The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart · May 3, 2022

Feanor said:
I have such a hard time grasping where this profound idiocy stems from. Lavrov and Putin have orchestrated nuanced and well executed foreign policy maneuvers. Where from comes this crude stupidity? Russia has few enough friends left... and there isn't even anything gained by this statement.

You do have to wonder.

There is an unconfirmed report that Putin has handed control over to Nikolai Patrustev who was head of the FSV and now is Secretary of The Security Council of Russia. This handover of control is only for 2 - 3 days whilst Putin undergoes surgery for cancer. One wonders if Patrustev has come up with this story and told Larov to spread it.

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin to undergo cancer surgery, transfer power to 'outright villain': report - NZ Herald

koxinga · May 3, 2022

I saw the TV segment where Lavrov said those words. It does not seem to be a prepared statement but something he said off the cuff in reply to a journalist that President Zelensky is Jewish.

But you would imagine that someone with his level of experience should know how to deal with this question. You can sidestep it, pretend you never heard it, you could say that Zelensky is not in full control and his government has Nazi sympathisers etc. But this reply is honestly one I never expected to hear from him.

Vivendi · May 3, 2022

Feanor said:
Norway is planning the delivery of 20 M109 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

This has not been officially confirmed in Norway.

However it is true that recently 20 Norwegian M109s were pulled out of storage and tested. No particular reason has been given for performing the testing, just that the testing was performed to "see if the equipment still works." When asked specifically if it's related to a potential shipment to Ukraine they declined to give an answer. Nyhet, Ukraina | Tunge våpen hentet ut av beredskapslagrene i Ofoten – vil ikke svare på om de skal til Ukraina (nettavisen.no)

koxinga · May 3, 2022

Not sure what's going on with Russia at the moment. They seem incapable of walking back statements without feeling they "lost" and the need to double down.

This matter that has nearly zero bearing on the conflict.

Accusing Israel of supporting Nazis gotta be the craziest thing I've heard coming out of the Kremlin in a while.

Russia claims Israel supports neo-Nazis in Ukraine after Lavrov-Hitler flap

The claim comes a day after Israeli leaders lambasted the Russian foreign minister for claiming Hitler had Jewish origins.

m.jpost.com

Croc411 · May 3, 2022

It seems that nowadays the Kremlin's definition of a 'nazi' is: anyone who dares to oppose or even just criticize Russia.

Apparently, in Russian state TV they now resort to numerology to determine who is a nazi:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1520184297059201025

Vivendi · May 3, 2022

koxinga said:
Not sure what's going on with Russia at the moment. They seem incapable of walking back statements without feeling they "lost" and the need to double down.

This matter that has nearly zero bearing on the conflict.

Accusing Israel of supporting Nazis gotta be the craziest thing I've heard coming out of the Kremlin in a while.

Russia claims Israel supports neo-Nazis in Ukraine after Lavrov-Hitler flap

The claim comes a day after Israeli leaders lambasted the Russian foreign minister for claiming Hitler had Jewish origins.

m.jpost.com

In the Russian "alternate reality" this makes sense -- those opposing Russia are often denoted Nazis, and those that criticize Russia publicly for pulling the Nazi card (as Israel did), would then naturally (from the Russian perspective) be seen as a Nazi as well. In Russia, this is "normal".

Russia is now starting to claim the Swedes are full of Nazis: Russia smears Swedish cultural giants as Nazis in propaganda posters (thelocal.se)

I strongly suspect it's linked to the Russian fear that Sweden is considering NATO membership.

The only positive thing about all this is that more and more people outside of Russia finally start to realize how Russia operates. This, together with Russian war crimes and other horrible atrocities in Ukraine, will hopefully open people's eyes to the realities of the current Russian regime.

"The West" must keep assisting Ukraine, and keep sanctioning Russia until Russia leaves Ukraine and stop attacking others. Russia has to change their ways, not "the West".

The main failure of "the West" was that Russia was not punished much harder earlier -- for committing war crimes in Grozny and Aleppo, and for invading Ukraine in 2014.

swerve · May 3, 2022

Vivendi said:
This has not been officially confirmed in Norway.

However it is true that recently 20 Norwegian M109s were pulled out of storage and tested. No particular reason has been given for performing the testing, just that the testing was performed to "see if the equipment still works." When asked specifically if it's related to a potential shipment to Ukraine they declined to give an answer. Nyhet, Ukraina | Tunge våpen hentet ut av beredskapslagrene i Ofoten – vil ikke svare på om de skal til Ukraina (nettavisen.no)

Some (I read 45) ex-Belgian army M109s are in the hands of a company called FTS, which has been trying to sell them. I read (here?) that Belgium has tried to buy them back to give them to Ukraine, but it's stalled over the price FTS is asking.

Vivendi · May 3, 2022

It seems Germany will send 7 Pzh 2000 to Ukraine: Arms deliveries: German government wants to deliver howitzers to Ukraine in 2000 - WELT

Finally.

Señor Pomidor · May 3, 2022

ngatimozart said:
Inflation at the moment is not that bad and probably manageable. In the 1970s and1980s it was in double digits and the economies survived. There is bipartisan support for US military equipment support to Ukraine and that won't change because it's in the US national security interest and NATO's interest that Ukraine be fully supported until the Russian invasion is fully blunted and Russia removed from Ukrainian territory.

Hello,

This inflation may not be as manageable. This article by Zoltan Poszar, head of interest rate strategy at Credit Suisse explains the current financial situation, the lack of tools of central banks to deal with inflation and what are the possible turn outs.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502555449194946562

We have seen other financial experts such as Ray Dalio, expressing that we may end in period of stagflation. Actually, we could argue that we have already entered in stagflation since the US GDP shrank last quarter: U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter, but Underlying Measures Were Solid

Regarding the bipartisan support, I would not be so sure that the $33Bn bill is going to be passed in the parliament. There is a big part of the conservative half of the US that is not so gun-ho about the US involvement and support in the Ukrainian war. [Mod edit: Text deleted on unreliable source, given the speculative nature of your attempted discussion. You need to give clear disclaimers when what you post is so speculative, it might just be your imagination.

Any further attempts to derail this thread with an unsubstantiated discussion on American domestic politics, without regard for executive power (given that the Democrats control both the Senate & House), will lead either to a deletion of the post or a ban; or both.

Minimum levels of quality in posts is expected; shape up or get the boot.]

StobieWan · May 3, 2022

We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..

John Fedup · May 3, 2022

StobieWan said:
We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..

….Indeed, but so is his audience which is quite large and they typically show up to vote. [Mod edit: Welcome back from your ban. Apologies for the heavy handed guidance.

Please note that you need to give clear disclaimers when what you post is speculative. Any further attempts to derail this thread with an unsubstantiated discussion on American domestic politics, without regard for executive power (given that the Democrats control both the Senate & House), will lead either to a deletion of the post or a ban; or both. ]

OPSSG · May 3, 2022

Post 1 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

StobieWan said:
We may be straying into politics here - I'd just remark that polling consistently indicates the majority of US voters from either side of the aisle supports aid to Ukraine. I also would remind folk that Tucker Carlson is a relatively low fidelity source shall we say..

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521452326304854017

1. For the needed context, on the point you make — the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022 has moved smoothly through both houses of the US Congress; with the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act already passed in the Senate on 7 April 2022. It was introduced in the Senate by Senators John Cornyn (R-TX) and Ben Cardin (D-MD) with Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) as original co-sponsors of the legislation.

2. Going forward, will ban anyone citing Tucker Carlson in this thread. It’s just speculative nonsense to cite Fox News (without sufficient disclaimers).

(a) The Kremlin prefers not to remember that the US sent 4.5 million tons of food to the Soviet Union in lend-lease aid. In both Russia and Belarus, the official history of the Great Patriotic War is rather silent about how Soviet soldiers ate cooked pork meat from American cans. The Russians are also not saying single word about WWII which started in 1939 by the German-Soviet attack on Poland.

(b) Time is also not on the side of the Russians, as everyday they spend fighting in Ukraine, is another day for Ukraine’s supporters in the West to deliver more weapons to the Ukrainian Army. On the speculative side, I suspect that:

(i) Israel's defence industries want to show that they are responding to Russian war crimes, and this impetus, rather than Lavrov's comments per se, is driving aid — I don’t believe it. Israel’s stance on the war in Ukraine is no better than Indonesia (limited to humanitarian assistance);

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521541296988565505

(ii) in terms of 2 dimensions of time and space as critical success factors for Russian operational planning — the Russians seem not to be able to achieve their objectives (in terms of distance or ground gained or gaining the ground in a timely manner to allow movement of follow-on forces). Unless we see improved Russian integration and synchronization of mass in space and time, this effort by the Russians to advance may fail;

(iii) some of the reported problems are not just propaganda — Ukraine's presidential office adviser Arestovych reads out excerpts from intercepted calls between Russian soldiers indicating dire conditions for the latter; and

(iv) an impact of the war in Ukraine, due to high loss ratios, will be the inability of the Russian armed forces to retain personnel and attract new eager talent. In the long term, the general characteristics (qualities) of a typical Russian soldier will decrease; and the number of contract personnel could decline due to the current attrition rate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521534418208403460

3. Worth taking a look at the posts by @HN_Schlottman, to get a general idea of force ratios. Lots of smart people putting up data. In other news,Ukraine forces have also pushed into Staryi Slativ; about 40km North East of Kharkiv. Russian forces withdrew before they could be cut off in an isolated position. As a result, a chain of villages have become Ukrainian-controlled territory without the need for a fight.

OPSSG · May 3, 2022

Post 2 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521478125485543424

4. We have seen this sort of argument before in 1941; surrender Europe to Hitler. This line of American reasoning is not even new — it was a minority, then; and it’s still a minority today. At the ballot box, the Democrats won the Presidency, control the Senate and the House. Until this fact changes, this is the will of the American people.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521598425984389120

5. Evidence of the Russians falling for decoys.

6. In recent news, it was reported that Germany intends to pay for delivery by Hensoldt of surveillance and counter battery-radars (Spexer and Cobra) to Ukraine, also Night Owl long range surveillance cameras (previously also exported to unspecified country within Scandinavia).

SPEXER 360 is a lightweight, low power, X-band radar, that provides an affordable surveillance capability.
COBRA is a German JV radar system for the accurate and rapid location of enemy guns, rocket launchers and mortars. It may also be used for the adjustment or registration of the fire of own artillery.

Total value of these systems destined for Ukraine is about €50 million.

Twain · May 3, 2022

Here's an article detailing what military aid Ukraine asked for and what they have received (or has been promised) By and large they got most of what they asked for with a few important exceptions

Aircraft- jets and helicopters
They got parts to repair 20, maybe, I see some posts out there by Poles joking that 2 more mig 29's went missing last night, our base security really sucks
would be surprised that if in the next month or two, more russian jets aren't provided or NATO starts training Ukrainian pilots on western aircraft or possibly both

Mid to long range SAMS
This seems to be a problem for NATO, there just don't seem to be enough Russian mid to long range sam systems available to them and you have to deal with training time for western systems. Not sure what the answer is here, NASAMS maybe? as I don't see them getting Patriots anytime soon.

Long range tactical missiles
I'm not sure what will happen here, NATO is concerned about Ukraine hitting too many targets inside Russia but long term Ukraine is going to need to be able to hit airfields, rail lines, supply depots etc deeper inside Russia

What Heavy Weapons the West Has (and Hasn’t) Sent Ukraine - New Lines Institute

A Ukrainian government website lists the heavy military equipment Kyiv has asked for, what’s been promised, and what’s been delivered.

newlinesinstitute.org

Big Slick · May 3, 2022

ngatimozart said:
Inflation at the moment is not that bad and probably manageable. In the 1970s and1980s it was in double digits and the economies survived. There is bipartisan support for US military equipment support to Ukraine and that won't change because it's in the US national security interest and NATO's interest that Ukraine be fully supported until the Russian invasion is fully blunted and Russia removed from Ukrainian territory.

If you think United States inflation is not as severe as the 70’s or 80’s just apply the Consumer Price Index from those eras to todays economy and I think you will find it’s every bit of double digits. Better yet just buy something, anything and the extent of this inflation is apparent. You are correct that there is bipartisan support by the elected officials. I would speculate that the American peoples support for this conflict is not as strong as advertised. I would also speculate that many people do not see Ukraines plight as a vital American interest. American leadership and the media are not always a reflection of the sentiment of the American people.

denix56 · May 3, 2022

Found an interesting info about how much one of the main volunteer organisations provided since 24.02:

«Для росії немає жодної цінності в людському житті». Олег Карпенко з «Повернись живим» — про ситуацію на фронті, потреби армії та героїзм українців

Олег Карпенко — колишній військовий та співробітник найбільшого українського фонду компетентної допомоги армії — «Повернись живим». На тлі повномасштабної війни, що триває вже понад два місяці, ми поговорили з ним про ситуацію на фронті, реорганізацію фонду та зростання фінансування, «палки в...

dou.ua

The total amount of donations during the last 2 months to this organisation is around $100M. They bought everything they can buy - transport, equipment, drones, medicine, laptops, printers, optics. They say that while the soliders, who were fighting before 24.02 had everything they need, the army tripled since that time and that is why they have to buy all this stuff.

surpreme · May 3, 2022

The best guide for the Ukrainian conflict is the war in Syria. A numerically smaller Syrian army and its allies, supported by Russian air power and missile strikes managed to defeat a larger insurgent army backed by Turkey, and the gulf states. They did it slowly, in small bites. Very slowly at first, to the point most western analysts thought they were losing. I see the same process at work, with large force in Ukraine.

When the Russians intervened in Syria it was a month or two from collapse. Nobody really appreciates what they managed to do. They welded Hezbollah, the Iranians, the Iraqi militia, the Syrian army into an efficient war winning machine, and if the west were honest, they never gave them a chance. Now look at Russian forces they are moving slow, and the west think they are losing. Now you have same General who commanded in Syria in charge pay attention to their maneuvers I see repeat in the making. The only problem is the Ukraine are trained better and have good support from NATO. The effect of the economics of Russia will determined if it will work

Feanor · May 3, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Footage of a Ukrainian Bayraktar strike taking out two Russian patrol boats.

Colonelcassad

Кадры поражения катеров ПС ФСБ с БПЛА "Байрактар" в районе острова Змеиный. Высказывается мнение, что это может быть один катер, сначала поврежденный, а затем добитый, когда он остановился.

t.me

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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