Philippine Air Force Discussions and Updates

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This you tubers video seems frm some Pinoy that claim using Max Defense source. Basically it talk on PAF process for Multi Role Fighters (MRF), that switch from F-16V to Gripen C/D.

In short this video claims that the MRF budget of USD 1.3 bio or 61 bio Philipine Pesos. That budget can't reach 71 bio pesos offer from LM. The other option of more FA-50 or Gripen being revisited, then Gripen is the choice.

It's not official yet on this choice of MRF, and we know how Pinoy can change their defense procurement policies faster then anyone in region. However despite this video obvious claim on benefits of Gripen operation for PAF, for me they should used the money for more FA-50. Add another 24 of FA-50, add more GCI Radar to improve radar coverage of Philipines. They need more Patrol capabilities, and more FA-50 can be more beneficials.

Anyway just entertaining video in my opinion on recent drama in Philipines defense procurement.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Suddenly, their defense minister confirmed that there is no money for multi-role fighers, corvettes and OPVs.
This's really raise question on Philippines Administration willingness to build their own security. It will raise question in future whose vendors will take seriously on future Philippines defense procurement project.

COVID create havoc on every government globally. Any defense projects got push either a year or two due to COVID. However there's many fiscal financing ways to lock your procurement plan, even with some delay happen. This off course if they serious with their own defense program.

Even with budget issue, if they're serious, they still can try another LCA squadron instead talking on MRCA. They can go with another squadron of 12 FA-50 and some OPV instead of Corvettes. There will be ways finding more affordable specs for OPV or choose FFBNW path or finding more price friendly vendors. Those if they are serious on developing their own capabilities.

Philippines economy and budget is large enough to do step by step approach. However this talk on delay while keep talking/promising on procuring premium fighters for example, is simply non commitment steps for their own defense development. They simply given false hope to their own citizen.

I'm really irritated with that announcement by Lorenzana. They really playing their own constituents, what kind of behavior that Philippines administration have this days. I'm very critical sometimes with Indonesian current administration, but this behavior by Philippines administration, really beyond my comprehension. Their own citizen now that being threatened in their own water. This administration just send the massage, that's not their problem.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
not official yet on this choice of MRF, and we know how Pinoy can change their defense procurement policies faster then anyone in region.

MaxDefense speculating on PAF begin silent operation to switch again. This's if really happening shown again how "fluid" the Pinoy handling their defense planning. From Gripen to Viper, and now to Gripen again.

Despite all the drama, that always raise question on Duterte administration seriousness on building Philippines defense. I still think under current condition face by Philippines (on budget and security consideration in SCS), they better use the money for another 12 FA-50.

Gripen C/D will provide more capabilities, that's no argument on that. Gripen with similar engine with FA-50 also provide better logistics foot prints (compared to Viper). However they need more Airframes at this moment. Another 12 FA-50 will also eased PAF operational budget to maintain. KAI also already provide modules that even enable FA-50 for BVR capabilities. But more importantly more Airframes, provide more presences. This can provide better massage on Pinoy willingness to provide defense coverage on their own territory.

Then again, nobody can bet when Duterte will be serious in defense building.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The Philippine Airforce has shortlisted the Swedish 'Gripen' as their next fighter aircraft.

Unable To Buy The F-16, The Philippines Officially Buys The Gripen - YouTube
Thank you for sharing.
But how reliable is this "Force Technology "?
It seems to be runned by a Saab-fan.

Edit:
Oh wait, ive found something.
 

tonnyc

Well-Known Member
Officially the Philippine Department of National Defense had not made up their mind which fighter jets they are buying. On September their secretary of defense Lorenzana said it's unlikely they will get the F-16 due to budget issues. That's probably the basis of the YouTube video pussertas linked and the article from Global Defence Corp that Sandi Yudha linked. However, a few months earlier, in June, the US State Department approved the possible sale of F-16 to the Philippines, indicating that talks for the F-16 proceeded further than for Gripen. There had been no equivalent news from the Swedish government.

I believe the Philippines government is trying to wheedle down the F-16 price. From the linked PNA article above:
He said the only way the Philippines can acquire F-16 jet fighters is through a favorable "financing scheme" by the US.
I interpret that as "gimme discount or I go to next door store".

Either way I don't have much hope that a contract will be signed until the next administration. Multiple internal factors make it unlikely, many of which has been discussed in this thread. Among them are a budget that is too small for new fighters jets while forbidding the acquisition of used defense systems and the president's dislike of F-16 and America in general clashing with the Air Force's preference for F-16 and continued cooperation with the US. It's not impossible to get over those obstacles, but I am not confident that the current Philippines government wants to make the effort.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


Philippines MinDef put couple announcement recently. Few days ago on the budget approval for more Black Hawks and 6 OPV (Austal Philippines seems going to bag the deal).

Yesterday they announced that the DP for MI-17V will be commencing soon. This is quite interesting also to see how US going to react under CAATSA. Eventough it's much smaller scale then Indian deal, but it's still interesting to watch US reaction.

Will US give leeway if they also already got bigger deals? Will Biden going to remake Trump CAATSA deal in the time of Russian-Ukraine tension increasing? Or will US give leeway for countries in Asia that they deemed important for China containment (thus override Russian factor)?

Anyway by end of his term, Duterte seems getting more serious for Philippines Armed Forces rebuilding. Something that he should done 6 years ago. Hope this not just another election gimmick (for the benefit of his chosen successors).
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yesterday they announced that the DP for MI-17V will be commencing soon. This is quite interesting also to see how US going to react under CAATSA. Eventough it's much smaller scale then Indian deal, but it's still interesting to watch US reaction.

Will US give leeway if they also already got bigger deals? Will Biden going to remake Trump CAATSA deal in the time of Russian-Ukraine tension increasing? Or will US give leeway for countries in Asia that they deemed important for China containment (thus override Russian factor)?
As a formal ally, the Philippines should not only face sanctions (as they are not an existing user of Russian helicopters), the US should also consider stopping aid and place Duterte’s supporters on notice that they can no longer travel to the US.

At the very least, the US should embargo the supply parts to existing equipment (like their new Blackhawk and AH-1S helicopters) to punish the Pinoys. If the US don’t express disapproval, Team Biden is weak minded.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
As a formal ally, the Philippines should not only face sanctions (as they are not an existing user of Russian helicopters), the US should also consider stopping aid and place Duterte’s supporters on notice that they can no longer travel to the US.

At the very least, the US should embargo the supply parts to existing equipment (like their new helicopters) to punish the Pinoys. If the US don’t express disapproval, Team Biden is weak minded.
Coming with sanctions and embargoes, can bring Duterte back to his path of being Beijing's little doggy.

I understand you dislike Russia quite a lot, but whats wrong with buying some Russian helicopters? These articles don't give any amounts of Mi-17s, but it is unlikely that the order will be larger than the 16 + 32 UH-60/S-70.

Refusing to deliver spareparts of Philippines' existing equipment, like their Bells, Sikorskies and C-130s, will undoubtly result in the cancellation of the new order of 32. It will also make the Philippines regret to buy american products and will be a confirmation for Duterte and his supporters that the US is an unreliable supplier of defence equipment.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
This is quite interesting also to see how US going to react under CAATSA. Eventough it's much smaller scale then Indian deal, but it's still interesting to watch US reaction.
Indeed. My gut feeling is that the U.S. will let it slip. Viewed in totality it makes no strategic sense to sanction a U.S. ally over a sale of a batch of utility helis; especially given the current geo political situation in the region; the part the Philippines plays and the fact that the U.S. is keen on building on existing relationships rather than unnecessary and counterproductive moves to alienate anyone. Sanctioning the Philippines over CAATSA will make the Chinese happy. Also; the Philippines may not be a NATO ally and is one which - like any bilateral relationship - has up it ups and downs with the U.S. but there is strong historical connection and there will be elements n the U.S. government which will be opposed to sanctioning the country.

Coming with sanctions and embargoes, can bring Duterte back to his path of being Beijing's little doggy.
Well I wouldn't go that far; especially since he's on his way out but sanctions would indeed send the wrong message to the country and it would be contrary to U.S. interests as a whole. Also; irrespective of Durtete's feelings towards Uncle Sam and irrespective of feelings many Filipinos have over certain aspects of the period when the U.S. had bases in the country; the majority of Filipinos view the U.S. in a positive light; there is a level of affinity.

It will also make the Philippines regret to buy american products
They might be forced to buy Chinese and China would be extremely grateful to the Americans for that.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 2: The Philippines a friend or enemy?

Coming with sanctions and embargoes, can bring Duterte back to his path of being Beijing's little doggy.
1. No matter what the Americans do, in aid delivery or in military assistance, President Duterte is in China’s pocket. I think it will be clearer to ASEAN that being a client state of China does not protect the Pinoys from CCP demands. It’s an opportunity for ASEAN to learn the real nationalistic face of China, when it comes to competing claims in the South China Sea.

2. IMHO, the Pinoys are not an American ally — it is the same as Pakistan; a friend-cum-enemy to the Americans. The Pinoys claim Sabah, so they behave like an enemy to Malaysia.

I understand you dislike Russia quite a lot, but whats wrong with buying some Russian helicopters? These articles don't give any amounts of Mi-17s, but it is unlikely that the order will be larger than the 16 + 32 UH-60/S-70.
3. I don’t dislike the Russians — their missiles and rockets are pretty good and cheap. Plus they are an oil and gas exporter.
(a) As I see it, the wiring of the Mi-17 is so poor, when you turn on a navy ship’s radar, the interference is massive. It’s two Klimov TV3-117VM turboshaft engines are simple to maintain but some of its electronics sub-systems are dated technology when compared to other helicopter engines.​
(b) From an objective standpoint, I don’t want a weaker ASEAN that cannot defend itself — buying Russian weapons does that (especially since it encourages more corruption in the local procurement system) — given that China has access to the same weapons, they have developed electronic warfare counter measures to Russian weapons and platforms.​
4. Originally, the PAF's Technical Working Group decided that the CH-47F Chinook was the only helicopter that met the PAF's requirements. But this was overturned by the Department of National Defense, which asked the PAF to reconsider its specifications due to political reasons.
(a) Negotiations with Russia's Rosoboronexport commenced in 2018, although issues related to CAATSA was deemed to be an obstacle. According to MaxDefense Philippines, it was the president himself that pushed the PAF to reconsider.​
(b) The Mi-17 is actually a medium lift helicopter. I don’t know why the PAF decided to use the Heavy Lift Helicopter Acquisition Project as it means to acquire the Mi-17.​
(c) Looks like the Philippines military procurement processes will never be seen as credible. Buying Russian increases the level of corruption in their corrupt system. It is bad for them. Make stupid geo-political decisions, win stupid prices.​

Refusing to deliver spareparts of Philippines' existing equipment, like their Bells, Sikorskies and C-130s, will undoubtly result in the cancellation of the new order of 32. It will also make the Philippines regret to buy american products and will be a confirmation for Duterte and his supporters that the US is an unreliable supplier of defence equipment.
5. I think the Pinoys should switch and cancel the VFA, so that when shooting starts, there is no American obligation to help them. Keeping in mind that the Pinoys shot and murdered a Taiwanese fisherman in the South China Sea.

6. I do not want the superpowers to go down a path to war over nothing of value to other countries that use the South China Sea for trade and other purposes. Pinoy inability to enforce EEZ claims is their problem, not ASEAN’s. ASEAN needs to stop loss (and stop standing by the Pinoys).

7. Under Duterte’s reign, we see the Philippines becoming more corrupt and I hold the view that the Americans have to stop loss, in aid and development efforts in a basket case.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
The Pinoys claim Sabah, so they behave like an enemy to Malaysia.
Malaysia does not see it that way. Sure they have an outstanding claim over Sabah and it's something no Filipino President can officially drop [Ramos tried] because his opponents [for political mileage] would crucify him/her but they are not actively pursuing the claim. Apart from the usual rhetoric and politically driven proposals; they aren't doing much more. As it stands the Sabah issue only resonates with Tausugs; the average Filipino in Luzon, the Visayas, Mindanao and other parts of the country remains largely indifferent. Another point to note is that whilst many Tausugs want an independent Sabah; many don't want it to be part of the Philippines but an independent entity.

Intel provided by the Filipinos on certain groups in the Suu archipelago have been useful in supplementing whatever HUMINT assets Malaysia has in the area [as you're aware Malaysia has had an involvement there going back to the 1970's] and to be fair increased patrols by the Philippines navy and police have made it harder for non state actors in large groups to leave Philippines for Malaysia. Until a time comes when or rather if the Philippines government actually provides material aid to non state groups and provides them with assistance to infiltrate Malaysia; the Philippines is not viewed as an enemy by Malaysia who will continue to view the Sabah issue as a irritant and possible source of tensions but nothing more.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
1. No matter what the Americans do, in aid delivery or in military assistance, President Duterte is in China’s pocket. I think it will be clearer to ASEAN that being a client state of China does not protect the Pinoys from CCP demands. It’s an opportunity for ASEAN to learn the real nationalistic face of China, when it comes to competing claims in the South China Sea.

2. IMHO, the Pinoys are not an American ally — its the same as Pakistan; a friend-cum-enemy to the Americans. The Pinoys claim Sabah, so they behave like an enemy to Malaysia…



6. I do not want the superpowers to go down a path to war over nothing of value to other countries that use the South China Sea for trade and other purposes. Pinoy inability to enforce EEZ claims is their problem, not ASEAN’s. ASEAN needs to stop loss (and stop standing by the Pinoys).

7. Under Duterte’s reign, we see the Philippines becoming more corrupt and I hold the view that the Americans have to stop loss, in aid and development efforts in a basket case.
I understand that the US should think twice about giving aid for free to a unreliable and corrupt government, like Duterte's one. But exporting just means cash flow and jobs for america's defence industry.

Besides that, the aid and cooperation are also done with those terrorist groups in South-Philippines in mind.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
aid for free to a unreliable and corrupt government, like Duterte's one.
There will always be corruption in the Philippines and other places; as long as the corruption does not interfere directly with it's interests and other areas; the Americans can be very selective; just like how they are with democracy and human rights in certain countries.

Also; Duterte is on his way out. Why complicate matters unnecessarily for the next government coming to power; a government which America will seek good relations with and vice versa.

just means cash flow and jobs for america's defence industry.
Just like how the Iranians remain grateful to the Americans for toppling Saddam and creating the conditions for a Shia dominated government to take over in Iraq; Chinese and European companies will be extremely grateful for the Biden administration if the Philippines starts turning to Chinese and European stuff rather than American as a result of beings sanctioned under CAATSA.

the aid and cooperation are also done with those terrorist groups in South-Philippines in mind.
The Philippines is a former colony; there is a strong historical connection which exists till today; it was an important partner in the so call ''War On Terror'' [a misleading term I personally dislike]; it occupies a strategic location in an area of importance for America; the bulk of its citizens sees America in a good light, there are Philippines supporters in Congress or those who view it favourably because of historical or geo-political reasons; etc.

Unnecessarily alienating it for the sake of a few Mil-17;s which the Filipinos need; also has negative consequences for America and can be viewed as an interference in an internal Philippines matter with the Americans imposing their will on yet another country' Also; I'd like to see how America handles the Indian S-400 issue. Things have to be viewed in totality; not in isolation. There will be long term consequences for both countries; not just the Philippines. Also; there may have already been back door discussions between the Philippines and America countries.

As for the Mil-17; it may be dated and lagging in various areas compared to Western types but it is still a reliable/dependable platform which is affordable to cash constrained countries or those who don't require a more expensive and capable Western type. Many users worldwide [some of which don't have a proper support infrastructure or who operate from remote austere locations] value the Mil-17 for its ruggedness and simplicity compared to more complicated/sophisticated and expensive Western types. Yes it may not have a auto hover or a auto pilot as standard [perhaps new variants do]; the TBO/MTBF of its engines and other components might be shorter than Western equivalents and the Russians got into the glass cockpit business late but its still offers a pretty decent capability for what it costs. Ultimately it depends on what a particular end user needs.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 2: The Philippines a friend or enemy?

…As it stands the Sabah issue only resonates with Tausugs; the average Filipino in Luzon, the Visayas, Mindanao and other parts of the country remains largely indifferent. Another point to note is that whilst many Tausugs want an independent Sabah; many don't want it to be part of the Philippines but an independent entity.

Intel provided by the Filipinos on certain groups in the Suu archipelago have been useful in supplementing whatever HUMINT assets Malaysia has in the area..
8. Malaysia should take note of the latest development?
Malaysian police made arrests in Jan and Feb 2021 of 10 suspected ISIS-linked militants in Sandakan and Penampang districts, the latter in Sabah’s west coast.
(a) One of them was a Filipino trying to arrange the movement of militants to Zamboanga through Sandakan, Malaysian Inspector-General of Police Mohamad Fuzi Harun said in a statement at the time.​
(b) In Sabah, Esscom crippled two Abu Sayyaf clans. Not as easy to invade Sabah any more as all Sulu Sea islands used in 2013 incursion (as staging points), are now guarded by Esscom.​
(c) “There are many routes for Indonesian militants, but Sabah is one of the easiest due to several important factors,” said Yohanes Sulaiman, a security analyst and lecturer at Indonesia’s Jenderal Achmad Yani University. “The porous Indonesia-Malaysia border and more importantly the stronger connection between Sabah and Mindanao since both shared some close roots as they used to be part of the Sultanate of Sulu in southern Philippines, make Sabah the easy choice.”​

9. It seems that there was also a secret meeting of 19 mayors, where they discussed recruiting 600 men to invade the state and plans to send spies to scope out coastal towns, though no infiltration yet. I wonder if it has some connection with the 2022 election in Philippines.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Yes it's hit the news. Was mentioned in Parliament yesterday.

Well; the plot - if it existed - is not a secret anymore and I suspect is related to domestic Philippines politics. As for the 600 men who are supposedly being recruited; first of all it would take a lot of kumpits [it normally holds about 7-8 each]; it has to get past Philippines patrols in the area and it has to get past Malaysian patrols to land undetected/unopposed; hard to do as the Malaysians over the years have significantly improved their surveillance assets in the area. Maybe the plan is to take over a coastal town and create a Marawi type situation but the circumstances in Sabah are different; there are no towns with a large or majority Tausug population; no local support in the countryside with easily obtainable arms and compared to 2013 there is a much greater army and police presence in the area.

Another factor is that getting 600 men ready and out of Tawi-Tawi will be almost impossible to keep secret given that not only the Philippines government but others will have HUMINT assets in the area. If there's one thing the Malaysians are pretty experienced at it's HUMINT; from the days of the 2nd Emergency. A problem faced is that Tawi-Tawi is a MNLF stronghold; it used to have good ties with Malaysia but not after Nur Misuari was arrested and sent back. The MILF [the organisation] is Malaysia friendly but it's not based in the Tawi-Tawi area and it's not Tausug dominated.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The MILF [the organisation]
explicitly explained... :-D

But like Sturm said, even if those 600 rebels can land in Sabah undetected, it will be a useless suicide mission.
Creating a situation like in Marawi will be very unlikely these days, and they will achieve nothing with it.
 
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