The Current Conflict In Syria

[Feanor]

Update.

Footage of ISIS attacking an Egyptian Army outpost. A sobering reminder that despite what's looking like the end of ISIS in Syria, it's alive and kicking elsewhere.

Появилось видео нападения ИГ на египетский укрепленный пункт

3 Russian service members are reported killed in Syria, their car ambushed.

Wall
В провинции Дейр-эз-Зор погибли 3 военнослужащих РФ

Satellite imagery of the Boguz area, where the last open ISIS resistance in Syria was crushed.

Район Богуза после завершения боев

A photo of the Tu-214R flying over Syria. The Tu-214R is Russia's newest strategic ELINT platform, and only two are operational now, with a third reportedly under construction.

Ту-214Р над Сирией

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Israel has struck targets near Masyaf in Syria, relatively close to where the S-300s are deployed.

ВВС Израиля очередной раз отбомбились по Сирии
Результаты удара по Масиафу 13.04.2019
Wall

There are reports of intense strikes against targets in Idlib, including a missile strike, by Russia. This comes as Erdogan visits Moscow.

Удары по Идлибу. 08.04.2019

There is a claim that the Orion UCAV was used in Syria. While this would fall in line with Russia's practice of testing new weapons there, the evidence is flimsy.

Россия впервые применила в Сирии ударный беспилотник (Видео) | Еженедельник «Военно-промышленный курьер»

Satellite imagery of Iskander missile complexes in Syria.

Оперативно-тактические ракетные комплексы "Искандер" в Сирии
https://andrei-bt.livejournal.com/1262988.html

Some photos of armor from Syria.

https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3109619.html
https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3109831.html
https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3110055.html
https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3110724.html
https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3106467.html
https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3108413.html

 

[Traveller]

Here is an article from Arutz 7 from Israel on the Iskander deployment. I can't work out why Russia needs to deploy this weapon as the only two targets are Israel or the Kurdish enclave. In case of the former its use would impact the Russian-Israeli deconflagation agreement. In the case of the latter it is either overkill or live training.

What are advanced missiles doing in Syria?

 

[Feanor]

Here is an article from Arutz 7 from Israel on the Iskander deployment. I can't work out why Russia needs to deploy this weapon as the only two targets are Israel or the Kurdish enclave. In case of the former its use would impact the Russian-Israeli deconflagation agreement. In the case of the latter it is either overkill or live training.

What are advanced missiles doing in Syria?

Russia has been using advanced weapons against inferior targets in Syria for the entire duration of this conflict. A lot of it is about testing the weapons in relatively real conditions and giving the personnel experience. This isn't the first time the Iskander was deployed to Syria, and even more expensive Kalibr missiles were used from VMF ships and submarines in the past.

 

[Feanor]

The SAA has launched an offensive in northern Hama capturing and almost immediately losing a key hill. The attack was preceded by Russian air strikes, and the counter attack came from Tahrir Ash Sham. The situation remains murky, and it's unclear whether this is part of a major offensive or just a local push.

Wall
Боевое применение истребителя Су-35С ВКС России по боевикам в Хаме
Наступление САА в Северной Хаме

Tochka and Smerch missile systems are heading towards Hama.

Error

12 attempts have been made to hit Khmeimeem airbase with UAVs, presumably launched by the Syrian rebels. Their failure is somewhat of a testament to the serious air defense umbrella over Khmeimeem.

За месяц авиабаза Хмеймим подверглась 12 попыткам обстрела

 

[Feanor]

Update.

The SAA has taken Kafr-Nabud, halting the rebel counter-attack, and advancing further then yesterday. The city is apparently still partly contested, but mostly under government control. So far this has the makings of a limited offensive, possibly designed to make it harder for the rebels to send UAVs against Khmeimeem.

Штурм Кафр-Набуда
Кафр-Набуда взят

An FSA improvised MLRS firing at government forces near Aleppo.

Wall

Russian UAVs and two Su-25 dive bombers have been deployed to T-4 airbase.

Error

Some more close up shots of the Syrian missile system, Golan-1000.

Сирийский ракетный монстр Golan-1000
Голан-1000 проявился опять

ML-20 howitzers (mod. 1937) supporting the Syrian offensive in Hama.

Wall

 

[Feanor]

Update.

A rebel counter-offensive in Northern Hama failed, and the SAA has taken another chunk of territory clearing out several small towns/villages.

Коротко по Идлибу. 11.05.2019
Контрудар "Ан-Нусры". 10.05.2019
Сирийская армия продолжает продвижение на севере провинций Хама и Латакия
Wall

It appears that Russia has handed over two Il-76MD transports to the Syrian AF.

Пятый и шестой Ил-76МД ВВС Сирии бортовые YK-ATE и YK-ATF, бывшие 76639 и RA-76634 ВКС РФ

Bunkers are being built in the place of helipads at Khmeimeem airbase, possibly to store munitions.

Строительные работы на авиабазе Хмеймим

An interesting improvised SP-arty, a D-30 on the back of a large truck.

https://strangernn.livejournal.com/1915564.html

Another heavily modded BRDM-2 was seen in Syria. In the past vehicles like this were associated with Russian private military.

https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3132538.html

Russian military advisers or "advisers" have been spotted in northern Hama.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/4978359.html

Some photos of Russian personnel in the Al'-Gab valley.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1093176

A large cache of weapons was found in the country-side near Damascus.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1092128

 

[Ranger25]

News breaking of IDF air strikes on the Near Homs on Iranian targets


Five killed in alleged Israeli attack on Syria's T4 airbase

 

[Pentaprism]

Took a while but apparently Erdogan has convinced Trump to get out of the way and let the Turks take control of the Syrian border.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...65e466-e8b3-11e9-bafb-da248f8d5734_story.html

Any suggestions on what Erdogan would have said to make Trump agree to this? Is it possible he threatened to pull Turkey out of Nato? Or kick the US out of Incirlik Air Base? Maybe fire at US Troops if they got in the way?

Whatever the motivation it's quite a historic decision by Trump. It's brings into focus the issue of US loyalty to it's allies and if the US is even a viable ally.

So what happens now? Does Turkey stop at the 30km mark inside the Syrian Border or do they take over as much Syrian Territory East of the Euphrates as they please? What will Russia do about this? They will be delighted to see US weakening it's position but is it any better for them that Turkey is taking control? Turkish backed rebels are more hostile to Assad than the Kurds were so it hardly benefits Russia for them to be expanding their territory.

And will this have implications for the remaining US forces East of the Euphrates and the Al Tanf Base?

 

[ngatimozart]

Took a while but apparently Erdogan has convinced Trump to get out of the way and let the Turks take control of the Syrian border.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...65e466-e8b3-11e9-bafb-da248f8d5734_story.html

Any suggestions on what Erdogan would have said to make Trump agree to this? Is it possible he threatened to pull Turkey out of Nato? Or kick the US out of Incirlik Air Base? Maybe fire at US Troops if they got in the way?

Whatever the motivation it's quite a historic decision by Trump. It's brings into focus the issue of US loyalty to it's allies and if the US is even a viable ally.

So what happens now? Does Turkey stop at the 30km mark inside the Syrian Border or do they take over as much Syrian Territory East of the Euphrates as they please? What will Russia do about this? They will be delighted to see US weakening it's position but is it any better for them that Turkey is taking control? Turkish backed rebels are more hostile to Assad than the Kurds were so it hardly benefits Russia for them to be expanding their territory.

And will this have implications for the remaining US forces East of the Euphrates and the Al Tanf Base?

We don't know because the decision was made in the White House and Trump has a habit of making decisions where he has something to gain. He doesn't listen to advisers, so we'd have to look at what he has to gain out of it first. If you look back through the history of US interventions in the Middle East they do tend to desert their allies when they have achieved their policy goals, or they are left a mess behind. They aren't alone in this, because the British and French did much the same too.

 

[John Fedup]

Took a while but apparently Erdogan has convinced Trump to get out of the way and let the Turks take control of the Syrian border.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...65e466-e8b3-11e9-bafb-da248f8d5734_story.html

Any suggestions on what Erdogan would have said to make Trump agree to this? Is it possible he threatened to pull Turkey out of Nato? Or kick the US out of Incirlik Air Base? Maybe fire at US Troops if they got in the way?

Whatever the motivation it's quite a historic decision by Trump. It's brings into focus the issue of US loyalty to it's allies and if the US is even a viable ally.

So what happens now? Does Turkey stop at the 30km mark inside the Syrian Border or do they take over as much Syrian Territory East of the Euphrates as they please? What will Russia do about this? They will be delighted to see US weakening it's position but is it any better for them that Turkey is taking control? Turkish backed rebels are more hostile to Assad than the Kurds were so it hardly benefits Russia for them to be expanding their territory.

And will this have implications for the remaining US forces East of the Euphrates and the Al Tanf Base?

Don't think a threat to pull out of NATO was the issue, Turkey isn't worth much with Erdogan in charge and his restrictions on Incirlik reduce its usefulness. Besides, Trump isn't much of a NATO fan. Maybe Erdogan promised to manufacture some dirt on Joe. Most likely, Trump just wanted out.

 

[ngatimozart]

Don't think a threat to pull out of NATO was the issue, Turkey isn't worth much with Erdogan in charge and his restrictions on Incirlik reduce its usefulness. Besides, Trump isn't much of a NATO fan. Maybe Erdogan promised to manufacture some dirt on Joe. Most likely, Trump just wanted out.

Like I said above, there has to be something in it for Trump, but who knows what. Anyway article on his decision to pull out an backs up my assertion about his ignoring advisers. Defying Pentagon, Trump Endorses Turkish Operation in Syria . One statement in that did raise concerns for me was the Kurdish claim that Turkey will strike for Damascus, which would put it on a head on collision course with both Russia and Iran. If Erdogan thinks that he could invoke Clause 5 of the NATO Treaty then, he'd be somewhat mistaken, because he would be the aggressor.

 

[Black Jack Shellac]

Like I said above, there has to be something in it for Trump, but who knows what. Anyway article on his decision to pull out an backs up my assertion about his ignoring advisers. Defying Pentagon, Trump Endorses Turkish Operation in Syria . One statement in that did raise concerns for me was the Kurdish claim that Turkey will strike for Damascus, which would put it on a head on collision course with both Russia and Iran. If Erdogan thinks that he could invoke Clause 5 of the NATO Treaty then, he'd be somewhat mistaken, because he would be the aggressor.

I am wondering if he isn't doing this as a distraction from his other difficulties. He has a history of doing something stupid whenever he is up to his eyeballs in poop. The Senate Republicans are not even supporting him on this one.

Republicans deliver rare rebuke of Trump

Usually he would do something internal to the USA though, so as to attract more media attention away from his ails.

 

[Pentaprism]

One statement in that did raise concerns for me was the Kurdish claim that Turkey will strike for Damascus, which would put it on a head on collision course with both Russia and Iran. If Erdogan thinks that he could invoke Clause 5 of the NATO Treaty then, he'd be somewhat mistaken, because he would be the aggressor.

It certainly would put the Cat amongt the Pigeons if they made a drive on Damascus! But I doubt Russia will allow that to happen, they have already built at least one new Crossing for the Euphrates - Russian Special Forces open new Euphrates crossing between SDF, SAA lines: photos

So if the Americans move out altogether I expect Russia is planning to move blocking troops to the Eastern Bank of the Euphrates to check Turkish progression to the South. We may see more River Crossings developed to facilitate this. Russia and Turkey will negotiate together and a line will be drawn somewhere in the sand to mark where the Turkish Area of Control finishes and the Syrian/Russian commences.

Note the Russians have already been beaten to the Oilfields once by the Americans and will be insisting the line is somewhere north of that area. If any Russian Commander lets the Turks beat them to the Oilfields he may be taking a long holiday in a very miserable place.

 

[StingrayOZ]

I think Trump is just interested in getting out of Syria. While there is plenty of criticism to put on Trump, Syria, really isn't his fault. He hasn't shown any particular interest in the conflict there. I think Turkey offered a way out for the US and Trump took that, saw he could spin it as a positive for the US, and lets face it, Syria is just one of many problems the US is facing in the Middle East, and its not the best funded, clearest, biggest or most understandable one. As for the Kurds, well, how can the US support both Turkey and the Kurds, when they both want different things? The Kurds unfortunately were an ally of convenience, and are poor, and Turkey has been a US ally for close to a century and are one of the more powerful, stable on coherent in the region. The best the US can probably do is to leave and have some sort of peace document or arrangement in place (which is likely to be broken, but then its not the US's fault, others broke the peace etc).

I think Turkeys aims are more about:

• Relocating the millions of Syrian refugees back into Syria
• Pushing Kurds away from the Turkish border

I don't think those aims are highly incompatible with the Russians and the Syrian administration. Particularly if the Turks are going to fight the Kurds to do it, save them doing it (all).

However Turkey has had most of its more sensible elements purged out so its entirely possible this is going to get out of hand. Elements in Syria also won't be happy about this.

 

[Feanor]

It certainly would put the Cat amongt the Pigeons if they made a drive on Damascus! But I doubt Russia will allow that to happen, they have already built at least one new Crossing for the Euphrates - Russian Special Forces open new Euphrates crossing between SDF, SAA lines: photos

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-special-forces-open-new-euphrates-crossing-between-sdf-saa-lines-photos/

I'm not sure where you're getting these ideas. Look at where Turkey is going in to Syria, then look at where Damascus it. Not to mention that Turkey has been negotiating with Russia for quite some time regarding setting up a Turkish area of control in northern Syria. It even appears that Russia has been leveraging the threat of Turkish invasion against the Kurds in negotiations between them and Assad. It's most likely the case that Russia has tacitly signed off the Turkish move, possibly as an exchange for their own recent push in Northern Hama, and southern Idlib.

So if the Americans move out altogether I expect Russia is planning to move blocking troops to the Eastern Bank of the Euphrates to check Turkish progression to the South. We may see more River Crossings developed to facilitate this. Russia and Turkey will negotiate together and a line will be drawn somewhere in the sand to mark where the Turkish Area of Control finishes and the Syrian/Russian commences.

The line has most likely already been drawn.

Note the Russians have already been beaten to the Oilfields once by the Americans and will be insisting the line is somewhere north of that area. If any Russian Commander lets the Turks beat them to the Oilfields he may be taking a long holiday in a very miserable place.

This is rather silly. Situations like this are not handled by military commanders but primarily decided by politicians. And the incident you refer to in Eastern Syria, involved Russian PMCs in the service of Syrian interests, not a Russian drive for the oil fields. Even the strike against those targets was cleared with Russian military command, prior to commencement. And commanders are certainly not sent on a "long holiday in a very miserable place". I'm not sure what Cold War propaganda flick your information comes from but it's just not accurate.

 

[Feanor]

Like I said above, there has to be something in it for Trump, but who knows what. Anyway article on his decision to pull out an backs up my assertion about his ignoring advisers. Defying Pentagon, Trump Endorses Turkish Operation in Syria . One statement in that did raise concerns for me was the Kurdish claim that Turkey will strike for Damascus, which would put it on a head on collision course with both Russia and Iran. If Erdogan thinks that he could invoke Clause 5 of the NATO Treaty then, he'd be somewhat mistaken, because he would be the aggressor.

Is this new though? Trump has been pushing to pull out of Syria for quite some time, and has made announcements to that effect in the past. This time he's actually doing it, but arguably this is a case of consistent policy, pursued against the interests of the established US institutions (Pentagom,State Dept. etc.) He might be badly wrong in doing so, but his position or his actions shouldn't be a surprise. He's said that the US is wasting resources there, and given the success of Russia, Iran, and Assad, in Syria, despite US efforts, he might not be wrong.

 

[ngatimozart]

Is this new though? Trump has been pushing to pull out of Syria for quite some time, and has made announcements to that effect in the past. This time he's actually doing it, but arguably this is a case of consistent policy, pursued against the interests of the established US institutions (Pentagon, State Dept. etc.) He might be badly wrong in doing so, but his position or his actions shouldn't be a surprise. He's said that the US is wasting resources there, and given the success of Russia, Iran, and Assad, in Syria, despite US efforts, he might not be wrong.

Yep, but I am thinking that we are making a mistake by assessing Trump through the prism of politics as we have with previous Presidents, since JFK, who all have been professional pollies before entering the White House. Trump isn't, he doesn't follow the rules, he doesn't listen to advisers, is transactional, his personality is somewhat different to the normal pollie, it being far more egocentric / egotistical than your average pollie, and IMHO, he makes Gen Douglas MacArthur look positively humble. So I am still asking myself what did Trump himself get out of this, because he is rarely consistent due to his alleged short attention span.

 

[Pentaprism]

I'm not sure where you're getting these ideas. Look at where Turkey is going in to Syria, then look at where Damascus it.

It was far from my idea! I was quoting Ngatimozart who was quoting some Kurdish Spokesman I believe. Personally I don't think there is a Snowflakes chance in Hell the Turks will drive on Damascus. They are not even effectively stopping the Syrians/Russians moving into Idlib. But it would be an interesting development if it happened.

This is rather silly. Situations like this are not handled by military commanders but primarily decided by politicians. And the incident you refer to in Eastern Syria, involved Russian PMCs in the service of Syrian interests, not a Russian drive for the oil fields.

This comment was a bit tongue in cheek but my point is that the Russians/Syrians will definitely want control of those Oil Fields and will quickly move to secure them if and when the US withdraw from that area. Syria is sorely short of Oil and are having problems sourcing it from their Iranian Allies. And I wasn't referring to the PMC incident but the fact that the US backed SDF beat them to the Oilfields in the first place when both the SAA & the SDF were driving towards the Oilfields from different directions against ISIS.

 

[John Fedup]

Yep, but I am thinking that we are making a mistake by assessing Trump through the prism of politics as we have with previous Presidents, since JFK, who all have been professional pollies before entering the White House. Trump isn't, he doesn't follow the rules, he doesn't listen to advisers, is transactional, his personality is somewhat different to the normal pollie, it being far more egocentric / egotistical than your average pollie, and IMHO, he makes Gen Douglas MacArthur look positively humble. So I am still asking myself what did Trump himself get out of this, because he is rarely consistent due to his alleged short attention span.

What Trump got could be as simple as a new talking point for his base. Look guys, I got us out of Obama's mess. It will please his base support but it also could erode the blind Republican support in the US senate, something that may be his undoing wrt impeachment. Wishfull thinking perhaps.