The Current Conflict In Syria

[Feanor]

It appears that the new S-300s are likely PM1 or even PM2 variants, delivered not from storage but from the 531st Guards Air Defense Regiment, normally located near Murmansk. It appears the unit recently took S-400 deliveries. There is also unconfirmed information that Russian MoD Il-62s flew in crews for the S-300s. Whether they're there to train the Syrians, man the systems themselves, or a mix of the two, remains a mystery.

Note this means we are talking about a Russian military version of the system, with Russian IFFs, and other potentially sensitive equipment. I doubt Russia really trusts the Syrians that much, and the choice of systems suggests that at least part of the operators will be Russian. It would also make sense for Russia to strengthen operational control over Syrian air defense in light of the recent incident.

Россия отправила в Сирию комплексы С-300 из Заполярья
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/765626.html

 

[STURM]

What he says is often dependent on who he last talked to.

I doubt relations will take a turn for the worst. Both countries need each other. For the U.S, Saudi forms a key pillar in keeping things [from a U.S. perspective] 'stable' in the Middle East. A downturn in relations will impact several areas including Syria. Despite whatever issues both may have; both seek to do away with Assad and weaken Iran. If Trump is listening to his advisors; no doubt there will back channel communications to reassure the Saudis. Maybe what Trump said was really meant for a domestic audience and maybe the Saudis understand that.

It appears that the new S-300s are likely PM1 or even PM2 variants

Syrian War Report – October 9, 2018: Syria Got 24 S-300 Launchers, Over 300 Missiles

This source quotes TASS as saying that '24 missile launchers' and '300 surface-to-air missiles' were delivered. Who knows how accurate these numbers are.

 

[Feanor]

I doubt relations will take a turn for the worst. Both countries need each other. For the U.S, Saudi forms a key pillar in keeping things [from a U.S. perspective] 'stable' in the Middle East. A downturn in relations will impact several areas including Syria. Despite whatever issues both may have; both seek to do away with Assad and weaken Iran. If Trump is listening to his advisors; no doubt there will back channel communications to reassure the Saudis. Maybe what Trump said was really meant for a domestic audience and maybe the Saudis understand that.



Syrian War Report – October 9, 2018: Syria Got 24 S-300 Launchers, Over 300 Missiles

This source quotes TASS as saying that '24 missile launchers' and '300 surface-to-air missiles' were delivered. Who know how accurate these numbers are.

It sounds right. A regiment could have 2 or 3 btlns, with 8 TELs per btln. So 24 TELs is about right for a standard Russian air defense regiment.

 

[ngatimozart]

Well things for the Saudis in the US may have just got more difficult with Senators sending a letter to Trump that could result in sanctions against Saudi Arabia.

US senators order Magnitsky probe as Riyadh’s Capitol Hill clout plummets

 

[STURM]

The one thing the Saudis have going for them is that there is a strong pro Saudi lobby in the U.S. and the hardliners/neo-conservatives in the Trump administration will be doing all they can to prevent the Saudis getting any more flak. Given that Saudi and Israel are on friendly terms now, sharing common interests; it won't be surprising if pro Israeli politicians or lobby groups apply pressure to ensure the Saudis only get a slap on the wrist. There has even been suggestions that arms sales be halted. In the unlikely event they are halted; it will only probably be for a brief period; as has been the case with Israel in the past when deliveries are delayed [due to certain actions undertaken by Israel] ; only to be resumed when all the fuss has died down.

The U.S. simply can't afford to lose Saudi. The country forms a key element in Trump's 'coalition of the willing' [to use a cliche]; aimed at weakening Iran and making the region a more 'stable' place. The U.S. has also taken sides in the Sunni/Shia cold war currently being waged; which involves Yemen and Syria.The biggest irony of course is that from a realpolitk perspective; the one country in the region that has the potential to be a much more useful ally to the U.S. is Iran but of course that's never going to happen. There's just too much mutual distrust and for the domestic reasons; the Iranians have been demonised and blamed for almost everything that's wrong in the region. Having the U.S. go hard on Iran also serves the agenda of Iranian hardliners.

Jamal Khashoggi case: All the latest updates

'In comments made by President Donald Trump to an American TV network, the US president indicated the Saudis may have killed the critical Saudi journalist'

'Senator Rand Paul, a long-time critic of the Saudi government, said he'll try to force a vote in the Senate this week blocking US arms sales to Saudi Arabia. He said he wants to end arms shipments if there's "any indication" the Saudis are "implicated in killing this journalist that was critical of them".

'How the disappearance of a journalist and a humiliating remark by Trump shows Saudi Arabia's weakness'

'Saudi strengths and weaknesses may have been long debated but the Kingdom’s vulnerabilities have seldom been so starkly on display as they were last Tuesday because the coincidence of two very different events. Before a rally in Mississippi, President Trump stated – brutally and without qualification – the dependence of the Saudi monarchy on US support and the price it must pay for such backing.'

'It is early days yet but the Khashoggi disappearance has released a torrent of negative publicity about Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This was wholly predictable. It is a curious fact about publicity that horrendous events – like the Saudi-led war in Yemen that has brought five million children to the verge of starvation – has failed to make its way to the top of the international news agenda. The slaughter is too great and the place too distant and ill-reported for most people to take on board and react to the horrors underway there.'

 

[Feanor]

It looks like things are moving again in Syria. Turkey is threatening a border operation against the Kurds, this time against the Rojava enclave. Meanwhile the US has declared they're withdrawing from Syria. This comes despite earlier statements about US intentions on countering Iranian influence in Syria. Leaving aside conspiracy theories, it's likely that the US withdrawal means that the US prefers the Turks over the Kurds as allies. This comes as the Russo-Turkish agreement in Idlib is in poor shape, not politically but practically.

 

[the concerned]

They are right to withdraw their mission was anti Isis only. They were never there to counter Syria/Russia and Iran.

 

[ngatimozart]

They are right to withdraw their mission was anti Isis only. They were never there to counter Syria/Russia and Iran.

Do you really think that was the only reason for the US intervening? Of course it was but more about Syria & Iran and later Russia. Always was. Daesh was just the convenient justification.

 

[the concerned]

It would have been impossible to combat Isis from just the Iraqi side of the border .I also wonder if aircraft deployments will stop as this must be costing a fortune.

 

[Feanor]

It would have been impossible to combat Isis from just the Iraqi side of the border .I also wonder if aircraft deployments will stop as this must be costing a fortune.

Daesh has been effectively gone from the Syria-Jordan border for quite some time now. None the less the US not only maintains a significant presence at At-Tanf, but has bombed pro-Assad forces, not for attacking them, no, simply for getting too close. Were these also anti-ISIS efforts?

I strongly suspect that the timing of the withdrawal says a lot. Russia has used the Turkish-Kurdish conflict to their advantage for some time now, using Erdogan as the boogeyman to put the Kurds in the position of either accepting Assad's conditions, or getting crushed by their neighbor to the north. US resistance to such Turkish moves pisses off the Turks, the eventual surrender pisses of the Kurds. The US needed to pick one, and stick with it (Kurds or Turks). And it looks like, finally, a decision has been made. It remains to be seen whether the Kurds take the opportunity and deal with Assad, or continue to resist and end up under open Turkish occupation.

It's also likely that portions of eastern Syria will get seized by Shiite militias and Russian PMCs. There was a deal signed recently about Syrian oil, that gives Russian companies some very generous privileges not only in oil field currently under government control but including some that are currently in SDF hands. A lot of money and resources were spent to support Assad, it looks like it's time to get some of it back (of course some is already being got back, as the Syrians have signed a few contracts for Russian goods recently).

 

[Twain]

I strongly suspect that the timing of the withdrawal says a lot. Russia has used the Turkish-Kurdish conflict to their advantage for some time now, using Erdogan as the boogeyman to put the Kurds in the position of either accepting Assad's conditions, or getting crushed by their neighbor to the north. US resistance to such Turkish moves pisses off the Turks, the eventual surrender pisses of the Kurds. The US needed to pick one, and stick with it (Kurds or Turks). And it looks like, finally, a decision has been made. It remains to be seen whether the Kurds take the opportunity and deal with Assad, or continue to resist and end up under open Turkish occupation.

I think you are giving way to much credit to trump to think things through enough to pick one side over another on the basis of US objectives in the region. His grasp of foreign policy and strategic issues is very limited to say the least. to add to this, Trump is very isolationist in a military sense. At one time or another he has threatened to withdraw troops from virtually every country that we have a presence in and much of the time his main rationale is the cost. Everything with trump seems to come down to two things, his ego and dollars.

I wouldn't discount this as his motivation.
US approves possible Patriot missile sale to Turkey in bid to block Russian purchase
US approves possible Patriot missile sale to Turkey in bid to block Russian purchase - CNNPolitics

 

[the concerned]

It's not to block the Russian sale it's inclusive of the S400 system.

 

[ngatimozart]

It's not to block the Russian sale it's inclusive of the S400 system.

@the concerned Provide a source for that titbit please.

I would be very interested in your explanation of how the Turks are going to integrate the Patriot system with the S-400 system. We await with bated breath.

 

[the concerned]

I didn't say integrate I said buy asweĺl.

 

[Feanor]

@the concerned Provide a source for that titbit please.

I would be very interested in your explanation of how the Turks are going to integrate the Patriot system with the S-400 system. We await with bated breath.

If I recall correctly, the inability to integrate the S-400 into NATO's airspace control system was one of the original arguments against Turkey's decision. Though of course one can point at Greece with their S-300s and Tors, which seem to be doing just fine.

EDIT: Just so I'm clear, I'm not claiming they're integrated with NATO, just that a NATO member can operate a significant quantity of Russian gear without it being a major problem, at least as far as I can tell.

 

[Feanor]

I think you are giving way to much credit to trump to think things through enough to pick one side over another on the basis of US objectives in the region. His grasp of foreign policy and strategic issues is very limited to say the least. to add to this, Trump is very isolationist in a military sense. At one time or another he has threatened to withdraw troops from virtually every country that we have a presence in and much of the time his main rationale is the cost. Everything with trump seems to come down to two things, his ego and dollars.

I wouldn't discount this as his motivation.
US approves possible Patriot missile sale to Turkey in bid to block Russian purchase
US approves possible Patriot missile sale to Turkey in bid to block Russian purchase - CNNPolitics

This supports my argument. The decision is about not losing Turkey as a Middle Eastern ally. Erdogan has been playing off the Russia-US rivalry in the region, and when the US wouldn't give him what him wants (at least a partial realization of his Ottoman ambitions), he quickly found a common language with Iran and Russia. These moves, withdrawing from Syria and leaving the Kurds to him, selling him Patriot missiles, all point to the US trying to win him back.

 

[John Fedup]

It looks like things are moving again in Syria. Turkey is threatening a border operation against the Kurds, this time against the Rojava enclave. Meanwhile the US has declared they're withdrawing from Syria. This comes despite earlier statements about US intentions on countering Iranian influence in Syria. Leaving aside conspiracy theories, it's likely that the US withdrawal means that the US prefers the Turks over the Kurds as allies. This comes as the Russo-Turkish agreement in Idlib is in poor shape, not politically but practically.

It would seem the US is throwing the Kurds under the bus, the most reliable opposition against ISIS and who did much of the heavy lifting. More great policy from the genius in the Whitehouse, an expert at throwing people under the bus! A lot of very tough fighters who get betrayed, what are the chances this comes back to bite you in the a$$, pretty high IMO. Big gamble appeasing Erdogan, not exactly America’s most reliable ally.

 

[Feanor]

It would seem the US is throwing the Kurds under the bus, the most reliable opposition against ISIS and who did much of the heavy lifting. More great policy from the genius in the Whitehouse, an expert at throwing people under the bus! A lot of very tough fighters who get betrayed, what are the chances this comes back to bite you in the a$$, pretty high IMO. Big gamble appeasing Erdogan, not exactly America’s most reliable ally.

Right. As opposed to the time in Iraq when the US totally backed the Kurds. Against the Iraqis, Iranians, and Turks.

This isn't really new. If the Kurds had a little more foresight, or possibly better centralized leadership, they should have struck a deal with Assad before Erdogan attacked the Afrin enclave. That's when they would have gotten the best terms. And as far as the US leaving, there really is no alternative, short of the US establishing a permanent presence in Syria, and effectively partitioning the country, against (of course) international law, and the US' own stance on territorial integrity (see Georgia, Ukraine). The really interesting thing is what will happen next. I imagine the US will try to extract some promises from Erdogan not to crush the Kurds completely. His currently announced operation is only about security a piece of land along the border, effectively separating Syrian Kurdistan from Turkish Kurdistan. However, in the long run it's likely to be more then that. And without US support, what happens the next time when a hodge-podge column of pro-Assad forces tries to seize an oil field in SDF held territory? With ISIS effectively gone, the rebels all but crushed, and the US out, Assad could gather a large force and push the Kurds at least out of Arab-populated areas. There's even a good chance that some of the locals would welcome the departure of the Kurds, given the traditional Arab-Kurd tensions.

 

[Twain]

This supports my argument. The decision is about not losing Turkey as a Middle Eastern ally. Erdogan has been playing off the Russia-US rivalry in the region, and when the US wouldn't give him what him wants (at least a partial realization of his Ottoman ambitions), he quickly found a common language with Iran and Russia. These moves, withdrawing from Syria and leaving the Kurds to him, selling him Patriot missiles, all point to the US trying to win him back.

Well that's the thing, trump's way of thinking wouldn't go that far. It would begin and end with the patriot missile sale. His thought process wouldn't go so far as to evaluate any long term positives and negatives to having turkey as an ally rather than the kurds. He's done similar things numerous times. He makes decisions based on his "gut feeling" not facts and figures. Trump doesn't care about allies, take a look at the third paragraph of mattis' resignation letter

James Mattis' resignation letter
READ: James Mattis' resignation letter - CNNPolitics



Another factor came to mind too, trump has been getting a lot of flak over campaign promises that he hasn't kept. One of those promises was to "win" in syria and bring the troops home. (take a look at the US press lately over the us/mexico border wall for another example)

Granted neither one of these things may be the reason for the withdrawal but saying he has made a decision to try to ensure turkey is an ally over the long term isn't the way his thought processes work.

 

[John Fedup]

Given all the investigations that will be coming Trump’s way, current and new ones in January, expect more bizarre Trump behaviour to divert attention. Probably won’t work.