The Current Conflict In Syria

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
Apparently the F-117A is back in action, with reports that 4 of them deployed to the Middle East, possibly due to their ability to carry larger munitions internally.

Американские самолеты F-117A снова развертывались на Ближнем Востоке
The above claim about the F-117 I would consider dubious at best. It is believed that a few examples have been periodically flown in Nevada in the years since the F-117 started to be retired (2007) but the idea of flying four units halfway around the world to resume operations... Particularly since they had been replaced by newer, more capable all-around aircraft in those roles over a decade ago.

Also, if memory serves some of the components utilized in the F-117 were sourced from aircraft that were in-service at the time of design and had been subsequently retired. This led to a scarcity of parts which increased the costs and difficulty in keeping the F-117 in operational condition, beyond the already existing difficulties maintaining the faceted aircraft skin. Between the increasing difficulties and costs associated with sustaining an operational F-117 fleet, and the entry into service of the F-22 which was able to carry out the strike/attack mission of the F-117 as well as air superiority and was easier to sustain...
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
This link discusses the possibility that F-117s might have been deployed to Syria in 2017, mainly for its ability to drop 2000 lb LGB on moving targets, something that wasn’t possible for current jets until recently apparently. Also, GPS jamming is a problem in Syria. The link does stress there is no confirmation that such missions took place.

Let's Talk About The Rumor That F-117s Have Flown Missions In The Middle East Recently
My reading of that Drive article was that it was the F-117's ability to self-designate LGB targets in contested airspace that might have justified returning a small number of F-117's to active duty. The article also noted that, if this was actually done it might have been a gov't agency as opposed to a branch of the US armed forces that did it... If this was actually the case, we might not know until some time post-2047.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Yes, I did notice the “other agency” reference. Given the history of the U-2 and SR-71 operations, certainly said other agency may have requested some F-117s but as you say that info will be a longtime coming.:D
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates.

It looks like ISIS is almost done. The SDF, with US help, is crushing their last pocket. Trump is already making promises about this ending any minute.

Конец Халифата
Трамп пообещал уничтожить «последний оплот» ИГ в Сирии «к вечеру»
Последний лагерь

There is unconfirmed information that at least 2 Russian military officers are missing in Syria, potentially dead. Official commentary is lacking.

Русская служба Би-би-си: в Сирии попал в засаду УАЗ с российскими офицерами, их судьба неизвестна

The Mi-28NM has deployed to Syria. This comes on top of recent squabbles over the pricing on the Mi-28NM, and currently represents the most advanced Russian attack helicopter.

Вертолет Ми-28НМ в Сирии

Another Orlan-10 UAV fell in Hama province. Note the type has a relatively low number of flights, before running out of service life, and in Syria they're being used 3-5 times as long as they're supposed to be. Consequently incidents like this are common.

«Орлан-10»

An interesting interview on the subject of ISIS international relations, showing how close they came to being a functional state and the extent of their relationship with their neighbors.

The ISIS Ambassador to Turkey - Homeland Security Today

EDIT: Footage of the fighting at Boguz. There are reports of thousands of dead ISIS fighters, and their families. Warning; extremely graphic images.

Бои под Богузом. 22.03.2019
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
If correct, that puts Erdogan and Turkey in a whole new light and does call into question the validity of their continued membership of NATO.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If correct, that puts Erdogan and Turkey in a whole new light and does call into question the validity of their continued membership of NATO.
I mean... other US allies in the region are likely to be as guilty. And I personally don't believe for a second that the US didn't know. At least US intelligence services, on some level. Information can definitely get lost and distorted on it's way from agency to elected official, but I strongly suspect there are people who knew, and there are people who chose not to know. Allowing people at the top to be "innocent".
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
If correct, that puts Erdogan and Turkey in a whole new light and does call into question the validity of their continued membership of NATO.
Even if this wasn’t totally correct, Erdogan’s actions of late certainly should require cancellation of F-35s. If this story is more or less true then, yes, Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. Same applies to intelligence agents if they gave this $hit a pass, fire their sorry ar$es.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Even if this wasn’t totally correct, Erdogan’s actions of late certainly should require cancellation of F-35s. If this story is more or less true then, yes, Turkey should be kicked out of NATO. Same applies to intelligence agents if they gave this $hit a pass, fire their sorry ar$es.
I would consider the following. The US has made no tangible moves to punish Turkey for their relationship with ISIS. However buying Russian SAMs apparently crosses the line. ;)

There's a well pronounced lack of clarity on ISIS and it's relationship with parts of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, and the more I see how the US is behaving, the more I see what kind of information about ISIS is leaking out, the more convinced I am that something is not right. Something is fishy. Remember the escape of many fighters out of Raqqa? Remember the persistent claims of coalition helos landing in ISIS held territory to evacuate people whose capture would potentially be embarrassing to the west? I wouldn't be surprised if far more incriminating information comes out before this is all done with.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
No doubt more ugly stuff will emerge. Those being helicoptered out could be Saudi scumbags, the same A-Holes who were largely responsible for creating ISIS.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
No doubt more ugly stuff will emerge. Those being helicoptered out could be Saudi scumbags, the same A-Holes who were largely responsible for creating ISIS.
I mean the US is no stranger to hypocrisy, but it would be truly strange to punish Turkey for their ISIS connections while making a robust effort to help the Saudis conceal theirs.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I mean the US is no stranger to hypocrisy, but it would be truly strange to punish Turkey for their ISIS connections while making a robust effort to help the Saudis conceal theirs.
Why would it be strange? Nothing surprises me when it concerns the great game, treasure and oil. Turkey doesn't have any oil and little treasure, whereas the Saudis have plenty of oil and some treasure (by their standards). The great game hasn't changed over the recent centuries, except for the players and the stakes. Oil is a recent (last 100 years) addition and treasure has always been a factor in dealings between nation - states, whether it is openly stated or underlying.
No doubt more ugly stuff will emerge. Those being helicoptered out could be Saudi scumbags, the same A-Holes who were largely responsible for creating ISIS.
How do you know that they are Saudi? For all we know they could be Canuck liberals :p Serious point @John Fedup the leader of Daesh, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is Iraqi. You are just surmising that they are Saudis based on what?
 

Traveller

Member
Why would it be strange? Nothing surprises me when it concerns the great game, treasure and oil. Turkey doesn't have any oil and little treasure, whereas the Saudis have plenty of oil and some treasure (by their standards). The great game hasn't changed over the recent centuries, except for the players and the stakes. Oil is a recent (last 100 years) addition and treasure has always been a factor in dealings between nation - states, whether it is openly stated or underlying.
Question, what is "treasure"? Moving on from Spanish Galleons, my working definition is that which carries significant value. Three points come to mind, until about 2013 Turkey was working on EU membership.This would have been a strategic move for the Turkish economy. This space is worth watching. Then there is Incirlik air base, a Turkish base that the US has access to for NATO related operations. The base can be used by the US for non-NATO operations with Turkish permission. That latter point is a bargaining chip. It's location was strategic in the Cold War due to its proximity to the USSR. It's still strategic because Russia is back on the horizon. The third treasure is the Bosphorous, a choke point for sea trade and foreign naval pivots.

These are just my thoughts and not an expert opinion. However in my humble opinion the neo-Ottoman in Ankara has some capital in the Great Game.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Why would it be strange?
Because the US already has plenty of opponents. Adding Turkey to them unnecessarily is unwise, in my opinion. And without open condemnation and media (corporate and state) involvement this story will die quietly like all the other previous stories about Turkey and ISIS.

Nothing surprises me when it concerns the great game, treasure and oil. Turkey doesn't have any oil and little treasure, whereas the Saudis have plenty of oil and some treasure (by their standards). The great game hasn't changed over the recent centuries, except for the players and the stakes. Oil is a recent (last 100 years) addition and treasure has always been a factor in dealings between nation - states, whether it is openly stated or underlying.
But Turkey is an important player when it comes to controlling treasure and its routes of travel. Would Russia be able to bypass the failure of the South Stream pipeline so easily if the US hadn't alienated Turkey and made it easy for Putin to reach an understanding with Erdogan? Would Turkey be coordinating with Iran on issues like Syria or Iraqi Kurdistan?

How do you know that they are Saudi? For all we know they could be Canuck liberals :p Serious point @John Fedup the leader of Daesh, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is Iraqi. You are just surmising that they are Saudis based on what?
More than that, he is surmising that there even were helicopters, after all the persistent reports notwithstanding, I haven't seen any solid evidence surface, just the claims.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Question, what is "treasure"? Moving on from Spanish Galleons, my working definition is that which carries significant value. Three points come to mind, until about 2013 Turkey was working on EU membership.This would have been a strategic move for the Turkish economy. This space is worth watching. Then there is Incirlik air base, a Turkish base that the US has access to for NATO related operations. The base can be used by the US for non-NATO operations with Turkish permission. That latter point is a bargaining chip. It's location was strategic in the Cold War due to its proximity to the USSR. It's still strategic because Russia is back on the horizon. The third treasure is the Bosphorous, a choke point for sea trade and foreign naval pivots.

These are just my thoughts and not an expert opinion. However in my humble opinion the neo-Ottoman in Ankara has some capital in the Great Game.
A good post and you make some valid points, because I was thinking of treasure as in a nation's Treasury and had in my mind a narrower definition as I was writing that post. I forgot the larger picture which is a mortal sin for someone who studied & worked in geography :(

Interestingly enough according to some, the Treaty of Lausanne expires in four years, however a quick scan of the treaty translation finds no such provision, but I could be wrong. Can Turkey renovate its empire by the end of the Treaty of Lausanne 2023… an article published by the Rawbet Center for Research and Strategic Studies in Jordan, argues that this is the case and that Erdogan is aiming to restore the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan is also arguing for a revision of the Treaty claiming that it is flawed. Erdogan has already displayed the size of his political ego and it would not surprise me that he will attempt to claim tracts of territory from Iraq, including Mosul, Syria, Iran, Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia and Armenia. He has already spoken about his desire to restore the Ottoman Empire to it's former glory.

@Feanor it's a wonder that Vladimir Vladimirovich hasn't had himself crowned Tsar of All The Russias. That way he wouldn't have to concern himself with pesky things like term limits and elections :D This remark makes me wonder if this is Erdogans endgame - have himself crowned / anointed /acclaimed as Padishah (Sultan) of the resurrected Ottoman Empire with the empire's name changed to that of the Erdogan Empire, because he would be the founding Padishah of the new empire.
Because the US already has plenty of opponents. Adding Turkey to them unnecessarily is unwise, in my opinion. And without open condemnation and media (corporate and state) involvement this story will die quietly like all the other previous stories about Turkey and ISIS.
Given the current state of politics in the US, what difference is one more opponent going to make?
More than that, he is surmising that there even were helicopters, after all the persistent reports notwithstanding, I haven't seen any solid evidence surface, just the claims.
Yep, he is but we have to bear in mind that @John Fedup is our pet Canadian so I suppose allowances have to be made :D:p
But Turkey is an important player when it comes to controlling treasure and its routes of travel. Would Russia be able to bypass the failure of the South Stream pipeline so easily if the US hadn't alienated Turkey and made it easy for Putin to reach an understanding with Erdogan? Would Turkey be coordinating with Iran on issues like Syria or Iraqi Kurdistan?
It is and I read something a week or so ago about Erdogan building a canal to the west of the Bosphorus Strait, circumventing the restrictions of the Treaty of Lausanne regarding warships and tonnage through the Bosphorus Straits. I also think that Erdogan has been watching Putin closely and reading his playbook, so I would not be surprised to see Turkish grey men, amongst other things, around the region in the near future. The US and NATO will lose access to Incirlik and other facilities on Turkish soil in time and I think that the S-400 SAM maybe just the start of Turkey acquiring some Russian military equipment.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor it's a wonder that Vladimir Vladimirovich hasn't had himself crowned Tsar of All The Russias. That way he wouldn't have to concern himself with pesky things like term limits and elections :D This remark makes me wonder if this is Erdogans endgame - have himself crowned / anointed /acclaimed as Padishah (Sultan) of the resurrected Ottoman Empire with the empire's name changed to that of the Erdogan Empire, because he would be the founding Padishah of the new empire.
Why crown yourself czar? It would make your position predictable. Why not leave yourself open?

Given the current state of politics in the US, what difference is one more opponent going to make?
It could make a huge difference. It could make very little. But either way it doesn't strike me as a wise move. The US is opposing China in the SCS, Russia in Ukraine, and the Middle East, Iran in the Middle East, Venezuela in Latin America, and now Turkey? A NATO member? Straws, camel's back, etc.

Yep, he is but we have to bear in mind that @John Fedup is our pet Canadian so I suppose allowances have to be made :D:p

It is and I read something a week or so ago about Erdogan building a canal to the west of the Bosphorus Strait, circumventing the restrictions of the Treaty of Lausanne regarding warships and tonnage through the Bosphorus Straits. I also think that Erdogan has been watching Putin closely and reading his playbook, so I would not be surprised to see Turkish grey men, amongst other things, around the region in the near future. The US and NATO will lose access to Incirlik and other facilities on Turkish soil in time and I think that the S-400 SAM maybe just the start of Turkey acquiring some Russian military equipment.
The S-400 is no start. Turkey has bought Russian weapons quite a few times in the past, including Kornet ATGMs, PKM machineguns, and BTR APCs.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears that some in Turkey are overly enthusiastic about the drawing of maps showing "new" Turkish borders that take chunks of territory from their neighbours. I am sure that said neighbours will not be amused with Erdogan's attempt to rebuild the the Ottoman empire.

Turkey’s New Maps Are Reclaiming the Ottoman Empire
It depends on what form that rebuilding takes. Provided Turkey is willing to negotiate in good faith, I can see Russia, Iran, and even Israel, being receptive to working out some sort of arrangement, where Turkey has a limited sphere of influence in those areas. One of the lessons to take away from Russo-Turkish relations on the Syrian question is that both Russia and Turkey seem to be willing to bargain, and thus able to find a middle ground, even if that middle ground comes at the expense of Syria (it's not like Assad is in a position to complain).

For example, if the Iraqi Kurds were to start acting up again, seeking independence, etc. and the Iraqi government, with Iranian allies, did not feel up to the task of pacifying them, I can see the Turks being given access to Iraqi Kurdistan to "deal with the PKK terrorists", in exchange for compromises or concessions elsewhere. If anything Erdogan's real problem is that he needs adequate bargaining chips with which to pay Russia and Iran for the concessions he hopes to get.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It depends on what form that rebuilding takes. Provided Turkey is willing to negotiate in good faith, I can see Russia, Iran, and even Israel, being receptive to working out some sort of arrangement, where Turkey has a limited sphere of influence in those areas. One of the lessons to take away from Russo-Turkish relations on the Syrian question is that both Russia and Turkey seem to be willing to bargain, and thus able to find a middle ground, even if that middle ground comes at the expense of Syria (it's not like Assad is in a position to complain).

For example, if the Iraqi Kurds were to start acting up again, seeking independence, etc. and the Iraqi government, with Iranian allies, did not feel up to the task of pacifying them, I can see the Turks being given access to Iraqi Kurdistan to "deal with the PKK terrorists", in exchange for compromises or concessions elsewhere. If anything Erdogan's real problem is that he needs adequate bargaining chips with which to pay Russia and Iran for the concessions he hopes to get.
From different readings that I have been doing recently, I get the impression that Erdogan means recreating the Ottoman Empire literally, therefore implying taking full physical control of some or all territory of the historical Ottoman Empire that are outside of the current Turkish borders. He certainly has the ego that sees him as being the founding Padishah of a rejuvenated Ottoman Empire. C.f., my post above.
 
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