The Current Conflict In Syria

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I had always thought that, considering the recent history of the Jewish people in the 19th and 20th Century, they would be very sensitive to the plight and anger of downtrodden peoples.
That is one consideration but given their history "when in doubt hit first and worry about the consequences later" is better than marching off to the shower. If you could easily sort out the killers from the downtrodden, life would be so much easier.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I agree that there is most definitely a certain amount of arrogance there and Israel has complied with few, if any, of the UN resolutions that have been made about their conduct. The good will I had towards them was lost years ago when Sharon got into Cabinet and, IMO, from then on it looked like to me Israel had all the appearances of an apartheid state. I just hope and pray that I am wrong. Whilst many countries (including my own) commit actions that are immoral and reprehensible, I had always thought that, considering the recent history of the Jewish people in the 19th and 20th Century, they would be very sensitive to the plight and anger of downtrodden peoples.
Victims often dream of becoming the executioner. It's an unfortunate pattern.

That is one consideration but given their history "when in doubt hit first and worry about the consequences later" is better than marching off to the shower. If you could easily sort out the killers from the downtrodden, life would be so much easier.
It's a false dichotomy. Israel is powerful enough where their behavior really should be held to a higher standard.

Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports that the Syrian unit responsible for the shoot-down is the 48thair defense regiment, whose commander has allegedly been called to Damascus.

Командир 49-го полка ПВО, ракета которого поразила Ил-20М, уже вызван в Дамаск
 

SolarWind

Active Member
Does that really make it any better? Israeli behavior in the region is despicable. I understand that much of their policy is driven by survival. But the days when they were on the brink of extinction are over. They're a nuclear power, they have one of the most capable fighting forces on the planet, and their strongest neighbors are no longer seeking their destruction. Even Hezbollah is mostly on the defensive these days, their foray into a Syria a desperate move to save Assad. Their closest credible opponent is two countries away, with a laughably weak airforce and a primitive ballistic missile capability.
Nuclear weapons are only good at indiscriminate large scale destruction, and through that, deterrence. They can't ensure security or survival.

They have the support of the US, they flirt with Russia, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're quietly putting out feelers to the Chinese. Their political prostitution is unmatched as far as I can tell, and they're willingness to use force makes Russian behavior in Ukraine look quite pleasant by comparison.
Skillful diplomacy is not the same thing as political prostitution. For that matter, what would you think be a fair definition of political prostitution?

Truth is, Israel has little to no respect for international law, and is willing to commit acts of aggression against any of its neighbors, if it becomes in their interest to do so, and they can get away with it. It's really not surprising they get along so easily with Putin. They speak the same language. Hell, if anything Putin is more subtle about. Of course, he has to be. He doesn't have the US backing him.
Israel has no choice, it disrespects international law only in as much as the international law disrespects Israel. Israel does what it does in order to ensure not just its survival but also security, which any state owes its citizens.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I agree that there is most definitely a certain amount of arrogance there and Israel has complied with few, if any, of the UN resolutions that have been made about their conduct. The good will I had towards them was lost years ago when Sharon got into Cabinet and, IMO, from then on it looked like to me Israel had all the appearances of an apartheid state. I just hope and pray that I am wrong. Whilst many countries (including my own) commit actions that are immoral and reprehensible, I had always thought that, considering the recent history of the Jewish people in the 19th and 20th Century, they would be very sensitive to the plight and anger of downtrodden peoples.
In general, it would be better for mutual international understanding if the "western civilization's guilt" was not projected onto other peoples. If I understand correctly, Israel, in particular, operates on a millennia old principle of eye-for-an-eye.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
It's a false dichotomy. Israel is powerful enough where their behavior really should be held to a higher standard.
This contrast is not false in as far as it is equivalent to the contrast of proaction versus reaction. Additionally, power and security are related but distinct. Israel may be powerful enough, but certainly is not secure enough, and that for obvious reasons.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Nuclear weapons are only good at indiscriminate large scale destruction, and through that, deterrence. They can't ensure security or survival.
They can ensure that for even a nuclear Iran, a strike on Israel is suicidal.

Skillful diplomacy is not the same thing as political prostitution. For that matter, what would you think be a fair definition of political prostitution?
Israel has been the recipient of US aid, military, economic, and diplomatic, on an unprecendented scale. Yet the same Israel has little regard for US regional interests, and at a time when the US is in a confrontation with Russia on multiple fronts, Israel not only doesn't join the US sanctions regime, but instead engages in constant backroom diplomacy with Russia. On the one hand, you could argue that they're recognizing a new geopolitical reality, on the other hand the cooperation of regional players like Turkey and Israel has everything to do with shifting this reality.

Israel has no choice, it disrespects international law only in as much as the international law disrespects Israel. Israel does what it does in order to ensure not just its survival but also security, which any state owes its citizens.
Sorry but the excuse of abstract "security" doesn't justify bombing a neighboring country merely because you don't like whose military bases are there. Given that security is an abstract concept, and is rather difficult to qualify, it just doesn't cut it here.

In general, it would be better for mutual international understanding if the "western civilization's guilt" was not projected onto other peoples. If I understand correctly, Israel, in particular, operates on a millennia old principle of eye-for-an-eye.
No. That would imply direct proportionality between Israel getting hit and Israel hitting back. Except neither Syria nor Iran have hit Syria recently. They've been far too busy fighting ISIS and opposing the US. So what's the eye in exchange for which Israel has been conducting persistent and repetitive strikes into Syria? Again, merely not liking Iranian military presence there doesn't cut it.

This contrast is not false in as far as it is equivalent to the contrast of proaction versus reaction. Additionally, power and security are related but distinct. Israel may be powerful enough, but certainly is not secure enough, and that for obvious reasons.
What happened to an eye for an eye? As for proaction, you're not seriously trying to justify that garbage from the Bush Jr. era about pre-emptive strikes? This is not and has never in modern history been an accepted principle of international law.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
While I have not defined what Israel's security amounts to and have used the term loosely, you must agree that sovereign states systematically and formally define such concepts and keep them classified. In other words, although Israel's security may seem abstract to some, it is in fact very real to Israel.

Israel has been the recipient of US aid, military, economic, and diplomatic, on an unprecendented scale. Yet the same Israel has little regard for US regional interests, and at a time when the US is in a confrontation with Russia on multiple fronts, Israel not only doesn't join the US sanctions regime, but instead engages in constant backroom diplomacy with Russia. On the one hand, you could argue that they're recognizing a new geopolitical reality, on the other hand the cooperation of regional players like Turkey and Israel has everything to do with shifting this reality.
Israel's actions do not jeopardize any US interests, regional or otherwise. If they were, Israel would not be carrying them out. That is simple to see and should be perfectly obvious to anyone who does not take Washington for fools. In general, any speculation on this topic without formal and classified knowledge is just that, speculation.

As regards US and Allies' confrontation with Russia, Israel is too small to play any significant or meaningful part in it, and it is obvious to me that Washington is allowing Israel to see to its own interests so long as they do not interfere with the "big picture".
 
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Preceptor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Israel's actions do not jeopardize any US interests, regional or otherwise. If they were, Israel would not be carrying them out. That is simple to see and should be perfectly obvious to anyone who does not take Washington for fools. In general, any speculation on this topic without formal and classified knowledge is just that, speculation.
Note the bolded portion of the quote, as it is speaking in absolutes and is therefore wrong. In the future do not post in absolutes, since the world does not actually deal in absolutes aside from death and taxes.

Two other points are also important. The first is that Israel is a sovereign state which acts in it's own self-interests. The US can have some influence on Israeli policy, just the Israel can influence US policy, but neither country has control of the other. With regards to acting in it's own self-interests, some of the time that will result in Israel (or the US, or another country for that matter) taking action or exhibiting in-action, which contributes to US interests. There are other times when Israel will take action (or in-action) which is to the detriment of US interests. This is also not speculation, because there are a number of instances which have been publicly documented where the US was advocating a particular position which Israel rejected, before then adopting a policy course opposite of what the US was trying achieve.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, this thread topic is actually about the current conflict in Syria, not Israel. A continued focus on Israel and the internal political discourse therein is OT.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I apologize for speaking in an absolute, it was truly unintentional. I very much appreciate your thoughtful points. I will, however apologetically, make this one very important but obvious last point on this OT, even at the risk of a mod action against me. As can be seen in the case of Israel, there is room for a trusted, valued, and favored ally to disagree with some foreign policy agenda of a politically biased administration, which is a luxury not afforded to many others.

Along the main topic, I strongly believe that the Israeli air force very likely did not carefully think through their actions or fully briefed the administration. The downing of the Russian IL was undoubtedly, at least to me, a complete surprise to Israeli cabinet. The Israeli military messed up on this in a very big way and made a very serious mistake, despite the plausibility and high likelihood of it being unintentional. That said, the missile that downed the plane was truly one of Assad's, the decision to launch was plausibly intentional at the AA battery command level and meant to hurt Israeli-Russian relationship. This event complicates matters in the region, spells huge trouble for Israel, and coincides with the entry of a US Carrier Battle Group into the Mediterranean.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Along the main topic, I strongly believe that the Israeli air force very likely did not carefully think through their actions or fully briefed the administration. The downing of the Russian IL was undoubtedly, at least to me, a complete surprise to Israeli cabinet. The Israeli military messed up on this in a very big way and made a very serious mistake, despite the plausibility and high likelihood of it being unintentional. That said, the missile that downed the plane was truly one of Assad's, the decision to launch was plausibly intentional at the AA battery command level and meant to hurt Israeli-Russian relationship. This event complicates matters in the region, spells huge trouble for Israel, and coincides with the entry of a US Carrier Battle Group into the Mediterranean.
If this is true, we will likely see some consequences for the command of the unit, and possibly for the Assad regime. However, given older SAM systems, and the generally poor coordination of Syrian air defense, I think a genuine mistake is far more likely. If the Russian story of how this happened is correct, then a mistake is likely and understandable (though a sign of the poor state of Syrian air defense).
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
If this is true, we will likely see some consequences for the command of the unit, and possibly for the Assad regime. However, given older SAM systems, and the generally poor coordination of Syrian air defense, I think a genuine mistake is far more likely. If the Russian story of how this happened is correct, then a mistake is likely and understandable (though a sign of the poor state of Syrian air defense).
Israel is apparently going to provide some additional information to Russia regarding the engagement per Reuters. From the linked story, it appears that Israel is stating that the Israeli jets involved in the incident were targeting a Syrian facility which was set to transfer weapons to Hezbollah on behalf of Iran. The article also mentions that Israel claims their jets were already back in Israeli airspace when the IL-20 was shot down.

If that claim is true, then that would strongly suggest to me that the shoot down was the result of deficient competency.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Israel is apparently going to provide some additional information to Russia regarding the engagement per Reuters. From the linked story, it appears that Israel is stating that the Israeli jets involved in the incident were targeting a Syrian facility which was set to transfer weapons to Hezbollah on behalf of Iran. The article also mentions that Israel claims their jets were already back in Israeli airspace when the IL-20 was shot down.

If that claim is true, then that would strongly suggest to me that the shoot down was the result of deficient competency.
A high level Israeli military delegation already visited Moscow and handed over data regarding the incident. The Israeli story and Russian story don't line up. I'm not sure whose is correct, but I don't have a whole lot of trust for public statements from either side. It's possible of course that the Russian story is incomplete, and they don't have all the information, and nobody is intentionally lying. Syrian incompetence, or inherent problems in their system are definitely the culprit, the only question is whether Russia's allegation that the Israelis exploited this in a dangerous manner that put the Russian aircraft in the line of fire is true.
 

Todjaeger

Potstirrer
A high level Israeli military delegation already visited Moscow and handed over data regarding the incident. The Israeli story and Russian story don't line up. I'm not sure whose is correct, but I don't have a whole lot of trust for public statements from either side. It's possible of course that the Russian story is incomplete, and they don't have all the information, and nobody is intentionally lying. Syrian incompetence, or inherent problems in their system are definitely the culprit, the only question is whether Russia's allegation that the Israelis exploited this in a dangerous manner that put the Russian aircraft in the line of fire is true.
The flip side of that is that I have read in a few places, like Al-Arabiya, that the Russian aircraft was flying over the Mediterranean Sea, about 35 km (~19 n miles) from the Syrian coast when contact was lost. That would put the Russian aircraft ~7 n miles outside of Syrian airspace, flying instead in international airspace.

Given that Al-Arabiya was reporting on information reported on by the Russian TASS news agency, which it (TASS) was saying they quoted from a ministry statement, that makes it sound like the Syrian GBAD systems were attempting to engage what they thought was a valid target in international airspace. If that was the actual situation, then that also suggests that the Syrian IADS might also engage other 'targets' in international airspace, which then opens up the potential for a civilian airliner flying over the eastern Med in international airspace to be engaged 'by accident' and shot down.

It is also quite possible that the Israeli aircraft flew close to the Russian IL-20 with the expectation that once the Israeli fighters got danger close, the Syrian GBAD ROE would hold off firing. If that was the expectation, then the Syrian ROE were not what Israel was expecting, or the GBAD system commander opted to ignore the standing ROE.

At this stage though, there is very little that we know, and what information has come out is of questionable accuracy.
 

gazzzwp

Member
Russia reaches the conclusion of 'criminal negligence' after the ll-20 shoot down.

‘Criminal negligence’ or disregard to Russia-Israel ties: MoD details chronology of Il-20 downing

That's serious talk by anyone's standards and even though Putin appeared to brush over it likely no doubt to keep the tension to a minimum one can't help but feel at the least there will be diplomatic retaliation. The question is does the rest of the world agree with Russia's conclusions? If you give children fireworks to play with sooner or later you may end up with one lit your own house.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears that a big part of Russia's accusations towards Israel stem from Israel breaking a 2015 agreement about advanced warning on strikes, for deconfliction purposes. In this case apparently Israel warned Russia 60 seconds out, not enough time to get Russian aircraft out of the line of fire. Substantively this seems to be a valid point. Of course whatever agreement Israel and Russia had wasn't particularly public to begin with. So while things could be inferred, it gets tricky. Israel isn't really denying this either, at least from what I've read so far. Russia's response to this is already in progress, with 4 Il-76 heavy transports delivering unknown cargo to Syria.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
RT isn't the most reliable source in the world and neither is Fox or any Murdoch owned media source, so I take both with a very large dose of salt.

In my mind blaming Israel carte blanche for the IL-20 loss is not right, but Israel is indirectly at fault because it provided the initial triggering event. From my own POV a large part of blame should be laid at the feet of the Syrian Air Defence Unit who authorised the firing of the missile, because they were the ones who were responsible for positively identifying the target. The only viable defence that I could see them having is that the IL-20 either didn't have their IFF transponder working, or it wasn't set correctly.

I wonder if those IL-76 Candids were delivering S-300 (S-400??) missiles and associated sensors etc., to the Syrian military? If so that will put a large very annoying burr under the Israeli (+ US & Coalition) seats. That most definitely would be one way for Putin to show his displeasure and there's nothing Israel, the US or anyone else can really do about it, except gnash their teeth, tear their hair and render their clothing. To attack the missiles would be an act of war, pure and simple and whilst casus belli could be reasoned (how would be interesting), it would be a very dangerous move. Such an attack could be deemed a war of aggression and it would give Syria Jus ad bellum, a right to war, in this case self defence, giving Syria and it's allies the moral, political and diplomatic high ground. If these flights are indeed deliveries of S-300 missiles to the Syrian military, I do hope that cooler heads prevail in Israel and elsewhere.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
RT isn't the most reliable source in the world and neither is Fox or any Murdoch owned media source, so I take both with a very large dose of salt.

In my mind blaming Israel carte blanche for the IL-20 loss is not right, but Israel is indirectly at fault because it provided the initial triggering event. From my own POV a large part of blame should be laid at the feet of the Syrian Air Defence Unit who authorised the firing of the missile, because they were the ones who were responsible for positively identifying the target. The only viable defence that I could see them having is that the IL-20 either didn't have their IFF transponder working, or it wasn't set correctly.
Russian military sources indicated that the export version of the S-200 doesn't come with the same IFF as the domestic one, so there would be no IFF to prevent the Syrians from targeting them. I have an article about this saved at home, I'll post it here later.

I wonder if those IL-76 Candids were delivering S-300 (S-400??) missiles and associated sensors etc., to the Syrian military? If so that will put a large very annoying burr under the Israeli (+ US & Coalition) seats. That most definitely would be one way for Putin to show his displeasure and there's nothing Israel, the US or anyone else can really do about it, except gnash their teeth, tear their hair and render their clothing. To attack the missiles would be an act of war, pure and simple and whilst casus belli could be reasoned (how would be interesting), it would be a very dangerous move. Such an attack could be deemed a war of aggression and it would give Syria Jus ad bellum, a right to war, in this case self defence, giving Syria and it's allies the moral, political and diplomatic high ground. If these flights are indeed deliveries of S-300 missiles to the Syrian military, I do hope that cooler heads prevail in Israel and elsewhere.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
What happens if instead of handing over the sensors to the Syrians, they're operated by Russia, and Russia declares parts of Syrian airspace to be no-fly zones for everyone? There are some unpleasant implications.

EDIT: I wrote Israelis, I meant Syrians. I was too tired.

EDIT2: Here's a source for the IFF info.

Минобороны объяснило роль системы «свой-чужой» в крушении Ил-20 в Сирии: Конфликты: Мир: Lenta.ru
 
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the concerned

Active Member
Whether you agree with Israel or not they have made it clear from day one what they will and will not accept . They have also made their response clear. So right now to safe guard Russian personnel Putin needs to stop Iran supplying Hezbollah with advanced weaponry .
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Whether you agree with Israel or not they have made it clear from day one what they will and will not accept . They have also made their response clear. So right now to safe guard Russian personnel Putin needs to stop Iran supplying Hezbollah with advanced weaponry .
What Israel wants and what it will or will not accept depends on various factors beyond its control; irrespective of how many strikes it launches. What it really wants is for the Iranians to have zero presence and involvement in Syria. This will never happen. Also, despite all the strikes and rhetoric there is a limit to how far Israel is willing to go. Strike too hard at Assad and the Russians might take certain measures. Strike too hard at the Iranians and the Iranians might takes certain measures elsewhere in retaliation. The next time an Israeli strikes occurs; if Russian personnel [on Syrian sovereign soil] are killed, Putin might react differently.

There is also the U.S. to consider. Yes it would still prefer for Assad to be gone and for the Iranians as well but the last thing it wants is Israel getting into a spot of trouble with the Russians. Also, a question that needs to be asked is whether Israeli strikes are really intended to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from having the ability to hit Israel or is intended to weaken Assad. One would think that Israel would rather have Assad stay in power [the devil it knows] rather than face uncertainty in the event that rebels [moderate or not] came to power.Israel however shares the sames goal as the Gulf Arabs; both want Assad gone and both want the Iranians weakened.
 
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