The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
I don't have time to do a detailed update post today, I'll aim for tomorrow. There isn't much going on except the continuation of clashes but it feels like the weight of the shelling has shifted from rebel areas to Ukrainian areas.
Russia has recognized the breakout regions and moved Russian troops in. If the "shelling in rebel areas" were indeed false flag operations, then we would expect them to stop by now...
 

Feanor

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Russia has recognized the breakout regions and moved Russian troops in. If the "shelling in rebel areas" were indeed false flag operations, then we would expect them to stop by now...
This isn't entirely true. At this point if Ukrainian positions are getting hit by rebel artillery, I would expect Ukraine to return fire. In other words, it wouldn't necessarily stop.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Putin has a long history in giving watches to people, including children, I wouldn't read anything into this.
Thanks. I haven't been in Russia in a little over 20 years, so maybe things have changed. Watches were highly prized back then, but the gifting of one did have that symbolic meaning (although there were ways around it, such as the "giftee" trading some small thing, or "paying" a kopek to the giver). I normally laugh at people who try to read things into such things, but knowing how carefully staged such speeches/events are, and with memories flooding back, that watch really bugged me. Maybe it was because my heart sank when I saw the Z's on the tanks, as they reminded me of the symbols on the Croat tanks in Op Storm (August 4, 1995). I tried to tell myself maybe they were painting those Zs "just in case" but failed to convince myself (rightly, as it sadly turns out).
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Russian state media drinking game:
Mention Soviet era history - sip of whatever drink you have.
Mention revolution era history - finish whatever drink you have.
Mention monarchical Russia - take a shot.
Mention Nazi Germany - take a shot.
Mention Napoleon - finish your drink and take a shot with it.
 

Feanor

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Russian state media drinking game:
Mention Soviet era history - sip of whatever drink you have.
Mention revolution era history - finish whatever drink you have.
Mention monarchical Russia - take a shot.
Mention Nazi Germany - take a shot.
Mention Napoleon - finish your drink and take a shot with it.
I mean... between Soviet era history and monarchical history, you've just about covered the entirety of Russian history pre 1991. It's kind of hard to have a discussion about politics in Eastern Europe without mentioning any history other then the last 31 years.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I mean... between Soviet era history and monarchical history, you've just about covered the entirety of Russian history pre 1991. It's kind of hard to have a discussion about politics in Eastern Europe without mentioning any history other then the last 31 years.
That's just my take on the Russian media to which I am still exposed, and in stark reality to media in Israel and other western countries. Here they'll focus on current events, current interests, political shifts, and so on, while in Russian media I very rarely hear that and it's mostly talk about history, the older the better. They can't bring up Poland without also bringing up Napoleon.
 

denix56

Active Member
It is interesting to see how people in Ukraine react to all these things. The people, who lived in Donbass region before 2014 panic actually less, than other Ukrainians (and myself included). In 2014 you could see groups of ambulances coming several times a day in Dnipro and at the same time full clubs and restaurants in Kyiv. People in other parts of country tried to distant themselves from war before until it has come close to their doors. The refugees actually have already accepted this state of things, in some way, and know how to respond to it.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
Russia has just issued a NOTAM for all civilian flights along the Eastern border of Ukraine. Feels like something big can happen at any moment now. Ukraine has also closed off civilian flights to most airports located in Eastern Ukraine, even Dnipro.


It is interesting to see how people in Ukraine react to all these things.
I feel like this will be one of the biggest factors, if not the biggest factor to determine the long term outcome of all this. So many rhetorical questions to ask: How many will be complacent? How many will be indifferent? How many will actually want to fight back? How many Ukrainian soldiers will lay down their arms? How many will fight to the death? So, so much more questions can be asked. We won't know till it happens.
 

denix56

Active Member
1645661061753.png

For the first time I see Turkish airplane going to Ukraine in the recent weeks.
I wonder whether it delivers or evacuates.
There is also a Global Hawk flying again.

It will be hard to have some sleep for me this night :/
 

Steinmetz

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Feanor

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Update.

It appears the invasion has either already begun or is literally about to begin. Putin has just announced a military operation in Eastern Ukraine.

The Fighting.

A Russian Zvezda correspondent allegedly observing shelling in rebel areas.


There are reports of a Ukrainian offensive in the LNR. The reports are unsubstantiated.


Alleged footage of Ukrainian artillery shelling rebel territory.


We have reports of explosions from Mariupol'.


Schastye getting hit by rebel artillery.


Ukrainian positions at Kamyshevakha getting hit by rebel MLRS fire.


Rebels destroy a Ukrainian munition supply point.


Russia.

Russia has declared a swathe of airspace over the Russo-Ukrainian border closed to civilian traffic. Please note quite a bit of that airspace is over Ukraine not over Russia.


Alleged movement of Russian troops into rebel held areas.


6 Russian BDKs allegedly loaded assault teams in Sevastopol'.


A column of the 4th Tank Division, near Ukraine.


Russians waving goodbye to an artillery column somewhere near Ukraine.


More Z troops near Ukraine. Some are National Guard.


Some T-72B3Ms stuck in mud. Note the cloth bag extra ERA tiles over the sideskirts, and the extra boxes of cargo behind the turret.


A humvee captured from Ukrainian forces during the original fighting was spotted as part of a Russian troop column in Rostov region.


Other Russian troop columns in Rostov region.


A Russian artillery troop train near the DNR border with Russia.


A Russian troop column in Crimea, allegedly 7kms long.


Artillery units in Crimea, getting ready to move.


Russian troops in Abkhazia are moving. It's likely the military base there is sending a BTGr to the Ukrainian border.


Some new tactical markings.


More footage of the BTR-70M.


Russia is evacuating it's diplomats from Ukraine, flags have been lowered at Russian consulates and the embassy.


Russian consulate in Odessa burning papers.


Russia has gathered 3 LNG tankers to supply the Kaliningrad enclave, presumably in case sanctions disrupt pipelines through the Baltics.


Belarus.

Russian National Guard troops were spotted in Belarus.


Approximately 30 Russian attack helos, Ka-52s and Mi-24Ps, landed on a road ~35 kms from the Ukrainian border, in Belarus.


Two A-50Us were spotted in Belarus at the same time.


The rebels.

A DNR column of tanks and IFVs is reportedly headed towards the Mariupol'.


An explosion has occurred near the trolleybus depot in Lugansk, details are unclear.


People waiting at a military commissariat in the DNR and LNR respectively.


DNR recon btln Sparta celebrating in the Donetsk airport.


A UR-77 mine clearing vehicle was spotted moving around Donetsk at night.


Pushilin, head of the DNR, claims Russian troops have not entered their territory.


The rebels have officially requested Russian aid as newly minted independent countries.


Russia will allegedly deploy peacekeepers to the Donbass.


Ukraine.

There are reports that Ukrainian government agencies in Kiev are burning papers.


Ukraine is calling up reservists 18 to 60.


Ukraine has received more Stinger missiles from Latvia.


The West.

Western recon flights over Ukraine.


The US is allegedly planning to deploy F-35s and Apaches to Eastern Europe.


Two Turkish A-400s are headed to Ukraine.


US Special Forces have left Ukraine.


Hungarian troops are moving to the eastern border.


The US and EU have passed new sanctions against Russia.


France cancels it's meeting with Lavrov, saying they've done everything possible to avoid war. The implication is that further negotiations are meaningless. It's not a good sign for Russia.

 

Feanor

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Full on combat has broken out. There are reports of Russian amphibious landings, and missile strikes against targets around Kharkov, Kiev, Mariupol' and other cities. There are unconfirmed reports of landings near Odessa and missile strikes against Ukrainian naval vessels. I'll do another post in 3-4 hours when more info rolls in. This is not the minimum or even the second-lowest scenario. I couldn't include this in the post above, because the information literally started coming in while I was making that update. I finished, refreshed some of the feeds and it was everywhere.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
Full on combat has broken out. There are reports of Russian amphibious landings, and missile strikes against targets around Kharkov, Kiev, Mariupol' and other cities. There are unconfirmed reports of landings near Odessa and missile strikes against Ukrainian naval vessels. I'll do another post in 3-4 hours when more info rolls in. This is not the minimum or even the second-lowest scenario. I couldn't include this in the post above, because the information literally started coming in while I was making that update. I finished, refreshed some of the feeds and it was everywhere.
I actually never expected Russian activities outside the Donbas/area under control of the rebels.

Many things are unclear yet. According to foreign news channels explosions can be heard in multiple places in Ukraine, according to some sources a full Russian invasion has started.

What Putin has announced can also be a mixture of airstrikes and special operations by small units of elite troops. We will see what happen, but i expect that Putin can forget now that Nord Stream 2 become operational.
 
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Feanor

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I actually never expected Russian activities outside the Donbas/area under control of the rebels.

Many things are unclear yet. According to foreign news channels explosions can be heard in multiple places in Ukraine, according to some sources a full Russian invasion has started.

What Putin has announced can also be a mixture of airstrikes and special operations by small units of elite troops. We will see what happen, but i expect that Putin can forget now that Nord Stream 2 become operational.
North Stream 2? There are reports of Russian troops in Odessa, and Borisopol' (SpN, SOF for the latter). Look up where Borisopol' is on a map. Forget pipelines, Putin may be moving on Kiev for regime change.
 

Steinmetz

Active Member
North Stream 2? There are reports of Russian troops in Odessa, and Borisopol' (SpN, SOF for the latter). Look up where Borisopol' is on a map. Forget pipelines, Putin may be moving on Kiev for regime change.
Yep, That's what I'm seeing. There was a livestream by the airport that got cut suddenly when the gunfire erupted.
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
Looks pretty clear to me that this is a proper invasion, not some border skirmish. Appears to have multiple axis of advance to Kharkiv, Kiev and the south (Odessa, Mariupol)
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Looks pretty clear to me that this is a proper invasion, not some border skirmish. Appears to have multiple axis of advance to Kharkiv, Kiev and the south (Odessa, Mariupol)
I fear you are correct. Meanwhile, in the news AP and other wires reported: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday announced a military operation in Ukraine and warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences you have never seen.”
 

Feanor

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Looks pretty clear to me that this is a proper invasion, not some border skirmish. Appears to have multiple axis of advance to Kharkiv, Kiev and the south (Odessa, Mariupol)
Unconfirmed reports that Mariupol' has fallen. It's not likely it happened this fast, more likely that there are Russian/rebel forces inside the city but not fully in control. Mariupol's and Odessa and separate axes, they are on different ends of the country.
 

Arji

Active Member
Any movement on other parts of Ukrainian border outside the usual conflict zones? Or is the offensives is limited currently?
 
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