The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[kato]

|"Pro-Russische separatisten in de regio Loegansk beweren twee plaatsjes in de regio te hebben veroverd. Het gaat om Stanytsia Loeganska en Sjtsjastja. "|
Seperatists claim that they have conquered two cities in Lugansk.

Cities is a bit of a wrong term due to its implications. The Dutch text says "places" as in locations. They're two suburban towns on the ukrainian-controlled side of the Seversky Donets river which was previously the ceasefire line.

 

[STURM]

No lack of DNR, LNR thugs to help them with the dirty work IMO.

Yes but If indeed regime change is what they seek the Russians will need Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians, as opposed to separatist Russian speaking Ukrainians Uikainian nationals of Russian ethnicity. To head and firm the puppet government the Russians would need willing/complaint Ukranians. Unless of course the Russians have pro Russian Ukrainian exiles they can put in place.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Official Releases.

Russian claims 1) Ukrainian border guard offered no resistance 2) Ukrainian air defense is suppressed 3) Ukrainian air base infrastructure is shut down.

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Territorial Shifts.

There are reports that the town of Schastye is being assaulted by rebel forces. There is also information that Mariupol' has fallen.

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Kharkov appears to have fallen. 1st link - Kharkov, Russian MBTs. 2nd link -Z troops in Kharkov.

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Unknown Fires.

An MLRS firing, location and affiliation unknown.

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Footage of what appears to be artillery outside of Kharkov.

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Allegedly Ukrainian BMPs burning.

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Russian schools and kindergartens near Ukraine are closed, there are reports of sporadic artillery impacts.

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Allegedly Russian air defense firing at Ukrainina Bayraktar TB-2s.

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Russian Long Range Strikes.

A Ukrainian munitions dump gets hit.

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A Russian cruise missile landing in Ivano-Frankovsk region.

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Footage of Russian strikes in Ivano-Frankovsk region.

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A fragment of a Kh-31P missile in Kiev.

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Footage of damage from Russian long range strikes in Brovary and Odessa.

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In Chuguev, the 203rd air force training center has been hit.

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Kul'bakino airfield in Nikolaev region, after strikes, where the Bayraktar TB-2s are based. It was reportedly hit by Kalibr strikes.

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Footage of a Ukrainian unit in Odessa after getting hit. Allegedly 6 KIA.

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MLRS impacts in Kharkov.

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Fragments of MLRS munitions in Kharkov.

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The Novaya-Kahovskaya air defense node has been hit by Russian strikes.

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Poltava air base has been hit. Reportedly Su-25s were used.

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Chernkobaevka, Kherson region, where Ukrainian Mi-24s were based was hit.

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Location unknown, Russian cruise missiles flying over Ukraine.

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Impacts in Sumy, Svatovo, and Dnepropetrovsk.

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Russian MLRS firing.

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Russian MLRS firing out of Bryansk region.

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Fires landing in Mariupol'.

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Strikes landing in Kharkov.

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Strikes landing in Dnepropetrovsk.

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Ochakov port has been hit.

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Russian troop sightings.

Russian troops entering Ukraine. Border checkpoint unknown.

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Russian Tors, Genichensk, Kherson region. Marked with Zs.

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Ka-52 over Lugansk.

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There are reports of Russian troops landing in the Azov sea, possibly to cut off Mariupol' or seize Berdyansk.

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A border checkpoint in Kharkov region where Russian troops entered.

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Russian troops entering Ukraine, location unknown.

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Ukrainian Troop Sightings.

Novokahvoskaya air defense unit is retreating east across the river, surviving assets apparently include a GAZ-66 truck, a radar, and two TELs.

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A Ukrainian Su-27 allegedly fled to Romania.

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Ukrainian light armor on the streets of Mariupol'.

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A Ukrainian Su-25 over Dnepropetrovsk.

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Misc.

The rebels (LNR) report two Ukrainian Su-24s downed near Smeloe and Stepovoye. There are reports of a Russian Su-24 shot down but Russian sources deny this.

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A map of missile ranges from Russian units, over Ukraine.

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There are reports that Belarus is involved in the operation.

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Combat alarm has been raised in Ochakovo, a Ukrainian military facility in Nikolaev region.

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Reportedly there are two Turkish A-400s in Borispol' airport to evacuate Ukrainian leadership to Turkey. There were earlier reports of Russian SoF/SpN in that airport.

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A Ukrainian soldier reporting that his unit was hit by a Grad strike, but with no casualties.

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Combat footage from the rebels.

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Aksyonov, head of Russian Crimea, has ordered to prepare for the north-Crimean canal to take water from Kherson region.

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A giant traffic jam exiting Kiev. Westward of course.

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[Feanor]

Not enough to police the whole country. The entire population of those areas is just 2 million - remove all the women, children, middle-aged, old people, critical workers, etc and what are you left with?

Yes, there are Russian-speaking Ukrainians in other areas but I doubt very much they actually want a Russian puppet instead of free and fair elections to the extent they'd gleefully join a fascist paramilitary force to smash the heads of their neighbours.

The population of the rebel held area is estimated at 3.5 million. Not that this is enough to police all of Ukraine.

Cities is a bit of a wrong term due to its implications. The Dutch text says "places" as in locations. They're two suburban towns on the ukrainian-controlled side of the Seversky Donets river which was previously the ceasefire line.

Villages or small towns are probably the accurate terms. These are very small municipalities, close to the previous demarcation line. Not major gains on their part. The taking of Kharkov and Mariupol' are much more significant.

 

[Steinmetz]

If indeed the plan is to occupy the whole or most of the Ukraine what I don't understand is how do the Russians think they can in the long run control such a large and unfriendly population? Unless the plan is not stay for an extended period but to withdraw after certain objectives have been met.

We'll see, I don't think they'll have to deal with a hostile population. They're seemingly complacent so far, or fleeing west. Already seeing evidence of that in areas like Kharkiv, where Russians are apparently manning the roads in and out of the city. Regular cars are just driving past. Now, there is footage of Ukrainian casualties that I certainly won't repost, rather graphic. I think you'll Russian media clamping down and not show such reports. It'll all be a battle of might and perception.

 

[Feanor]

We'll see, I don't think they'll have to deal with a hostile population. They're seemingly complacent so far, or fleeing west. Already seeing evidence of that in areas like Kharkiv, where Russians are apparently manning the roads in and out of the city. Regular cars are just driving past. Now, there is footage of Ukrainian casualties that I certainly won't repost, rather graphic. I think you'll Russian media clamping down and not show such reports. It'll all be a battle of might and perception.

We won't be able to see this until weeks/months down the line. Local resistance may turn out to be a non-factor. It may also turn out to be a second Afghanistan. This remains to be seen. Obviously what political settlement Russian opts for will also determine this. If Russian troops delivery strong blows but withdraw to the LNDR administrative boundries, after crippling the Ukainian armed forces that's one thing. If Russia goes for full on regime change and installation of a puppet state in Ukraine, that's another situation altogether.

 

[Steinmetz]

Streets of Kiev, rather calm. Seems they did go to great lengths to avoid civilian casualties thus far.

There is a lack of evidence of any VDV para-landing, or amphibious landing, or special operation at Kiev International Airport. However, there were reports of gunfire at the airport, so who knows what happened.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496770123041959941

 

[the concerned]

Am I reading this wrong. First Putin recognised the independence of the 2 breakaway regions then in a televised speech he claims Ukraine was created by Russia. So these 2 regions have been played because they will never be independent.

 

[KiwiRob]

For a country who has been under threat of invasion for quite some time the Ukrainians don't appear to have made many preparations for their defense.

 

[Unric]

I think the plan was to be independent from the current (old?) Ukraine. The "new russified" Ukrane will probably be more palatable (assuming everything goes Putin's way).

Am I reading this wrong. First Putin recognised the independence of the 2 breakaway regions then in a televised speech he claims Ukraine was created by Russia. So these 2 regions have been played because they will never be independent.

 

[STURM]

So these 2 regions have been played because they will never be independent.

Quite possibly this is something they are willing to live with. For them the main thing is that they are now ''independent '' from the Ukraine and are recognised as such by their main and only benefactor; Russia.

 

[STURM]

For a country who has been under threat of invasion for quite some time the Ukrainians don't appear to have made many preparations for their defense.

I'm sure they did but it may not be apparent from where we're sitting and what we're shown; at least not yet. Things got somewhat more complicated for them once Russian troops entered Belarus; as in the past they were concerned mostly about a Russian advance from the Crimea and the east and could plan accordingly with whatever resources they had.

This is a make or break moment for Putin. If he achieves his military objectives in a timely manner and with minimal casualties; he gets to look good but if things start to go wrong; in the long run he could come under great internal pressure. The Al Jazeera correspondent in Moscow reported that many Russians were caught totally unaware and didn't expect an invasion to occur. Some even questioned the need to attack the Ukraine. On her way to work she told the taxi driver about the invasion and he thought she was joking.

 

[Stampede]

Possibly, linguistics is not really my thing so I cannot pick apart the message, though I would imagine that if the message was being sent to all mobile phones within a given area, then the message or reporting would state that the SMS were sent to all mobile phones, and not specifically mention that members of the Ukrainian armed forces and/or members of specific brigades received them.

The potential value to Russia of being able to directly message individual Ukrainian personnel, in effect showing that Russia knows who they are, and where they are, would IMO be enormous as it would be both an avenue for more/further intelligence, but also present opportunities for psyops.

It would also be the sort of capability that would have taken significant time and resources to develop and maintain. This in turn would suggest that Russian actions are part of some sort of larger or longer-term plan.

My understanding was the targeting of personal mobile phones was an effective weapon of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Certainly one of the contributing factors to the rapid downfall of government and rapid advance across the country.
Maybe a weapon of choice in Ukraine

Regards S

 

[STURM]

My understanding was the targeting of personal mobile phones was an effective weapon of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

If I'm not mistaken a few years ago; at the height of the fighting in the eastern Ukraine; there was an incident in which Ukrainian soldiers received SMS's which actually identified them by name.

 

[denix56]

Just to repeat -there are thousands of fakes at the moment, even at the pretty good news sources, even some official sources. Please don’t post without being 100% sure.

 

[Redskin301]

Cities is a bit of a wrong term due to its implications. The Dutch text says "places" as in locations. They're two suburban towns on the ukrainian-controlled side of the Seversky Donets river which was previously the ceasefire line.

"Plaatsjes" means "villages" in Dutch!

 

[STURM]

denix,

Has there been any mention in the Ukrainian media about the reported landings in Odessa?

 

[Redlands18]

A big shout out to our Russia expert @Feanor for his updates, especially Post #443.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

denix,

Has there been any mention in the Ukrainian media about the reported landings in Odessa?

I'm interested in that, too. So many conflicting reports and denials, and then denials of denials. Mighty foggy around Odessa. When the reports of landings first came out, it seemed to early for that. They were still blasting away at the naval installation there and other juicy targets.

 

[the concerned]

On various news outlets apparently Estonia, Latvia and possibly Poland are invoking article 4 of Nato. What does this mean