Russia-Georgia Conflict: News From the War zone

[Grand Danois]

They don't care. SO is a small 3rd world region with no significance and small population. They're essentially considered a casualty of collateral damage, on the road to bringing Georgia in to the west.

I'd think you may be putting things on a point. The West were chancing on that over time some sort of autonomy could be made. SO will be disconnected even as a part of Russia - and surrounded by Georgia on all other sides, it's too geographically isolated. Saakashvili blew it big time. Russia haven't been helpful though, keeping the pot at a slow boil. Divide and rule.

A wrong strategy of the West, or the Bush admin in particular, would have been to arm Georgia to a degree that they got tempted to go all out.

 

[Feanor]

Hehe. To be honest I appreciate that Israel opted to stop selling Georgia arms last year. Iirc the Georgians were looking to buy Merkava's. That would have made a mess of the T-62/T-72B's that the 19th and 42nd had. As for Bush, I think he made a fairly rational assumption thinking that Georgia won't risk attacking Russia (which is essentially what it amounted to with the peacekeeper units in the conflict zone). Saakashvili made a gamble with NATO memebership as the prize, and it looks like he blew it.

 

[Grand Danois]

Don't think the Israelis would have been very happy with their Merkavas ending up as Russian war booty.

If the Georgians had stayed their ground, they could have made an equal mess with ATGMs, mines, mortars. Mountanous terrain, funneling of an advancing enemy...

 

[Feanor]

Well I guess it would come down to (which we still don't know) whether CAS was called in by commanders on the ground, or whether airstrikes were centrally directed. With ample tactical strike, the Georgians would have had no chance. There are 3 regiments of Frogfoots in the N. Caucus MD. More then in any other MD. The problem of course is that the Georgians weren't entrenched, they were quickly advancing over S. Ossetia. They didn't have prepared positions, and weren't ready for the Russian forces. Plus of course their leadership panicked. I guess it would have depended on just how well trained the Georgian army is. Do you have any info on how their American instructors rate them?

 

[chris]

First allow me ...
Stans?)

You are looking at the tactic and you are missing the strategic. What does Russia has to gain by annexing SO and ABK? Absolutely nothing. It can only loose. Let me explain.

SO is a direct parallel of Kosovo. A land locked country, dominated by crime and close to strategic energy paths. Russia can annex it anytime. But that way you loose the moral face of your politics. Why not mirror Kosovo instead? Let them "rule" themselves and build a nice big military base on their soil? The result is the same.

ABK is another story. What is in stake there is coastline and harbours. The major slice in the coast though is Poti. As long as ABK is a small weak country then you can "pretend" that you are guarding a buffer zone and control it. Annex ABK and you become an occupier in Poti.

You may object that Russia is already an occupier but believe me, this is only the "official" west point of view. Just read the comments by readers in major west media and you'll see who is winning hearts and souls.

 

[Grand Danois]

Do you have any info on how their American instructors rate them?

Uhm. Not something that I use as basis for this battle.

If they were advancing into SO on a whim, planning would have been less than optimal and leadership disorganised, objectives unclear...

The American instructors are probably in Georgia to train the GA for the Iraq mission, which is different than waging a fast, intense, coordinated maneuver battle to "get there before the enemy". In which case the air support the Russians had available could be enough. (yeah, I'm kinda vague, it's my take.)

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Don't think the Israelis would have been very happy with their Merkavas ending up as Russian war booty.

If the Georgians had stayed their ground, they could have made an equal mess with ATGMs, mines, mortars. Mountanous terrain, funneling of an advancing enemy...

I agree. The Georgians were defeated on a psychological level before too much real fighting took place, and they weren't defeated by the Russians. The terrain down there coupled with the piecemeal manner in which the Russians advanced, the relative inefficiency of the VVS (AFAIK only 1 PGM was used in the entire conflict, on Poti IIRC) and the (lack of) quality of their equipment combine to make a situation that a talented commander with any real grasp of defensive operations (leading determined and prepared units) could have exploited to the utmost. If the Georgians had really fought for South Ossetia and had counted on thus planned for Russian intervention, the 19th and 42 may have suffered 10x the casualties they actually did (reducing them to a level of non combat viability). But in reality as soon as the Georgians knew they were fighting the big bad Russians (who are the heirs to the Soviet Union and have been the dominant power for the last 500 years) and saw their aircraft overhead unchallenged the gig was up and the army broke into a rout. IMHO the Russian commander was lucky, the Georgians defeated themselves.

 

[Grand Danois]

You are looking at the tactic and you are missing the strategic. What does Russia has to gain by annexing SO and ABK? Absolutely nothing. It can only loose. Let me explain.

SO is a direct parallel of Kosovo. A land locked country, dominated by crime and close to strategic energy paths. Russia can annex it anytime. But that way you loose the moral face of your politics. Why not mirror Kosovo instead? Let them "rule" themselves and build a nice big military base on their soil? The result is the same.

Except that a military base in Kosovo dominates nothing of importance. A military base in SO dominate Georgia totally.

Russia went all out for the reasons I explained in the post you responded to.

ABK is another story. What is in stake there is coastline and harbours. The major slice in the coast though is Poti. As long as ABK is a small weak country then you can "pretend" that you are guarding a buffer zone and control it. Annex ABK and you become an occupier in Poti.

I'm a bit unsure of what you mean...

You may object that Russia is already an occupier but believe me, this is only the "official" west point of view. Just read the comments by readers in major west media and you'll see who is winning hearts and souls.

Nobody here has suggested that Russia is seen as an occupier in SO or ABK. This is not the "official" nor the "unofficial" view in the West.

 

[Grand Danois]

Ozzy,

Agree. Psychology and that they were not really prepared for it.

Addendum: There is also the not so small detail that the inhabitants of So were hostile to the GA - IOW they could report GA postions and ambushes to the Russian army. Much different from e.g. the war in S lebanon in 2006.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Well I guess it would come down to (which we still don't know) whether CAS was called in by commanders on the ground, or whether airstrikes were centrally directed. With ample tactical strike, the Georgians would have had no chance. There are 3 regiments of Frogfoots in the N. Caucus MD. More then in any other MD. The problem of course is that the Georgians weren't entrenched, they were quickly advancing over S. Ossetia. They didn't have prepared positions, and weren't ready for the Russian forces. Plus of course their leadership panicked. I guess it would have depended on just how well trained the Georgian army is. Do you have any info on how their American instructors rate them?

It takes more than having the assets in theater to achieve tangible effects in the battle space. Without real ISTAR capability 3 regiments (which equates closely to 3 over strength western squadrons) aren't going to have a dramatic effect, especially considering the level of precision they can (or can not) apply.

Even without well prepared defensive positions with the mountainous terrain and the restrictive nature of the logistics down there (i.e. limited MSR's) proper maneuver and determined/well trained units could have caused havoc to the advancing Russians. The Georgians would have enjoyed the logistical advantage even under Russian air power. AFAIK there is only 1 MSR into South Ossetia from the north and would have been awfully hard to use in the face of reasonable arty.

I think the psychological aspect was a huge element in the Georgian collapse.

 

[eaf-f16]

Don't think the Israelis would have been very happy with their Merkavas ending up as Russian war booty.

If the Georgians had stayed their ground, they could have made an equal mess with ATGMs, mines, mortars. Mountanous terrain, funneling of an advancing enemy...

Mountainous terrain? ATGM's? Mines? The funneling of advancing amour?

Do you mean exactly like Hezbollah?

 

[Grand Danois]

Venezuela does... not recognize SO & ABK.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080829/ts_nm/georgia_ossetia_venezuela_dc

But I think they will in time.

 

[Grand Danois]

Mountainous terrain? ATGM's? Mines? The funneling of advancing amour?

Do you mean exactly like Hezbollah?

Oooh. Beat you to it. See post 429. However, the Israelis are a much different foe than the GA or the Russians.

 

[Ozzy Blizzard]

Mountainous terrain? ATGM's? Mines? The funneling of advancing amour?

Do you mean exactly like Hezbollah?

Big difference. Your comparing paramilitary to actual military units. + the terrrain is different, much less urbanized, as are the combatants.

 

[Firehorse]

Except that a military base in Kosovo dominates nothing of importance.

It safeguards the "Trans-Balkan pipeline", which, in the near future, is supposed to carry the same Caspian oil !
http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0215-05.htm

Kosovo does not have oil but its location is strategic as the trans-Balkan pipeline - known as AMBO pipeline after its builder and operator the US-registered Albanian Macedonian Bulgarian Oil Corporation - will pass through it. ..June 1999, in the immediate aftermath of the bombing of Yugoslavia, US forces seized 1,000 acres of farmland in southeast Kosovo at Uresevic, near the Macedonian border, and began the construction of Camp Bondsteel which is the biggest construction project of a US military base since the war in Vietnam. Now, why would the United States build such a massive camp in Kosovo?
In evaluating Kosovo’s independence, it is also important to know that Kosovo is not gaining independence or even minimal self-government.
It will be run by an appointed High Representative and bodies appointed by the U.S., European Union and NATO. An old-style colonial viceroy and imperialist administrators will have control over foreign and domestic policy. It is similar to the absolute power held by L. Paul Bremer in the first two years of the U.S. occupation of Iraq. U.S. has merely consolidated its direct control of a totally dependent colony in the heart of the Balkans.
http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m41436&hd=&size=1&l=e

So, the Russians are counterbalancing NATO in the Balkans by truncating Georgia. Those areas will serve as buffer states/zones, to protect Russia's Southern flank, and will make it easier to control the oil flow from Caspian/Central Asia. If the West can have Russia surrounded by military bases and BMD network, the assimetric responce is to do what we just witnessed!

From Russia's point of view, carving out Georgia into separate territories is the proper antidote to NATO's planned expansion, to offset the US's growing encroachment, and a clear warning to neighboring states, such as Azerbaijan and Ukraine, to refrain from cozying up to US or NATO.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH30Ag01.html

From the https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gg.html :
Population:
4,630,841 (July 2008 est.)
Ethnic groups:
Georgian 83.8%, Azeri 6.5%, Armenian 5.7%, Russian 1.5%, other 2.5% (2002 census)
Georgia's complete ethnic group list:
http://www.christusrex.org/www1/pater/ethno/Geor.html

Ethnic Minorities in Georgia
http://www.sakartvelo.com/Files/Conflicts/minorities.html
Well, Abkhasians and Ossetians are not in Georgia anymore!

 

[Grand Danois]

It safeguards the "Trans-Balkan pipeline", which, in the near future, is supposed to carry the same Caspian oil !
http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0215-05.htm

I knew someone would come up with that pipeline.

It would be cheaper to build an alternative one, instead of having troops guarding it. much much cheaper. And there plenty of ways to do it.

Conspiracy theory territory.

 

[eckherl]

Hehe. To be honest I appreciate that Israel opted to stop selling Georgia arms last year. Iirc the Georgians were looking to buy Merkava's. That would have made a mess of the T-62/T-72B's that the 19th and 42nd had. As for Bush, I think he made a fairly rational assumption thinking that Georgia won't risk attacking Russia (which is essentially what it amounted to with the peacekeeper units in the conflict zone). Saakashvili made a gamble with NATO memebership as the prize, and it looks like he blew it.

I really do not think that it would of mattered what type of heavy armor that Georgia had, the tanks that were in use were fully capable of at least standing their ground, Georgian training and tactics were not even close of taking on a meeting engagement with a opponent with the likes of Russia. The U.S advisors were not surprised at all with the outcome of this.

 

[eaf-f16]

Oooh. Beat you to it. See post 429. However, the Israelis are a much different foe than the GA.

Hehe. Yeah, you did. I was asking for confirmation to explain that this was a very bad comparison.

Big difference. Your comparing paramilitary to actual military units. + the terrrain is different, much less urbanized, as are the combatants.

Really? I was the one who was comparing?

Anyways, the environment where Hezbollah and the IDF were fighting in isn't at all urban. You make it sound like they were fighting in the middle of towns and cities or something (they fought for control of villages sometimes, I'll give you that). Most of the fighting was in rural areas or in valleys.

 

[eckherl]

It takes more than having the assets in theater to achieve tangible effects in the battle space. Without real ISTAR capability 3 regiments (which equates closely to 3 over strength western squadrons) aren't going to have a dramatic effect, especially considering the level of precision they can (or can not) apply.

Even without well prepared defensive positions with the mountainous terrain and the restrictive nature of the logistics down there (i.e. limited MSR's) proper maneuver and determined/well trained units could have caused havoc to the advancing Russians. The Georgians would have enjoyed the logistical advantage even under Russian air power. AFAIK there is only 1 MSR into South Ossetia from the north and would have been awfully hard to use in the face of reasonable arty.

I think the psychological aspect was a huge element in the Georgian collapse.

Spot on Ozzy, darn near everytime they heard aircraft overhead they bailed out of their vehicles and ran for cover. Air attacks played a major factor of demoralizing the Georgian forces along with lack of communications, some units were even relying on cell phones for some type of instructions.

 

[Firehorse]

I knew someone would come up with that pipeline.
It would be cheaper to build an alternative one, instead of having troops guarding it. much much cheaper. And there plenty of ways to do it.
Conspiracy theory territory.

Please be more specific: where? Since this is off topic, you may PM me or post your reply on some other related tread. Thanks!