The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[tonnyc]

If you think United States inflation is not as severe as the 70’s or 80’s just apply the Consumer Price Index from those eras to todays economy and I think you will find it’s every bit of double digits. Better yet just buy something, anything and the extent of this inflation is apparent. You are correct that there is bipartisan support by the elected officials. I would speculate that the American peoples support for this conflict is not as strong as advertised. I would also speculate that many people do not see Ukraines plight as a vital American interest. American leadership and the media are not always a reflection of the sentiment of the American people.

Can you talk about US domestic politics in another thread, please? I don't give a damn about your take on it and it's cluttering this otherwise excellent thread. I also don't give a damn about your personal take whether Americans sees the Ukrainian plight as vital or not. Your bubble doesn't constitute proof. Talk about it elsewhere.

 

[denix56]

This isn't even close to accurate as a comparison. Ukraine is a state military not a collection of loose militias. Russia doesn't have even a fraction of the international legitimacy here that it did in Syria. The west and co. were divided and had competing priorities and conflicting objectives (Kurds vs Turks vs SAA vs others). Here the west is relatively united, has a functioning state apparatus, with it's mobilization systems and infrastructure in place, to fight.

In Syria, Russia could take all the time they wanted. Even a total defeat wouldn't be catastrophic, or even all that costly. Here even a slow victory is terrible for Russia. There are honestly so many differences, I can't even list them all. The only real unifying factor is that Russia and the West are on opposite sides in each conflict (even this is only partially true, remember in Syria almost everyone was united against ISIS).

The major difference is how the ordinary citizens of Western countries react to these wars.

In Syria - far away, one more war at the Middle East, muslims -> terrorists and, as a result, we don’t care what Russians do there (it is an exaggeration, but true in general what people, who are not very interested in it, think about it).

In Ukraine - holy sh@t, it is near our borders, they threaten that we are next. People in Poland are particularly stressed about this situation, resulting in business in border regions to freeze and wait what will happen.

The difference in perception results in different kind of support from the West

 

[OPSSG]

Post 3 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

In Ukraine - holy sh@t, it is near our borders, they threaten that we are next. People in Poland are particularly stressed about this situation, resulting in business in border regions to freeze and wait what will happen.

The difference in perception results in different kind of support from the West

7. The difference lies in geography, which does not favour the defender in the flatlands — Ukraine shares a land border with Russia and it’s the direct invasion route — from Ukraine, to Poland, to Germany — shocking to see the use of hard power and war making as a Russian choice.

​

(a) If Putin’s Russia had succeeded in their attack of Ukraine, Poland will the next in line. Conversely, Syria was a universe away from Russia. This in not Syria, Ukraine shares a border with Russia and has been able to engage in legitimate self-defence actions via cross border attacks (on train tracks, oil storage facilities and so on), to impede Russian logistics efforts in their invasion of Ukraine.​

​

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(b) Charles Michel, President of the European Council says the European Union is considering additional military support to Moldova.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519603701085782016

8. Without NATO and article 5, Poland’s aid and support to Ukraine would have made the country’s cities a target of Russian air attack — triggering a even bigger transmigration crisis of IDPs, within Europe. The German Vice-Chancellor and Minister of the Economy Habeck explains why he supports supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons. There is space to understand why some people and countries will only provide humanitarian aid and why some are choosing to arm Ukraine. CEE countries and Germany both have agency — in choosing to speak up and in making choices, to enable Ukraine to resist the Russian invasion.

• Berlin will be ready to back an immediate European Union ban on Russian oil imports, two German ministers said.
• To keep the bloc united, the EU executive may offer Hungary and Slovakia exemptions or transition periods and phase in the ban by year-end.
• Foreign financial aid will ensure the stability of Ukraine’s central bank reserves as the country deals with the economic shock from the Russian invasion, central bank governor Kyrylo Shevchenko said.

9. German Vice-Chancellor and Minister of the Economy Habeck says that the share of Russian oil in German oil imports has already been reduced to 12% and that substituting the rest might be possible within days He sees an embargo as "manageable" now. Germany is doing much more than most would have predicted at the beginning on 24 Feb 2022 (just 69 to 70 days ago). This is the good thing, a government sensitive to public opinion.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian cruise missile launches, Black Sea.

СМОТРИ

Пуск высокоточных ракет в ходе спецоперации на Украине : Минобороны РФ ▶️@smotri_media

t.me

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Explosions around Nikolaev.

Рыбарь

Взрывы в окрестностях Николаева. #Николаев #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Russian project 636.3 submarine existing Sevastopol'.

Военный Осведомитель

636-я выходит из Севастополя. Вероятно «калибровать» Украину.

t.me

Russian news are reporting that Russian security forces found a torture room in a cellar in Kherson region where the body of a Russian service member with signs of torture was found, along with empty syringes, and package cases from Ukrainian munitions. Warning graphic footage.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

The Amur bridge got hit in Dnepropetrovsk. It's a two-story bridge that takes cars and trains.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Армия России продолжает уничтожение транспортной инфраструктуры, чтобы затруднить поставки оружия и топлива с Запада Нанесён удар по Амурскому железнодорожному мосту в Днепропетровске t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Kotsnews

Подтверждается удар по Амурскому (Старому) мосту в Днепре. Ракета, по предварительным данным, влетела в опору. Мост - двухъярусный. Сверху - автомобильный, снизу - железнодорожный. @sashakots

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет ракеты по Амурскому мосту в Днепропетровске. Видео с камеры видеонаблюдения.

t.me

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Kharkov-Sumy.

Allegedly a Ukrainian BTR-4 destroyed in Kharkov region as part of the recent Ukrainian offensive.

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A destroyed Ukrainian ATGM buggy, and hiding hole. Note, I think this is the same destroyed buggy we saw before from a distance.

РаZвед_ДоZор

Российский спецназ проводит зачистку лесополосы в Харьковской области Диверсионные группы ВСУ оборудуют вот такие вот позиции, где могут находиться неделями, пока их не найдут и денацифицируют. Диверсанты используют легкую автомобильную технику типа «Багги» с установленными на них ПТРК (в...

t.me

Ukrainian Grad rocket storage captured near Kharkov.

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Russian Orlan-10 launch near Kharkov.

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Russian mixed air defense formation, Buk-M2s and Tor-M(2?). Normally Tors and Buks don't mix, as the Tors are in front line combined arms brigades, and Buks are in dedicated air defense brigades.

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Izyum Salient.

Captured Ukrainian positions near Liman. Note that the bus with the label "children" and "evacuation" was apparently loaded with munitions for transport.

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LDNR Front.

Russian air defenses firing over Shahtersk.

Dambiev

Работа российской ПВО над Шахтерском сегодня.

t.me

Air defenses firing, LNR area.

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Destroyed Ukrainian T-64 near Zavitne Bazhannya, Donestk region.

Zluchka Tactical

Сожженный украинский танк недалеко от села Завитне Бажання. @zluchka_tactical

t.me

Fuel storage in rebel held Makeevka got hit. Allegedly a Ukrainian Smerch strike.

Telegram: Contact @zheltyeslivy

t.me

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Battle damage from allegedly a Ukrainian artillery strike, Donetsk.

Южный Плацдарм

ВФУ нанесли удар по Кировскому району Донецка, ДНР Прилеты были в окрестностях остановки общественного транспорта, в следсвии которых осколками посекло маршрутное такси. По предварительной информации, есть пострадавшие, их выносят из маршрутки. Информация уточняется. @yug_plazdarm

t.me

Battle damage in Yasinovataya, allegedly Ukrainian shelling.

Репортёр Руденко V

Вновь сегодня целый день под огнём г Ясиноватая. Причём нацисты бьют по жилым кварталам с применением РСЗО БМ-21 Град. С 24-го февраля в результате обстрелов повреждены под тысячу жилых домов , постоянно раненые и убитые мирные жители. И вот опять приходят сообщения об обстреле этого города...

t.me

Rebels apparently captured a KrAZ Cobra armored car.

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Mariupol'.

Russian mortar teams shelling Azovstal'. Note their red striped shirts, I think these are Troops of the Interior.

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Battle damage inside Azovstal'.

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Russia has announced a humanitarian corridor to allow remaining civilians to leave Azovstal' from 080-1800 May 5, 6, and 7th.

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The West.

We have continuing reports of train delays across western Ukraine.

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Russia.

The bridge recently destroyed in Kursk region has been rebuilt.

Readovka

Взорванный украинскими диверсантами мост в Курской области восстановлен за несколько суток Работы ремонтных бригад на участке Суджа — Сосновый Бор в Курской области велись круглосуточно, сообщили в администрации Курской области. «Железнодорожники восстановили движение через мост на участке...

t.me

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Belgorod fuel storage, image of the battle damage.

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Misc.

Ukrainian Martlet MANPADS launch, allegedly against a Russian UAV.

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Allegedly, US fighters in Ukraine.

Репортёр Руденко V

Американцы в составе иностранного легиона на Украине.

t.me

Captured Ukrainian weapons. Location and context unclear.

Военкор Астрахань

Трофейные американские ПЗРК Стингер и формуляры с комплектностью поставки к ним.

t.me

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Russian SpN, Ukraine. Location and context unclear.

А

You can view and join @ok_spn right away.

t.me

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Ukrainian fighter with a US-made M32 grenade launcher. This is the first time I've seen these in Ukraine.

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Zelenskiy says that Ukraine is not open to having this conflict resolved in a Minsk-style agreement, and he won't agree to have it be a frozen conflict.

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Ukraine is planning to create mobile air defense teams using Mistral MANPADS.

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Interesting look at a Ukrainian BTR-80 upgraded with better optics and digital comms.

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NATO/EU.

At least 8 PzH 2000s on railroad platforms in the Netherlands, presumably in preparation for shipment to Ukraine.

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Finland is moving troops towards its borders, allegedly in preparation for declaring NATO membership plans.

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[OPSSG]

Post 4 of 4: Putting a stop to posts so speculative, it is all just Russian imagination

10. Key updates on day 69 since Russia invaded Ukraine:

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One, American confirmation on the delivery of 81 of the 90 U.S. howitzers pledged to Ukraine — along with training 50-60 Ukrainian troops on M777 howitzer artillery in Grafenwöhr, Germany. 90,000 of 144,000 American artillery rounds, promised have been delivered to the Ukrainian Army.​

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Two, the U.S. continues to assess that Ukraine is able to move weapons through the country. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin first said that Ukrainian forces already has begun to use howitzer artillery that the United States sent them.​

​

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Three, the Pentagon indicates that “roughly a couple thousand” Russian troops are left there, supplemented by Chechen fighters. There were previously about a dozen battalion tactical groups there. “The vast majority” of Russian forces that were in Mariupol have now relocated, the senior U.S. defense official says. Many appear to have paused near the town of Velyka Novosilka, in Donetsk oblast, possibly to refit, senior U.S. defense official says.​

​

Four, Kherson and Izyum remain in Russian hands. Russia’s progress south from Izyum remains uneven and slow, and “stalled, in general,” the senior U.S. defense official says. Ukrainian resistance at play.​

​

Five, below is recently released footage from Ukrainian operations (fighting with large vehicle convoys) near Kharkiv which resulted in regaining Ruska Lozova.Ten days ago, there were 50 to 80 Russian shelling and rocket attacks on Kharkiv every day. Now, thanks to a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the number has fallen to about five.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521909761599578119

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Six, Russia’s 20+ missile strikes in western Ukraine around Lviv, were fired from the Caspian Sea.​

​

11. With regard to application for NATO membership, the Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde: "Naturally, I'm not going to go into any details, but I feel very sure that now we have an American assurance." Bloomberg reports that Sweden and Finland have won assurances of help if threatened by Russia in the interim period between an expected application to join defence. These assurances are not the same as article 5, but they should aid deterrence.

Finland is moving troops towards its borders, allegedly in preparation for declaring NATO membership plans.

12. This is part of Finland’s normal, yearly Arrow22 exercise (that takes place in Niinisalo and Säkylä);

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521864908597563398

(a) It’s about Russian misinformation by putting a deliberately wrong spin on Finland moving military equipment within its own borders.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521790958211420162

(b) Finland is NOT moving tanks to the border. The tanks were being moved to the army mechanised exercise Arrow22, which takes place in the opposite direction than the Russian border. Share the truth. Avoid sharing Russian propaganda.​

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(c) Meanwhile, on 4 May 2022 (Wed) at 10:40AM, a Russian Mi-17 entered Finnish Airspace. The Russian helicopter flew around 4 to 4.5 km into Finnish territory, between the towns of Kesälahti and Parikkala, the ministry of defence stated. About 20km apart, the towns of Kesälahti and Parikkala are both about 10km west of Finland's border with Russia. "This is the second airspace violation committed by a Russian aircraft this year," the ministry's communications chief, Kristian Vakkuri, said. The previous airspace breach took place on 8 April 2022 and involved a Russian state-owned passenger jet.​

 

[Feanor]

12. This is part of Finland’s normal, yearly Arrow22 exercise (that takes place in Niinisalo and Säkylä);

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521864908597563398

(a) It’s about Russian misinformation by putting a deliberately wrong spin on Finland moving military equipment within its own borders.​

​

(b) Finland is NOT moving tanks to the border. The tanks were being moved to the army mechanised exercise Arrow22, which takes place in the opposite direction than the Russian border. Share the truth. Avoid sharing Russian propaganda.​

I appreciate the correction. The word allegedly in that sentence should have been at the beginning, not in the middle. I don't necessarily have a way to verify the truthfulness of the statements. I do my best to evaluate accuracy, but what you're doing is sort of part of the point of why I post this here. If Russian sources are lying, and I share them here, we can find out. Information in this conflict is highly contradictory.

 

[hauritz]

There should be no buildup to the announcement. Keep all negotiations behind closed doors and then just announce it before the Russians have a chance to respond.

if they had done that with the Ukraine there would be no war

 

[surpreme]

This isn't even close to accurate as a comparison. Ukraine is a state military not a collection of loose militias. Russia doesn't have even a fraction of the international legitimacy here that it did in Syria. The west and co. were divided and had competing priorities and conflicting objectives (Kurds vs Turks vs SAA vs others). Here the west is relatively united, has a functioning state apparatus, with it's mobilization systems and infrastructure in place, to fight.

In Syria, Russia could take all the time they wanted. Even a total defeat wouldn't be catastrophic, or even all that costly. Here even a slow victory is terrible for Russia. There are honestly so many differences, I can't even list them all. The only real unifying factor is that Russia and the West are on opposite sides in each conflict (even this is only partially true, remember in Syria almost everyone was united against ISIS).

I'm not trying to compare the conflict with Syrian Civil War. I added more than I should but Russia should conduct the operation like they did in Syrian Civil War like airpower and small movements. I have notice they try to attack Ukraine with little manpower but didn't use a lot airpower to make up for limited manpower. The main thing Russian not using is airpower.

Western experts are puzzle why airpower wasn't used. If Russia learn anything from U.S. military is the use of airpower. I made a mistake in earlier post that Russia has to learn from U.S. that is false. They haven't learn anything from studying U.S. during Iraq war in 2003. Overall, I'm started to feel like western expect that Russia is a paper tiger.

 

[ngatimozart]

HI Sutton update on five significant VMF losses in the war so far. What must be galling for the Russians is that these losses have been caused by a nain that has no navy.

Russian Navy's 5 Significant Losses In The Ukraine War So Far - Naval News

 

[Redlands18]

HI Sutton update on five significant VMF losses in the war so far. What must be galling for the Russians is that these losses have been caused by a nain that has no navy.

Russian Navy's 5 Significant Losses In The Ukraine War So Far - Naval News

View attachment 49233

The Slava/Moskva was originally commissioned in 1982, anyone who would have attempted to predict its eventual fate in 1982 would have been locked up in an insane asylum and they would have thrown away the keys. How the world has changed in those 40 years.

 

[T.C.P]

I'm not trying to compare the conflict with Syrian Civil War. I added more than I should but Russia should conduct the operation like they did in Syrian Civil War like airpower and small movements. I have notice they try to attack Ukraine with little manpower but didn't use a lot airpower to make up for limited manpower. The main thing Russian not using is airpower.

Western experts are puzzle why airpower wasn't used. If Russia learn anything from U.S. military is the use of airpower. I made a mistake in earlier post that Russia has to learn from U.S. that is false. They haven't learn anything from studying U.S. during Iraq war in 2003. Overall, I'm started to feel like western expect that Russia is a paper tiger.

Its easier to use air power indiscriminately when the oppostion has no air defense beyond older generation MANPADS. In the first few weeks, Russia hit a lot of the medium and long range Ukrainian AD systems but it was not enough. Ukraine still has enough Buks, Osas and a few S-300s left to prevent Russia from flying like they way they want to. Their newer generation MANPADS have left Russian combat choppers as pitiful aerial mlrs systems. For the last month and a half, all Russian chopper videos are of them flying very low and launching high angled unguided rockets safely within Russian forces controlled territory. The VKS' pathetic number of guided muntions have made them useless. If they had enough PGMS, they could have used their Tu-22s and Su-24s to cause some serious damage, but they dont.

Russian drone stirkes have been fairly successful in the air in terms actually hitting active UA combat forces in the front lines, but as far as I know the only UAV Russia has that can take muntions is their Orion-10 and their payload and numbers are not high enough.

@Feanor recently been seeing a the rebels use a lot of commercial DJI drones to correct artillery to great affect, is there any chatter on Russian webforums how they intend to fix for the DJIs poor data security. If I recall, Ukraine stopped using them, because of it.

This video is what almost all Russian chopper videos have been for the past 50 days. High angled fire of unguided rockets

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/uguz7m

 

[Feanor]

@Feanor recently been seeing a the rebels use a lot of commercial DJI drones to correct artillery to great affect, is there any chatter on Russian webforums how they intend to fix for the DJIs poor data security. If I recall, Ukraine stopped using them, because of it.

They probably don't intend to. I honestly haven't heard any chatter about that. There are things that a national military can do that the rebel forces struggle with. Also Ukrainian Armed Forces receive foreign aid on a scale that Russia simply hasn't replicated when it comes to the rebels.

Note, rebel reservists still aren't provided with sufficient body armor or kevlars. Nevermind comm gear, UAVs, etc. It's so bad that the rebels have resorted to sewing together improvised plate carrier and putting in metal strike plates that can at least protect from 5.45 and shrapnel, which is better then nothing.

 

[STURM]

Russian drone stirkes have been fairly successful in the air in terms actually hitting active UA combat forces in the front lines, but as far as I know the only UAV Russia has that can take muntions is their Orion-10 and their payload and numbers are not high enough.

They also have the Zala Kyb loitering UAS. There is no doubt that the Ukrainians initially had the edge in UAS employment and they certainly made the headlines as part of an overall propaganda/PR campaign but from what I gather the Russians have been increasingly deploying armed UASs and these have been scoring some successes.

For me, the interesting question is why the Russians were unable to deploy UASs and integrated them as effectively as they did in the Donbass years ago.

 

[STURM]

Russia should conduct the operation like they did in Syrian Civil War like airpower and small movements. I have notice they try to attack Ukraine with little manpower but didn't use a lot airpower to make up for limited manpower. The main thing Russian not using is airpower.

Russia is using airpower in a way in knows how to and is able to given various inherent issues. It can't conduct stuff the way in did in Syria because it faces a larger and better armed resistance over a much much larger area. It also has to operate at much higher tempo.

Western experts are puzzle why airpower wasn't used. If Russia learn anything from U.S. military is the use of airpower. I made a mistake in earlier post that Russia has to learn from U.S. that is false. They haven't learn anything from studying U.S. during Iraq war in 2003. Overall, I'm started to feel like western expect that Russia is a paper tiger.

Learning something from others and actually being able to implement or duplicate it can be a profoundly different thing. In Syria the operational circumstances were such that the Russians made do with what they had and what they had was sufficient; in the Ukraine it's a totally different situation.

As to why airpower was not used extensively at the start; we know that the political leadership did not want to alienate the population and cause unnecessary casualties because they believed - wrongly - that the bulk of the population would welcome the Russian army as liberators. Same delusional thinking that led to units entering without a proper logistics set up and forced to operate in a way not consistent with established doctrine/training. Some units were only told they were going in 48 hours prior and were led to believe that it would mainly be a mopping up operation.

Whilst the Russians have indeed performed poorly and have various inherent issues; one is also tempted to speculate how certain European/NATO air arms would fare if faced with similar operational circumstances; against this level of threat; the required tempo and over a such a large area. Without U.S. participation would they have the needed SEAD/DEAD and ISR capability and what about stocks of consumables like ordnance and spares?

 

[T.C.P]

They also have the Zala Kyb loitering UAS. There is no doubt that the Ukrainians initially had the edge in UAS employment and they certainly made the headlines as part of an overall propaganda/PR campaign but from what I gather the Russians have been increasingly deploying armed UASs and these have been scoring some successes.

For me, the interesting question is why the Russians were unable to deploy UASs and integrated them as effectively as they did in the Donbass years ago.

I have no idea about russian loitering munitions, I wonder how many of those they have.

The UA have been using cheap commerical drones to drop simple bombs on Russia forces. Previously I saw the Myanmar anti junta forces do it, but the UA uses more powerful munitions. I saw at least 4-5 tanks being taken out by muntions dropped from some of the larger commerical drones. But the smaller ones have been doing great as well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ui48ll
The two best combat video from the Russian side I have seen this week, were the Wagner groups 20 min close combat drone footage where they captured the UA soldiers (Feanor already posted that one in one of his updates) and this one. DPR using DJI drones to accurately guide artillery and stop a UA attack in its tracks.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/ui4vsc

 

[STURM]

The UA have been using cheap commerical drones to drop simple bombs on Russia forces.

If I'm not mistaken the first recorded use of commercial drones being rigged with ordnance were ones deployed by IS in Iraq. They dropped mortar shells and 40mm grenades. Since then there has been widespread use of commercial stuff to drop ordnance.

 

[ngatimozart]

It appears that the Russians have lost a T-90 tank in combat within the Kharkiv area. The T-90M Proryv-3 is Russia's most modern operational tank and the loss of one to the Ukrainian untermenschen will not go down well within Russian Army high command circles. Russia doesn't exactly have a lot of these tanks, 100 or so, that it can afford to lose. Whilst it is only one tank and there has been a lot of incompetence evident within the Russian military since the beginning of the invasion, it does not behove the observer to conclude that the T-90M Proryv-3 is a poor design or tank yet. Not enough is known about the incident itself and how the tank was being fought by the tank commander and his superiors.

Russia Just Lost Its Most Advanced Operational Tank In Ukraine (thedrive.com)

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1370748836432510976

The Pentagon assesses that Russia is trying to take out electrical power needed to operate railroads. “Both sides rely on rail for resupply,” the senior U.S. defense official said. 20+ Russian missiles were launched, and struck regions not frequently targeted in the past, in particular, strikes near Lviv targeted supply chains, including those for humanitarian aid. The Ukrainians use trains as much as the Russians; that is why the Russians want to disable their train network.

 

[swerve]

...Whilst the Russians have indeed performed poorly and have various inherent issues; one is also tempted to speculate how certain European/NATO air arms would fare if faced with similar operational circumstances; against this level of threat; the required tempo and over a such a large area. Without U.S. participation would they have the needed SEAD/DEAD and ISR capability and what about stocks of consumables like ordnance and spares?

A big chunk of the €100 billion Germany is starting to spend is for replenishing its run-down war stocks. Manufacturers will be busy. I assume that some of the planned increases in defence spending of other European countries will be spent the same way. A lot of old munitions are currently being expended in Ukraine, & orders are being made to replace them. I've not heard announcements about increasing stocks, but it seems likely.

They have SEAD/DEAD & ISR capability, some of it part US/part European, e.g. the NATO AWACS fleet. Is it enough? Maybe not.

 

[Vivendi]

A big chunk of the €100 billion Germany is starting to spend is for replenishing its run-down war stocks. Manufacturers will be busy. I assume that some of the planned increases in defence spending of other European countries will be spent the same way. A lot of old munitions are currently being expended in Ukraine, & orders are being made to replace them. I've not heard announcements about increasing stocks, but it seems likely.

They have SEAD/DEAD & ISR capability, some of it part US/part European, e.g. the NATO AWACS fleet. Is it enough? Maybe not.

Germany and Italy have some SEAD/DEAD capabilities with their old specialized Tornadoes I believe.

Greece, Spain and Turkey have some limited SEAD/DEAD with AGM-88 HARM missiles. Also the French has "DEAD lite" with their latest R3F Rafale fighters.

Many European countries will "soon" have at least the potential for much improved both SEAD/DEAD and ISR, through the F-35 block 4 that should start rolling out soon. That will be a game changer.

Getting Serious About SEAD: European Air Forces Must Learn from the Failure of the Russian Air Force over Ukraine

The failure of the Russian air force to gain and exploit air superiority over Ukraine has been a surprise for most air power professionals. However, far from inspiring complacency, Russian failure should make Western air forces reflect honestly on how they would fare under similar circumstances.

rusi.org

Italian Air Force F-35s Carry Out SEAD and DEAD Training During Exercise Lightning 2020

During the Exercise, four Italian F-35 Lightning II have carried out missions in the Polygone range and trained with the Italian SIRIUS Surface Based Air

theaviationist.com

An in-depth look at the Dassault Rafale

The Dassault Rafale is a fast-evolving, combat-proven, omnirole fighter that has now been delivered to four countries: France, Egypt, Qatar and India. There’s also an extensive ‘roadmap’ to further

www.key.aero

https://setav.org/en/assets/uploads/2021/09/R191-Greece.pdf

Quite some gaps when it comes to ISR. France has some capabilities as does Turkey, the UK and Sweden. Also here I think F-35 will help due to it's excellent sensor suite and sensor fusion. And Wedgetail is on it's way, already operated by Turkey, and soon the UK.

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/140166/DTP%205%20C4ISR%20Gap.pdf