TRF1 howitzers to Ukraine.


Spain is reportedly launching their own training program for the Ukrainian military. The first 600 service members have already arrived.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog.

Russian strikes against Ukrainian troops, Kherson region.


Strikes on the Antonov bridge continue.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strikes landing in Zaporozhye.

.https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_3010596

Russian strike on a powerplant in Dnepropetrovsk.


Ukrainian M-113s (YPR-765s) and T-72M1s in Zaporozhye area.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.

.https://t.me/boris_rozhin/63636

TES-5, a powerplant hit by Russian in recent strikes.


Lights are out again in the Kharkov subway.


Battle damage from strikes in Kharkov.


Izyum Salient.

Ukrainian T-72M destroyed in the former Izyum salient.


Reportedly Ukraine took 20-30 MBTs and 30-40 BMPs intact in the recent offensive. This presumably does not include other captured vehicles and equipment.


Captured Russian T-72B3s, presumably from the recent offensive.


Battle damage, Udy village, after the recent Russian withdrawal.


Ukrainian FV-103s as part of the recent offensive.


A rare Saurer 2DM truck in Ukraine, part of the recent offensive.


LDNR Front.

Shellings of Donetsk continue. Warning footage of corpses.


Russian Wagner fighters using a mortar.


Russian night-time MLRS fires towards Ugledar.


Russian strikes on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian strike on Konstantinovka.


Russian strikes on Krasnogorovka area. Allegedly the target is Ukrainian reinforcements moving to the front.


Russian strikes hitting Ukrainian infantry near Mar'inka.


Avdeevka got hit too.


Battle damage from Russian strikes in Kramatorsk.


Fighting on the outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Allegedly overrun Ukrainian positions near Seversk.


Footage of Russian forces inside Kodema. The village was finally cleared after ~2 weeks of heavy fighting.


Russian/rebel forces continue to hold Krasniy Liman.


Russian BARS reservists near Ugledar.


Russia.

Russian Kalibr launches towards Ukraine.


Tetkino, Kursk region, getting hit again.


Russia is considering forcibly evacuating civilians from Zhuravlevk and Nehoteevka, Belgorod region, near the Ukrainian border.


Russian air defenses firing, Belgorod region.


In Chechnya a new regiment and 3 separate btlns have been formed, presumably for the war effort. For vehicles we see 32 BTR-82As, a bunch of pickup trucks, and other vehicles that I can't make out. A total of 3180 new service members.


Misc.

Ukrainian BMP destroyed, allegedly Donbass. Location, context, and date unclear.


Assorted Forpost-RU footage. This is a domesticated Searcher-MK2 with strike capabilities.


Russian TOS-1 operations, location and context unclear.


East MD BM-27s in Ukraine, location and context unclear.


Russian MVD SOBR unit in Ukraine, assorted footage.


A Ukrainian military social media account claims that 22/27 Ukrainian service members died in an assault. Russian sources are claiming the numbers are indicative, but I suspect that even if true this is an outlier.


Foreign fighters in the Ukrainian military. Location and context unclear.


Krab howitzer in Ukraine, location and context unclear.


NATO/EU.

There are reports that US personnel were involved in planning the recent counter-offensive.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 3 of 3: Things that make you go, hmmm

6. Izyum, Bucha, Borodyanka, Mariupol embody just what could have happened to all Ukrainian civilians if the Ukrainian Army had not stopped the Russian invasion at Kyiv and began a counter offensive to liberate territory previously held by the Russian invaders. We should remember that 17 Sep 2022 is the 83rd anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland. The 2nd World War began with a Nazi-Soviet alliance signed under Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. It is illegal to say that it was Russia that started the 2nd World War.

(a) This resulted in the Katyń massacre: 20 000 Polish military officer prisoners were summarily executed in April & May 1940. At least one-third of the 320 000 Polish prisoners of war captured by the Red Army in 1939 were murdered. From 1939 to 1941, nearly 1.5 million persons were deported from the Soviet-controlled areas of former eastern Poland deep into the Soviet Union. In the West, where people are free to reflect upon this Soviet/Russian Army pattern of war crimes against POWs and this pattern of repression, plus forced exodus of conquered peoples, it would not be a bad idea to do so.​

(b) As a result of the Soviet occupation during the 2nd World War, Estonia permanently lost at least 200 000 people or 20% of its population to repression, exodus and war. The soviet occupation of Latvia during the 2nd World War: ~35 000 Latvians were taken from their homes, loaded onto freight trains and taken to Siberia. In the West, where people are free to reflect upon this pattern of repression, plus forced exodus of conquered peoples and war, it would not be a bad idea to do so.​

7. If anyone has reflected upon this Soviet/Russian Army pattern of war crimes against POWs plus forced exodus of conquered peoples, you would know that negotiating with the Russian at this time to prevent the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is the shortest path to the 3rd World War as it would embolden Putin and Xi, to take a hardline stance with their immediate neighbours.

8. The incident in Kherson on Saturday evening was not connected with the penetration of Ukrainian saboteurs, instead it was staged by a "group of idiots." Meanwhile there is a 101-7 at UNGA vote versus the Russian diplomatic effort to block President Zelenskyy video address to the General Assembly and Putin even suffered humiliation at the hands of his “friends” in Samarkand.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
At least one-third of the 320 000 Polish prisoners of war captured by the Red Army in 1939 were murdered.
Of those who survived quite a few were allowed to leave to join the Free Polish Army but unfortunately some were arbitrarily forced to stay. There were long lines of Poles getting on ships to bring them to the Middle East. NKIVD troops would comb the lines and decided who could go and who had to stay.

Let's also spare some thought for the Cossacks were fought for the Germans; not because they were committed National Socialists but because they were anti communists who had suffered under the Soviets; the Brits [and the Swedes] forcibly handed them back and many committed suicide rather than be sent back. At Yalta the Allies agreed to hand back any Soviet citizens they had.

The 2nd World War began with a Nazi-Soviet alliance signed under Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.
Unfortunately for the Poles; there was a written clause in the guarantee provided by Britain and France which stipulated that support would only be provided in response to German aggression. British and French propaganda went full blast about the German invasion but were silent when the Soviets invaded some two weeks later. In the areas the Soviets controlled the NKVD was extremely busy rounding up Polish they deemed a threat.

The soviet occupation of Latvia during the 2nd World War: ~35 000 Latvians were taken from their homes, loaded onto freight trains and taken to Siberia.
The Tartars, Kalmuks, Chechens and other minorities were also shipped to Central Asia and Siberia in cattle trains and dumped in the middle of nowhere; the result of Stalin's paranoia.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: The Russian Army’s will to fight, seems gone

1. Crossing the Oskil River is a milestone in Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv. The river flows south into the Siversky Donets, which snakes through the Donbas, the main focus of Russia’s invasion.

2. The Russian Army is done, if they can’t conduct a counter attack to the Ukrainian river crossing. I find it hard to believe that the Russians after a long retreat can’t even hold the line at a natural barrier — at the Oskil River.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Crossing the Oskil River is a milestone in Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv. The river flows south into the Siversky Donets, which snakes through the Donbas, the main focus of Russia’s invasion.

2. The Russian Army is done, if they can’t conduct a counter attack to the Ukrainian river crossing. I find it hard to believe that the Russians after a long retreat can’t even hold the line at a natural barrier — at the Oskil River.
Were they able to counter the tiny salient across the Ingulets at Sukhoi Stavok?
 
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OPSSG

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Staff member
Were they able to counter the tiny salient across the Ingulets at Sukhoi Stavok?
From a quick look it seems that pro-Russian sources are mostly commenting on this fight and there are claims that Russian tactical aviation is in play against Ukrainian forces — hard to tell at this time, grateful if you could share more.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
2. The Russian Army is done, if they can’t conduct a counter attack to the Ukrainian river crossing. I find it hard to believe that the Russians after a long retreat can’t even hold the line at a natural barrier — at the Oskil River.
Just playing devils advocate but is this confirmed and accurate? I know I had heard about SF's from the AFU crossing the oskil a few days ago but bugger me from a couple maybe bridgeheads to this boggles the mind and I'm pro Ukrainian and shocked by this.

If it is accurate the only thing that will save the Russian line will be winter if they are lucky. Ukraine just appears to have local superiority and using it to maximum effect.
 
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Feanor

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Staff member
From a quick look it seems that pro-Russian sources are mostly commenting on this fight and there are claims that Russian tactical aviation is in play against Ukrainian forces — hard to tell at this time, grateful if you could share more.
There's alleged footage of the crossing. I just haven't gotten to it yet. I'll share. It appears there's a pontoon crossing, and there's evidence of Ukrainian vehicles knocked out and destroyed around the crossing, suggesting that Russia is doing something to contest it. None the less, the fact that this salient remains active after this long is a bad sign for Russian forces.

Just playing devils advocate but is this confirmed and accurate? I know I had heard about SF's from the AFU crossing the oskil a few days ago but bugger me from a couple maybe bridgeheads to this boggles the mind and I'm pro Ukrainian and shocked by this.

If it is accurate the only thing that will save the Russian line will be winter if they are lucky. Ukraine just appears to have local superiority and using it to maximum effect.
Russian sources are disagreeing with this and even suggesting Russian troops are still in eastern Kupyansk. It's hard to be sure. But Russia is in bad shape on the Kharkov front.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 2 of 2: The Russian Army’s will to fight, seems gone

3. Ukrainian forces are continuing limited and localized offensive operations across the Oskil River and along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line, while Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut. I believe the scale of forces across the river indicates it is no longer just SF at the beachheads at the Oskil River but full Ukrainian ABGs.

Just playing devils advocate but is this confirmed and accurate? I know I had heard about SF's from the AFU crossing the oskil a few days ago but bugger me from a couple maybe bridgeheads to this boggles the mind and I'm pro Ukrainian and shocked by this.
4. I'm pro-Ukrainian and even I find it hard to believe that Russians can’t deny the Ukrainian breach heads at the Oskil River.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Post 1 of 2: The Russian Army’s will to fight, seems gone

1. Crossing the Oskil River is a milestone in Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv. The river flows south into the Siversky Donets, which snakes through the Donbas, the main focus of Russia’s invasion.

2. The Russian Army is done, if they can’t conduct a counter attack to the Ukrainian river crossing. I find it hard to believe that the Russians after a long retreat can’t even hold the line at a natural barrier — at the Oskil River.
Some thoughts on this subject. I don't think the issue is Russia's will to fight. I think the issue is that Russia just doesn't have the troops. In Balakleya Russia had SOBR units holding a strategic town. Right now in Liman Russian BARS and LNR reservists are desperately holding the town from repeated Ukrainian assaults. Where are line Russian Army units? In the recent offensive smaller Ukrainian groups simply passed right through the Russian front line, and then proceeded to attack rear elements, causing a rapid withdrawal. If Russia literally doesn't have the infantry to hold the line, river or no river, Ukraine can get across. Especially if Russian recon is failing. In my opinion this is the real issue. Despite its vast size, the Russian Army expends most of its contract soldiers on jobs that require skill and training. Which leaves a lot of riflemen as conscripts. And Russia remains unwilling to commit them to the fight. Which means that not only is Russia short on total troops, but also doesn't have replacement units to rotate units with.

You mentioned earlier Russian counter-battery fires. I don't think that this is necessarily the issue. Russia has a solid advantage in artillery fires. However poor recon, and lack of infantry to hold the front line means that bringing this advantage to bear is hard. When Russian recon identifies Ukrainian offensive movements, they get pounded and are unsuccessful. When Ukraine can avoid this, Russia is having a hard time fighting the front line fight.


EDIT: Case in point. Russia has gone from volunteer and composite btlns to sending composite companies to the front line. And remember Russian companies are far smaller then their western counter-parts, frequently 70-100 strong.

 
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STURM

Well-Known Member

Following reports which mentioned technical issues faced by the Russians with their newly delivered Iranian UASs; there are now reports from the Ukrainians of successful strikes being carried out.

The question I would ask is whether Iran is actually in a position to supply Russia with UASs in decent numbers at short notice. Another question that comes to mind is how resistant Iran UASs are against various soft kill means the Ukranians may be able to employ.

Interesting discussion here on Russian logistics; including the traditional reliance on conscripts to do much of the heavy work and the lack of pallets, forklifts and ISO containers. The speaker then goes on to talk about the PLA and its industrialised logistics system which is a reflection of China's economy: it's massive ports; IT infrastructure and distribution network.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog.

Russian strikes on Nikolaev.


Russia hitting Ukrainian positions on the Nikolaev-Kherson axis.


Russian copter dropping explosives on a Ukrainian buggy. a series of this footage has been published under the title "Ghost of Kherson", likely an ironic name.


Apparently a Ukrainian BMP-1 getting hit while moving rapidly, possibly a Russian PGM.


Allegedly a Ukrainian destroyed BMP in Vysokopol'ye. Note the village is now under Ukrainian control, and Ukrainian forces are attempting to push into neighboring Ol'gino.


A destroyed, apparently Ukrainian, 2S1 that some sources have misidentified as the 2S34 Hosta Ukraine captured earlier.


Apparently captured and destroyed Ukrainian vehicles somewhere on the front between Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog. We can see a BRDM-2, a BTR-70 destroyed, and some destroyed trucks. Context unclear.


Battle damage from Russian strikes, Nikolaev.


2 videos of the Ukrainian crossing across the Ingulets. Presumably this is one of the ones that leads into the Sukhoi Stavok salient.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian S-300PT firing, Dnepropetrovsk.


A large fire in Zaporozhye region, cause unclear though the likely culprit is of course a Russian strike.


Ukrainian T-72M1s and YPR-765s, Zaporozhye. There are rumors of an upcoming Ukrainian offensive there.


Kharkov-Sumy.

A destroyed Ukrainian jeep, Sumy area. It was apparently run off the road by Russian UAV-dropped munitions, and hit a land mine.


Russian strikes, Kharkov.


Battle damage to TES-5, Kharkov.


A Ukrainian field hospital, Kharkov region.


The Oskol Front.

Allegedly Russian strikes on a Ukrainian crossing near Kupyansk. Note, I can't make out what exactly is getting hit.


Apparently a Ukrainian T-72B knocked out near Brazhkovka, part of the recent offensive.


Ukrainian BTR-4 burning, we've seen it burned out already. This is near Volkhov Yar.


Ukrainian infantry in Svyatogorsk. Whatever the situation in Kupyansk, Ukraine can clearly cross the river.


A Ukrainian Krab column participating in the new offensive.


Russian Mi-26s moving reinforcements.


LDNR Front.

Kaskad btln taking out a Ukrainian Krab howitzer and Buk SAM. I think we've seen this clip recently, but I might be having deja vu.


Heavy Russian fires on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian/rebel artillery firing on Ugledar.


Allegedly Ukrainian forces getting hit near Ugledar.


Fighting in Belogorovka, where the Ukrainian counter-offensive is pushing east-ward from Seversk.


Russian strikes near Belogorovka.


Explosions in Nikolaevka, DNR area.


In Lisichansk reportedly a humanitarian aid point was hit, killing civilians.


Battle damage in Pereval'sk, presumably a Ukrainian strike.


Battle damage in Gorlovka.


Allegedly destroyed Ukrainian vehicles near Nikolaevka-2.


We have reports of Wagner fighters taking Nikolaevka-2 south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and preparing for an offensive against Zaytsevo.


Russia.


S-300/400 fires against a Ukrainian inbound, Rostov region.


Russian air defenses firing, Belgorod region.


In Crimea a small commercial UAV was crashed into Russian missile storage.


Krasniy Hutor, Belgorod region, got hit.


Misc.

Russian 2S4 fires, location and context unclear.


Russian Orlan operations by an EW unit in support of Russian strikes. It's interesting that EW and recon are merged here in function.


Destroyed MBT, allegedly Ukrainian. Location and context unclear.


A destroyed Husky TSV and BMP, both apparently Ukrainian. This is probably Kherson, but it's hard to be sure.


A destroyed Ukrainian armored car (another Husky TSV?) location and context unclear.


A destroyed Ukrainian T-72M1, location and context unclear.


A captured Ukrainian T-64BV somewhere in the south, by Russian VDV. This is also likely Kherson region but it's hard to confirm.


We have confirmation of Ukraine using MiG-29s as dive bombers.


The M984A4 HETT has been spotted in Ukraine.


Russian forces appear to be using Qods Yasir UAVs from Iran.


Another look at the new "Russian" Geran-2 loitering munition that appears to be Iranian in origin.


An MT-LB with a roof cage. While there's no Z markings, it's probably Russian.


NATO/EU.

Greece has reportedly declined to provide S-300s to Ukraine.


There are reports that Rheinmetall has overhauled 16 Marders for Ukraine but is waiting on permission to supply them.

 
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