Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Thank you, Feanor. I've seen reports from the DNR side that the Ukrainians have ceased shelling Donetsk, but can't find any confirmation. Any word on that? RT showing celebratory fireworks in Donetsk: RT на русском
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #362
I haven't seen reports, but it would make sense. If the minimum scenario is in effect, Russian troops entering rebel territory getting hit by a Ukrainian artillery strike might be just the thing to kick the conflict into a higher scenario.
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Many thanks for your reply. Those were my thoughts, but I'm just a civvie, and a female to boot. Nice to have confirmation from you.
Rock the kasbah
Active Member
Here's a link that proposes the Putin speech was pre recorded
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Ukraine Live Updates: Biden Sanctions Russia, To Move More Troops To NATO Member Nations
US President Joe Biden today ordered more US troops to move into NATO member nations in eastern Europe after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognised two separatist areas in Ukraine as independent areas.
www.ndtv.com
Question will be if the initial move only to secure the whole two breakaway region from Ukrainian forces, or this's initial momentum to carve Eastern and perhaps South Ukraine as breakaway East Ukrainian Republic.
Steinmetz
Active Member
USAF RC-135 tracking over the black sea and a RQ-4 is currently flying north seemingly towards the Black Sea as well. Now, there was no reconnaissance over Ukraine proper yesterday. I don't think we'll see any today either, but if so, could be risky.
Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
I'm hearing and reading all sorts of things regarding possible cell phone jamming in Eastern Ukraine along with heavier exchanges of artillery fire.
Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map | Flightradar24
I'm hearing and reading all sorts of things regarding possible cell phone jamming in Eastern Ukraine along with heavier exchanges of artillery fire.
Just because you are a female that doesn't make your worth, value, or intelligence any less than any male. I served with females who were as good as if not better than us guys. Some were useless too and at about the same percentage as the useless guys. Others were absolutely brilliant and who I would trust without reservation my life. I had both male and female officers who I would follow through hell and back no questions asked. But there were others of both sexes I wouldn't follow through an office door. Same with Senior Non Commissioned Officers.
So don't go putting yourself down. Stand up, stand tall, and be proud of who and what you are.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Ukraine does not operate BTR-70Ms though...
Putin has crossed the Rubicon now with his signed agreement to build Russian military facilities in the rebel areas of east Ukraine Ukraine crisis: Vladimir Putin orders forces into eastern Ukraine states he just declared 'independent', West hits back | Newshub. "U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres believes Russia has violated the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine with its decision to recognise eastern Ukraine as independent entities, a U.N. spokesman said.", which is quite true. Russia has been slammed in the UNSC and within the UNSC, the PRC hasn't supported Putin's latest move either U.S. slams Russian 'peacekeepers' in Ukraine as 'nonsense' | Reuters.
A Ukrainian bunker on the frontline
An Australian interview where it is claimed that Putin is attempting to deny Ukrainian nationhood. I tend to agree with that ide.
An American historian on what Putin wants.
The Reason Putin Would Risk War This where Anne Applebaum expands on her ideas regarding Putin's reasons and his fears.
A Foreign Affairs article on what Putin wants: The Putin Doctrine | Foreign Affairs In the article reference is made to Putin's essay on the historical links between the Ukraine and Russia. The official Russian govt English text is here.
Putin has gone to far now and he has committed an act of wanton aggression. This isn't in Russia's security interests because until 2008 NATO and the EU had no interest in projecting force eastwards. But one Putin took a bite out of Georgia and then illegally annexed the Crimea he caused significant concern amongst NATO and EU nations. With his latest bully boy escapade he may have gone one bite to far and bitten off more than he can chew. By threatening war against any who interfere in his actions in what he sees as his domain in which to do his want, he may have sown the seeds of his own demise. Once his oligarchs realise that they are subject to travel sanctions, frozen / confiscated assets and funds in foreign countries, they may pull the rug from under him in order to recover as much of their freedom and wealth as possible.
A Ukrainian bunker on the frontline
An Australian interview where it is claimed that Putin is attempting to deny Ukrainian nationhood. I tend to agree with that ide.
An American historian on what Putin wants.
The Reason Putin Would Risk War This where Anne Applebaum expands on her ideas regarding Putin's reasons and his fears.
A Foreign Affairs article on what Putin wants: The Putin Doctrine | Foreign Affairs In the article reference is made to Putin's essay on the historical links between the Ukraine and Russia. The official Russian govt English text is here.
Putin has gone to far now and he has committed an act of wanton aggression. This isn't in Russia's security interests because until 2008 NATO and the EU had no interest in projecting force eastwards. But one Putin took a bite out of Georgia and then illegally annexed the Crimea he caused significant concern amongst NATO and EU nations. With his latest bully boy escapade he may have gone one bite to far and bitten off more than he can chew. By threatening war against any who interfere in his actions in what he sees as his domain in which to do his want, he may have sown the seeds of his own demise. Once his oligarchs realise that they are subject to travel sanctions, frozen / confiscated assets and funds in foreign countries, they may pull the rug from under him in order to recover as much of their freedom and wealth as possible.
This could all go so many ways.
So what does Putin want?...........................Well probably as much of Ukraine as he can get!
Does that mean he will attack and conquer the entire country.
I seriously doubt it.
Military conquest is one thing, long term occupation is another.
He is not a fool.
So what is manageable.
Assuming NATO and the West offer sanctions and nothing else militarily, he will probably use salami tactics to carve away at the easy bits.
The Dombas was easy and is now an open Russian satellite, or most likely of the same status as that of the Crimea.
Other easy bits!
Well conflict has no easy bits, but I'd suggest those areas linguistically or culturally more aligned to Russia and also land with a low population density.
So will Putin stay within the Dombas region only or will he venture out?
Probably depends on the worlds reaction.
My guess he will go the distance and create that land bridge between the Crimea and Russia through the Dombass.
I'd suspect it wont be a narrow corridor; but rather a wide swath of land south of the Dnieper River and east of Zaporizhzhia.
Suspect also some limited activity throughout the Russian / Belarus and Ukraine border which will be a feint for the south which will be the objective.
I feel acknowledging Russian troops in the Dombas is not enough of a statement for Putin.
He really wants to be heard and test the west.
He is in control and he is tough.
For the good of Russia or not, he will go the distance and stare down sanctions and deal with domestic opposition.
He has to,
For Putin it's now keep face and survival.
[ Russians view ] He wants Ukraine to know its place and other little nations in the Russian sphere to understand that Russia is big and they are not.
NATO or not, your all on notice.
Putin has drawn a line in the sand [ Snow ] .
A lot happening very quickly
I do truly hope I'm wrong on all levels and diplomacy with peace prevails.
Regards S
GermanHerman
Active Member
The faith of Berezovsky and to a lesser degree Pugachev show very clearly what happens to people of the russian elite who think their interests are seperate of those of Putin. I very highly doubt that the siloviki and their friends will drop him for some London real estate.
Furthermore I doubt that the Arab Nations or China will care much about restricting russian Oligarchs from visiting, they have transformed themselfs a lot since the 90's and are able to offer a lot to billionaires looking for a good time.
As it turned out the end of history wasnt the end of histroy at all and the western block under US leadership isnt the sole center of power anymore.
There is too much unaligned world left for the siloviki and their oligarch friends to traverse no matter what the west does.
And in the end it is somewhat naive to believe anyone owns anything in russia, at the end its all part of Putins Empire. Once again, look at Pugachev and where his assets went when he thought he could simply leave Putins circle.
On the other hand I think its possible we wont even see any sanctions. The west hasnt done a whole lot in that regard so far because it would leave it without any other measures to react to any further incursions of russia. So If Putin stops now he basicly got lugansk and donetsk for free and use the threat of a larger Invasion as leverage to get something from the west for not going to war.
We will see.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #373
They certainly don't. That's a very rare variant, originally in service with exclusive the Caspian sea naval infantry, some were donated abroad to iirc Mongolia? Kirgiziya? Somewhere out east. When I made the post, I did think I was looking at a BTR-80, but I blindly copied over the labels. How did you identify it as a BTR-70M vs. a BTR-80?
OMG Feanor got stumped!! Just kidding, thanks for your updates. You give the best information, better than "the media".
Steinmetz
Active Member
Posting this for context of some civilian attitude. A man is livestreaming in Kiev, and the mood seems eerily normal and complacent there. Like there is almost no threat of an impending invasion. I think it goes to show, how woefully underinformed or uninterested a lot of folks are about world affairs until it directly affects them in the moment. People are out drinking, and having a good time.
Live from Kiev
Live from Kiev
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Among the sea of reports I've noticed a few people pointing out these were destroyed BTR-70M rather than regular BTR-70.
Was I wrong to believe them it was a 70M?
EDIT: Trying to find the tweet showing the comparison.
Oryx has several follow up tweets (not in a thread) on the topic.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #377
Ok I looked closer at the footage and compared with schematics. Let's untangle.
First off, there are two BTR-70Ms. One is the Ukrainian BTR-70M which installed the UTD-20 BMP engine in the BTR-70, the other is Russian BTR-70M with a new Kamaz engine. Both are engine upgrades for similar reasons but visually different. The easiest way to identify a regular BTR-70 is that it has a ~22.5 degree slanted roof over the engine in the back (a BTR-60 has a 45 degree slanted roof). The BTR-80 has a flat roof over the engine. The BTR-70M (Russian) also has the flat roof over the top like the destroyed APC in the video. The destroyed APC is definitely not a standard Ukrainian BTR-70, like the many they operate. Ukraine does operate small quantities of BTR-80s and BTR-3s which would have a flat roof. To the best of my knowledge all Ukrainian BTR-3s have complex turrets, not the regular cone of Soviet manufacture, so it's not one of those. The regular BTR-80 has a two-part hatch, a top square and a bottom triangular shaped hatch, this one doesn't have that top square hatch between the 2nd and 3rd wheels (it has a utility hatch between the 3rd and 4th wheel). So... this is not a BTR-80. Add to this that the firing ports don't look like a BTR-80, they look like a BTR-70. In principle, given the franken-BTRs Ukraine has made by cutting up old hulls that could have been disregarded, but not the side hatches and engine compartment. This is 95% a Russian BTR-70M, with a slight change that this is some very odd Ukrainian BTR variant that's just little know. If it's the latter, some serious evidence will be needed to corroborate. Between the highly unlikely location of the incident, and the extremely short helmet cam footage provided, I think we can safely call this a false flag.
Putin on Ukraine:
I wonder if Putin believes much of this himself? I also wonder what the common Russian makes of all of this?
Some comments on Putin's "history lesson":
Putin Calls Ukrainian Statehood a Fiction. History Suggests Otherwise. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
I wonder if Putin believes much of this himself? I also wonder what the common Russian makes of all of this?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #379
There's a lot of truth to what he said. There are also a lot of lies. And many of his interpretations are fanciful to say the least. His claim, for example, that modern day Ukraine was created by Lenin, in terms a formalized state entity, is mostly correct. However what Snyder says about the recognition of a forming Ukrainian nation is the correct assessment. There's room to debate the borders the VKP(b) drew, but not the idea that Ukrainian is a distinct nationality and ethnicity. This does mean that Ukraine as a nation-state traces it's existence to Lenin's decree (something that anathema to modern day Ukrainian nationalists).
Pre-1917 Ukrainian statehood is indeed a fiction, but only insofar as nation-states in the borders of the Russian Empire in general were fictions. There was the Empire, and before the Empire there were feudal entities that simply aren't states or nation-states in modern sense, and none of them line up neatly to modern day Ukraine. So, for example, a claim made by some loonier Ukrainian nationalists is that Russians are a degenerate form of Ukrainian from intermixing with Tatar and Finno-Ugoric populations, and therefore Ukrainians are the pure continuation of Kievan Rus. This is blatantly untrue. Ruthenians are a common ancestor to Russians, Ukrainians, and Belorussians, and all 3 groups intermingled with plenty of other ethnicities (pretty much every ethnicity mixes with others over time, and from a biological standpoint this is a very good thing). But neither can Russia claim in anything but the most symbolic manner to be the inheritor of Kievan Rus. From a (deeply medieval and complete inapplicable in the modern sense) sovereignty standpoint, the dynastical rule of the Ryrikovich house can be traced down to Fedor Ivanovich (son of Ivan IV) who was the ruler of what is recognizably a Russian state (though not yet nation-state). And Russia is fine to claim this, like France is fine to claim they are the inheritors of Charlemagne (not saying they do, just a hypothetical example). They would not be find to try and lay claim to Saxony on that basis.
In a sense, all statehood and nationhood is a shared fiction (please note I distinguish nationality from ethnicity). But modern day Ukraine's statehood is no more fictional then modern day Russia's. Both are direct descendants from Soviet Republics that first formed the Union by treaty, and later disbanded it by exiting the treaty.
To me the most instructive takeaway is how sneering his attitude is towards Lenin and Stalin while simultaneously trying to capture some idea of a glorious common Soviet and Imperial heritage with Ukraine. It's very instructive for those who think Putin wants the USSR back.
Ukrainian as a distinct language was recognised by 19th century Russian governments, & was one of the language options (as 'Little Russian" or the like) in the 1897 census, as was Belorussian. There were areas with a Ukrainian-speaking majority then where it's now a minority, & areas where it was a large minority where it's now a small minority, e.g. Kuban. Ukrainians point to Russification & differential mortality, e.g. in the famines under Stalin, as the causes, & see changing the population balance of eastern Ukraine as being a deliberate Russian policy.