The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Steinmetz

Active Member
Some further assessments:

It's quite clear to me now that Russia did not use most of their forces yet. It seems to me that they're trying to get as much as they can with minimal resistance. They have also laid off using their full EW and Cyber capability. Looks like it'll be a very multi-staged operation. I concur with the expert analysis of Michael Kofman and Rob Lee. Good twitter handles to follow.


https://twitter.com/RALee85
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member
Ranger,

Given what we saw in the eastern Ukraine years ago, I'd imagine that Russian EW is playing havoc on Ukrainian comms and the ability to deploy UASs. If indeed the bulk of Russian armour are still lacking APS and are largely relying on older ERA modules, they'd be extremely vulnerable to Javelin and MBT LAW. I have no.idea if Western assistance to the Ukrainian military included arty locating radars which would come in extremely useful in countering Russian arty and MLRSs.

Several counter battery radars were sent in 2019, I believe more were sent later

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
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Part of what makes the operations around Kiev so significant is that Gostomel' is west of kiev. A Russian landing there could essentially be used to cut off the path of any retreating Ukrainian units out of eastern Ukraine trying to exit through Kiev. Fighting there is continuing. Ukrainian sources initially reported that Russian troops were pushed out of the airfield, but this appears to be untrue. Ukrainian National Guard is reportedly involved, with tanks and artillery. Paratroopers vs heavy mechanized formations is not a pretty scenario, even with plenty of air support and the occasional cruise missile.

It also appears that a land corridor to Crimea is part of the plan. There are unconfirmed reports from the east that Russian troops are past Mariupol', and approaching Berdyansk and Energodar, from the west that they are out of Kherson region and approaching Melitopol'. There are also unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian troops have left Melitopol' and currently nobody holds the city.

Finally from the north Russian troops appear to still be in Sumy, despite the potential Ukrainian counterattack and the footage of damaged/abandoned engineer trucks. Russian troops have also taken control of the Chernobyl NPP.

EDIT: The VMF is still set up across from Odessa, Ukraine has lost comms with the unit on Zmeiniy Island. It's likely some sort of operation is still planned.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
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The Hostomel is under Ukrainian control again.
There's still contradictory info coming in. Let's see what happens. It's possible that the airfield keeps changing hands. It's also possible that info is out of date from some sources.


EDIT: Ukrainian MinDef confirms fighting still going on around Gostomel', but they've apparently prevented the main forces from landing.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
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We have heavy fighting in Sumy, a Ukrainian counter-attack. Details are still murky, each side is claiming victory. There are also reports of sporadic fire-fights in Kherson city.

And in a bit of sad irony, here's a Ukrainian BTR-70M. It's still a BTR-70M but with the UTD-20 from the BMP in the engine, and note the slanted back roof.


EDIT: A possible list of Russian losses.

1 танк Т-80, 2-3 МТЛБ, 1 КамАз с ЗУ-23, 2 Тигра (1, 2), 2 Ка-52 (1, 2), 1 Су-25 (небоевая потеря, на территории РФ).

1 T-80 tank, 2-3 MT-LB, 1 Kamaz truck with a ZU-23-2, 2 Tigr-M armored cars, 2 Ka-52 attack helos, and 1 Su-25 crashed in Russia.


I've also seen footage of one damaged Tor SAM, likely either destroyed or at least out of action, and there's info that an An-26 crashed in Russia for technical reasons.
 
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denix56

Active Member
The Zmiinyi Island after 10h defence was captured. 13 soldiers defended it all this time. After the warning from the Russian warship “Moscow” to destroy the island, they said “Russian warship, f@ck yourself”. After that all the soldiers were destroyed by missiles as well all the infrastructure.

I can’t attach the recording, it is in telegram.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
I'm curious if Zelensky is still in Kiev, if so, he's a brave man. I've seen a lot of conflicting reports on Gostomel.

I have seen many reports that Russian soldiers are in Nikolaev heading west to Odessa.



Can't find a proper source yet, but apparently the commander of the Ukrainian 53 VSU brigade has surrendered in Donetsk.

Had to be surreal for this CNN reporter to see Russian troops just casually operating that close to Kiev. Civilians passing by normally.


According to some people in the chat-box, on a few Russian frequencies. Some Ukrainian commanders are negotiating surrender in certain areas via radio. Take it with a grain of salt.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/?frequency=8131&volume=0#
 

denix56

Active Member
Zelenksy is in Kiev still, with his family. Apparently Russian SOF is in the capital now. That may indicate they may've succeeded around Gostomel.


I've also seen reports that Russian SoF was spotted west of Kryvyi Rih and that phase two of the invasion will commence 0:300 hours Kiev time.
His family somewhere in Ukraine, he stated in the briefing, but it is hidden. And he remains in Kyiv.

Russian SOF could entered without Gostomel, as they had someone in places + there was a plenty of ways to do it.
Also there were no new reports that it was recaptured by Russians, there was still fighting though nearby. Some local people in chats say that it is Ukrainian for the moment.
 

denix56

Active Member
The one thing, that mentioned the president is neutral status of Ukraine. He asked NATO whether they will fight with us or say certainly that we will be in NATO. And no one answered. What the point then of trying to join it, if NATO is not going to help to defend the NATO borders actually (let’s be honest - nothing will stop Russia to attack Europe if USA will leave NATO at some point). And noone can give us a reassurance (100% joining NATO in near future).
 

denix56

Active Member
Here is the report (maybe a bit too optimistic), but summarizes the situation in some way. It was taken from Facebook post of internet political party “Демократична Сокира», translated with google


The night has come, what do we have now and what should we prepare for?

At present, it can be stated that the lightning operation planned by Moscow failed and there were no global breakthroughs in any direction. The night will allow both us and the enemy to regroup and analyze the events of the previous day. Missile strikes on military facilities and infrastructure are likely again. But rest assured that our General Staff, like last night, will receive our intelligence in time and move our main means of resistance - anti-aircraft missile systems, aircraft and tanks.

If we look closely at the direction of the enemy offensive, in the north we have the following picture: Russian troops after long battles completely occupied the Chernobyl zone and all Chernobyl facilities, which in case of destruction of the Sarcophagus entails a man-made disaster. This is what we need to broadcast to all international partners and citizens of European countries! Also, their troops continue to control the suburbs and, according to various estimates, several areas of Sumy, where orcs in their favorite style rob stores. In these areas, the night will most likely not bring radical changes and will give us the opportunity to prepare to repel attempts to move forward.

In the Rivne region, at the end of the day, the tank side continued in the Velyki Osnyaky-Rivne region, but in general the offensive was stopped on the Uzh River. The situation is similar on the outskirts of Chernihiv and on the Kharkiv bypass. Most likely, it will not change until the morning, although provocations or "reconnaissance by battle" in the performance of small forces of the aggressor are possible.

The main victory of this evening is, of course, the elimination of the landing at Gostomel airport, which posed the danger of landing new units by landing Russian planes at the airport just 17 kilometers from Kiev.

In the South, in fact, the situation is more threatening, if we reject the delusion of a naval landing in Odessa and Nikolaev, the most difficult area is primarily Kherson, where the enemy managed to take the dilapidated bridge across the Dnieper and reach the suburbs. Currently, information is being received about the evacuation of the Kherson Regional State Administration. And by morning this situation is likely to remain uncertain.

In the Kherson region, the city of Henichesk (where the mayor announced communication with the NEW administration) and several other settlements came under the control of the occupiers. Also under enemy control is the Oleshkiv landfill and the crossing of the North Crimean canal (the launch of which they are already reporting). But there is an operation to unblock Tavria, so at 9 pm the city of Nova Kakhovka was recaptured, and the orcs did not manage to break through to Melitopol. At night, there is likely to be an accumulation of forces and means to dump enemies into the sea (best case scenario), or a slow push (realistic).

Russia has captured Snake Island several times. The territory of the island was shelled by artillery of the cruiser "Moscow", the patrol ship "Vasily Bykov" and aircraft. No surviving buildings remain on the island, but Marines and border guards continued to defend the island. They did not surrender and did not surrender to the attackers to the last. Eternal memory of the heroes.

In addition, the Russian occupiers fired on a Turkish ship, and Turkey is a member of NATO!

In the eastern direction, fighting continues along the entire line of contact. But this is a convenient and long-explored area, so the enemy did not achieve much success during the day. Our happiness, Vugledar too, in the area of the settlement Pishchevyk breakthrough failed, as well as forcing the river in the area of Stanytsia Luhanska. I don't think that after the day's repulse the Russians, together with the mobilized separatists, will recover quickly, so there will be no news until the morning except for sporadic shelling.

In fact, in this direction, our military has received the long-awaited command "Ib @ sh" and do so with all hatred for the enemy.

Mykhailo Vedmid, veteran, member of the Democratic Ax political council
 

denix56

Active Member
While it is offtopic, but the timing is of course related- does Chine really started the Taiwan invasion? There ships entered waters of Taiwan.

I will not post anything more about China here, please don’t delete, but I think it will affect the USA priorities in Ukraine.
 

kato

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
He asked NATO whether they will fight with us or say certainly that we will be in NATO.
That line of question however seems to be blind to reality, which is that multiple NATO members have stated that Ukraine lacks the preconditions for candidacy to accede to NATO in the foreseeable future. As NATO accession like all decisions requires unanimity the two parts of the question posed simply can not come up in the first place.

In addition, the Russian occupiers fired on a Turkish ship, and Turkey is a member of NATO!
The ship in question is not Turkish flagged, but flies the flag of the Marshall Islands.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The Zmiinyi Island after 10h defence was captured. 13 soldiers defended it all this time. After the warning from the Russian warship “Moscow” to destroy the island, they said “Russian warship, f@ck yourself”. After that all the soldiers were destroyed by missiles as well all the infrastructure.

I can’t attach the recording, it is in telegram.
The ships involved seems to be Project 1164 Moskva and Project 22160 Vasiliy Bikov


Map/Satellite photo of Zmiinyi Island.
Source: Mapcarta
 

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hauritz

Well-Known Member
A lot of "fog of war" stuff happening at the moment.

One stray missile, or the wrong aircraft gets shot down or the wrong ship gets sunk and this could easily escalate. War is usually fought between a whole bunch of excitable twenty year olds with nervous trigger fingers.
 

denix56

Active Member
That line of question however seems to be blind to reality, which is that multiple NATO members have stated that Ukraine lacks the preconditions for candidacy to accede to NATO in the foreseeable future. As NATO accession like all decisions requires unanimity the two parts of the question posed simply can not come up in the first place.


The ship in question is not Turkish flagged, but flies the flag of the Marshall Islands.
Honestly, how many countries in NATO alone can resist such massive attacks? There are inconsistencies in army, but the problem is that part of NATO members are too afraid of Russia / too depend on Russia. It will not happen with or without LDNR problem unless the USA/UK press really hard on Europe. The friend of my friend is Geman, he said that DE army had to combine parts from 2 tanks to run 1 as a considerable amount is not working.


Yes, my mistake with the ship, but it is also an indicator that anything can be hit by war.



1 small update - hacker group Anonymous announced that they start cyber war again Russian government. RT website was down (it is ok now in Germany).

1645749499388.png
 

denix56

Active Member
There are multiple reports (including from the Anonymous group) that Russia plans massive air strikes on Kyiv very soon (in 20 min I think).
I wonder whether it is part of the main plan / disinformation / or it is plan B as the failed to achieve the desired result.

Dont you think it is strange to see the country, that praises itself for winning over Nazi Germany is going to bomb Kyiv (the bombing Of Kyiv at 4:00 was the first major attack of Germany on USSR)?
 
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