The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[OPSSG]

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful ground offensive in the direction of Zaporizhia City and intensified shelling in Kherson Oblast on 4 May 2022. More details on the counter-offensives in Kharkiv Oblast to follow:

1. Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces has said that Ukraine launched counter-offensives in Kharkiv Oblast. He added that fierce battles still continue in the vicinity of Popasna, Kreminna and Torske in Luhansk Oblast, where the main efforts of the Russian occupiers are focused.

2. Multiple sources, including ISW have confirmed that Ukraine has launched a major counter attack east of Kharkiv against the Izyum salient.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522007456771018753

3. Russian forces around Izyum are by far the most concentrated in Ukraine, with approximately 22 BTGs occupying the area — around 15,000 to 19,000 troops. Despite this, there is almost no progress there.

4. Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as "nonsense." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said there was no truth to the rumours "at all."

 

[swerve]

...
Quite some gaps when it comes to ISR. France has some capabilities as does Turkey, the UK and Sweden. Also here I think F-35 will help due to it's excellent sensor suite and sensor fusion. And Wedgetail is on it's way, already operated by Turkey, and soon the UK.

Don't forget the multinational NATO E-3 fleet.

 

[Vivendi]

4. Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as "nonsense." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, said there was no truth to the rumours "at all."

British Defense secretary Ben Wallace is one of those that have said he believes Russia may change rhetoric from "special operation" to "war" and use this to justify full mobilization: Putin may soon officially declare war on Ukraine, US and Western officials say

However, several analysts disagree, saying they believe it's more likely that Russia will declare victory, referring to crushing of the Azov battalion ("de-Nazification"), destruction of Ukrainian military infrastructure ("de-militarization"), and "protected Russians" by occupying Eastern Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1521803362152374274

I am no expert but my "gut feeling" is more in line with Mr. Alperovitch.

As for the Russian denial: I would put very little (if any) weight on that, after all the lies and disinformation coming from Russia. I suspect the truth is completely irrelevant to them, in particular in the current setting. They simply say whatever they believe can be beneficial to them. Whether it happens to align with "truth" or not, is probably just a coincidence...

Edit: This tweet by our dear Comrade D. Putin seems however to depict the status of week 10 quite accurately...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522163528274173952

 

[koxinga]

I'm not trying to compare the conflict with Syrian Civil War. I added more than I should but Russia should conduct the operation like they did in Syrian Civil War like airpower and small movements. I have notice they try to attack Ukraine with little manpower but didn't use a lot airpower to make up for limited manpower. The main thing Russian not using is airpower.

Russian "airpower" in Syria was directed at anti-Assad forces of various stripes with limited anti-aircraft capabilities. Ukraine on the other hand, is a state actor with an integrated air defence system. Even at its current degraded state, they still have long to medium range SAM capabilities along with airforce with operational fighters. They are also supported by Western nations in ELINT and other capabilities.

Second, Russian airforce performance in Syria is dismal to begin with. Referencing Anton Lavrov's research on Russia's air campaign in Syria, their average sortie count is less than 50 per day between 2015 - 2017, excluding a once off peak of 80 in Feb 2016.

The currrent campaign in Ukraine has seen Russian sortie counts rising to 200+ per day which is signficantly higher than Syria. Not only that, they have lost more rotary assets in the last 3 months than years of Syrian fighting.

What you are seeing is not Russia not using airpower, you are seeing the limits of Russia airpower.

References:

https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/cop-2018-u-017903-final.pdf

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.

rusi.org

 

[STURM]

Germany and Italy have some SEAD/DEAD capabilities with their old specialized Tornadoes I believe.

The ECRs. Many European air arms have a SEAD/DEAD and EW capability and I would assume that things have significantly improved since Kosovo but how they would perform in a large scale high intensity conflict against an opponent which has a extensive AD network is the question.

Second, Russian airforce performance in Syria is dismal to begin with. Referencing Anton Lavrov's research on Russia's air campaign in Syria, their average sortie count is less than 50 per day between 2015 - 2017, excluding a once off peak of 80 in Feb 2016.

Dismal in comparison to what certain other air arms would have managed no doubt but my take is that it worked given the operational circumstances faced. The limited number of sorties they could generate; lack of PGMs; issues hitting time sensitive targets, etc, were not major prohibiting factors in Syria. In the Ukraine things are very different naturally; a whole different and much more challenging environment.

 

[Vivendi]

The ECRs. Many European air arms have a SEAD/DEAD and EW capability and I would assume that things have significantly improved since Kosovo but how they would perform in a large scale high intensity conflict against an opponent which has a extensive AD network is the question.

Actually I am not aware of European air forces having SEAD/DEAD capability, apart from what I listed. Happy to be proven wrong. It depends on your definition of SEAD/DEAD of course. Some would say France don't have it, I used the term "DEAD lite" to highlight that I believe it's a borderline capability for the French even when using their latest and greatest French hardware & software.

 

[Feanor]

Russian "airpower" in Syria was directed at anti-Assad forces of various stripes with limited anti-aircraft capabilities. Ukraine on the other hand, is a state actor with an integrated air defence system. Even at its current degraded state, they still have long to medium range SAM capabilities along with airforce with operational fighters. They are also supported by Western nations in ELINT and other capabilities.

Second, Russian airforce performance in Syria is dismal to begin with. Referencing Anton Lavrov's research on Russia's air campaign in Syria, their average sortie count is less than 50 per day between 2015 - 2017, excluding a once off peak of 80 in Feb 2016.

The currrent campaign in Ukraine has seen Russian sortie counts rising to 200+ per day which is signficantly higher than Syria. Not only that, they have lost more rotary assets in the last 3 months than years of Syrian fighting.

What you are seeing is not Russia not using airpower, you are seeing the limits of Russia airpower.

References:

https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/cop-2018-u-017903-final.pdf

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

On the fifth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of many unanswered questions is why Russia has launched a military campaign at huge cost with maximalist objectives, and then declined to use the vast majority of its fixed wing combat aircraft.

rusi.org

A lot of people have taken things that were somewhat true in the openings days of the war and keep applying to try and explain things weeks later. This refers to things like Russian restraint, which isn't a myth, it was real, just very brief (while leadership still held the illusion that the Ukrainian military wouldn't fight) or the absence of widespread air strikes, or not targetting troop staging areas to avoid high body counts.

 

[STURM]

Actually I am not aware of European air forces having SEAD/DEAD capability, apart from what I listed.

Indeed. I'm only aware of the ECR/HARM combination the Germans and Italians have. The French too have certain level of capability as you pointed out.

It depends on your definition of SEAD/DEAD of course.

To me a radar being physically destroyed by a ARM would be DEAD but a radar which is not transmitting due to fears it could be targeted or a GBAD being unable to fully function because it has been targeted by EW and is worried about ARMS is SEAD.

In this video the speaker mentions that the Russians were not as successful as they could have been because they undertook KH-31 shots at extreme ranges which lessened the PK. Still early days and there's too much 'fog' but eventually we'll know more about how the number of Ukrainian radars and SAM sites destroyed/damaged.

 

[cdxbow]

Last 3-4 hours there have been increasing rumours a Russian frigate was struck by Ukrainian missiles and is on fire

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522521497801150464

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522517385198153729

I'm waiting for the Kremlin to deny it, then I know it's true.

 

[Redlands18]

Last 3-4 hours there have been increasing rumours a Russian frigate was struck by Ukrainian missiles and is on fire

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522521497801150464

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522517385198153729

I'm waiting for the Kremlin to deny it, then I know it's true.

If its the Makarov that could possibly be worse for Russia then the Moskva. The Makarov is one of the most modern Warships in the Russian Navy, just 5 years old, one of the very few Frigate size Ships built in the last 20 years.

 

[cdxbow]

If its the Makarov that could possibly be worse for Russia then the Moskva. The Makarov is one of the most modern Warships in the Russian Navy, just 5 years old, one of the very few Frigate size Ships built in the last 20 years.

Well, I'm sure it's out of action for a while. I saw video on Twitter which was very rapidly removed. It showed 2 missiles launching from a sort of mini VLS with clear imagery of the back ground, not a good idea. Then there was telephoto footage following them in flight, then some very highly magnified footage of them impacting amidships, one from port, the other from starboard. The CIWS looked like they got a few shots off a couple of hundred milliseconds before impact. I watched it a couple of times to see if it looked genuine and I was going to keep it, went to grab it, then it was gone. Perhaps it, or parts of it will resurface.

 

[GermanHerman]

H I Sutton seems not convinced that something actualy happened by the publicly available data atm. We will have to wait some longer to see if more material emerges.

Meanwhile there are some indications russia is preparing to mobilise. At least they seem to set up some of the needed infrastructure, given the scale it might also just be for political signaling and to show resolve towards ukrains backers.

Russia also seems to have lost yet another T-90m. It would be interesting to know how many of them actualy are in Ukraine given the relativ small number in russian arsenal.

 

[Ranger25]

Multiples Westen ISR assets are covering the Black sea area of the potential strike (still unconfirme) included an RAF Rivet joint and an USN triton

 

[Feanor]

Russia also seems to have lost yet another T-90m. It would be interesting to know how many of them actualy are in Ukraine given the relativ small number in russian arsenal.

It's probably a single tank company's worth, all operating on the northern end of the front line in Kharkov region, near the Russian border. They're likely part of a BTG from the 27th Motor-Rifles.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Well, I'm sure it's out of action for a while. I saw video on Twitter which was very rapidly removed. It showed 2 missiles launching from a sort of mini VLS with clear imagery of the back ground, not a good idea. Then there was telephoto footage following them in flight, then some very highly magnified footage of them impacting amidships, one from port, the other from starboard. The CIWS looked like they got a few shots off a couple of hundred milliseconds before impact. I watched it a couple of times to see if it looked genuine and I was going to keep it, went to grab it, then it was gone. Perhaps it, or parts of it will resurface.

You mean this one?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522452548334100480

According to another source, this looks similar to an older video.

 

[Ranger25]

The Kremlin has denied the Admiral Makarov has been hit while the ukraine MOD said it was hit by a single Neptune strike and is on fire. OSINT( attempts to be somewhat objective and factual) claims the ship is on fire and multiple ships and aircraft have been dispatched to assist so we wait to hear any facts once again but rumors abound, facts are slim

Russia Denies New Warship Strike by Ukraine as Makarov Rumors Swirl

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he had "no information" about reported strikes against the Russian warship.

www.newsweek.com

 

[StobieWan]

Early days yet I guess. OSINT seems to be leaning more into the story being true just now but I think we'll have to await confirmation - if there are ships attending her, some footage will emerge on social media shortly I'm sure. The Ukrainians seem to tend to avoid easily falsifiable claims whereas the Russians have frequently made claims which fell over very soon after so I'm leaning towards it being a credible possibility for now.

 

[Rob c]

If its the Makarov that could possibly be worse for Russia then the Moskva. The Makarov is one of the most modern Warships in the Russian Navy, just 5 years old, one of the very few Frigate size Ships built in the last 20 years.

Yep the following was on MSN news about the Makarov.

MSN

I'm waiting for the Kremlin to deny it, then I know it's true.

Looks like you have your wish, if Ranger 25's post is correct.
If all this is correct then it will reduce the effectiveness of the Russian navy and push them further out from the Ukrainian controlled area's of the coast.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

It seems that Wali, the famous Canadian sniper is back to Canada. Does somebody here speaks French and can tell us what did he say about his time in Ukraine? : Retour du tireur d'élite Wali | « La guerre, c’est une déception terrible » | La Presse

 

[cdxbow]

You mean this one?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522452548334100480

According to another source, this looks similar to an older video.

No, the one I saw was taken down quickly. I have no doubt the boat was hit.
This is another video. This is not the one I saw but this consistent with the video I saw but only after she was hit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1522585313528500224