The Current Conflict In Syria

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Can you elaborate on this? I see sentiment such as this expressed on DT regularly, but I feel I'm missing something. Specifically vis-a-vis NATO, what has Erdogan done to make him so worthless?But is NATO simply an appendage of the US? If not, then what exactly is the issue with Erdogan and NATO specifically?
Erdogan is perceived as moving Turkey from a secular state to a Islamic fundamentalist state with him as the supreme leader. This can be disputed but his consolidation of power can't be dismissed and Turkish democracy is under threat. Although Turkey previously supported Western logistical operations in the ME such support now is very doubtful. Ongoing spats with Greece and the threat to dump refugees into Europe add to the anti-Erdogan sentiment.



What has the West done for Turkey lately?
Not much since Erdogan changed course. The biggest objection Turkey has is the failure to enter the EU. I am guessing the European opposition to membership was mostly economic (fear of wages collapsing) and probably some anti-Muslim sentiment. The S-400/F-35 issue is really a US consideration and I will leave it to others to weigh in on whether this was a significant risk (I assume it would be, who knows what the Russians would offer him for experimentation on how these two pieces of kit actually go head to head?
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
What has Kurdish do that make's them more valuable then Turkey ?
Just help US in fighting ISIS hardly makes them more valuable than Turkey.
Ten thousand Kurds dead instead of ten thousand US troops fighting ISIS, a cruel way to express value, nevertheless a fact that IMHO offers more value than anything Erdogan is offering (maybe he is investigating Biden which would make him more valuable in Trump's eyes).

Despite some grumbling from EU on Turkey let's some Syrian refugees to Europe, well Turkey also manage to hold close to four million of them inside Turkish territory. If they don't do it..those refugees will floaded EU's street. That alone makes many European NATO still valued Turkey.
This is an issue for sure but trying to blackmail Europe this way might very well backfire. The Kurds are holding 10,000 ISIS prisoners, perhaps Erdogan might have a migration problem of his own.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Erdogan is perceived as moving Turkey from a secular state to a Islamic fundamentalist state with him as the supreme leader. This can be disputed but his consolidation of power can't be dismissed and Turkish democracy is under threat. Although Turkey previously supported Western logistical operations in the ME such support now is very doubtful. Ongoing spats with Greece and the threat to dump refugees into Europe add to the anti-Erdogan sentiment.
This doesn't seem like enough to turn around and say that Turkey is suddenly now not valuable as a NATO member. The spat with Greece is decades old, and the refugee question is a legitimate concern. While strictly speaking refugees have a right to flee to the first country of safety, Turkey is definitely stretched thin supporting this many refugees, and asking the EU to help support the refugee effort is a legitimate solution in my opinion. Especially considering that 1) many of the refugees would likely end up in EU countries otherwise, 2) EU nations are part of the conflict in Syria and arguably contribute to the situation (they're obviously not the main cause) and 3) the EU has giant economic resources to draw upon compared to just Turkey by itself.

Based on this, either Turkey was never all that valuable in NATO, or it's still more or less as valuable as before. Some qualms about US efforts in the Middle East, and a tricky situation with several million refugees don't look to me like a situation where Turkey is suddenly useless. There's also the question of how removing Turkey from NATO would solve any of those issues. It's not like Turkey will suddenly increase their involvement in logistical support for US&Co. efforts in the Middle East. And kicking them out of NATO and shutting down dialogue on the refugee situations would likely cause them to allow more refugees through to the EU.

Not much since Erdogan changed course. The biggest objection Turkey has is the failure to enter the EU. I am guessing the European opposition to membership was mostly economic (fear of wages collapsing) and probably some anti-Muslim sentiment. The S-400/F-35 issue is really a US consideration and I will leave it to others to weigh in on whether this was a significant risk (I assume it would be, who knows what the Russians would offer him for experimentation on how these two pieces of kit actually go head to head?
Honestly I would be more concerned with Israel when it comes to leaking US tech to Russia. One of the "incidents" with a Russian UAV in Israeli airspace looked an awful lot like a 2-sided test of weapons and EW. If Israel is indeed allowing Russia to conduct those kinds of experiments against the Patriot systems and F-15s involved, that would be very alarming.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This doesn't seem like enough to turn around and say that Turkey is suddenly now not valuable as a NATO member. The spat with Greece is decades old, and the refugee question is a legitimate concern.
I respectively disagree. Erdogan is turning off Europe and certainly fear of Islam doesn't help. Turkey is bearing an unfair share of the refugee burden but it isn't like Europe hasn't been helping out financially and with some immigration. The ME description Trump uses is not unwarranted. Where are the open doors in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, or Egypt? Why is it only Western countries provide money and refuge? Now I agree some of the $hit going on was a result of Western policies to some extent (exception Iraq which was a US cluster f&*%). Expecting the West to help out endlessly as ME create their own problems is getting pretty tired.


Honestly I would be more concerned with Israel when it comes to leaking US tech to Russia. One of the "incidents" with a Russian UAV in Israeli airspace looked an awful lot like a 2-sided test of weapons and EW. If Israel is indeed allowing Russia to conduct those kinds of experiments against the Patriot systems and F-15s involved, that would be very alarming.
Agree, if true, even the Donald-Benny bromance (might even be a threesome with Putin) could save Israel from the wrath of the US Congress.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The Kurdish storey resonates in the West.
Turkey and Iraq’s historical genocide, a fiercely independent people, dispossessed, whose homeland was carved up by foreigners along arbitrary lines, all this ensures a sympathetic response from those without “skin in the game”
Add to this the recent stellar support against ISIS, the withdrawal of US forces and the Turkish action along the border seems a betrayal.

The realpolitik however is that a Kurdish homeland will not happen. They are not important enough to disrupt the status quo between Turkey and her Arab neighbours and both their relationships with the US, Russia, Britain, France and Germany.

It remains to be seen whether Turkey confines its actions to the border regions where it sees a an opportunity to remove the Kurdish irritant. If it goes further and tries to advance Ottoman influence in greater Syria I believe there will be a different reaction.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Turks, with support from proxy fighters, are moving to surround Tell Abyad, a significant border town. Bombings, shellings, and smaller incursions, are occurring at various points of the Turkish-Syrian border, but the Kurds have also fired back into Turkey. Civilian casualties have occurred from both sides.

Операция "Peace Spring". День 2

Overall, the Kurds are not in a great spot. Really only two players can decisively stop Turkey, Russia or the US. And since the US is the one allowing this, their only bet is to try and make nice with Assad. But the position of the Syrian government has been a tough one for quite some time; reintegration into Syria proper.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It remains to be seen whether Turkey confines its actions to the border regions where it sees a an opportunity to remove the Kurdish irritant. If it goes further and tries to advance Ottoman influence in greater Syria I believe there will be a different reaction.
And therein lies the issue, because Erdogan has made known his vision of resurrecting the Ottoman empire, with some suggesting that he sees himself as Sultan Recep I, the first of his line. Does Erdogan's ego allow him to draw the line at remaining within the border regions? Or will it induce him to drive on towards Damascus?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Can you elaborate on this? I see sentiment such as this expressed on DT regularly, but I feel I'm missing something. Specifically vis-a-vis NATO, what has Erdogan done to make him so worthless? He certainly has opposed US foreign policy in the Middle East, pursuing what he considers to be Turkey's interests. But is NATO simply an appendage of the US? If not, then what exactly is the issue with Erdogan and NATO specifically?
It's Erdogan and how he's acted as Prime Minister and later as President, changing the political, judicial and basic rights landscapes within Turkey, and how that has impacted upon the region and the capabilities of NATO. It has been long suspected that he was turning a blind eye to Daesh & other terrorist groups cross border smuggling ops of oil, money, arms, people, etc. He's also gutted the Turkish military using trumped up charges, which has significantly reduced the quality of the leadership of the military, and that impacts upon NATO.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
The existential threat to Europe is not Erdogan’s behaviour in Northern Syria, it’s his threat, aired this am, that if the Europeans complain too loudly he will let loose the 3.5 million refugees living in Turkey and point them towards Europe. This would have a catastrophic effect on their, the Europeans, social cohesion.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
remains to be seen whether Turkey confines its actions to the border regions where it sees a an opportunity to remove the Kurdish irritant.
My suspect Turkey has make deal with Russian that whenever US pull away from Kurdish area (this gave unofficial green light to Turkey to make a move on Kurds in their border), Turkey will make buffer zone while Russian and Damascus will make a move on rest of Kurdish holds.

That's why I said the Kurds getting greedy on their momentum. They should keep the area they already hold, but don't take any action toward Turkey Kurds populated area..When that happen, it's just matter of time Turks uses that as 'reason' to make a move toward them.
Kurds don't make smart move as they're asking on two front fights with Turks and Syrian Government.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It's Erdogan and how he's acted as Prime Minister and later as President, changing the political, judicial and basic rights landscapes within Turkey, and how that has impacted upon the region and the capabilities of NATO. It has been long suspected that he was turning a blind eye to Daesh & other terrorist groups cross border smuggling ops of oil, money, arms, people, etc. He's also gutted the Turkish military using trumped up charges, which has significantly reduced the quality of the leadership of the military, and that impacts upon NATO.
Some of the evidence that leaked out during this conflict suggests more then just turning a blind eye. The only problem is that other US allies or "allies" if you will (client states really) have behaved in similar ways... on gutting the Turkish military, do you mean after or before the coup attempt? That was one messy situation. Iirc they almost got him in that attempt, and from his reaction it seems like he at least felt that the US was if not responsible, must have known and been somewhat sympathetic to it. I think this explains very well his policy shifts.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

Tell Abyad is almost completely surrounded. There is one road leading out still under Kurdish control, but the road is under fire so using it as a supply route is questionable. A second pocket is being formed around the border town of Resulayn. So far the Turks have been successful, but these are relatively small border towns. I remember how long it took them to pick and prod at Al-Bab against ISIS after moving across the border relatively quickly.

Таль-Абьяд отрезан

EDIT: More updates.

The Turkish push continues without decisive results. Casualties are mounting but the scale of the fighting is relatively small. Relatively. Meanwhile it looks like some of the Arab groups within the SDF might be willing to side with the Kurds.

Операция "Peace Spring". День 3

Also, allegedly a Turkish but possibly a Kurdish artillery strike hit a US-French base near Kobani. At the least two French soldiers were wounded, greater casualties are possible.

Турки обстреляли американскую базу

It looks like even Trump might be getting on board with anti-Turkish sanctions. This seems like a very strange way to behave, letting the Turks conduct their operation on the one hand but punishing them for it on the other. I think it highlights US domestic politics spilling over into the international arena. On the table, among other things, is a ban on arms sales to Turkey.

Трамп дал Минфину полномочия ввести санкции против турецкого правительства
Сенатор США выступил за введение эмбарго на поставки вооружений Турции

EDIT2: It looks like EU sanctions are coming as well. Norway, Finland, and the Netherlands have already halted issuing export licenses for arms exports to Syria. France says next week they will discuss EU-wide sanctions against Turkey.

Реакция стран-членов ЕС на военную операцию Турции в Сирии
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

The Turks have take Ras al-Ayn and are storming Tell Abyad. Additionally a number of mobile groups are moving around the M-4 highway, and there are reports of killing civilians. However it looks like there won't be a major battle at this point. The Kurds only have light screens of infantry. Possibly they plan on concentrating their defense around major urban centers, but given their deal with the Syrians, it's also possible that they won't put up much of a fight at all.

Операция "Peace Spring". День 4
Северная Сирия. 13.10.2019

The Kurds have apparently struck a deal with the Syrian government, and Syrian troops are already moving towards Manbij, as US troops withdraw.The information we're getting suggests that the Syrians will be taking a chunk of territory around Manbij and Kobani, splitting the Idlib and Afrin areas of Turkish control off from their forces around the north east. Russia appears to have been involved in the negotiations and the US was asked for permission by the Kurds. It appears that the Kurds may be getting limited self-government in exchange for surrendering militarily to Assad, but what territories the Syrians are taking and will remain with the Turks remains to be seen. There are even reports of police check points changing hands around Qamishly. It also appears that a Syrian column moving towards Raqqa hit an IED.

The Syrians have also taken Tabqa, the airbase, the city, and the dam, and the French have also announced their withdrawal.

Курды заключили сделку с Асадом
Операция "Peace Spring". День 5
Гонка за Манбидж
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1228600
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5347055.html

If you look at the map in the link, the orange circles are locations where SAA and NDF forces were spotted inside Kurdish controlled area, suggesting that the size of territory to be handed over to Assad represents most of the currently held territory, including those much valued eastern oil fields.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5348024.html

Some photos of the Turks and their proxies in Syria.

https://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/3233129.html
https://vk.com/milinfolive?z=album-123538639_267609682

There are reports tat 850 ISIS fighters and family members have escaped from Kurdish custody. Thousands more are still in their hands.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5345002.html

Civilians in Hasake are celebrating the hand-over of the city to the Syrians.

https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_1228749

Russia has allegedly set up a no-fly zone over Manbij and Kobani.

https://diana-mihailova.livejournal.com/3989041.html
 

Firn

Active Member
I was surprised by the speed of the agreement between the SDF and Damascus, however the pressure to act was not only high on the discarded Kurds. While a decently working Kurdish-dominated entity can be seen as threat through Turkish nationalist eyes we can not know how far in many senses Erdogan wants to go and so can't Assad.

If we look at the operations and situation in Afrin and Idlib and the broader role Turkey played in the last years the Syrian regime can certainly not be certain that areas taken by Turkish troops and their supported militias will be returned to Syrian rule anytime soo. Sufficiently manned by various, mostly Islamist groups and supported by Turkish forces and assets they would prove a very tough nut to crack for a SyAA depleted by so many years of conflict and losses. One of the worst scenarios from Assads point of view must be Turkish influence or even control of potentially millions of anti-regime Sunni Arabs, augmented by re-settlements and anti-Assad militias.

So Assad will want to stop further territorial gains by the Turkish-led forces but it is unclear if they can do it militarily and at what cost. I think there is little doubt that SDF-forces are needed in any serious confrontation, possibly integrating them in combat groups. So the YPG morped with augmentations into the SDF and now into parts of the SyAA, but under an unknown degree of Assad control.

In the long run some sort of Kurdish autonomy might actually be positive for the long term survival of Assads regime which is relies internally heavily on loyal minorities which fear Sunni Arab dominance. With moderation almost all gone through the long years of bitter conflict and all too many reports about brutal repression it will be hard to see much faith put into large swaths of the Syrian population. As long as the Kurds have to fear the Turkish agenda they might prove to be a source of military manpower and political support. Of course this also carries considerable risk for the Kurds, as well as some for Assad but they might very well need each other for the time being and perhaps decades to come.
 

Firn

Active Member
On the strictly military side of things the manner in which the US left has certainly helped to give the incursions at least tactical if not operational surprise. Turkish patrolling presence plus the long term surveillance plus the connections with Islamist groups have given Turkey certainly very considerable intelligence. So currently the attacker has the almost all the advantages from force concentration, intelligence, planning, surprise, heavy weapon support, air power and so forth.

The SDF on the other hand were increasingly used to fight in very close cooperation with Western special forces with enabled them to tap into the great strengths of modern military might and profit from it's force-multipliers against increasingly less conventially capable Daesh. Clearly they have to adapt again to overcome and will need some time to reorganize and redeploy. So I guess we will see mostly delaying actions for the time being even if mobile operations will not be easy under the gaze of Turkish airpower. A no-flight zone enforced by Russia would clearly help the SDF a lot.

So we should not be surprised by the decently rapid gains but also not think that things will continue like that. We don't know how many and how well-trained militias Turkey can send and we don't know where the culmination points of the invasion could be. We don't know how many assets Assad can muster and how the non-Kurdish parts of the SDF will behave. The degree of Russian support if any is also open. Time will tell, but I don't think that Turkey will be able to establish a secure long-term control of much of north-eastern Syria.
 
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Firn

Active Member
So just a quick glance on the economic side of issue. After a long period of relative stability and economic growth under the AKP, if not necessarily only due to it's policies the economy has suffered from various problems, among them inflation, bad credits, foreign currency exposure, vulnerable banks, a temporary fall in tourism and so forth. EU and US sanctions against this NATO partner could depending on their extent greatly harm the economy further. Clever crisis management might limit the damage but there is no doubt, as the Russian and the Iranian example have shown, that Western sanctions bite economies deeply over the short but more importantly over the long run.

But even without proper sanctions the Turkish economy will be negatively impacted by a larger military intervention. The Lira and the bonds are once again under pressure after a longer period of stabilization and this in a world economy which has been shaken by a lack of global demand and trade wars. Turkey is one of countries which suffer capital flight and lack of credit and investment when safety is premium.

So while the political outfall of any economic crisis caused in part by the military aggression and fear of Western sanctions or even just neglect is unknown the Turkish incursions are also risky for Erdogan. He can wrap himself once more into a Turkish flag and use the Kurdish other as political boosts but we have seen already in local elections that a bad economy is bad for the AKP.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There are high level meetings between Turkish and Russian officials on-going. I doubt this is going to be about a conflict between the Turkish militias and the SAA, much less the Turks themselves. I think there are pre-discussed lines, with some room for movement, but the fundamentals are probably already decided. Though I suppose one or the other could get overly ambitious.
 

Firn

Active Member
Just some thoughts about the current state and possible developments, I had little time to check much what happened in the meantime.

I think it is well known how stretched the SAA has been in the last years and it's increasing reliance on a restricted number of actually Syrian units capable of offensive action.The loss of Palmyra was an good example of what could happen if the leadership shifted the limited amount of decently well organized, trained and led troops with it's supporting assets to another are of operation. A fairly low quality melange of shifted local militias, third-tier elements with some decent assets were quickly overrun by a rapid and aggressive IS counter-offensive with had mobilized with speed and skill.

With a decreased availability of Hezbollah and "Iranian" (partly Afghan) boots on the ground the regime had to chose it's strategic targets and where to concentrate forces with care. Perhaps more importantly it had to balance to which degree it could strip more tranquil areas of manpower. Offensives have been pushed forward leaning heavily on firepower and air support organized and executed to a large degree through Russian assets and personnel. The model is actually roughly comparable to the way ISIS was pushed back in Iraq and Syria with Western support. There are also some parallels to the German way to help the Franco coup in Spain, bringing in air mobility, air power, firepower, planning and communications.

As things are happening fast and a large part of the better Syrian units have been concentrated against Idlib and not too far away from the SDF-held areas west of the Euphrates I suspect that some serious fighting power could be shifted into said areas. East of it the central northern area will see at first mostly lower class light infantry quickly motored and perhaps airlifted towards the Turkish pushes. Movement on the streets will be hampered by the tens of thousands of fleeing civilians. Russian presence in the air will be important to monitor the situation, including the traffic and to deter attacks against said movements. Don't know how well it will play out.

What we can expect in all areas imperiled by the advances is a switch of patches and flags, with the Syrian national flag popping up all over. I would not be surprised if the troops bussed in are bringing a large number of them, perhaps with some Russian ones as well. As said before first the PKK transformed partly into the YPG, then the YPG was augmented and developed into the SDF and now we have the SDF shifting to some degree into the SAA. Especially in the East the boots of the SAA will be for the time being be the old SDF.

While Turkey and Russia will have some high-level talks the rapid developments on the ground, the tendency of operational success leading strategic considerations, the use of militias and not closely integrated groups, some resulting plausible deniability, the transformation of the SDF and the general confusion will leave plenty of scope for clashes on the ground if military history is any guide...
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian troops have appeared in Manbij, including inside the former US base.

Манбидж наш
Wall

Footage of SAA forces in northern Raqqa province, the town of Ayn-Issa.

Wall

T-62Ms moving towards SDF controlled areas, likely part of the 5th SAA Army Corps.

Wall

Meanwhile the US is withdrawing its nukes from Turkey.

Интересные дела

The US has passed sanctions against the Turkish MinDef and Ministry of Energy.

США ввели санкции против Минобороны и Минэнерго Турции за наступление в Сирии и готовят новые
 
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