Coming into this late and Feanor may be able to answer this:
- Is there any political will in Russia at the moment to build CVs?
In principle, yes. However, whether this leads to an actual project is unclear.
- Considering funding requirements for the modernisation and re-equipping of all of the Russian military forces - that is naval ground, air and rocket, would new CVs be regarded as priority expenditure?
Hypothetically, yes, if the decision is made, they could be a priority. However the VMF has been cursed with a series of less then impressive commanders leading to utter chaos in planning and development. A long time ago (early 2000s) there was a clear though somewhat questionable image of the VMF's future; corvette - project 20380, frigate - project 22350, large landing ships - project 11711, destroyer - OKR "Leader", aircraft carrier of unknown design at a future date. This vision got sidetracked when 1) shipyards ended up massively delaying production of corvettes and frigates 2) a report in 2010 clearly showed that the Black Sea Fleet would be reduced to a green water flotilla + a single cruiser by 2020 if emergency actions weren't taken and 3) the requirements for the 22350 frigates and OKR Leader destroyers didn't get out of hand. With the 22350 this merely delayed the development cycle due to an over-ambitious SAM design (as well some troubles with Ukrainian engines
both before and after the 2014 crisis) but with OKR Leader poor planning really destroyed the project. It started out as a requirement for a destroyer, something that looked like it would turn out in the 8000-10000 tonn range but was quickly saddled with requirements for ASAT and a massive missile load, compounded by the lack of a viable conventional powerplant in production, and the result was a proposed nuclear-powered cruiser whose construction keeps getting pushed back. Meanwhile various VMF heads introduced pet projects like the 22160 patrol boats (better suited to the FSB Coast Guard fleet then the VMF, and in fact the FSB operates ships very similar to these), the Mistral purchase, the mass production of small missile ships as cruise missile platforms, etc. Some of these side projects are arguably a good idea and some of them fit with the original idea of the future VMF (though not the same ones
) but the end result has been that 22350 production is in the toilet, with only 2 produced and only 4 more under construction, the 677 subs delayed beyond all reason, and a new destroyer or heavy frigate based around the 22350M project, while the OKR Leader continues to plug away at meeting all of the VMF requirements with proposed production allegedly now scaled down to merely 8 units and this is before any metal has even been cut.
Buried within this giant mess are 3 catastrophic problems, areas in which the VMF is deficient beyond all reason; namely 1) ASW 2) minesweeping and 3) torpedoes. ASW is currently stuck in the late 70s, technologically speaking with less then 10 Il-38N aircraft offering anything beyond that, with the very limited Novella complex (nothing anywhere near the capabilities of the USN, or the Japanese for example). Minesweeping is even worse off, it's not only stuck in the late 70s but there's also no end in sight. There is a production run of new minesweepers going with a French USV being tested for them, but it physically doesn't fit on the ships, and their own organic gear is sub-par. Basically a whole program will have to be run to equip these ships, and to the best of my knowledge it's not even begun. With torpedoes the situation is marginally better as the
relatively modern Fizik torpedoes have finally began to arrive in VMF arsenals. However the VMF subs badly lack training with torpedoes, and even these new torpedoes have an antiquated control system. In this area Russian industry does offer better solutions but it appears that lobbying along with notorious levels of corruption have led to the funny but sad situation where Russia exported torpedoes with better controls to China in the early 2000s then what the VMF is purchasing for its own use now.
On top of this the 11711s have been redesigned to the point where what they're producing on the 3rd and 4th hulls are essentially whole new ships with some similarities, the project for upgrading Soviet era nuke subs, or even keeping them operational through overhauls, has hit production delays on par with the corvette and frigate programs back in the 2000s, and there is now an ongoing program for upgrading the Soviet 1155 destroyers with modern missile systems, due to the lack of a new destroyer.
Unfortunately the answer to your question is a qualified yes. While, in my opinion, a new CV
should not be a priority project, it's entirely possible, likely even, that if a decision is made by yet another VMF head, and gets enough publicity/visibility from political leadership, then it would become a priority, to the detraction of other programs. It would likely take forever to build, have maintenance issues like its predecessor, and would likely be a single vessels, maybe two if the economy does well, and the politicians push hard. The same way that OKR Leader has morphed into a Kirov battlecruiser replacement, against all sense and reason.
- Does Russia consider the VMF surface fleet as a regional or global force?
Think that about covers it. I believe those are the questions that need answering before any talk of new Russian CVs gets into the nitty gritty of shipyards etc.
Global. Definitely global. Though their ability to meet this consideration is questionable.
The reason the shipyard question matters is because of what I wrote above. If a VMF chief gets it into their head that they
must have a carrier to replace the Kuznetsov, and there is a yard that (wanting the work and the money) says "we can do this" and can at least plausibly show that they might be able to do it, the project could get a green light at the very top, and end up as a priority for the next 15 years, eating huge resources that are badly needed elsewhere.
