The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Steinmetz]

Unconfirmed reports of parts of the Ukrainian Army switching sides. Take it with a grain of salt, but seen more than one person report that.

http://websdr.ewi.utwente.nl:8901/?frequency=8131&volume=0#

FREQUENCY: 8237.01, on 1.69 kHz, on USB tab. Very active Russian Chatter. Might have to refresh the page several times to get in.

 

[Feanor]

Any movement on other parts of Ukrainian border outside the usual conflict zones? Or is the offensives is limited currently?

Yes. Plenty of movement on a whole bunch of borders. Read the posts above, and pull open google maps and check where the locations listed are located.

 

[Feanor]

A map of reported strikes. Detailed updated to follow.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Unric]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496728317969539076

Saw this on ABC. Very interesting request to "close the airspace". Personally I very much doubt US/NATO would as it would make WW3 very likely. Is he "dreaming"? I assume it would make a massive difference to the way things play out.

 

[Todjaeger]

Russia is evacuating all embassy staff in Ukraine. They've been caught burning papers at all of their consulates.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496192950463782915

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1494249684667412480

Heavy ELINT/ISR operation occurring over Ukraine right now, RRR7218(RC-135W), JAKE12(RC-135W Rivet), and FORTE11(RQ-4B). Staying farther back from Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts than they have previously.

Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24

Ukrainian soldiers near Donetsk have been receiving SMS messages being warned to go home before it's too late.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496432079894200322

It looks to me they're still in the process of staging, still seeing plenty of tanks and logistics vehicles moving around. I still feel this isn't a limited scenario and we're still in the calm before the storm phase.

The potential intel implications of Russia sending text/SMS to personnel serving in specific Ukrainian units is IMO quite telling if true.

It would suggest that Ukrainian security has been significantly compromised and has been so for quite some time. It would be one thing for an adversary to assemble an OrBat of what units are serving in specific areas and/or what their kit fitout is. It would be quite another thing to be able to assemble a list of specific individual personnel serving in those units, as well as their personal contact information.

That could also suggest that Russia could be able to monitor Ukrainian troop formats and mustering points if they have compromised the mobile/cell carriers used by the troops.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The potential intel implications of Russia sending text/SMS to personnel serving in specific Ukrainian units is IMO quite telling if true.

It would suggest that Ukrainian security has been significantly compromised and has been so for quite some time. It would be one thing for an adversary to assemble an OrBat of what units are serving in specific areas and/or what their kit fitout is. It would be quite another thing to be able to assemble a list of specific individual personnel serving in those units, as well as their personal contact information.

That could also suggest that Russia could be able to monitor Ukrainian troop formats and mustering points if they have compromised the mobile/cell carriers used by the troops.

Maybe thoses smses are sent to all mobile phone users in that area.

=============================================



According to NOS:

|"Oekraïne claimt neerhalen vijf Russische vliegtuigen en een helikopter

Het Oekraïense leger claimt vijf Russische vliegtuigen en een Russische helikopter te hebben neergehaald in de regio Loegansk. Het Russische ministerie van Defensie zegt berichten over het neerhalen van een vliegtuig te ontkennen."|

So the Ukrainian armed forces claims to have shot down 5 Russian fixed wing aircrafts and one helicopter above Lugansk.

Also the value of the Ruble has dropped for more than 9% the last days, while the price of oil and gas has increased significantly. One barrel of oil is now more than $102.

 

[Steinmetz]

The potential intel implications of Russia sending text/SMS to personnel serving in specific Ukrainian units is IMO quite telling if true.

It would suggest that Ukrainian security has been significantly compromised and has been so for quite some time. It would be one thing for an adversary to assemble an OrBat of what units are serving in specific areas and/or what their kit fitout is. It would be quite another thing to be able to assemble a list of specific individual personnel serving in those units, as well as their personal contact information.

That could also suggest that Russia could be able to monitor Ukrainian troop formats and mustering points if they have compromised the mobile/cell carriers used by the troops.

I concur, that's my feeling. There's more reports that apparently a lot of Ukrainian Border guards put up no resistance. Like I noted earlier, I feel the psychological component is being very overlooked. It's not inconceivable that a variety of factors would cause troops to lay down their arms or defect.

A lot of footage of Kalibr missile strikes, seem many have hit their targets.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1496734726153183235

 

[Steinmetz]

Maybe thoses smses are sent to all mobile phone users in that area.

=============================================



According to NOS:

|"Oekraïne claimt neerhalen vijf Russische vliegtuigen en een helikopter

Het Oekraïense leger claimt vijf Russische vliegtuigen en een Russische helikopter te hebben neergehaald in de regio Loegansk. Het Russische ministerie van Defensie zegt berichten over het neerhalen van een vliegtuig te ontkennen."|

So the Ukrainian armed forces claims to have shot down 5 Russian fixed wing aircrafts and one helicopter above Lugansk.

Also the value of the Ruble has dropped for more than 9% the last days, while the price of oil and gas has increased significantly. One barrel of oil is now more than $102.

There might be some merit to that, I'm sure they have shot down some Russian Aircraft. Well within their ability to do so. Apparently a Russian SU-24 has been shot down, we can confirm at least one aircraft is down so far. Here's the video:

Якобы сбитый российский Су-24.. | Военный Осведомитель | VK

 

[Todjaeger]

Maybe thoses smses are sent to all mobile phone users in that area.

=============================================



According to NOS:

|"Oekraïne claimt neerhalen vijf Russische vliegtuigen en een helikopter

Het Oekraïense leger claimt vijf Russische vliegtuigen en een Russische helikopter te hebben neergehaald in de regio Loegansk. Het Russische ministerie van Defensie zegt berichten over het neerhalen van een vliegtuig te ontkennen."|

So the Ukrainian armed forces claims to have shot down 5 Russian fixed wing aircrafts and one helicopter above Lugansk.

Also the value of the Ruble has dropped for more than 9% the last days, while the price of oil and gas has increased significantly. One barrel of oil is now more than $102.

Possibly, linguistics is not really my thing so I cannot pick apart the message, though I would imagine that if the message was being sent to all mobile phones within a given area, then the message or reporting would state that the SMS were sent to all mobile phones, and not specifically mention that members of the Ukrainian armed forces and/or members of specific brigades received them.

The potential value to Russia of being able to directly message individual Ukrainian personnel, in effect showing that Russia knows who they are, and where they are, would IMO be enormous as it would be both an avenue for more/further intelligence, but also present opportunities for psyops.

It would also be the sort of capability that would have taken significant time and resources to develop and maintain. This in turn would suggest that Russian actions are part of some sort of larger or longer-term plan.

 

[Arji]

Aljazeera mentioned that mechanized unit is moving south from Belarus (might actually be inaccurate, I never heard them mention it again). If so, their target is probably Kiev. There are twitter videos showing rocket artillery firing, the post claims it's from Belarussian territory.

 

[STURM]

If indeed the plan is to occupy the whole or most of the Ukraine what I don't understand is how do the Russians think they can in the long run control such a large and unfriendly population? Unless the plan is not stay for an extended period but to withdraw after certain objectives have been met.

As for Kiev, it's a large city and the Russians know fully well how hard and resource extensive it is to isolate a city, in addition to dealing with its defenders.

One thing's for sure, much more so than Syria and previous operations in the eastern Ukraine, this conflict will really be an indicator to the Russians of just how capable their military is.

 

[Stuart M]

Could be that they plan 'regime change' and have Ukraine as a puppet/buffer state

 

[denix56]

So, at the moment there is a panic in Ukrainian cities (especially Kyiv, one of the airports is in the city).

In Dnipro (my parents are there) the explosions were heard, but it is probably the anti-air stuff working, as the airport is far away from the center (there were 2 strikes at the airport). Also military transport planes were heard.

 

[koxinga]

If indeed the plan is to occupy the whole or most of the Ukraine what I don't understand is how do the Russians think they can in the long run control such a large and unfriendly population? Unless the plan is not stay for an extended period but to withdraw after certain objectives have been met.

1. Destruction of the Ukrainian Army forces (tactical) as a demonstration of the limits of NATO/West (strategic)
2. Regime change, putting a pro-Russian figure head in power, rubber stamping the annexation of Donbass (strategic), creating a default buffer state like the Belarus

None of these require them to stay put en-mass except a "peacekeeping force"

 

[Feanor]

The potential intel implications of Russia sending text/SMS to personnel serving in specific Ukrainian units is IMO quite telling if true.

It would suggest that Ukrainian security has been significantly compromised and has been so for quite some time. It would be one thing for an adversary to assemble an OrBat of what units are serving in specific areas and/or what their kit fitout is. It would be quite another thing to be able to assemble a list of specific individual personnel serving in those units, as well as their personal contact information.

That could also suggest that Russia could be able to monitor Ukrainian troop formats and mustering points if they have compromised the mobile/cell carriers used by the troops.

This isn't news though. Russia has had this level of penetration this entire time. When I say Ukraine is lousy with Russian agents, it's not an exaggeration. Between corruption, espionage, and ordinary pro-Russian sympathies, this is to be expected.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

None of these require them to stay put en-mass except a "peacekeeping force"

I think that "peacekeeping" force would need to be quite substantial. It's unlikely that enough of the Ukrainian police will accept a Russian puppet that they will be able to deal with public opposition by themselves, especially if they're ordered to brutally suppress the protests that would inevitably follow a Russian occupation.

 

[Rock the kasbah]

Any movement on other parts of Ukrainian border outside the usual conflict zones? Or is the offensives is limited currently?

Dude seriously
Usual conflict zones
Have you been reading this sh#t

 

[koxinga]

I think that "peacekeeping" force would need to be quite substantial. It's unlikely that enough of the Ukrainian police will accept a Russian puppet that they will be able to deal with public opposition by themselves, especially if they're ordered to brutally suppress the protests that would inevitably follow a Russian occupation.

No lack of DNR, LNR thugs to help them with the dirty work IMO.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

1. Destruction of the Ukrainian Army forces (tactical) as a demonstration of the limits of NATO/West (strategic)
2. Regime change, putting a pro-Russian figure head in power, rubber stamping the annexation of Donbass (strategic), creating a default buffer state like the Belarus

None of these require them to stay put en-mass except a "peacekeeping force"

|"Pro-Russische separatisten in de regio Loegansk beweren twee plaatsjes in de regio te hebben veroverd. Het gaat om Stanytsia Loeganska en Sjtsjastja. "|
Seperatists claim that they have conquered two cities in Lugansk.



|"Het Russische ministerie van Defensie claimt de Oekraïense luchtmacht te hebben "geneutraliseerd'. De infrastructuur van de luchtmacht, zoals luchtmachtbases, zou uitgeschakeld zijn. President Poetin zei vannacht niet het hele land te willen bezetten, maar slechts precisieaanvallen op militaire doelen te willen laten uitvoeren."|
The Russian Ministry of Defence is telling that they have neutralized the airforce of Ukraine. Putin said that he don't plan to occupy the whole country, and that he want to carry out precision strikes on military targets.

source: nos.nl


Antara reports that 8 people are killed and 9 are wounded in Ukraina.

Ukraina: Delapan orang tewas akibat tembakan mortir Rusia

Sedikitnya delapan orang tewas dan sembilan lainnya terluka akibat tembakan mortir Rusia, ungkap penasihat menteri dalam negeri Ukraina pada Kamis saat Rusia ...

m.antaranews.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

No lack of DNR, LNR thugs to help them with the dirty work IMO.

Not enough to police the whole country. The entire population of those areas is just 2 million - remove all the women, children, middle-aged, old people, critical workers, etc and what are you left with?

Yes, there are Russian-speaking Ukrainians in other areas but I doubt very much they actually want a Russian puppet instead of free and fair elections to the extent they'd gleefully join a fascist paramilitary force to smash the heads of their neighbours.